US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135251 times)
Torie
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« Reply #375 on: September 16, 2011, 11:46:13 AM »
« edited: September 16, 2011, 12:01:56 PM by Torie »

What does DRA mean?  I am confused as to what point you are making regarding the two black Brooklyn CD's. I am also having trouble understanding your points about what is currently NY-12. but  I take it that you don't think a court will take what is currently NY-12 into the Bronx.  Is that correct?  If so, why?  If NY-12 does not go into the Bronx, while it can be made a bit over 50% Hispanic, it can't get anywhere near the 61% that I have it now. And then the issue is where does the current NY-09 go.  Does it just have a sliver to get it into Queens? By the way, Park Slope is about 7% black or so. There are no blacks in the current NY-09 land bridge, so you have a dilution issue. It also crosses borough lines. Everything of course is a balancing test.

I just can't image that a court will draw Muon2's erose mess, putting white communities together that have nothing in common, and long slivers everywhere. It really is quite disgusting. But of course it is all speculation. What I drew is what I would do a judge based on what I now know. But obviously, I don't know everything!  Smiley

I kind of hope that the parties deadlock, so that we can find out what a court does to settle our little spats. That would be just grand. I tried to find the map the court drew 10 years ago, based on which the parties cut their own deal to prop up incumbents, but was unable to find anything on the net. Pity that.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #376 on: September 16, 2011, 12:06:35 PM »

DRA is Dave's Redistricting App, of course. The Brooklyn districts have similar (somewhat smaller) discrepancies to the 6th.
There is no way any court will draw the 12th up to 61% Hispanic - given voting patterns, that kind of packing is possibly illegal even for the legislature (in a noncompact district). And there is no legislative intent of a max pack of Hispanics. There is legislative intent to have a weird hybrid of historic Williamsburg / North Brooklyn district and a Hispanic snakey thing.
You don't have a dilution issue - the districts remain majority Black. It's also not as if there were more Blacks in other directions (except Long Island, but Long Island is Long Island and New York City is New York City. And it's not as if there were any segregated Black neighborhoods in that part of Long Island. Though who knows. It's unlikely but not impossible.)
The current NY-9 district is the district that gets abolished. Probably. The most likely candidate by a mile or so, but not the only one. What's left in the north goes into the fifth, mostly (you might argue it's more a case of them being merged). What's left in the south goes into the 8th I guess... ugh, that's ugly.
Oh yeah. After drawing the 6th, 10th, 11th and 12th, I had a pocket of 9th territory in between (the whitest part of the landbridge...) so had to rework the Brooklyn Black districts so as to swallow that. They have the Blackness to spare for that, of course. (They were still both over 50% even in DRA figures, but I had to transfer some wholly Black territory from the one to the other for that.)

Have you seen my map back in the thread where I created an Asian plurality district in Queens? Cheesy
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #377 on: September 16, 2011, 12:19:50 PM »

I guess they figure that Velazquez's 12th is the only other target if the 9th survives.
Heh.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #378 on: September 16, 2011, 12:22:03 PM »



5th 40% Asian, 36% White, 16% Hispanic, 64.2% Obama. And open, apparently, at least til Weiner's successor has been chosen. Plurality Asian on VAP as well.
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Torie
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« Reply #379 on: September 16, 2011, 12:26:56 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2011, 02:44:04 PM by Torie »

Muon2 thinks Hispanic CD's ideally should be 65% Hispanic.  Tongue

When it comes to redistricting, there is no statutory guidance or "legislative intent" other than the VRA.  61% is certainly not packing for an Hispanic CD with low voter turnout and non citizens, particularly if it is not really possible to create another Hispanic CD. Whether a court does it is another matter (Muon2 thinks the Hispanics will be pushing for a high percentage but who knows?), but it is certainly legal in my opinion. My white Brooklyn CD certainly does combine communities of interest, and that counts - even for whites. To me it is much more natural to dump the Carolyn Maloney seat (current NY-04).

However, if I am representing the Pubbies in the legislature, and you the Dems, one thing that I do know. We will get a court drawn map! We don't seem to agree on much at all, and just "coincidentally" what you think will happen is a Dem wet dream, and what I think will happen is a quite a Pubbie one  (although maybe not quite as much wet as yours is for the Dems).  So we won't be able to agree on a map given our totally disparate views of the default option, and thus our "negotiation" will be very short, before we just shake hands, and file our lawsuits, and so forth.   Smiley  
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #380 on: September 16, 2011, 12:40:59 PM »

Muon2 thinks Hispanic CD's ideally should be 65% Hispanic.  Tongue
You mean Mexican CDs? You, like, understand that Puertoricans are citizens and a lot of New York whites are not citizens, right? And quite a few New York blacks neither, btw?
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Huh? Yes there is. It doesn't override the VRA, but it's a basic principle courts need to follow. It's why the court-drawn Texas map post-2000 was still a bit of a Dem gerry. 
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But you scrapped the 4th, 5th, 8th, and 12th and created several new districts.
Oh, and we're not discussing what I would draw as a judge at all if I'm allowed to choose my own definition - that's actually something like the map I just quoted.
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Torie
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« Reply #381 on: September 16, 2011, 02:12:30 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2011, 02:18:48 PM by Torie »

The court Texas map was drawn by a Dem judge who had improper contacts with Dem politicians, and the map was dumped and he was removed from the case.  I don't know the "principles" to which you refer that a court "should" follow, but what I think I know is that a fair court will have no interest in maintaining some bipartisan incumbent protection erose  gerrymandered monster. That map should be tossed into the garbage. I certainly hope it is. The principles of which I am aware are compactness, respect for communities of interest and jurisdictional boundaries, and that sort of thing, except to the extent the VRA forces a violation of those principles.

You don't seriously think the Pubs will agree to your map do you at this point? That dog just isn't going to hunt. The Pubs would be nutter to agree to tossing their new CD in Brooklyn into the dust bin without a fight. We shall see what happens. If the Dems think like you, I would be amazed if this doesn't go to court.

Oh, and Muon2 tossed out the 65% number in the context of NYC redistricting - not Texas redistricting. Do you think the turnout figures for Hispanics in NYC are that much higher than in Texas? Sure they might be some, but by how much? There are a lot of new Hispanics who are not Puerto Rican in the neighborhood.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #382 on: September 16, 2011, 02:27:54 PM »

You, like, understand that Puertoricans are citizens and a lot of New York whites are not citizens, right? And quite a few New York blacks neither, btw?

Lewis, I don't understand why your tone toward Torie is so disproportionately hostile on this board.
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« Reply #383 on: September 16, 2011, 02:43:19 PM »

You, like, understand that Puertoricans are citizens and a lot of New York whites are not citizens, right? And quite a few New York blacks neither, btw?

Lewis, I don't understand why your tone toward Torie is so disproportionately hostile on this board.
because his map doesn't gerrymander they Jewish Communities that have potential to vote republican.
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muon2
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« Reply #384 on: September 16, 2011, 08:08:14 PM »

My version was not intended to be what a court would draw, but rather what a court would accept. It was based in a June worldview which meant that NY-9 was on the chopping block, and would make an easy place for the two parties to come to agreement.

I assumed that the Brooklyn reps would largely want their own minority districts as is but with enough new pop to make them whole. As Lewis noted, I found that keeping the basic shape of the current CD-12 intact makes a formidable wall for the black districts, especially if CD-6 can't go far into Nassau. With my self-imposed constraints those four districts along with a much more GOP Staten Island CD pretty much wrote themselves.

Of course that was when it seemed in the GOP's interest to negotiate an end to NY-9 in exchange for much safer holdings for King and Grimm. In principle they could still do that, but they would need substantial control over the upstate map in exchange.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #385 on: September 16, 2011, 08:08:37 PM »

Muon2 thinks Hispanic CD's ideally should be 65% Hispanic.  Tongue

When it comes to redistricting, there is no statutory guidance or "legislative intent" other than the VRA.  61% is certainly not packing for an Hispanic CD with low voter turnout and non citizens, particularly if it is not really possible to create another Hispanic CD. Whether a court does it is another matter (Muon2 thinks the Hispanics will be pushing for a high percentage but who knows?), but it is certainly legal in my opinion. My white Brooklyn CD certainly does combine communities of interest, and that counts - even for whites. To me it is much more natural to dump the Carolyn Maloney seat (current NY-04).

However, if I am representing the Pubbies in the legislature, and you the Dems, one thing that I do know. We will get a court drawn map! We don't seem to agree on much at all, and just "coincidentally" what you think will happen is a Dem wet dream, and what I think will happen is a quite a Pubbie one  (although maybe not quite as much wet as yours is for the Dems).  So we won't be able to agree on a map given our totally disparate views of the default option, and thus our "negotiation" will be very short, before we just shake hands, and file our lawsuits, and so forth.   Smiley  

McCarthy. Carolyn McCarthy. Why are you hating on NY delegation so much? Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #386 on: September 16, 2011, 08:11:29 PM »

Ya, I got the two dumb blonds mixed up there. My bad!  Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #387 on: September 17, 2011, 04:36:49 AM »

You, like, understand that Puertoricans are citizens and a lot of New York whites are not citizens, right? And quite a few New York blacks neither, btw?

Lewis, I don't understand why your tone toward Torie is so disproportionately hostile on this board.
Because the smug snake got me angry... in Arizona, really.

Let's move on. I'm not angry now. Smiley

In principle they could still do that, but they would need substantial control over the upstate map in exchange.
Yeah, I was assuming that an upstate Democrat would go alongside Turner.

And yeah... what I had needs work. I do recall my initial response to muon's version of the seat.
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Torie
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« Reply #388 on: September 17, 2011, 01:30:57 PM »

My version was not intended to be what a court would draw, but rather what a court would accept. It was based in a June worldview which meant that NY-9 was on the chopping block, and would make an easy place for the two parties to come to agreement.

I assumed that the Brooklyn reps would largely want their own minority districts as is but with enough new pop to make them whole. As Lewis noted, I found that keeping the basic shape of the current CD-12 intact makes a formidable wall for the black districts, especially if CD-6 can't go far into Nassau. With my self-imposed constraints those four districts along with a much more GOP Staten Island CD pretty much wrote themselves.

Of course that was when it seemed in the GOP's interest to negotiate an end to NY-9 in exchange for much safer holdings for King and Grimm. In principle they could still do that, but they would need substantial control over the upstate map in exchange.

It will be hard to avoid a loss of a GOP seat upstate. It would have to be a rather hideous gerrymander really, and might still leave stuff pretty marginal for the Pubbies up there.  I would be surprised if that is the deal.  And given the big news of the Turner upset, to dump him when he has a natural CD, would cause a lot of Pubbies to be upset I would think. I would think a Pubbie representing a heavily Jewish district would help facilitate further GOP inroads among Jews in general over time. But politicians do do things which I find inexplicable I must admit.
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Torie
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« Reply #389 on: September 17, 2011, 01:32:10 PM »

Smug snake?  Huh
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jimrtex
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« Reply #390 on: September 18, 2011, 03:35:54 AM »


In Ohio, if R's were going to pass a disgusting map they had to do the black snake to Akron. That's not because the law actually demanded it - the law as its interpretation now stands technically doesn't demand any Black seat in Ohio at all: Any seat that stays in Cuyahoga fails the Gingles test because it's under 50.1 and any that head out to Akron fail the Gingles test because they do not represent a community of interest. Catch-22. It's because D's were going to use any easyish tangent to sue against an R gerrymander, and its existence puts the them in the Catch. These considerations don't apply here. One consideration does apply both here and in Ohio: the map doesn't need to be precleared.

Bronx, New York (Manhattan), and Kings (Brooklyn) counties are required to preclear (those bad old liberals had a literacy test, and Blacks didn't vote in as large numbers), and we can't update our metric because we know it would identify Minnesota and Hawaii as the racist hellholes that they are.

I think you would have a hard time convincing the DOJ or a judge that a district in Queens has no impact on districts drawn across the Queens/Kings border.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #391 on: September 18, 2011, 04:32:11 AM »

Bronx, New York (Manhattan), and Kings (Brooklyn) counties are required to preclear (those bad old liberals had a literacy test, and Blacks didn't vote in as large numbers)
Oh, lol. Didn't know that.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #392 on: September 18, 2011, 04:54:49 AM »

The court Texas map was drawn by a Dem judge who had improper contacts with Dem politicians, and the map was dumped and he was removed from the case.  
Federal courts are required to defer to State legislatures and State courts unless it is absolutely necessary for them to act.

As soon as the apportionment numbers came out in 2000, the Dems started suing because Texas didn't have 32 congressional districts.  They sued in both State court and in federal court.  They sued in Travis County so they could get a Democrat state judge, and they filed in the Eastern District in federal court because they thought they could get more favorable judges (one was Ann Richards' Secretary of State back when she was comparing redistricting to hog butchering and suggesting that federal judges would be better suited to a high chair than an elevated bench), and they didn't like the decisions from the Southern District where the 1990s litigation had happened (in 2011, the Western District gets the honors).

After the legislature failed to redistrict, and there was no indication that a special session would be called, the state court took jurisdiction, and the federal court said they would defer until a certain date in 2001 that was would allow them to act before the filing period, which begins in December preceding an election year.  The trial was actually held before both the state and federal court.

The State judge drew an extremely reasonable map, and then announced that he would be making a few minor tweaks before announcing his opinion, in response to some requests from the then Speaker of the House Pete Laney (who though a Democrat would be presumed to be representing the House).  It probably was not unlawful for him to have contact with the judge.

The state judge then came out with a drastically redrawn map.  This got appealed to the Texas Supreme Court who ruled that the judge had violated due process because he had never held hearings on his proposed order, and they then remanded it back to the district court.

The federal court then decided even if the state judge who had just been slapped around got around to holding new hearings, it would be too late, and they took over.

While State courts may exercise some political and legislative judgement in redistricting matters, federal courts are only expected to do the minimum necessary to remedy a map (this is why in 1996 they left all the weird boundaries that were found to be political gerrymanders, while removing all the weird district boundaries that were found to be racial gerrymanders.

The federal court decided their job was only to equalize population and draw two new districts.  While they took a lot of kinks out of the map, they left the general outlines of the map which included packs of Republican areas.   In effect, they were preserving the legislative intent of the 1991 Democrat legislature.  They specifically told the lawyer for the Texas NAACP Morris Overstreet (who had been a Texas appeals court judge) that no matter how sympathetic they were to his case, they did not have authority to draw a Black majority district in southwest Houston, and should petition the Texas legislature.

Clearly the 1st Amendment right to petition for a redress of grievances does not exist for a short time window every 10 years, and so when Morris Overstreet and like-minded Texans like Tom Delay petitioned the Texas legislature to draw congressional districts in 2003, the legislature drew new boundaries.  The 2001 federal court drawn boundaries were only remedial and intended to permit the 2002 election be held, but they preserved the 1990s Martin Frost gerrymander.

All the decisions from 2003 onward made it clear that the Texas legislature was fully entitled to replace the court-drawn plan from 2001 (which had preserved the 1990s Democrat gerrymander) and this "mid-decade redistricting" claim was nonsense.  It was the same federal court that drew the 2001 boundaries that approved the 2003 boundaries (one judge had died and was replaced).  The reason that the case took so long for the Supreme Court to rule on was that they had remanded it back to the district court after the Jubilier decision.   So the district court and 5th Circuit had approved the Texas map twice, along with the DOJ, before the US Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision decided they didn't like fajita strip districts.

I don't know the "principles" to which you refer that a court "should" follow, but what I think I know is that a fair court will have no interest in maintaining some bipartisan incumbent protection erose  gerrymandered monster. That map should be tossed into the garbage. I certainly hope it is. The principles of which I am aware are compactness, respect for communities of interest and jurisdictional boundaries, and that sort of thing, except to the extent the VRA forces a violation of those principles.
They did in Texas.

Clearly the New York legislature has never considered compactness, communities of interest, or jurisdictional boundaries as a basis for drawing districts.  What right does a federal court have to impose California sensibilities on New York?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #393 on: September 18, 2011, 05:18:58 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2011, 05:22:04 AM by Lewis Honeyboy Trondheim »

Yeah. What of the map can be preserved must be. When changing things at all, they're obviously not allowed to gerry.
However, the more I look at it... I guess the 9th can in fact be preserved and the 12th pretty much cannot without getting ever more erose. And that is indeed something a federal court should not be interested in. So I guess Torie wins that part. His Long Island stuff though is right out, obviously. I wonder if a merger of the 9th and 8th Brooklyn parts' isn't in the pipeline.

To put another way: When drawing the minority seats first, it was a grave mistake to begin with the Black ones - a mistake comparable to Torie's ignoring the 12th at all... oh dear.
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Torie
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« Reply #394 on: September 18, 2011, 10:21:08 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2011, 11:14:44 AM by Torie »

While federal courts generally follow the "least change" rule, state courts do not is my understanding. And state courts generally handle this task unless you get that incredible saga that jimrtex described in Texas. I believe a state court drew the NY map in 2001.  It was not a least change map is my recollection - at all. No, it was a sensible map.  And then the legislature cut a deal and drew its monstrosity to protect incumbents. I think I  know what  a state judge would do with the existing map - kill it!  Smiley

As I said before, I hope a state judge does draw a map just like last time. That will be the only way to find out of course just whose cyrstal ball is more accurate. In any event, I'm happy with my map now, even if Lewis is not. Tongue
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #395 on: September 18, 2011, 02:31:58 PM »

Yeah, so I arrive at something not too dissimilar in the parts that really matter, except I did it the hard way. Tongue A district for Turner in Southwest Brooklyn (and a little bit of Queens) does indeed make sense.
I'm not running the Queens-Brooklyn (now very much Queens) district up into the Bronx, though. Nosirree. And adding McCarthy's district to the stew is not necessary for VRA compliance, is disruptive to old districts/disregarding legislative intent, is not going to be popular with anybody, and - and this is a new argument - it doesn't even help the Republicans, either! Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #396 on: September 18, 2011, 04:13:57 PM »

Yeah, so I arrive at something not too dissimilar in the parts that really matter, except I did it the hard way. Tongue A district for Turner in Southwest Brooklyn (and a little bit of Queens) does indeed make sense.
I'm not running the Queens-Brooklyn (now very much Queens) district up into the Bronx, though. Nosirree. And adding McCarthy's district to the stew is not necessary for VRA compliance, is disruptive to old districts/disregarding legislative intent, is not going to be popular with anybody, and - and this is a new argument - it doesn't even help the Republicans, either! Tongue


No, it doesn't really, but it's right. It hews nicely to jurisdictional lines and maximized compactness. It is the CD that should be tossed by a court in my opinion. Deal with it Lewis! Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #397 on: September 18, 2011, 04:18:23 PM »

But why!?
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Torie
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« Reply #398 on: September 18, 2011, 04:22:15 PM »

I just told you why Lewis. I understand that you don't agree. That is why we have courts damn it. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #399 on: September 18, 2011, 04:27:40 PM »

That is why we have courts damn it. 

I thought that was just a make-work scheme to keep you and your kind off the streets?
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