US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135147 times)
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jfern
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« Reply #275 on: July 07, 2011, 12:34:02 AM »


Vetoing a Republican gerrymander of the State Senate should be a no-brainer, though.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #276 on: July 07, 2011, 10:00:07 AM »


So did Mitch Daniels.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #277 on: July 07, 2011, 10:21:29 AM »

I guess he could pull a McDonnell and pretend that only the Republican map is gerrymandered.
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Lunar
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« Reply #278 on: July 08, 2011, 07:58:08 PM »


Cuomo was much more specific, saying that he would veto a map not drawn by an independent commission.

Could be a bargaining move though with the legislature
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krazen1211
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« Reply #279 on: July 12, 2011, 01:54:40 PM »

http://online.wsj.com/article/APebf21da02e004c39b6246aea765a06f8.html

NEW YORK — The diverse congressional district that Anthony Weiner vacated in the midst of a sexting scandal has become the latest battleground for a Latino organization that is laboring to increase the political clout of Hispanics in Congress.

LatinoJustice PRLDEF, which is involved in redistricting fights in 10 jurisdictions throughout the Northeast and in Florida, is proposing that New York's 9th Congressional District be dissolved as the nation's political map is redrawn to reflect population shifts based on new census data. But such a proposal could irk Democratic leaders and even residents of Weiner's former district themselves.


I guess they figure that Velazquez's 12th is the only other target if the 9th survives.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #280 on: July 13, 2011, 12:17:00 AM »

I guess he could pull a McDonnell and pretend that only the Republican map is gerrymandered.

I suspect he will imitate McDonnell in rejecting the initial GOP Map and forcing them to draw one that protects only their current incumbents, which given Grisenti's position, all but guarantees the Democrats the majority.
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whaeffner1
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« Reply #281 on: August 12, 2011, 09:30:18 PM »

In Dave's Redistricting App, I actually created a Republican district that went for McCain in the South of Brooklyn while keeping Michael Grimm's Republican leaning district.  As soon as I can get a screenshot, I'll put it up.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #282 on: August 12, 2011, 09:37:36 PM »

You aren't the first. The problem is such would probably elect a Democrat in most circumstances. McCain got a lot of votes from Orthadox jews that usually vote pretty straight ticket D, downballot.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #283 on: August 13, 2011, 10:05:53 PM »

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only if the Republican's put up a stupid candidate (we voted for Paladino at around a 50% rate and if he would not have been portrayed as a "Crazy Carl" he would have got at least in the 70%)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #284 on: August 14, 2011, 04:01:02 AM »

But the Democrat running there wouldn't be Andrew Cuomo, but a Jewish candidate with ties to the community.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #285 on: August 14, 2011, 07:18:07 AM »

It isn't exactly the same, but Carl Kruger holds a State Senate district that's 55-45 McCain.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #286 on: August 14, 2011, 11:42:38 AM »

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and when was the last time the Republicans put up any Challenger against Kruger much less a good candidate (since at least 2004 the only challengers he ever got were on the conservative line with the last one being a 19 year old kid who got a record for the highest anyone ever got only on the Conservative line)
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Lunar
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« Reply #287 on: August 25, 2011, 11:30:42 PM »

In Dave's Redistricting App, I actually created a Republican district that went for McCain in the South of Brooklyn while keeping Michael Grimm's Republican leaning district.  As soon as I can get a screenshot, I'll put it up.

I think someone already created such a thing earlier on in this thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129756.msg2927069#msg2927069
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Torie
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« Reply #288 on: September 09, 2011, 04:08:55 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2011, 07:15:21 PM by Torie »

Well, if Turner bags Weprin, and assuming the Pubbies are willing to push NY-03 into the lean GOP column from reasonably safe, and make that worthless creature and one-time IRA symp Peter King work harder, if I were the NY Pubbies, I would drive a hard bargain with the Dems. The map below was drawn without my ever looking at partisan numbers until it was finished. It is the map that I think a court might well draw. Given the VRA, it sort of draws itself, with NY-12 and NY-09 becoming filler CD's stuck between the minority CD's. NY-04 disappears; good bye Carolyn McCarthy, the lady who jump started her career running against guns, and has had an undistinguished career ever since.

The Dem margin in NY-12 collapses (but still safe Dem), Ackerman in NY-05 now has a lean Dem CD, and will have to really sweat to hold on to it, or become more moderate, and yes, NY-09 becomes a reasonably safe GOP district. As a lagniappe for the Pubbies, NY-02 changes from lean Dem to a true toss up CD. Crowley (NY-07) and Velazquez (NY-12) will need to swap CD's.  I did everything possible to get NY-06 to 50% black VAP, but after doing everything, the best I could do was 49.7% black VAP, so that should hold up. There are no more blacks in the neighborhood.
 
It is all a really beautiful thing really. On a really good day, the Pubbies could have a six pack representing Long Island and NYC.  Imagine that!  Sure if the courts draw the lines, the Pubbies will lose 1 or 2 CD's upstate (but Hinckley [Hinchey] with his ludicrous CD which was gerrymandered for him might be in serious trouble as well), but it all seems well worth it to me.

The bottom line is that the VRA really F's - and F's bad, the Dems in the Big Apple metro area; that and the geography of the territory, which limits were CD's can go, without looking ridiculous. I didn't even look at the old map. It was and is just an erose mess and deserves to be thrown into the garbage, never to be seen again.

It is interesting that Charlie Rangel's CD (NY-15) will end up being only about 25% black. It won't be any higher, because they are no blacks nearby (or otherwise available) for that CD to reach out and pick up. Rather the CD needs to pick up more of the white upper west side. Meanwhile Harlem itself is steadily bleaching towards white.  The real estate is just too valuable.



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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #289 on: September 09, 2011, 05:59:53 PM »

Don't you mean, "Hinchey"? Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #290 on: September 09, 2011, 06:08:48 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2011, 06:12:53 PM by Torie »


Ya, him. Hinckley (sp) gained fame in another venue.  Smiley
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #291 on: September 09, 2011, 08:10:57 PM »

Well, if Turner bags Weprin, and assuming the Pubbies are willing to push NY-03 into the lean GOP column from reasonably safe, and make that worthless creature and one-time IRA symp Peter King work harder, if I were the NY Pubbies, I would drive a hard bargain with the Dems. The map below was drawn without my ever looking at partisan numbers until it was finished. It is the map that I think a court might well draw. Given the VRA, it sort of draws itself, with NY-12 and NY-09 becoming filler CD's stuck between the minority CD's. NY-04 disappears; good bye Carolyn McCarthy, the lady who jump started her career running against guns, and has had an undistinguished career ever since.

The Dem margin in NY-12 collapses (but still safe Dem), Ackerman in NY-05 now has a lean Dem CD, and will have to really sweat to hold on to it, or become more moderate, and yes, NY-09 becomes a reasonably safe GOP district. As a lagniappe for the Pubbies, NY-02 changes from lean Dem to a true toss up CD. Crowley (NY-07) and Velazquez (NY-12) will need to swap CD's.  I did everything possible to get NY-06 to 50% black VAP, but after doing everything, the best I could do was 49.7% black VAP, so that should hold up. There are no more blacks in the neighborhood.
 
It is all a really beautiful thing really. On a really good day, the Pubbies could have a six pack representing Long Island and NYC.  Imagine that!  Sure if the courts draw the lines, the Pubbies will lose 1 or 2 CD's upstate (but Hinckley [Hinchey] with his ludicrous CD which was gerrymandered for him might be in serious trouble as well), but it all seems well worth it to me.

The bottom line is that the VRA really F's - and F's bad, the Dems in the Big Apple metro area; that and the geography of the territory, which limits were CD's can go, without looking ridiculous. I didn't even look at the old map. It was and is just an erose mess and deserves to be thrown into the garbage, never to be seen again.

It is interesting that Charlie Rangel's CD (NY-15) will end up being only about 25% black. It won't be any higher, because they are no blacks nearby (or otherwise available) for that CD to reach out and pick up. Rather the CD needs to pick up more of the white upper west side. Meanwhile Harlem itself is steadily bleaching towards white.  The real estate is just too valuable.





Why would Democrats ever accept a map like this?
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Sbane
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« Reply #292 on: September 09, 2011, 08:30:06 PM »

I highly doubt a court would draw a 9th district like that. Rest of it looks more or less reasonable.
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Sbane
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« Reply #293 on: September 09, 2011, 11:48:37 PM »

Just drew a very nice looking Republican district in Brooklyn. It's 50-48 Mccain and the 13th is 49-48 Mccain.
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Torie
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« Reply #294 on: September 10, 2011, 01:03:24 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2011, 01:05:37 AM by Torie »

I highly doubt a court would draw a 9th district like that. Rest of it looks more or less reasonable.

NY-09 is boxed between geography and minority CD's. To my mind, there is nowhere else it can go.  You can change it some, but it will dilute the black percentage in NY-10 or NY-11.  It tracks the Brooklyn-Queens line to the east of NY-10. On its east side next to NY-06, that line is defined by trying to max the black percentage in NY-06, which is still below 50% as it is. What does your version look like, sbane? Can you post it?
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Sbane
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« Reply #295 on: September 10, 2011, 01:38:14 AM »


(all racial stats are in VAP)
CD-1 Obama 51.9-47.1 80% White
CD-2 Obama 52.6-46.5 69.1% White
CD-3 Obama 51.5-47.8 71.7% White
CD-5 Obama 54.4-44.8 62.1% White
CD-6 Obama 80.5-19.1 49.9% Black, 21.8% White, 18.6% Hispanic
CD-7 (Brown) Obama 84.6-14.9 53.8% Hispanic, 14.5% White, 14.2% Black, 15.4% Asian
CD-8 Obama 81-18.1 74.1% White
CD-9 Mccain 50.7-48.6 58.9% White, 19% Asian, 16.2% Hispanic
CD-10 Obama 94-5.6 Black 54.9%, 21% Hispanic, 17.9% White
CD-11 Obama 88.8-10.9 Black 53.7%, 21.7% Hispanic, 11.7% White
CD-12 Obama 66.3-32.9 White 38.2%, 29.9% Asian, 24.1% Hispanic
CD-13 Mccain 49.9-49.2 White 63.9% White
CD-14 Obama 85.8-13.2 White 53%, Hispanic 20.9%, 17.8% Asian
CD-15 Obama 95.6-4 Hispanic 46.9%, Black 35.7%, 11.8% White
CD-16 (pink) Obama 87.2-12.2 Hispanic 57.7%, White 18.6%, Black 17.7%
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #296 on: September 10, 2011, 04:07:20 AM »

Well, if Turner bags Weprin, and assuming the Pubbies are willing to push NY-03 into the lean GOP column from reasonably safe, and make that worthless creature and one-time IRA symp Peter King work harder
and assuming that the sun rotates around the moon....
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Torie
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« Reply #297 on: September 10, 2011, 12:46:43 PM »

Interesting map Sbane. That bifurcation of NY-03 however is a bit radical, and it looks like you didn't quite follow county, borough and city lines quite as much. In any event, the Pubbies would be fools to give away a shot for another seat in Brooklyn. It is more an accident of geography given the polarized ethnic voting patterns, and where the blacks and Hispanics live, and all the water around, but there you go.
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Sbane
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« Reply #298 on: September 10, 2011, 01:26:47 PM »

Interesting map Sbane. That bifurcation of NY-03 however is a bit radical, and it looks like you didn't quite follow county, borough and city lines quite as much. In any event, the Pubbies would be fools to give away a shot for another seat in Brooklyn. It is more an accident of geography given the polarized ethnic voting patterns, and where the blacks and Hispanics live, and all the water around, but there you go.

Yes, NY-3 looks a little odd, but it has to be done to keep NY-6 about 50% VAP Black. Though we might be overestimating the need for that Black of a district. Even a 46-47% VAP district would probably be good enough and that would make NY-3 look nice. Also, yes I did not care much for city lines, but it only affects NY-1,2,3 and 5. The minority districts have to be drawn in that particular fashion. So if there is any change it would be where I disregarded city lines where those districts border each other. I doubt it will change the election stats much. That is why I undertook this project, to see whether a fair map would result in a Republican Brooklyn district, and it looks like it will.
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Torie
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« Reply #299 on: September 10, 2011, 01:30:41 PM »

I don't think the law would require a 50% black VAP NY-06 given the non voting Hispanics and Asians in it, and because it requires pawing through some white neighborhoods to get to blacks ones, and so forth.  49.7% black VAP should certainly be sufficient to get a black elected there.
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