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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 48607 times)
Smash255
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« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2010, 03:32:19 am »
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I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.


I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.

Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001? 

The Dems have a massive advantage in the Assembly, even if the Assembly districts are drawn by the courts they will still have a massive advantage.  The GOP would have more to lose by bringing it to the courts, it would result in a Permanent Dem Majority in the Senate and a diminished but still massive Dem majority in the Assembly.

Due to the GOP's minimal advantage in the State Senate which is heavily gerrymandered in the GOP's favor, they really have no leverage to take it to the courts.  My guess is each side loses a Congressional seat, the rest is something similar to the Incumbent Protection, GOP gets to draw the Senate, Dems the Assembly.  That is probably the best the GOP can hope for
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brittain33
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« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2010, 07:25:57 am »
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Torie, the Republicans don't want Hinchey's district carved up. Look at where Ithaca and Binghamton go (students up the wazoo and the people who love them) if that district goes.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2010, 08:23:10 am »
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It's pretty easy to carve up one district held by a Republican and make all the remaining upstate districts pretty safe for their current occupant. I just did a map of upstate New York that eliminates NY-20 and makes every district except for NY-23 pretty safe (my definition of "pretty safe" is at least 59% Obama for the Dems, and at least a 5-point McCain margin for the Republicans), NY-23 being 54-45 Obama.
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brittain33
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« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2010, 08:59:30 am »
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Torie, the scenario you describe happened in 2002 when there was a split legislature and a Republican governor. The congressional maps went to a judge or special master and the results were so disruptive to Republican incumbents that both sides freaked out and worked out an incumbent protection compromise that froze a Republican advantage in western NY and a Democratic advantage on LI. Republicans have more to lose than Democrats if it goes to the courts.

I also don't think there's much discipline of any type, party or moral, in the New York State Senate to count on. I wouldn't expect them to save the national GOP's bacon on this map any more than the Virginia Senate Democrats are going to use their leverage to upend the table in that state and force the Republicans to unpack the old gerrymander, or that Jan Schakowsky is going to torpedo a Dem gerrymander in Illinois because she would fight tooth and nail any watering down her district. It's a pipe dream.
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« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2010, 12:08:32 pm »
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I wrote the other day, if Democrats want to play hardball they must go to Grisanti and give him what he wants (a safe seat, a job in Cuomo's administration) just to vote with them on redistricting.

Also, if the courts draw the districts then it's almost certain that New York will be this decade's Texas. We'll just have to wait and see who will be the Democrats' Tom DeLay.
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Torie
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« Reply #30 on: December 22, 2010, 04:01:46 pm »
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Torie, the Republicans don't want Hinchey's district carved up. Look at where Ithaca and Binghamton go (students up the wazoo and the people who love them) if that district goes.

Ithaca could be appended to Rochester. As to a court drawing, it would be fun to see if the court map could be found on the internet. I don't recall it put any upstate Pubbie at any great risk, irrespective of where Ithaca was.
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« Reply #31 on: December 22, 2010, 04:33:25 pm »
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Torie, about NY, you need to understand that both sides will always work with each other to effect resolution that keeps the politicians'/government's/corporate interests' power and screws the people (not to mention the party activists on both sides).

The GOP has always worked with the Dems in order to protect their interests and will naturally give up other things to ensure that the present situation is preserved as much as possible.  The fight will never happen on these issues.  It may, for once, occur in other places, once the new session starts.  But don't bet on it.
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brittain33
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« Reply #32 on: December 22, 2010, 05:11:37 pm »
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Ithaca could be appended to Rochester. As to a court drawing, it would be fun to see if the court map could be found on the internet. I don't recall it put any upstate Pubbie at any great risk, irrespective of where Ithaca was.

As I recall, it shifted everyone around greatly in a counter-clockwise fashion. Sue Kelly's district looked more like Tom Sweeney's district and stretched up the eastern side of the state. Sweeney's district was half his, half McHugh's. I don't know who was put at risk other than that there was extensive change for change's sake without regard for the prior map. No incumbent likes that.
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brittain33
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« Reply #33 on: December 22, 2010, 05:14:08 pm »
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Torie, the Republicans don't want Hinchey's district carved up. Look at where Ithaca and Binghamton go (students up the wazoo and the people who love them) if that district goes.

Ithaca could be appended to Rochester.  

It could be in a Republican gerrymander, but if we're talking a court-drawn map where Hinchey's district is broken up, it's more likely to go in with Syracuse, or both Ithaca and Binghamton thrown in with Elmira and points west in a revised and renumbered NY-29. Or maybe they shift the liberal hellmouth and NY-24 to the Dems, I think right now that district encircles the town of Ithaca. Reed's district could probably take that and stay R--Buerkle's couldn't--but neither rep would want to.
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« Reply #34 on: December 23, 2010, 04:52:44 am »
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It could be in a Republican gerrymander, but if we're talking a court-drawn map where Hinchey's district is broken up, it's more likely to go in with Syracuse, or both Ithaca and Binghamton thrown in with Elmira and points west in a revised and renumbered NY-29. Or maybe they shift the liberal hellmouth and NY-24 to the Dems, I think right now that district encircles the town of Ithaca. Reed's district could probably take that and stay R--Buerkle's couldn't--but neither rep would want to.

Have you ever tried to draw a district with Elmira, Ithaca, Binghamton and points west in it?  It's an interesting experiment, given New York's shape.  Normally, I start from the corners.  New York's shape almost compels it, which usually ends up with Elmira and Binghamton in separate districts.  But if you just draw Upstate without worrying about Downstate, it makes things easier because you don't have to worry about the Bronx-Westchester bottleneck.  Leave out Orange County and points south, but keep all of Dutchess County except the area immediately surrounding Beacon.  That will allow you to draw 9 districts on a 27 district map.

If you assume a court will try to respect county and city lines to the extent possible, putting Binghamton, Elmira, Ithaca and their respective counties together in a district stretching from Stueben to Delaware Counties ends up throwing the Rochester and Syracuse suburbs together and ultimately ends up putting the city of Syracuse in another district, probably with Utica, possibly with the North Country, depending on how you want to draw things.  Monroe County pretty much gets its own district and Erie County a whole district plus a fraction.
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« Reply #35 on: December 23, 2010, 05:10:16 am »
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NY-26 and NY-29 should be merged to create one ultra Republican district. Meanwhile Slaughter's ultra-Democratic NY-28 can afford to take on some more Republicans. It's only fair.
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« Reply #36 on: December 23, 2010, 08:43:36 am »
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It's kind of hard not to give up seats when you overwhelmingly control the state Congressional delegation 21-8. 

An alternative way to look at is a downstate delegation of 19 districts that loses a seat plus an upstate delegation of 10 districts that loses a seat. The population loss neatly divides along those lines. The upstate delegation is 5-5. The downstate delegation is 16-3. Since the downstate delegation almost certainly must sacrifice a Democrat, it stands to reason that evenly divided upstate can and should sacrifice a Republican. There are multiple ways this can be done successfully, although NY-23 as it stands is not so much as a lean-D district and would need shoring up to be counted as a D district.
NY-26 and NY-29 should be merged to create one ultra Republican district. Meanwhile Slaughter's ultra-Democratic NY-28 can afford to take on some more Republicans. It's only fair.

It's interesting how you Dems believe that 'fairness' compels those who have more to give up proportionally more when it comes to taxes, but not when it comes to districts.  Smiley 
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brittain33
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« Reply #37 on: December 23, 2010, 09:16:53 am »
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Thank you to the moderators for your extensive clean-up of the mess I helped make last night, including the duplicate NJ threads. I woke up this morning thinking how helpful it would be if the NY discussion were hived off.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #38 on: January 01, 2011, 10:42:10 pm »
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Is this the decade they finally chop Staten Island in half?

You can turn the 13th into a 60% McCain district by ditching the areas along Northern Staten Island to the 8th and picking up all the bloodred territory in Queens.
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« Reply #39 on: January 01, 2011, 11:44:18 pm »
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Is this the decade they finally chop Staten Island in half?

You can turn the 13th into a 60% McCain district by ditching the areas along Northern Staten Island to the 8th and picking up all the bloodred territory in Queens.

Its possible if a pro-incumbent gerrymander is in order. Are you sure about those numbers, though?
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« Reply #40 on: January 01, 2011, 11:49:54 pm »
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Is this the decade they finally chop Staten Island in half?

You can turn the 13th into a 60% McCain district by ditching the areas along Northern Staten Island to the 8th and picking up all the bloodred territory in Queens.

Its possible if a pro-incumbent gerrymander is in order. Are you sure about those numbers, though?

He means Brooklyn - but the numbers sound right.
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muon2
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« Reply #41 on: January 02, 2011, 12:32:23 am »

Is this the decade they finally chop Staten Island in half?

You can turn the 13th into a 60% McCain district by ditching the areas along Northern Staten Island to the 8th and picking up all the bloodred territory in Queens.

Its possible if a pro-incumbent gerrymander is in order. Are you sure about those numbers, though?

If there is a compromise pro-incumbent gerrymander, I would imagine that the losses would be an upstate R and a downstate D. Any guesses as to who would be out of a seat in those cases?

He means Brooklyn - but the numbers sound right.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #42 on: January 02, 2011, 12:41:18 am »
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If there is a compromise pro-incumbent gerrymander, I would imagine that the losses would be an upstate R and a downstate D. Any guesses as to who would be out of a seat in those cases?

I fully expect the downstate D to be Ackerman.  It could be Crowley or Maloney, but Crowley is party boss and Maloney is just younger.  Ackerman is probably close to retiring anyway.

Looking upstate - it could really be anyone.  Probably depends on who the establishment likes least.
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muon2
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« Reply #43 on: January 02, 2011, 10:03:12 am »

If there is a compromise pro-incumbent gerrymander, I would imagine that the losses would be an upstate R and a downstate D. Any guesses as to who would be out of a seat in those cases?

I fully expect the downstate D to be Ackerman.  It could be Crowley or Maloney, but Crowley is party boss and Maloney is just younger.  Ackerman is probably close to retiring anyway.

Looking upstate - it could really be anyone.  Probably depends on who the establishment likes least.

If its Ackerman, I would guess that Weiner would take over a lot of that district. Much of the Brooklyn area of his CD 9 will be needed to expand 13 and the three black districts.
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« Reply #44 on: January 02, 2011, 08:47:52 pm »
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My map.

Slim chance of this happening I think, but I kind of like it because it is kind of clean.:

Red CD-4 (McCarthy) - This district barely goes into Queens.

Slate Green CD-6 (Meeks) - Majority AA district located in Queens.

Grey CD-7 (Ackerman, Crowley, Weiner) - Majority white district in Queens meant for Crowley, who I believe is a lot better liked than the other 2.

Purple CD-8 (Nadler) - Staten Island, South Brooklyn, Wall Street. He's probably not going to like it though.

Light Blue CD-9 (open) - New majority Hispanic district located in Queens/Bronx.

Pink CD-10 (Towns) - Majority AA district located in Brooklyn/Queens.

Lime Green CD-11 (Clarke) - Majority AA district located in Brooklyn.

Blue CD-12 (Velasqeuz) - Majority Hispanic district located in Brooklyn/Manhattan/Queens

Peach CD-13 (Grimm) - All the Republicans go here. 63% McCain.

Gold CD-14 (Maloney) - Midtown Manhattan district.

Orange CD-15 (Rangel) - Harlem based Manhattan district.

Bright Green CD-16 (Serrano) - Majority Hispanic district in the Bronx.

Dark Purple CD-17 (Engel) - The crossover district that goes into Westchester, although not too much. Most population is located in the Bronx. 31% White, 34% AA.


The 5th gets obliterated.

Beyond that, upstate, I gave safe districts to Lee and Reed. Hanna and Gibson were merged, while Buerkle got a torrid Syracuse to Ithaca district. I call that one the college towns. Hayworth gets an ugly gerryandered 53% McCain mess that dips into Yonkers. Bill Owens gets about what he has. Overall, upstate ends up being 6-5-1, with the 1 being Owens's 23rd.

Long Island, not much to say. Find all the Republican areas and give them to Peter King.
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« Reply #45 on: January 03, 2011, 12:47:27 am »

Here's one way to create an incumbent protection map for the downstate area. I assumed that downstate a D district is eliminated while upstate an R seat will go. I think I was able to find home locations for the incumbents, so let me know if I missed one. Here Ackerman and Weiner are placed together in the new CD 5. I also took the liberty of renumbering a couple of districts to better reflect the general pattern of increasing numbers from SE to NW.



CD 1 (blue, Bishop D): White 78%; Obama 55%
CD 2 (green, Israel D): White 77%; Obama 54%
CD 3 (purple, King R): White 88%; McCain 54%
CD 4 (red, McCarthy D): White 64%, Black 15%; Obama 60%
CD 5 (yellow, Ackerman D, Weiner D): White 52%, Asian 20%, Hispanic 18%; Obama 64%
CD 6 (teal, Meeks D): Black 52%, Hispanic 16%, White 16%; Obama 84%
CD 7 (grey, Crowley D): White 35%, Hispanic 30%, Asian 20%; Obama 74%
CD 8 (slate, Nadler D): White 61%, Asian 21%; Obama 69%
CD 9 (cyan, Grimm R): White 73%; McCain 54%
CD 10 (pink, Towns D): Black 57%, White 23%; Obama 85%
CD 11 (pale green, Clarke D): Black 54%, White 24%; Obama 92%
CD 12 (sky, Velazquez D): Hispanic 61%; Obama 85%
CD 13 (peach, Engel D): White 34%, Black 33%, Hispanic 26%; Obama 79%
CD 14 (olive, Maloney D): White 71%; Obama 80%
CD 15 (orange, Rangel D): Hispanic 46%, Black 28%, White 20%; Obama 93%
CD 16 (lime, Serrano D): Hispanic 63%, Black 30%; Obama 95%
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« Reply #46 on: January 03, 2011, 12:58:09 pm »
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The legendary Bay Ridge in Brooklyn just isn't as Pubbie as it used to be I guess, is it, Muon2?
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Smash255
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« Reply #47 on: January 03, 2011, 11:23:36 pm »
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Here's one way to create an incumbent protection map for the downstate area. I assumed that downstate a D district is eliminated while upstate an R seat will go. I think I was able to find home locations for the incumbents, so let me know if I missed one. Here Ackerman and Weiner are placed together in the new CD 5. I also took the liberty of renumbering a couple of districts to better reflect the general pattern of increasing numbers from SE to NW.



CD 1 (blue, Bishop D): White 78%; Obama 55%
CD 2 (green, Israel D): White 77%; Obama 54%
CD 3 (purple, King R): White 88%; McCain 54%
CD 4 (red, McCarthy D): White 64%, Black 15%; Obama 60%
CD 5 (yellow, Ackerman D, Weiner D): White 52%, Asian 20%, Hispanic 18%; Obama 64%
CD 6 (teal, Meeks D): Black 52%, Hispanic 16%, White 16%; Obama 84%
CD 7 (grey, Crowley D): White 35%, Hispanic 30%, Asian 20%; Obama 74%
CD 8 (slate, Nadler D): White 61%, Asian 21%; Obama 69%
CD 9 (cyan, Grimm R): White 73%; McCain 54%
CD 10 (pink, Towns D): Black 57%, White 23%; Obama 85%
CD 11 (pale green, Clarke D): Black 54%, White 24%; Obama 92%
CD 12 (sky, Velazquez D): Hispanic 61%; Obama 85%
CD 13 (peach, Engel D): White 34%, Black 33%, Hispanic 26%; Obama 79%
CD 14 (olive, Maloney D): White 71%; Obama 80%
CD 15 (orange, Rangel D): Hispanic 46%, Black 28%, White 20%; Obama 93%
CD 16 (lime, Serrano D): Hispanic 63%, Black 30%; Obama 95%


A couple years ago Ackerman moved to Roslyn Heights, so you would have him in McCarthy's district
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« Reply #48 on: January 04, 2011, 12:04:28 am »
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Smash, can you tell where that district ends?  Is that a five towns cut off? Does that reach up to RVC?
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Smash255
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« Reply #49 on: January 04, 2011, 02:21:55 am »
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Smash, can you tell where that district ends?  Is that a five towns cut off? Does that reach up to RVC?

It actually appears the five towns is split between three districts.  Inwood thrown in with Meeks's district, Lawrence, Ceaderhurst and Woodmere in King's district, with Hewlett remaining in McCarthy's district.  King's district also appears to take in the ultra orthodox precincts in Far Rockaway Queens along the border with Lawrence.  Rockville Centre looks like it is in King's district as well, though it is hard to tell.
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