US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135169 times)
patrick1
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« Reply #1000 on: March 24, 2012, 12:40:20 PM »
« edited: March 24, 2012, 12:41:59 PM by patrick1 »

Does anyone have a close up comparison between Slaughter's 1988 district and the 2012 district and how much additional territory is in the current one?

This has highlights by color and allows you to zoom in and out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html?ref=reapportionment

Edit, sorry missed 1988. Nope.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1001 on: March 24, 2012, 12:53:41 PM »

Yeah I have the 1992 district.

http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/maps/1992cong/c028.pdf

This is a 62% Obama district today that has ~598k people; it had ~580k in 1992.

http://tinypic.com/r/2n1evjc/5


Teal is the 1992 district, grey is the territory added to form the 2012 district. That territory is 51% McCain.
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Torie
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« Reply #1002 on: March 24, 2012, 01:16:11 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2012, 01:18:15 PM by Torie »

Does anyone have a close up comparison between Slaughter's 1988 district and the 2012 district and how much additional territory is in the current one?

Here is the 1988 CD, old NY-30, although I think a part of the city of Rochester itself was excised from it, but from the tiny map I have in my 1990 almanac, I am not sure, and have no way of drawing the boundary in the city of Rochester anyway. The CD went 54% to 45% for Bush pere in 1988, per the almanac stats.  Back then Slaughter was viewed as a superstar believe it or not. How times have changed. And as you can further see New York has viewed gerrymandering as an exercise in cutting edge abstract art for a very long time indeed. This map was from a Pub gerrymander, and this CD was drawn for Barber Conable, who then retired in 1984. He successor was a Pub named Fred Eckert, whom Slaughter beat in 1986 51%-49% due to his suck personality and political skills.

And there you have it! Smiley

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cinyc
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« Reply #1003 on: March 24, 2012, 07:56:21 PM »

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

Torie's exuberance is far from irrational.  No New York Congressman squawked louder about the new lines than Slaughter, even getting Nancy Pelosi in on the act.  Had she not done so, I'd agree with your assessment.  But Slaughter must know something, like how a countywide official elected under pretty much the same lines as the CD might give her a run for her money, enough so that she'd actually have to actively campaign - a process with which she is sorely out of practice for at least the last decade due to gerrymandering.  Beware of candidates who haven't had to run in a competitive race for a while.  They sometimes implode.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #1004 on: March 25, 2012, 12:07:26 AM »

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1005 on: March 25, 2012, 02:32:40 AM »

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.

Democrats already had their six year itch and more in 2010.  With Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate and the economy likely being pretty good, 2014 should be a pretty neutral year. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1006 on: March 25, 2012, 04:38:20 AM »

And as you can further see New York has viewed gerrymandering as an exercise in cutting edge abstract art for a very long time indeed. This map was from a Pub gerrymander
Yeah, that's pretty obvious. The most Democratic non-Rochester bits of Monroe are excised. Smiley
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1007 on: March 25, 2012, 10:21:29 AM »

Brooks margin as county executive fell in 2011, while she still won comfortably, it was reduced. Now, those are low turnout elections, where voters vote different based on local issues and issues that don't translate above that local level. She'll most likely do as well as Kay Barnes did in MO-6, a popular local official doing poorly in a congressional race. Republicans didn't unseat any Democratic incumbents in D+6 seats in 2010, it's hard to see how they do so in a presidential year.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #1008 on: March 25, 2012, 07:28:49 PM »

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.

Democrats already had their six year itch and more in 2010.  With Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate and the economy likely being pretty good, 2014 should be a pretty neutral year. 

If Obama is reelected, and the economy weakens again, we could see a result similiar to 1958 in the Senate.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1009 on: March 25, 2012, 08:47:33 PM »

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.

Democrats already had their six year itch and more in 2010.  With Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate and the economy likely being pretty good, 2014 should be a pretty neutral year. 

If Obama is reelected, and the economy weakens again, we could see a result similiar to 1958 in the Senate.

The yield curve is saying that the economy is going to be pretty strong until at least 2015.  Plus, Demcorats will have an unpopular, obstructionist Congress to run against in 2014, which Republicans didnt have in 1958.  Republicans are NOT picking up 13 seats in the Senate.  The most is maybe 6-7. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1010 on: March 26, 2012, 10:39:04 AM »

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/gop_dem_olition_man_in_senate_IKWFk2lNIO5jUoqYK9KkwN

Some key Senate Democrats, shocked by the apparent victory of Republican David Storobin in last week’s special election in Brooklyn, are privately conceding they have little chance of retaking control of the Senate in November.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1011 on: May 03, 2012, 12:54:14 PM »

anyone hear that Slaughter broke her foot? Hopefully she can serve one last term and then retire. Who would a good dem candidate be for the seat? Maybe Harry Bronson?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1012 on: May 03, 2012, 08:16:56 PM »

anyone hear that Slaughter broke her foot? Hopefully she can serve one last term and then retire. Who would a good dem candidate be for the seat? Maybe Harry Bronson?
She can't run?
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #1013 on: May 03, 2012, 10:16:11 PM »

anyone hear that Slaughter broke her foot? Hopefully she can serve one last term and then retire. Who would a good dem candidate be for the seat? Maybe Harry Bronson?
She can't run?

With a broken foot, I'd think running would be quite difficult. Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #1014 on: December 26, 2014, 11:08:38 AM »
« Edited: December 31, 2014, 05:16:58 PM by Torie »

In an idle moment, after the Pubs bagged three seats in NY in the last go round,I was wondering if it would ever be possible for the Pubs to get a majority of the House seats in NY.  They have nine, and needed fourteen, or five more. NY 2, NY-4, NY-18 are possible, and after the Pub came so close in Rochester, NY-25 is not impossible. However, that last one, NY-17, is a very steep climb indeed. So probably not. But wait a minute, if the Court had drawn that South Brooklyn seat, which it didn't, would that not it be possible then?  Should the court have drawn the seat? Was it possible to do so, hewing to the VRA (bearing in mind that Article 5 is now dead), and good redistricting principles (now I would like to think a bit older and wiser at it, and now no longer "fooled" by all this community of interest hype)? So I redrew one of my prior maps, and voila, it is. Indeed, the south Brooklyn seat would be by far the most Pub in NY, with a PVI of something like 10, believe it or not (56% McCain).

I wonder how my map would do in the little contest Muon2 is hosting for Virginia (not sure how erosity for intra-county lines is measured in that contest). I jiggled the lines on Long Island to minimize Town chops (Towns, not villages), as well as Borough chops in NYC.



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muon2
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« Reply #1015 on: December 26, 2014, 05:58:53 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2014, 06:25:05 PM by muon2 »

In an idle moment, after the Pubs bagged three seats in NY in the last go round,I was wondering if it would ever be possible for the Pubs to get a majority of the House seats in NY.  They have nine, and needed fourteen, or five more. NY 2, NY-4, NY-18 are possible, and after the Pub came so close in Rochester, NY-25 is not impossible. However, that last one, NY-17, is a very steep climb indeed. So probably not. But wait a minute, if the Court had drawn that South Brooklyn seat, which it didn't, would that not it be possible then?  Should the court have drawn the seat? Was it possible to do so, hewing to the VRA (bearing in mind that Article 5 is now dead), and good redistricting principles (now I would like to think a bit older and wiser at it, and now no longer "fooled" by all this community of interest hype)? So I redrew one of my prior maps, and voila, it is. Indeed, the south Brooklyn seat would be by far the most Pub in NY, with a PVI of something like 10, believe it or not (56% McCain).

I wonder how my map would do in the little contest Muon2 is hosting for Virginia (not sure how erosity for intra-county lines is measured in that contest). I giggled the lines on Long Island to minimize Town chops (Towns, not villages), as well as Borough chops in NYC.




Nothing strikes me as particularly unreasonable, particularly as you seem to hew to both towns and villages, which is good in my book. Within the boroughs I'd have to see how the lines match up with the official NYC community areas as that would be the natural neutral set of subunits.

As for how your keen mapping skills might fare compared to others, I can only suggest you add your thoughts on a VA redo.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #1016 on: January 08, 2015, 10:09:22 PM »

How do you think it will change now that they've created a commission to do it?

I think it could help the GOP, since the Dems won't be able to gerrymander anymore.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1017 on: January 09, 2015, 09:30:09 AM »

How do you think it will change now that they've created a commission to do it?

I think it could help the GOP, since the Dems won't be able to gerrymander anymore.

When did the Dems gerrymander New York other than the state assembly? Not in 2012 or in 2002, certainly.
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Torie
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« Reply #1018 on: January 11, 2015, 03:29:29 PM »
« Edited: January 11, 2015, 03:31:11 PM by Torie »

How do you think it will change now that they've created a commission to do it?

I think it could help the GOP, since the Dems won't be able to gerrymander anymore.

When did the Dems gerrymander New York other than the state assembly? Not in 2012 or in 2002, certainly.

Well, as a technical matter, the Dems gerrymandered in 2002 - hand in hand with the Pubs, in a rather disgusting display of incumbent protectionism, giving rise to the Slaughter barbell excrescence, and the Hinchey writhing serpentine affair. Slaughter was very sad to lose her barbell, as she whimpered about at least not getting Ithaca as a consolation prize. Turns out that she was near prescient to be worried. I am not sure the Dems have ever gerrymandered the NY CD's in a solo affair, which is most odd for such a Dem state. The Pubs have been incredibly lucky.
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