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| | |-+  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 50723 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #450 on: February 12, 2012, 10:09:12 am »
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An Ithaca-Binghamton-Syracuse district would have at least 40,000 undergraduates from Syracuse, Cornell, SUNY-Binghamton, and Ithaca College.

very few vote.  or relatively few.
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« Reply #451 on: February 12, 2012, 11:27:57 am »
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An Ithaca-Binghamton-Syracuse district would have at least 40,000 undergraduates from Syracuse, Cornell, SUNY-Binghamton, and Ithaca College.

very few vote.  or relatively few.

Students are only one part of the college community - especially in Ithaca, there are other D-leaning constituencies.
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« Reply #452 on: February 12, 2012, 12:17:10 pm »
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You don't need Ithaca to boost NY-26. You just have to end the earmuffs, which is probably happening no matter what, since the main purpose of it wasn't to prop up Slaughter who was never in danger but that Quinn guy in Buffalo. So you can give the black part of Buffalo to Hochul (or Higgins and let Hochul take some white parts of Buffalo) and end up with two ~54-55% Obama districts, which is fine for that part of the state.

I did that (NY-26 took the black neighborhoods mostly in Buffalo), but the problem is that it dilutes the other Buffalo CD down too much, so NY-27 needs to make up for the lost Dems by going to Ithaca. Both CD's are about 57% Obama, and NY-26 is 52.5% average Dem based on some formula, and NY-27 is 54.5% average Dem.  Actually Buffalo can be fairly volatile, so anything less than these figures means the CD's are not safe Dem. As they are, they are only weak safe Dem.
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« Reply #453 on: February 12, 2012, 01:05:41 pm »
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Buffalo is "volatile"? More like fiercely loyal to its incumbents no matter what party they're from.
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« Reply #454 on: February 12, 2012, 01:39:12 pm »
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You can not get 3 safe Dem seats out of western NY, but shifting parts of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and possibly Monroe Cty from Slaughter to Hochul, Monroe county suburbs from Reed to Slaughter, and toxic Republican areas from Hochul to Reed provides a very satisfactory outcome for Dems without wasting the Ithaca votes to make a Strong Lean Dem seat into Safe.
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« Reply #455 on: February 12, 2012, 02:48:37 pm »
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You can not get 3 safe Dem seats out of western NY

Challenge accepted. Here's an attempt:



The Syracuse district remains relatively safe for a Democrat, even without Tompkins County, and Owens and Tonko aren't cut out. The Hudson Valley Republicans are left in with swing/lean R districts, but I didn't spend much time drawing these.

Districts are as follows:

   Oba           McC           ObaMar   Inc
18   50.0%   48.9%   1.1%   R - Hayworth
19   51.7%   46.5%   5.2%   R - Gibson
20   56.8%   41.6%   15.2%   D - Owens
21   57.8%   40.3%   17.5%   D - Tonko
22   45.4%   52.9%   -7.5%   R - Hanna
23   56.9%   41.3%   15.6%   R - Buerkle
24   59.3%   39.2%   20.1%   D - Slaughter
25   42.6%   55.9%   -13.3%   R - Reed
26   56.2%   42.3%   13.9%   D - Hochul
27   58.6%   39.8%   18.8%   D - Higgins

Nevertheless, I mostly agree with you - Hochul doesn't need a strong Dem district to win reelection, and any attempt to draw one will be very ugly. Ithaca's votes are probably more needed elsewhere
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« Reply #456 on: February 12, 2012, 03:46:02 pm »
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You can not get 3 safe Dem seats out of western NY, but shifting parts of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and possibly Monroe Cty from Slaughter to Hochul, Monroe county suburbs from Reed to Slaughter, and toxic Republican areas from Hochul to Reed provides a very satisfactory outcome for Dems without wasting the Ithaca votes to make a Strong Lean Dem seat into Safe.

Well, the idea was a compromise map, not a Dem gerry. 
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« Reply #457 on: February 12, 2012, 04:46:13 pm »
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Wouldn't a compromise map necessarily mean giving Hochul a decent chance at reelection and not privileging the GOP gerrymander already in place in western NY, though?
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« Reply #458 on: February 12, 2012, 05:02:58 pm »
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Does Hochul really need 55%+ or would 50% Obama or so be enough?


Also, what are discussions pertaining to Bob Turner's district? Have their been any leaks in that regard?
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« Reply #459 on: February 12, 2012, 05:07:55 pm »
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Does Hochul really need 55%+ or would 50% Obama or so be enough?

As long as her district is kept within Buffalo and Niagara counties, Hochul should do fine, even without a partisan advantage.
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« Reply #460 on: February 12, 2012, 05:08:37 pm »
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Wouldn't a compromise map necessarily mean giving Hochul a decent chance at reelection and not privileging the GOP gerrymander already in place in western NY, though?

True, that map is no more gerrymandered for the Democrats in Western NY than the status quo is gerrymandered for the Republicans. Slaughter's current district is a pretty bad gerrymander to waste Democratic votes.
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« Reply #461 on: February 12, 2012, 05:11:22 pm »
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Does Hochul really need 55%+ or would 50% Obama or so be enough?

As long as her district is kept within Buffalo and Niagara counties, Hochul should do fine, even without a partisan advantage.

Why is that?  And presumably the Obama percentage overstates the inherent Dem strength by a bit anyway.
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« Reply #462 on: February 12, 2012, 05:20:27 pm »
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Does Hochul really need 55%+ or would 50% Obama or so be enough?

As long as her district is kept within Buffalo and Niagara counties, Hochul should do fine, even without a partisan advantage.

Why is that?  And presumably the Obama percentage overstates the inherent Dem strength by a bit anyway.

The personality-based politics of Buffalo. Granted, if she were to run against a well-respected Republican, the situation might be different.

And (IIRC) in much of her current district, Obama underperformed relative to Democratic registration.
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« Reply #463 on: February 12, 2012, 05:21:22 pm »
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Wouldn't a compromise map necessarily mean giving Hochul a decent chance at reelection and not privileging the GOP gerrymander already in place in western NY, though?

A compromise map saves Turner, and loses a GOP seat upstate. I consider the Hochul seat a GOP seat, even though a Dem sits in it at the moment. In a compromise map, the whole state is gerrymandered actually. And the existing map is a compromise map, which both parties signed off on. A court is unlikely to give Hochul anything much better than she has now in any event. A court would likely make the Syracuse seat a Dem seat, and flush the Hinchey seat, and the rest of the upstate CD's from a partisan standpoint would not change much, except that the Buffalo seat would get much more Dem, since it was drawn to help out the Pub Quinn, now long gone, and the Rochester seat much more Pub, almost to the point where Slaughter might have some trouble, who has zero cross over appeal, and is basically an embarrassment.
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« Reply #464 on: February 12, 2012, 05:27:09 pm »
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Slaughter had no issues representing an exclusively Rochester-based seat until 2002.
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« Reply #465 on: February 12, 2012, 05:30:54 pm »
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"both parties signed off on it" but as with the Illinois and California 2001-2002 maps, it was an incumbent-protection map that defended Republican advantages and piled up Dem votes in wasted piles. The compromise helped Dems on Long Island, helped Republicans upstate, and served Republican purposes by ensuring that the guy who lost his R seat was a left-leaning Republican in swing district (Gilman).

Don't forget, the Pubbies had the governor's seat and an active VP as well as the state senate. There was a thumb on the scale.

P.S. Yes, CA Dems had issues with non-citizens and non-voters, so it's not a perfect analogy.
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« Reply #466 on: February 12, 2012, 05:31:00 pm »
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Slaughter had no issues representing an exclusively Rochester-based seat until 2002.

That was a much smaller district - and the most Democratic parts of it have lost population.
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« Reply #467 on: February 12, 2012, 05:33:26 pm »
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Slaughter had no issues representing an exclusively Rochester-based seat until 2002.

That was a much smaller district - and the most Democratic parts of it have lost population.

It would not be much of a difference. She represented a Monroe County district in the past and by rights she should represent a Monroe County district now. The county's population is almost exactly 1 CD in population and would be Likely D in a normal election. She represented a district like that for well over a decade before Dick Cheney drew her into a hyper-Dem district to kick out LaFalce and protect Reynolds.
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« Reply #468 on: February 12, 2012, 05:33:36 pm »
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Plus ultra safe seats tend to dum down incumbents and make them less strong politically.
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« Reply #469 on: February 12, 2012, 05:35:06 pm »
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Slaughter is very old at this point, too.

Also, Rochester has both trended D and is incumbent friendly.
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« Reply #470 on: February 12, 2012, 05:37:33 pm »
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If you pull in Ithaca, you can do it; I wasn't including that in my terms for western NY for what I meant. But granted, Rochester to Ithaca is not a ridiculous stretch.
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« Reply #471 on: February 12, 2012, 05:42:50 pm »
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I'm inclined to believe the rumors about McCarthy's seat being on the block because it makes so much sense, demographically and politically.

With McCarthy being retired, dismantling Hochul's seat as a Republican loss doesn't make sense to me. Wouldn't they just dismantle Hinchey and make Buerkle's seat into a Dem seat? At that point, the earmuffs gerrymander gets unpacked and any change helps Hochul.
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« Reply #472 on: February 12, 2012, 06:11:32 pm »
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I'm inclined to believe the rumors about McCarthy's seat being on the block because it makes so much sense, demographically and politically.

With McCarthy being retired, dismantling Hochul's seat as a Republican loss doesn't make sense to me. Wouldn't they just dismantle Hinchey and make Buerkle's seat into a Dem seat? At that point, the earmuffs gerrymander gets unpacked and any change helps Hochul.

Yes, that is the natural thing to do, and what I think a court would do, but no, it won't help Hochul much. In my "court drawn" map above, the partisan make-up of Hochul's seat stays about the same (51.7% McCain, 50 basis points more Dem than it is now). The earmuffs gerrymander is almost strictly a Buffalo v Rochester CD affair, involving just those two CD's. Hochul's CD just takes up the land bridge between the muffs is all along the lake, which is GOP territory. All the territory around Hochul's CD is GOP actually. If the Dems want to make it more Dem, they will have to pay for it. Nothing is for free. Or they can leave it alone, but then the odds are two incumbents will go down, one Pub (Buerkle), and Hochul, with Owens always kind of vulnerable, and the former Hinchey CD marginal, along with the CD running from Albany down to Dutchess County, now held by a Pub. Presumably in a party deal map, the latter two CD's would cease to be marginal, with the Albany to Dutchess Pub getting a better CD, and the former Hinchey CD made more Dem.

Upstate NY is not a good place for the Dems, in part because the Buffalo CD gets a lot more Dem right out of the box, sucking up Dems there, and in part because Slaughter is so weak, and in part because the Hinchey CD is so ridiculous.

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« Reply #473 on: February 12, 2012, 06:44:17 pm »
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I don't understand why the earmuffs should be considered off-limits to Hochul. She represents suburban Buffalo. In the previous iteration, LaFalce had Niagara Falls and half of Buffalo. Why shouldn't the courts create a district based on Rochester and two districts based on Erie-Niagara? Especially when that is exactly what we had in the 1990s?

Your court-drawn map makes Hochul a dead duck by creating a 60% Obama district in Buffalo. Such and outcome is not impossible. But I don't see why it's more probable than restoring the 1990s map with allowances for population loss now that Hinchey has conveniently removed an obstacle to eastward expansion.

And yes, there can indeed be a free lunch when so very, very many Dem votes are currently wasted in the earmuffs district. Pay for it that way. There's plenty in the bank!
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« Reply #474 on: February 12, 2012, 08:23:01 pm »
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You don't need Ithaca to boost NY-26. You just have to end the earmuffs, which is probably happening no matter what, since the main purpose of it wasn't to prop up Slaughter who was never in danger but that Quinn guy in Buffalo. So you can give the black part of Buffalo to Hochul (or Higgins and let Hochul take some white parts of Buffalo) and end up with two ~54-55% Obama districts, which is fine for that part of the state.

I did that (NY-26 took the black neighborhoods mostly in Buffalo), but the problem is that it dilutes the other Buffalo CD down too much, so NY-27 needs to make up for the lost Dems by going to Ithaca. Both CD's are about 57% Obama, and NY-26 is 52.5% average Dem based on some formula, and NY-27 is 54.5% average Dem.  Actually Buffalo can be fairly volatile, so anything less than these figures means the CD's are not safe Dem. As they are, they are only weak safe Dem.


At 57% Obama, they would be safe Dem.  Higgins won 61% in 54% Obama NY-27 in 2010, which was the worst year for Democrats since 1894.  57% Obama would make them safe districts. 
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