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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 50725 times)
muon2
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« Reply #250 on: June 24, 2011, 10:32:25 am »

I think even the cautious mapmaker would be well-aware that, even if there were anti-black bloc voting in the Democratic primary or general election in SE Queens (which there isn't), the split nature of the surrounding communities means it is a clear the black-preferred candidate would be elected regardless. After all, you're not drawing a 47% black, 46% white sort of seat. You're drawing a 47% black, 21% Hispanic, 17% white, 15% Asian sort of seat--an enormous difference.

I agree that the demographics of the area would allow a district less than 50% black to still be controlled by the black voters. That's why I expect that the civil rights advocates could come to an agreement with the map makers. However, I am not so confident that a precinct analysis of primary and general election voting patterns in Queens won't show statistically significant differences in voting preference among the racial and ethnic groups. I know those differences exist in Chicago. It's based on those voting patterns that a legal challenge would be made.
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« Reply #251 on: June 24, 2011, 10:45:04 am »
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No legal challenge to keeping Meeks' seat as is is conceivable. Your map, on the other hand... (though it obviously would be upheld).
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« Reply #252 on: June 24, 2011, 11:07:28 am »
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More than one way to skin a New York kitten, aka Presenting the Rangelmander.



3rd district (purple, King)
50.1-49.1 McCain, 79% White
Ungerrymandered but not too much, in order to keep it a McCain seat.
4th district (red, McCarthy)
59.1 Obama, 54% White, 18% Hispanic, 17% Black
5th district (yellow, Ackerman)
62.9 Obama, 42% White, 35% Asian, 16% Hispanic
The idea here is to make it possible that this will become an Asian opportunity seat in the nearish future, of course. Precincts given to McCarthy were handpicked for Whiteness.
6th district (teal, Meeks)
85.7% Obama, 45% Black, 22% Hispanic, 13% White, 12% Asian
No one should dream that a substantially different map is possible. Please, people.
7th district (grey, Crowley)
80.5% Obama, 53% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 18% White, 6% Black
And, yes, it's majority Hispanic VAP. Probably not enough for Velazquez to move here, alas. IRL, of course, you're not going to see this district.
8th (lavender)
94.6% Obama, 53% Black, 21% White, 20% Hispanic
9th (light blue)
83.9% Obama, 52% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian
I have no idea who runs for what. Both are majority Black VAP. Note Coney Island.
10th (pink, open)
63.4% Obama, 60% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian
The Brooklyn White Democrat seat - the one disenfranchised major group in New York's current map. Now with added bonus of uniting all the Hasidic areas of Brooklyn into a single district.
11th (light green, Grimm)
51.9% McCain, 62% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 7% Black
About as safe as can be drawn (when considering Hasidim to not be safe R votes).
12th (slate)
83.3% Obama, 62% White, 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic
13th (orange)
83.8% Obama, 49% White, 34% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian
The Manhattan seats, though orange has a white piece of NW Queens. And yeah, I'm aware you'll have to swim or cross through another district. Maloney is in the orange district, not sure where Nadler is.
14th (black, just because. Rangel)
90.1% Obama, 45% Black, 34% Hispanic, 14% White, 5% Asian
The only district to introduce unnecessary county splits here. Cheesy
15th (tomato, Serrano)
94.3% Obama, 63% Hispanic, 30% Black

Light green is part of Engel's and possibly Lowey's seat, of course.
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« Reply #253 on: June 24, 2011, 12:22:14 pm »
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More than one way to skin a New York kitten, aka Presenting the Rangelmander.



3rd district (purple, King)
50.1-49.1 McCain, 79% White
Ungerrymandered but not too much, in order to keep it a McCain seat.
4th district (red, McCarthy)
59.1 Obama, 54% White, 18% Hispanic, 17% Black
5th district (yellow, Ackerman)
62.9 Obama, 42% White, 35% Asian, 16% Hispanic
The idea here is to make it possible that this will become an Asian opportunity seat in the nearish future, of course. Precincts given to McCarthy were handpicked for Whiteness.
6th district (teal, Meeks)
85.7% Obama, 45% Black, 22% Hispanic, 13% White, 12% Asian
No one should dream that a substantially different map is possible. Please, people.
7th district (grey, Crowley)
80.5% Obama, 53% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 18% White, 6% Black
And, yes, it's majority Hispanic VAP. Probably not enough for Velazquez to move here, alas. IRL, of course, you're not going to see this district.
8th (lavender)
94.6% Obama, 53% Black, 21% White, 20% Hispanic
9th (light blue)
83.9% Obama, 52% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian
I have no idea who runs for what. Both are majority Black VAP. Note Coney Island.
10th (pink, open)
63.4% Obama, 60% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian
The Brooklyn White Democrat seat - the one disenfranchised major group in New York's current map. Now with added bonus of uniting all the Hasidic areas of Brooklyn into a single district.
11th (light green, Grimm)
51.9% McCain, 62% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 7% Black
About as safe as can be drawn (when considering Hasidim to not be safe R votes).
12th (slate)
83.3% Obama, 62% White, 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic
13th (orange)
83.8% Obama, 49% White, 34% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian
The Manhattan seats, though orange has a white piece of NW Queens. And yeah, I'm aware you'll have to swim or cross through another district. Maloney is in the orange district, not sure where Nadler is.
14th (black, just because. Rangel)
90.1% Obama, 45% Black, 34% Hispanic, 14% White, 5% Asian
The only district to introduce unnecessary county splits here. Cheesy
15th (tomato, Serrano)
94.3% Obama, 63% Hispanic, 30% Black

Light green is part of Engel's and possibly Lowey's seat, of course.

Ackerman now actually live in Nassau (Roslyn Heights)
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muon2
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« Reply #254 on: June 24, 2011, 06:55:51 pm »

No legal challenge to keeping Meeks' seat as is is conceivable. Your map, on the other hand... (though it obviously would be upheld).

So with a little squeezing I can make the districts neater. The LI black districts are now all a whisker over 50%. CD 12 gave up a few tenths as well. There is still a piece of CD 6 in Nassau, but it is small. Without it the best I could do is 49.2% black for CD 6. Here's the new map and revised table (changes in green).



CD 1 (blue Bishop) Moves from 51.4% Obama to 51.9% Obama
CD 2 (green Israel) Moves from 56.1% Obama to 59.8% Obama
CD 3 (purple King) Moves from 51.9% McCain to 55.1% McCain
CD 4 (red McCarthy) Moves from 58.0% Obama to 58.3% Obama
CD 5 (tan Ackerman) White plurality 38.5%, Asian VAP 31.4%
CD 6 (teal Meeks) Black VAP 50.2%

CD 7 (gray Crowley) White plurality 48.8%, Hisp VAP 23.4%, Black VAP 21.6%
CD 8 (slate Nadler) White majority 55.4%, Asian VAP 27.6%
CD 9 (cyan Grimm) Repaces NY-13, moves from 50.5% McCain to 57.0% McCain
CD 10 (orchid Towns) Black VAP 50.4%
CD 11 (chartreuse Clarke)Black VAP 50.1%
CD 12 (yellow Velazquez) Hisp VAP 58.9%

CD 13 (light blue Engel) Replaces NY-17, White plurality 38.5%, Black VAP 29.8%, Hisp VAP 24.3%
CD 14 (olive Maloney) White majority 68.7%
CD 15 (orange Rangel) Hisp VAP 52.3%, Black VAP 30.5%
CD 16 (lime Serrano) Hisp VAP 64.9%, Black VAP 27.4%
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« Reply #255 on: June 24, 2011, 09:38:31 pm »
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There is no reason to extend Meeks into Long Island. Expanding a little in the north works just fine.

Yep.  I agree.

Further, I take the general view that it is better to maintain a LI/NYC divide whenever possible. There are naturally some different concerns among the constituencies. LI makes up just barely 4 seats(I believe Cinyc said 35k short) and there are fringe city areas on the border that work well with a LI rep (Orthodox parts of Far Rock w. same rep as Five towns).
I think carving out these majority_____ minority districts for its own sake is getting ridiculous and with ever expanding diversity will become a fools errand. I think it is much better to have some pluralities with districts that have geographic continuity and common concerns. 

As long as there are significant differences in the voting behavior of protected minorities compared to the white population, the Constitution through the VRA will require districts where minorities have the opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice. In areas where the minorities are thinly spread in the general population, there is unlikely to be a need to create those districts, but where they are concentrated differences in voting patterns can be more readily distinguished, so special districts tend to be needed. In any case the situation for a minority must be examined on both the level of the state as well as in each locale.

The state-level facts for NY show that blacks make up 15.2% of the voting age population and Hispanics make up 16.2% of the voting age population. Based on the DeGrandy decision, if NY draws fewer than 4 black-majority and 4 Hispanic-majority districts than they could be open to a challenge if additional seats could be reasonably drawn. Both black and Hispanic populations outside of NYC are too dispersed to provide congressional seat majorities, so 3 districts each is a reasonable upper limit.

There is the additional challenge of making sure that the Hispanic population can control the vote in their districts due to turnout and citizenship factors. This tends to necessitate districts with larger Hispanic majorities to achieve electoral success, and that tends to reduce the number of districts. No agreed upon standard exists for Hispanic districts between the federal Appellate Courts, and many observers expect that SCOTUS will have to deal with this question this decade.

So, the specific issue is what to do about Meeks' district? A cautious mapmaker would want to avoid a clear opportunity for a challenge, and would bring the VAP for that district over 50%. The only choices to do that are an extension into Nassau or a long thin bridge to Harlem or the Bronx. I think everyone would agree that the former is the better choice, since it's arguably the more compact choice and reflects closer communities of interest.

Now in the real world, map makers could get an agreement from major civil rights groups like the NAACP. That agreement could include districts that were a lower percentage, but still likely to allow the minority to elect the candidate of their choice. If the NAACP and other major black civil signed off on a CD 6 with less than 50% black VAP, the chance of a successful challenge diminishes. But, since I don't have that concurrence, I was left with the more cautious route.

Yep, thanks for the details.  I am not well versed on the finer details of the VRA decisions like you guys so I appreciate the input.  I vaguely understand why these monstrosity districts must be drawn, but they still annoy the heck out of me.  New York is well on its way to being majority-minority and within that new majority the different groups will be broken down into even smaller groups. Drawing these patchwork special districts is just going to get ever more complicated and imo un-neccesary.
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« Reply #256 on: June 25, 2011, 03:57:43 am »
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But the actual district drawn doesn't have to be Black majority under case law... things change if you're presenting a map that creates additional minority-majority districts and arguing that the state must draw more minority-opportunity seats than it is willing to, but that isn't the case with your map at all. (Though I wonder if it is possible, with some creative mapping, to draw an additional Hispanic-majority seat while keeping Rangel's as a coalition seat. That would probably entail gutting McCarthy's minority areas, and might be a worthwhile legal challenge. If the districts can be argued to be a community of interest. In other words, even if you can draw it you'll probably lose your case in court. But you'll get your day in court with such a map. Much like the second Black seat maps in AL and SC, then.)
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« Reply #257 on: June 25, 2011, 06:50:22 am »
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I call this map "too many objectives". Two Black majority seats, Three Hispanic majority seats, two Black plurality seats one of which is evidently Meeks' (and, yeah, the other one is Engel's. Near three way tie), and an ever so barely Asian plurality seat, not that it would actually elect one in 2012. And my Brooklyn White district. And a North-South split of Nassau.

1st 78% White, 13% Hispanic, 52.0% Obama
2nd 65% White, 20% Hispanic, 53.0% Obama
3rd (south Nassau) 64% White, 17% Hispanic, 14% Black, 54.1% Obama
4th (north Nassau and all the way to Pelham) 72% White, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 52.4% Obama
I wonder who would run in which district... where do King and McCarthy live? Ackerman is in the 4th, evidently.
5th (yellow Queens) 40% Asian, 38% White, 15% Hispanic (still plurality White VAP), 63.1% Obama
6th (Meeks, sans Rockaway now) 43% Black, 22% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 85.5% Obama
7th (grey Queens, with Bushwick, a corridor through Hispanic parts of Williamsburg, and Two Bridges and Alphabet City. I apologize for the way it looks in the East River, that's just the empty precincts' design. All cross East River districts have their own bridge or tunnel.) 54% Hispanic, 19% White, 17% Asian, 82.5% Obama
8th (central Brooklyn), 56% Black, 21% Hispanic, 16% White, 94.7% Obama
9th (light blue Brooklyn) 55% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic, 82.8% Obama
10th (pink Brooklyn) 61% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 62.2% Obama. Compared to previous map, adds a bit of Williamsburg, loses a sliver in South Brooklyn (the neighborhood of that name. Which is in North Western Brooklyn, of course.)
11th (Staten) 62% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 51.9% McCain. Not tampered with compared to previous version.
12th (Lower Manhattan with Greenpoint, Hunters Point. Nadler) 67% White, 17% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 82.0% Obama
13th (black Harlem River) 60% Hispanic, 29% Black, 94.9% Obama
14th (tomato Bronx) 59% Hispanic, 27% Black, 89.6% Obama
Kind of assuming Rangel is forced into retirement no matter what, if not in 2012 then in '14 or '16, so no use propping him up either.
15th (orange. Uptown, Riverdale, NW Queens Whites. Maloney) 59% White, 22% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 81.3% Obama
16th (my masterpiece) 33% Black, 31% Hispanic, 30% White, 75.3% Obama. Whites move into second place on VAP. Is Engel still safe under this map? Or does he discover an interest in running for mayor?
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« Reply #258 on: June 25, 2011, 07:15:01 am »
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Enhance. I could have sworn I added internal road links to the orange district... apparently not. Oh well.
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« Reply #259 on: June 25, 2011, 03:15:22 pm »
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And what I think is my final NYC map (upstate to be drawn... uh... sometime soon. I notice my earlier plan doesn't work now.)



3rd 59% White, 18% Hispanic, 17% Black, 56.4% Obama. Yeah, I suppose this is actually the 4th, not the 3rd. Anyways, wholly in Hempstead and Long Beach apart from the Far Rockaway Hasidim.
4th 74% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 51.5% Obama. Should be good enough for King. If he lives here. If not, well there's Ackerman I suppose. (googles it) Ooh, apparently McCarthy, King and Ackerman are all here! I suppose McCarthy chicken runs to the south, though.
5th 40% Asian, 36% White, 16% Hispanic, 64.2% Obama. And open, apparently, at least til Weiner's successor has been chosen. Plurality Asian on VAP as well.
6th 45% Black, 21% Hispanic, 15% White, 12% Asian, 85.5% Obama. Safe for Meeks.
7th 53% Hispanic, 23% White, 17% Asian, 78.9% Obama. Piece of work keeping this majority Hispanic VAP. Maybe Velazquez even lives in it? And where does Crowley live?
8th 54% Black, 21% Hispanic, 19% White, 95.3% Obama.
9th 52% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic, 83.9% Obama
10th 60% White, 20% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 60.9% Obama. I had to remove a lot of uberliberal areas in Park Slope etc in the last goround.
11th 63% White, 15% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 52.2% McCain. Inched up a tad by adding Marine Park.
12th 62% White, 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 82.2% Obama
13th 62% Hispanic, 30% Black, 95.3% Obama
14th 53% Hispanic, 36% Black, 93.0% Obama
15th 52% White, 26% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 84.2% Obama. Yeah, it's the orange district from College Point to Inwood. No, it's not pretty. Basically a district of leftovers. My particular apologies to the people of East Harlem. Maloney, probably Crowley as well?
16th 46% White, 29% Hispanic, 18% Black. Includes all of Port Chester just outside the map, but nothing else. (Similarly, Rockaway, Coney Island and Staten are all undivided).

Not strictly necessary county splits: two between Queens and Nassau, one necessary for the Asian plurality seat, the other just uniting a little marooned community that somehow came to be on both sides of the line.
None elsewhere. Not strictly necessary town splits: None.
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« Reply #260 on: June 26, 2011, 01:14:35 am »
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I call this map "too many objectives". Two Black majority seats, Three Hispanic majority seats, two Black plurality seats one of which is evidently Meeks' (and, yeah, the other one is Engel's. Near three way tie), and an ever so barely Asian plurality seat, not that it would actually elect one in 2012. And my Brooklyn White district. And a North-South split of Nassau.

1st 78% White, 13% Hispanic, 52.0% Obama
2nd 65% White, 20% Hispanic, 53.0% Obama
3rd (south Nassau) 64% White, 17% Hispanic, 14% Black, 54.1% Obama
4th (north Nassau and all the way to Pelham) 72% White, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 52.4% Obama
I wonder who would run in which district... where do King and McCarthy live? Ackerman is in the 4th, evidently.
5th (yellow Queens) 40% Asian, 38% White, 15% Hispanic (still plurality White VAP), 63.1% Obama
6th (Meeks, sans Rockaway now) 43% Black, 22% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 85.5% Obama
7th (grey Queens, with Bushwick, a corridor through Hispanic parts of Williamsburg, and Two Bridges and Alphabet City. I apologize for the way it looks in the East River, that's just the empty precincts' design. All cross East River districts have their own bridge or tunnel.) 54% Hispanic, 19% White, 17% Asian, 82.5% Obama
8th (central Brooklyn), 56% Black, 21% Hispanic, 16% White, 94.7% Obama
9th (light blue Brooklyn) 55% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic, 82.8% Obama
10th (pink Brooklyn) 61% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 62.2% Obama. Compared to previous map, adds a bit of Williamsburg, loses a sliver in South Brooklyn (the neighborhood of that name. Which is in North Western Brooklyn, of course.)
11th (Staten) 62% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 51.9% McCain. Not tampered with compared to previous version.
12th (Lower Manhattan with Greenpoint, Hunters Point. Nadler) 67% White, 17% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 82.0% Obama
13th (black Harlem River) 60% Hispanic, 29% Black, 94.9% Obama
14th (tomato Bronx) 59% Hispanic, 27% Black, 89.6% Obama
Kind of assuming Rangel is forced into retirement no matter what, if not in 2012 then in '14 or '16, so no use propping him up either.
15th (orange. Uptown, Riverdale, NW Queens Whites. Maloney) 59% White, 22% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 81.3% Obama
16th (my masterpiece) 33% Black, 31% Hispanic, 30% White, 75.3% Obama. Whites move into second place on VAP. Is Engel still safe under this map? Or does he discover an interest in running for mayor?

McCarthy lives in Mineola, which looks like is on the southern fringe of the red district in central Nassau.  (looks like the Town borders of N. Hempstead and Hempstead or community borders of Mineola and Garden City is where you have it split.  Even if she doesn't live there, my guess is McCarthy would choose to run in the purple one since that covers about 3/4 of her current district (Mineola is on the northern fringe of the current one.  also you could draw her into the purple one with ease. 

King lives in Seaford (north of Sunrise).  It looks like you use Sunrise Highway as the border between the two districts in SE Nassau, but I can't tell if that ends in Massapequa, or extends into Seaford (you bring the border a bit further north in the Seaford/Wantagh area, but its hard to tell exactly where.
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« Reply #261 on: June 26, 2011, 08:38:07 pm »
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Re, Buffalo: just noticed Hochul lives in Hamburg, which is south of the city and decidedly in Brian Higgins' district. The fact that she's already the member may suggest no-one cares about this, but if the legislature decides to care, the split here could look weirder than we have perhaps thought.
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« Reply #262 on: June 26, 2011, 08:45:30 pm »
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I think Hochul has said she will move if she has to.
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« Reply #263 on: June 27, 2011, 06:11:46 am »
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So, here's the Upstate part of my New York map. I do consider this a fair, communities of interest, map that a truly independent commission might draw.



Changes to NYC were minimal (compared to my last map) - I changed the numbers of the 3rd and 4th and of the 13th-15th, reverted to default colors, performed some mild gerrymandering in Huntington, found a quite populated unassigned precinct in the Bronx and adjusted boundaries there and in Scarsdale according to get back into my selfset 1000 deviation corridor.
(all but 5 districts are actually within 500, and 5 are within 100. Indeed two of those are 4 inhabitants off the ideal, but that's basically a random occurrence. That most districts don't use the 1000 to full extent is not, though.)

Adding figures for recap.
1st (Suffolk East) 78% White, 13% Hispanic. 52.0% Obama. Tim Bishop
Nothing to see here.
2nd (Suffolk West) 64% White, 21% Hispanic. 53.6% Obama. Steve Israel
Less safe than he was.
3rd (Nassau North) 75% White, 10% Hispanic, 10% Asian. 51.0% Obama. Steve King, Carolyn McCarthy, Gary Ackerman
McCarthy chicken runs to the south. Ackerman retires or chicken runs to the Asian seat or loses to King. Or defeats King. Or someone else does. But these are the less likely scenarios.
4th (Nassau South) 59% White, 18% Hispanic, 17% Black. 56.4% Obama. Open
McCarthy's, actually. She lives just outside.
5th (Queens Northeast) 40% Asian, 36% White, 16% Hispanic. 64.2% Obama. Open
Not open until Weiner resigned, and presumably not open once the vacancy has been filled. Probably won't elect an Asian, but I think a specifically Asian influence seat, especially as it almost draws itself and only needs to be enhanced by finetuning the edges, is called for. Getting it much higher would require a one-inch wide connector into Chinatown and not be justified.
6th (Queens South) 45% Black, 21% Hispanic, 15% White, 12% Asian. 85.5% Obama. Meeks
Nothing to see here.
7th (Queens Northwest & Bushwick) 53% Hispanic, 23% White, 17% Asian. 78.9% Obama. Nydia Velazquez
At least I *guess* she's the incumbent (She lives in Williamsburg, which is split. Crowley is somewhere in the Queens portion of his constituency, the whiter parts of which portion end up in the 13th though I think the majority ends up here.)
8th (Brooklyn Central) 54% Black, 21% Hispanic, 19% White. 95.3% Obama. Yvette Clarke.
As far as I can tell, Clarke lives in Flatbush, which is split but mostly here, and Towns seems to be living in Flatlands, which is in the 9th. Seeing as a lot of the dividing line runs through solidly jetblack territory and is pretty random, things could always be rearranged to keep them separate.
9th (Brooklyn Southeast) 52% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic. 83.9% Obama. Ed Towns.
Nothing to see here.
10th (Brooklyn West) 60% White, 20% Hispanic, 16% Asian. 60.9% Obama. Open.
I've pointed out what is to be seen here before.
11th (Staten Island & Brooklyn Southwest) 63% White, 15% Hispanic, 14% Asian. 52.2% McCain. Mike Grimm.
Nothing to see here.
12th (Manhattan Lower) 62% White, 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic. 82.2% Obama. Jerry Nadler.
Not sure he actually lives here, but he'd obviously represent it.
13th (Manhattan Upper & La Guardia) 52% White, 26% Hispanic, 11% Black. 84.2% Obama. Carolyn Maloney, Joe Crowley.
I've issued my apologies before. Not sure about Crowley, or Maloney and Nadler actually. Might it be preferable to split the 12th and 13th east-west?
14th (Harlem River) 62% Hispanic, 30% Black. 95.3% Obama. Jose Serrano, Charlie Rangel.
I *think* Serrano is here. Might be just across the line. He might run next door and leave this one to Rangel. Or Rangel might retire.
15th (Bronx Central) 53% Hispanic, 36% Black. 93.2% Obama. Open.
Serrano's or a noob's. Who might well be a Black.
16th (Westchester South & Bronx Outer) 46% White, 29% Hispanic, 18% Black. 67.5% Obama. Eliot Engel.
Nothing to see here.
17th (Westchester North) 72% White, 15% Hispanic. 56.9% Obama. Nita Lowey, Nan Hayworth.
Not much to see here. Lowey wins.
18th (Rockland & Sullivan) 67% White, 17% Hispanic, 10% Black. 52.2% Obama. Open.
And with lots of Hasidim as the core swing demographic!
19th (Hudson Valley) 84% White. 54.5% Obama. Maurice Hinchey, Chris Gibson.
Can Hinchey hold this? It should probably elect a generic Democrat, but Hinchey is no generic Democrat.
20th (Albany & Mohawk Valley) 80% White. 57.7% Obama. Paul Tonko.
Safe even though not as safe as in my earlier plan, where it would have included Saratoga instead of Fulton and Montgomery (drawing Tonko outside of his district in the process.) Thing is, my preliminary numbers plan of uniting Binghampton not just with Ithaca and Elmira as it really ought to be, but also with vast rural areas to the west, fleshing out Syracuse with points west, and creating a district based around Oneida and Montgomery Counties that ended up including all sorts of odds and ends that didn't really belong... it doesn't work anymore. There's too many people west of Elmira, too few people in New York (pushing the Hudson Valley seats outward), also too few people in Oneida itself, and the result of keeping that setup is pretty inevitably a three way split of Binghampton. It just wouldn't do. That recognition led to a major realignment of districts 19-24 (19 adding Otsego and Schoharie). If the Erie Canal / Mohawk Valley / New York State Thruway can't have its own district, then the next option is clearly the cities east and west. Evidently it would be ideal to include Fulton County (or at least the main towns of Johnstown and Gloversville), but I ran into population constraint issues.
21st (Saint Lawrence & Saratoga) 93% White. 51.7% Obama. Bill Owens.
Not really all that much to see here. Adds Saratoga, loses Watertown. Obviously Owens won't ever be safe without a bipartisan gerrymander, but then in real life that's exactly what we'll be seeing.
22nd (Southern Tier) 90% White. 51.4% Obama. Tom Reed.
This one came out quite neat. Reed holds it until the next Dem wave and no longer.
23rd (Syracuse & Rome/Utica) 81% White. 55.5% Obama. Ann Marie Buerkle, Richard Hanna.
Two Republican incumbents in a seat that you'd expect to be generically fairly securely Democratic... though you'd be wrong, given Walsh's survival in 2006 and Buerkle's upset 2010 win. Whoever survives the primary still has a big red x on their back.
24th (deep purple remnant district) 91% White. 50.9% Obama. Open.
Yeah, ugly. Stretching from Batavia to Fort Drum, evading Syracuse in the process. Something had to give. Would presumably be quite securely Republican in congressional elections.
25th (Rochester) 72% White, 15% Black. 58.8% Obama. Louise Slaughter.
Nothing to see here.
26th (Suburban Erie & points south) 92% White. 50.5% McCain. Kathy Hochul.
I think that's marginally more Democratic than her current district. Obviously still a prime Republican target.
27th (Buffalo & Niagara) 72% White, 18% Black. 62.2% Obama. Brian Higgins.
The compact Buffalo district I drew at first works just fine - north to the county line, east to the Transit Road, south to Hamburg. What doesn't really work, then, is the 26th, which aquires an hourglass shape (especially once I noticed Genesee was just the population I needed in the 24th, while Wyoming is too small) and misses the main north-south thoroughfare (the interstate around Buffalo). I think this is a viable alternative. The partisan effect is fairly negligible. As to other options - stretching the 24th like a chewing gum? Splitting Rochester? Pleeease. (What might work is stretching the 22nd, but it's not going to be pretty either.)

So yeah, thoughts. Comments. Point-outs of obvious errors of judgement or overlooked improvements.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2011, 06:15:30 am by Jakob Bronsky »Logged

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« Reply #264 on: June 27, 2011, 06:45:46 am »
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1. Splitting the Buffalo metro. No. One district for Buffalo and its immediate suburbs, as well as Niagara Falls, and one district for Buffalo exurbs and the Southern Tier conservatives.

2. Jefferson County only belongs with the far north. Same with Oswego County unless you can pair it with Syracuse. Certainly does not belong with Rochester exurbs and the Southern Tier, which are demographically and historically different (Dutch and German and deeply religious in the Southern Tier v. New England/English moderates in the far north)

3. Albany to Herkimer, WTF? I-90 is not a community of interest. Put Herkimer in the district to the south, along with all of Montgomery County west of Amsterdam. Put more of Rensselaer or Saratoga in the Albany seat.

I'd try to work Steuben and Alleghany, and maybe Chemung, into the district to the north while pushing the Ithaca-Binghamton district further east into Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan Counties. Not sure how well that would work population-wise, but your current Ithaca-Binghamton seat is a mess.
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« Reply #265 on: June 27, 2011, 08:04:20 am »
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This would be my counterproposal. Not a big fan of the area between Albany and Utica, but something strange has to happen there. Could swap Delaware County for Fulton/Montgomery, I suppose.

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« Reply #266 on: June 27, 2011, 01:05:48 pm »
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1. Splitting the Buffalo metro. No. One district for Buffalo and its immediate suburbs, as well as Niagara Falls, and one district for Buffalo exurbs and the Southern Tier conservatives.
You're splitting the Buffalo Metro no matter what, of course. But yeah, the map you show is the two western districts as I drew them at first.

Quote
3. Albany to Herkimer, WTF? I-90 is not a community of interest. Put Herkimer in the district to the south, along with all of Montgomery County west of Amsterdam. Put more of Rensselaer or Saratoga in the Albany seat.
That can be very easily done.

This would be my counterproposal. Not a big fan of the area between Albany and Utica, but something strange has to happen there. Could swap Delaware County for Fulton/Montgomery, I suppose.
That would be an improvement. Would need to check how it comes out figurewise. There remains the issue of Rome... surely Rome and Utica belong together? What are the partisan stats on your map? (Also, why the hell did you amend the northern boundary of the 17th and 18th districts, forcing the 18th to take in a little piece on the other bank of the Hudson? Huh )
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« Reply #267 on: June 27, 2011, 02:11:49 pm »
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I didn't really pay attention to what was going on at the southern edge of Upstate, so what you did probably makes more sense. I didn't finish the map, just the nine upstate districts.

As for partisanship, on this new iteration (below, which I think is something of an improvement):

Buffalo: 62-36 Obama
Rural Buffalo: 45-52 McCain
Rochester: 58-39 Obama
Rural Rochester and Southern Tier: 45-53 McCain
Syracuse: 56-41 Obama
Ithaca-Binghamton-Utica-Oneonta: 53-44 Obama (I think this was 53-45 before)
Far North: 50-47 Obama (I think this was 51-47 before)
Albany etc.: 58-39 Obama
Hudson Valley: 54-44 Obama (I think this was 54-43 before)

« Last Edit: June 27, 2011, 02:16:39 pm by Verily »Logged
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« Reply #268 on: June 27, 2011, 02:20:19 pm »
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'kay, here's the reworked upstate, rather like Verily's but not quite.



19th (Hudson Valley) 84% White. 54.4% Obama. Maurice Hinchey, Chris Gibson.
Can Hinchey hold this? It should probably elect a generic Democrat, but Hinchey is no generic Democrat.
20th (Albany) 80% White. 58.3% Obama. Paul Tonko.
Back up to Saratoga, but Tonko is still in as he's from Rotterdam.
21st (Saint Lawrence & Mohawk Valley) 92% White. 51.0% Obama. Bill Owens.
Regains Watertown, but not Oswego.
22nd (babyshit brown) 87% White. 53.2% Obama. Richard Hanna.
Now combines Binghampton and Ithaca (but not Elmira) with Rome and Utica. Swingy until/unless an incumbent digs in. Hanna's home is just barely inside the district.
23rd (Syracuse with Oswego and Auburn) 84% White. 56.4% Obama. Ann Marie Buerkle
Might be too Democratic now for Buerkle to hold.
24th (West Central) 92% White. 52.9% McCain. Tom Reed
Quite safe here.
25th (Rochester) 72% White, 15% Black. 58.7% Obama. Louise Slaughter.
Nothing to see here.
26th (Niagara, Outer Erie, Chautauqua) 90% White. 52.8% McCain. Open.
Hochul would run here (she's just inside the Buffalo seat), but it's a prime Republican target.
27th (Buffalo) 73% White, 16% Black. 62.4% Obama. Brian Higgins, Kathy Hochul.
The compact Buffalo district I drew at first that works just fine.

(hits post) Ah, you beat me. Quite similar now.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2011, 02:23:33 pm by Jakob Bronsky »Logged

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« Reply #269 on: June 27, 2011, 03:54:21 pm »
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I-88, connecting Oneonta to Binghamton, runs through the NW corner of Delaware County. Personally, I prefer preserving transit links to preserving county lines and would put the northwesternmost corner of Delaware County (Sidney) in NY-22. (You could then drop the bit of Herkimer in NY-22 maybe and put that tiny bit of Rensselaer in NY-21 in NY-19--not sure how the populations work out, but something like that.)

NY-22 ends up a truly odd duck. That was my intent, of course; it's a weird fusion of small post-industrial cities (Binghamton, Utica, Rome), college towns (Ithaca, Oneonta, Hamilton, Clinton, Binghamton again) and rural areas. It extends outward to precisely take in all of the college towns in central NY. But they all fit together fairly well in the end.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2011, 03:59:07 pm by Verily »Logged
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« Reply #270 on: June 28, 2011, 05:37:54 am »
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It's not a tiny part population-wise. And I think it makes perfect sense to draw Troy with Albany.

The bit of Herkimer, similarly, is (in my map) a single township (Schuyler) whose population is mostly just outside of Utica though the area extends well eastward.
I never get what people mean with the "preserving transit links" argument... does the drive along I-88 somehow become impossible or take one second longer because it crosses a district line? Or are we talking of Sidney's transit links? If the town is politically in Delaware County but looks to its neighbors along the interstate as a Community of Interest, then that would make sense.
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« Reply #271 on: July 02, 2011, 12:39:47 pm »
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is it possible that Charlie Rangel gets primaried by a Puerto Rican?
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« Reply #272 on: July 02, 2011, 12:50:05 pm »
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It's not a tiny part population-wise. And I think it makes perfect sense to draw Troy with Albany.

Whoops, I meant Washington County, not Rensselaer County.
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« Reply #273 on: July 06, 2011, 04:06:37 pm »
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Andrew Cuomo says I will veto a plan that is not independent or a plan that is partisan."
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« Reply #274 on: July 06, 2011, 09:28:34 pm »
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Well Pat Quinn also said that he wanted a fair map.
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