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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 50287 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #150 on: February 12, 2011, 01:32:55 am »
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I don't think the Democrats would ever agree to screw over Syracuse like that.

Someone has to get "screwed over" in Western/Central New York.  Under the current map, it's arguably the Rochester area - Monroe County is split among 4 districts.   In the next map, it's probably going to have to be Syracuse or Utica - Utica, by losing effective control of a House district or Syracuse/Onondaga County by being split up.  The population simply isn't there anymore.

JohnnyLongtorso's map is really ugly, but plausible.  Gibson and Tonko's districts seem to be a bit less compact than they probably have to be.  And I'd expect Hinchey's Gerrymandered monstrosity to somehow keep Newburgh in Orange County, if not also Middletown.
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« Reply #151 on: February 12, 2011, 12:09:46 pm »
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Well, take my districts. The white vote in the West Brooklyn district must have broken *roughly* even, perhaps tilted Democrat, and the same goes for the area in with the Staten district and presumably for the white territory marooned on the western end of the southern Black district.
And non-Hasidic whites in Williamsburg vote roughly like their counterparts in Manhattan.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/county/#NYH09p1


Brooklyn
9:53 a.m. EST, Nov 11, 2010
Weiner
(Incumbent)
14,599
52%
Turner
13,395
48%
100% of precincts reporting
Queens
9:53 a.m. EST, Nov 11, 2010
Weiner
(Incumbent)
32,405
62%
Turner
19,935
38%
100% of precincts reporting




That's 2010, obviously. I wonder how that district would do in an open seat situation.
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« Reply #152 on: February 12, 2011, 12:55:07 pm »
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I don't think the Democrats would ever agree to screw over Syracuse like that.
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« Reply #153 on: February 12, 2011, 01:31:26 pm »
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I don't think the Democrats would ever agree to screw over Syracuse like that.

Considering how the Syracuse area has screwed them over time and time again, I can't say it's impossible. (I still go WTF a little over 2010) Besides cinyc is right , some major county in west/central NY is going to get screwed.
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« Reply #154 on: February 12, 2011, 01:54:47 pm »
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Wouldn't it make more sense to give Slaughter a Rochester-Syracuse district?  It makes her district much safer, and opens up some of the more Republican parts of the Rochester area to help buffer NY-25 and NY-24.
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« Reply #155 on: February 12, 2011, 06:44:49 pm »
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Wouldn't it make more sense to give Slaughter a Rochester-Syracuse district?  It makes her district much safer, and opens up some of the more Republican parts of the Rochester area to help buffer NY-25 and NY-24.

I don't think there are any  Republicans in the Rochester area that are still in Slaughters district. Her current district is basically Rochester itself, and a strip along Lake Ontario to Niagara Falls. When they split LaFalce's Niagara based CD up, they wanted to keep the most Dem areas like Niagara Falls out of the new 26th which was to be held by Tom "Give me a district that will allow me to vote like a Southern Conservative" Reynolds.  


Do we really think that the Democrats in the Assembly who are mostly from NYC and downstate are going to give a rats ass about Syracuse. In the old days, when the GOP dominated both houses of the state legislature, they used to screw with the downstate area quite a lot. Now, I do beleive the city is represented by Republicans in the State Senate, which could add an interesting dynamic to things.


And keep in mind that Syracuse was split in two in the 1970s. Rochester was split between Horton and Conable/Slaughter untill the 1991. And Erie County has been split many ways over the decades. This will be the first time in many decades, that Buffalo will likely have one district that it shares with Niagara Falls. There is nothing new about splitting upstate cities.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2011, 08:04:31 pm by Senator North Carolina Yankee »Logged

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« Reply #156 on: February 12, 2011, 09:49:33 pm »
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Slaughter's CD takes in the black part of the city of Buffalo in Erie County.
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« Reply #157 on: February 12, 2011, 09:53:35 pm »
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Slaughter's CD takes in the black part of the city of Buffalo in Erie County.

Yes, that is true. My description above was slightly misleading but it served its purpose.
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« Reply #158 on: February 14, 2011, 02:38:52 pm »
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Drawing the most Republican version of the 13th possible, just for the lols. 65% McCain.
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« Reply #159 on: February 14, 2011, 03:44:09 pm »
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How much time did it take you to figure out how to draw that thing, Lewis?  Smiley
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« Reply #160 on: February 14, 2011, 04:12:40 pm »
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Not so very long. (Arguably you could take a further jump along the coast and include the Far Rockaway Hasidim too. I suppose you could get it up to 66%, possibly 67%.)
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« Reply #161 on: February 15, 2011, 01:43:06 pm »
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Wouldn't it make more sense to give Slaughter a Rochester-Syracuse district?  It makes her district much safer, and opens up some of the more Republican parts of the Rochester area to help buffer NY-25 and NY-24.

I don't think there are any  Republicans in the Rochester area that are still in Slaughters district. Her current district is basically Rochester itself, and a strip along Lake Ontario to Niagara Falls. When they split LaFalce's Niagara based CD up, they wanted to keep the most Dem areas like Niagara Falls out of the new 26th which was to be held by Tom "Give me a district that will allow me to vote like a Southern Conservative" Reynolds.  


Do we really think that the Democrats in the Assembly who are mostly from NYC and downstate are going to give a rats ass about Syracuse. In the old days, when the GOP dominated both houses of the state legislature, they used to screw with the downstate area quite a lot. Now, I do beleive the city is represented by Republicans in the State Senate, which could add an interesting dynamic to things.


And keep in mind that Syracuse was split in two in the 1970s. Rochester was split between Horton and Conable/Slaughter untill the 1991. And Erie County has been split many ways over the decades. This will be the first time in many decades, that Buffalo will likely have one district that it shares with Niagara Falls. There is nothing new about splitting upstate cities.

That was in response to the Idea above to just give Slaughter basically all of Monroe county, which has plenty of republican-leaning areas in it.
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« Reply #162 on: February 16, 2011, 06:29:12 pm »
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I still don't think the Democrats will throw throw away an easy pickup like Buerkle's seat
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cinyc
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« Reply #163 on: March 24, 2011, 08:21:22 pm »
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Here's the number of districts to which the various New York regions are entitled:

Long Island: 3.95
New York City: 11.39
Lower Hudson Valley: 1.90
Mid-Hudson Valley: 1.30
Albany: 1.76
North Country: 0.70
Southern Tier: 1.00
Central New York: 1.45
Rochester: 1.41
Western New York: 2.15

The ideal district size is 717,707.  If you start districting from Long Island, it needs to pull 5% of a district from New York City - about 36,000 residents.  NYC in turn will have 34% of a district to share with the Lower Hudson Valley (Westchester/Rockland/Putnam).  The Lower Hudson Valley will then have about a quarter of a district to push into the Mid-Hudson region, which I've defined to include the outer counties the NYC TV Market (Orange/Dutchess/Ulster/Sullivan).  That ends up giving those counties one full district and 54% of a district to be split up elsewhere.  Pushing that 54% up into the Albany region and then into the North Country would leave the other three regions of the state with almost exactly 6 full districts to be split among them.

Obviously, that's not necessarily how things will be done - Hinchey's district gets in the way of doing so - but should give an idea of how the math works.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2011, 08:36:03 pm by cinyc »Logged
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« Reply #164 on: March 24, 2011, 08:58:47 pm »
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I have a hard time believing urban immigrants were accurately counted.  I bet there's probably more new immigrants on a single tract or two in Flushing than foreclosed homes in all of Queens.
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« Reply #165 on: March 24, 2011, 10:44:38 pm »
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http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map?view=PopChangeView&lat=40.7606&lng=-73.974&l=14

NYT's beautiful map lets you sort by all the racial characteristics
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« Reply #166 on: March 25, 2011, 12:24:14 am »
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http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map?view=PopChangeView&lat=40.7606&lng=-73.974&l=14

NYT's beautiful map lets you sort by all the racial characteristics

Wow, thanks, great map, and it has the entire country, I'm going to spend so much time on this thing.
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cinyc
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« Reply #167 on: March 25, 2011, 12:45:13 am »
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I have a hard time believing urban immigrants were accurately counted.  I bet there's probably more new immigrants on a single tract or two in Flushing than foreclosed homes in all of Queens.

Flushing wasn't Queens' problem. Its population rose.  The problem was with blacks fleeing places like Springfield Gardens, Whites leaving places like Woodside and Astoria's population declining, perhaps due to gentrification.

I could spend hours looking at the NYT's maps - days if they had maps of percentage change in racial subgroups.  That's about all they are missing.
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« Reply #168 on: March 25, 2011, 12:53:17 am »
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Of course, my only point was that the huge immigrant surge almost certainly counter-balances whatever population loss has occurred.  Unlike Nevada or other parts of the country, there aren't neighborhoods in NYC filled with vacant lots. 
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« Reply #169 on: May 21, 2011, 02:56:34 pm »
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So all the talk of a potential Hochul win in NY-26 got me thinking as to how to give her a winnable district for 2012. And I never miss an opportunity to tinker with upstate New York. I drew the districts with the 2010 census numbers, then re-drew them in another browser with the old numbers so I could get the Obama/McCain totals (they're not exactly the same, since the 2008 data is in a shapefile that doesn't split smaller townships, but pretty close).



Blue - Brian Higgins has to stay put for the next decade for this map to work. He's locked down his district; all I did was pull in some not terrible parts of Cattaugurus County and a little more of Erie County. Remains unchanged at 54-44 Obama.
Green - Hochul winning would put her in this district, which takes all of the non-Erie parts of the Slaughtermander. Goes all the way from 52-46 McCain to 56-43 Obama.
Red - Tom Reed gets the safest Republican district in the state, eating up all the Republican parts of NY-26. Goes from 51-48 McCain to 55-43 McCain.
Purple - Slaughter gets a new gerrymander that picks up Auburn, Geneva, and Geneseo. Drops from 69-30 Obama down to 60-38 Obama, but that should be enough to keep it in Democratic hands.
Teal - NY-24 and NY-25 get combined, so Hanna and Buerkle duke it out here; Syracuse is pulled out of the district to help out Bill Owens. Goes from 51-48 Obama (for NY-24) or 56-43 Obama (for NY-25) to 50-49 Obama.
Yellow - Bill Owens adds Syracuse to his district and drops some Republican counties, and should be safe. Goes from 52-47 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Light Purple - Tonko's Albany-based district doesn't change a whole lot, it just stretches north instead of west now. Goes from 58-40 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Grey - A sprawling Republican district for Chris Gibson; goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-48 McCain.
Sky Blue - The Hincheymander remains, with a little more territory added. Doesn't change, still 59-39 Obama.
Magenta - Nan Hayworth has the northern borders of her district expanded a bit, and the Westchester portion contracted a bit. Goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-49 Obama.
Light Green - Nita Lowey retains a Westchester district, and it goes from 62-38 Obama to 63-37 Obama.
Light Purple (Rockland/Bronx) - Eliot Engel's district shifts upwards a bit to the suburbs, but remains safe Dem; goes from 72-28 Obama to 66-34 Obama.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2011, 03:19:35 pm by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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« Reply #170 on: May 21, 2011, 02:59:59 pm »
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Tonko lives in Amsterdam, which your NY-21 does not reach.
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« Reply #171 on: May 21, 2011, 03:19:59 pm »
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Tonko lives in Amsterdam, which your NY-21 does not reach.

Huh, I could have sworn he lived in Albany. Either way, it was easy to fix, and didn't change the numbers any.
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« Reply #172 on: May 25, 2011, 01:50:46 pm »
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So all the talk of a potential Hochul win in NY-26 got me thinking as to how to give her a winnable district for 2012. And I never miss an opportunity to tinker with upstate New York. I drew the districts with the 2010 census numbers, then re-drew them in another browser with the old numbers so I could get the Obama/McCain totals (they're not exactly the same, since the 2008 data is in a shapefile that doesn't split smaller townships, but pretty close).



Blue - Brian Higgins has to stay put for the next decade for this map to work. He's locked down his district; all I did was pull in some not terrible parts of Cattaugurus County and a little more of Erie County. Remains unchanged at 54-44 Obama.
Green - Hochul winning would put her in this district, which takes all of the non-Erie parts of the Slaughtermander. Goes all the way from 52-46 McCain to 56-43 Obama.
Red - Tom Reed gets the safest Republican district in the state, eating up all the Republican parts of NY-26. Goes from 51-48 McCain to 55-43 McCain.
Purple - Slaughter gets a new gerrymander that picks up Auburn, Geneva, and Geneseo. Drops from 69-30 Obama down to 60-38 Obama, but that should be enough to keep it in Democratic hands.
Teal - NY-24 and NY-25 get combined, so Hanna and Buerkle duke it out here; Syracuse is pulled out of the district to help out Bill Owens. Goes from 51-48 Obama (for NY-24) or 56-43 Obama (for NY-25) to 50-49 Obama.
Yellow - Bill Owens adds Syracuse to his district and drops some Republican counties, and should be safe. Goes from 52-47 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Light Purple - Tonko's Albany-based district doesn't change a whole lot, it just stretches north instead of west now. Goes from 58-40 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Grey - A sprawling Republican district for Chris Gibson; goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-48 McCain.
Sky Blue - The Hincheymander remains, with a little more territory added. Doesn't change, still 59-39 Obama.
Magenta - Nan Hayworth has the northern borders of her district expanded a bit, and the Westchester portion contracted a bit. Goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-49 Obama.
Light Green - Nita Lowey retains a Westchester district, and it goes from 62-38 Obama to 63-37 Obama.
Light Purple (Rockland/Bronx) - Eliot Engel's district shifts upwards a bit to the suburbs, but remains safe Dem; goes from 72-28 Obama to 66-34 Obama.


Made another attempt at the map, and succeeded in upping the numbers for the incumbents a little bit:



Blue (Higgins) - 55-44 Obama.
Green (Hochul) - 57-42 Obama.
Yellow (Reed) - 56-43 McCain.
Purple (Slaughter) - 61-38 Obama.
Teal (Hanna/Buerkle) - 49-49 McCain.
Red (Owens) - 57-42 Obama.
Grey (Tonko) - 59-40 Obama.
Light Purple (Gibson) - 49-49 McCain.
Sky Blue (Hinchey) - 58-40 Obama.
Magenta (Hayworth) - 50-49 Obama.
Light Green (Lowey) - 64-36 Obama.
Light Purple (Engel) - 66-34 Obama.
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« Reply #173 on: June 02, 2011, 09:43:23 am »
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Is Anthony Weiner saving Gary Ackerman's career?

Look at a map. Weiner's district should be the one to go.

Could they stretch NY-4 across the Rockaways, circling NY-6, and into the southern bits of NY-9? It makes sense to me. Give other parts of Brooklyn to NY-10, NY-11, and NY-8 on the one side and divide up Queens with Ackerman taking the lion's share and Crowley helping smooth out lines.
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« Reply #174 on: June 02, 2011, 11:21:51 am »

Is Anthony Weiner saving Gary Ackerman's career?

Look at a map. Weiner's district should be the one to go.

Could they stretch NY-4 across the Rockaways, circling NY-6, and into the southern bits of NY-9? It makes sense to me. Give other parts of Brooklyn to NY-10, NY-11, and NY-8 on the one side and divide up Queens with Ackerman taking the lion's share and Crowley helping smooth out lines.

It always appeared that one of the non-VRA districts in NYC/LI had to go. Weiner may have given the legislature an easy out.
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