Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 02, 2014, 02:07:17 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  US House Redistricting: New York
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28 29 30 31 32 ... 42 Print
Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 48601 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #650 on: March 04, 2012, 03:25:11 pm »
Ignore

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez. 

The real reason why is because Nydia's residence is in the tiny Hispanic enclave near the harbor by Sunset Park.

Is she that compelled to live in the district she represents? Gutierrez hasn't been living in his IL-4 district for some years now, though the new map puts him back within his district boundaries.

The residency laws here are really lax, but if you've met Velasquez a number of times, as I have, you would discover that she's as stubborn as a mule (and looks kinda like one too).
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8573


View Profile
« Reply #651 on: March 04, 2012, 03:25:52 pm »

Isn't the special master drawing the maps deliberately being kept in the dark per the judge's order as to where incumbents live?

That's the way I read the order. No political data or incumbent addresses. Seeing that I drew my map the same way, and I only looked at political data afterwards.
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8573


View Profile
« Reply #652 on: March 04, 2012, 03:29:51 pm »

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez. 

The real reason why is because Nydia's residence is in the tiny Hispanic enclave near the harbor by Sunset Park.

Is she that compelled to live in the district she represents? Gutierrez hasn't been living in his IL-4 district for some years now, though the new map puts him back within his district boundaries.

The residency laws here are really lax, but if you've met Velasquez a number of times, as I have, you would discover that she's as stubborn as a mule (and looks kinda like one too).

For Congress the only rule is that they live in the state unless NY believes they can make more stringent conditions than the US Constitution. IL has no congressional residency statutes at all, but we do have members like Rush who have a history of wanting their residence in the district and all possible opponents out. Perhaps Velasquez is from the Rush school of residency.
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #653 on: March 04, 2012, 03:31:57 pm »
Ignore

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.
unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.
It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

Why are you so sure it is animated by Jew hatred as opposed to securing partisan advantage? How can you be so confident about the motives of people?  Sure one can hypothesize until the cows come home, but to make a flat out assertion is not something that well, a lawyer would do, because the facts just don't support making a clear and convincing case that the motive is in fact based on ethnic animus rather than what is typically the case, which is about getting as many of your team elected as possible.


this answer your question
Mind you by the way I don't have a problem carving up Borough Park either since it's basically the most fascist place in America. A place that votes similar to Iraqi "elections" under Saddam Hussein that is mostly populated by zealots who salivate over murdered Palestinian children and want to massacre Iranians? Terrible terrible place. And that's not even getting started on their views on women...

everything this guy has ever said on this forum regarding Jews screams he's an anti semite.

Oh, well that reflects the opinion of one poster about the political and social opinions one one small segment of the Jewish population. That poster posts similar things about  Dutch-Americans in their enclaves, and the LDS, and any other group whose opinions in high percentages he finds execrable. It is not about their ethnicity, it is about their opinions. Is he being perhaps excessively intolerant about that, using hyperbolic language in some instances? Of course in my opinion. But it's not Jew hatred qua Jew hatred.

Let's move on, if we possibly can. Thanks.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2012, 03:40:01 pm by Torie »Logged

krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5783


View Profile
« Reply #654 on: March 04, 2012, 04:45:54 pm »
Ignore

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.
unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.
It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

Why are you so sure it is animated by Jew hatred as opposed to securing partisan advantage? How can you be so confident about the motives of people?  Sure one can hypothesize until the cows come home, but to make a flat out assertion is not something that well, a lawyer would do, because the facts just don't support making a clear and convincing case that the motive is in fact based on ethnic animus rather than what is typically the case, which is about getting as many of your team elected as possible.

As I understand his argument:

The white population in South Brooklyn, which composes of slightly more than a Congressional district, was cracked into 5 (8, 9, 10, 11, 13) when they used to vote Democrat. At the time the current mapping was drawn Al Gore won the area handily.

I wouldn't call it partisanship; rather, there are currently 13 districts in New York City and more than 13 communities that want districts to themselves. So, they picked one to hose.
Logged
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #655 on: March 04, 2012, 06:27:38 pm »
Ignore

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

That's boringly easy, though. All you have to do is connect it with Flatbush and East Flatbush. I also don't think specifically trying to piss somebody else off is something you should be endeavoring to do right after church.

Well I was kind of being playful there just due to how he's acting over it (as evidenced by the latest reaction as well), just pointing out that it's possible not carve it up and yet still eliminate its influence in voting. Something obviously that many Jewish Democratic leaders in New York wouldn't mind doing obviously. For the record it's even easier to do that with the Russians, that obviously doesn't make such a map an anti-Russian map, or my plan to put Staten Island in a Democratic seat by adding Park Slope an anti-Italian map. The poster in question has also complained about and attacked far more Jews than I have, though he resorts to a sort of No True Scotsman in his definition of anti-Semitism.

Anyway that map is coming up anyway. Though I know it would never pass since many current Democratic incumbents wouldn't like it.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12483


View Profile
« Reply #656 on: March 04, 2012, 06:50:10 pm »
Ignore

Well, I didn't even get to church this morning because I have a bad head cold and stayed up all night doing homework, so you're probably marginally more right with God than I am at the moment anyway. Tongue I'm planning to go to Nones on Wednesday instead.

I was playing around with upstate and it's actually possible to make every district along the eastern border pretty likely Democratic most years assuming Bill Owens doesn't get complacent. You just have to make clever use of Westchester, Poughkeepsie, and the Capital District.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2012, 07:00:16 pm by Nathan »Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4852
United States


View Profile
« Reply #657 on: March 04, 2012, 06:56:29 pm »
Ignore

Well, I didn't even get to church this morning because I have a bad head cold and stayed up all night doing homework, so you're probably marginally more right with God than I am at the moment anyway. ;P I'm planning to go to Nones on Wednesday instead.

I was playing around with upstate and it's actually possible to make every district along the eastern border pretty likely Democratic most years assuming Bill Owens doesn't get complacent. You just have to make clever use of Westchester, Poughkeepsie, and the Capital District.

That's why the old map is not a Democratic gerrymander overall even though the downstate portion is somewhat (see pages of argument about Orthodox Jews). The old upstate map is quite friendly to Republicans in many places, in particular the areas around the earmuffs. From my perspective, New York politics is perhaps too strange of an animal for me to even be able to determine what a safe district for each party is upstate, but it certainly looks more like a Republican gerrymander upstate to me.
Logged

black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #658 on: March 04, 2012, 07:04:33 pm »
Ignore

So it turns out you don't even need the black areas, you can connect it to Park Slope and the area is already 62% Obama at less than 200k residents. I should draw that one too. By the line of argument being used here though Nadler's district is an anti-Semitic one since it's basically the same principle in neutralizing the areas in Brooklyn, though it does so in a rather ugly way.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12483


View Profile
« Reply #659 on: March 04, 2012, 07:06:14 pm »
Ignore

That's why the old map is not a Democratic gerrymander overall even though the downstate portion is somewhat (see pages of argument about Orthodox Jews). The old upstate map is quite friendly to Republicans in many places, in particular the areas around the earmuffs. From my perspective, New York politics is perhaps too strange of an animal for me to even be able to determine what a safe district for each party is upstate, but it certainly looks more like a Republican gerrymander upstate to me.

Upstate politics is highly personal (see Carl Paladino approaching or breaking sixty per cent pretty much everywhere west of the Finger Lakes while losing almost two-to-one statewide) and if somebody, especially an incumbent, gets a district that's just a few PVI points towards his or her party he or she is pretty much impossible to expunge except in wave years. Districts that are considered 'safe' in upstate New York have PVIs around 5 or 6. The only non-Westchester upstate district with a PVI greater than 6 in either direction is the earmuffs.

BRTD, if you want to challenge yourself, you should also be using the Orthodox areas in Midwood and points south for this exercise.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2012, 07:09:24 pm by Nathan »Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #660 on: March 04, 2012, 07:09:39 pm »
Ignore

Ah well that too probably isn't too hard. Actually if Velazquez lives where Sam says she does she'd probably end up representing this district and it could even be Hispanic majority (though I'd prefer to keep it in Brooklyn, I really don't like the districts that spill all around multiple boroughs, especially since this is often done for no real discernible reason.)
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #661 on: March 04, 2012, 07:32:33 pm »
Ignore

OK here is a combination of hasids, hipsters, Hispanics and some Asians. Though the Hispanics probably won't like it since it probably won't elect a Hispanic once Velázquez retires, (26.4% Hispanic VAP now) but it's 66% Obama and obviously still safe D. I even got the hasids in Williamsburg who whine about female cyclists in:

Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
NY Jew
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 543


View Profile
« Reply #662 on: March 04, 2012, 10:33:52 pm »
Ignore

OK here is a combination of hasids, hipsters, Hispanics and some Asians. Though the Hispanics probably won't like it since it probably won't elect a Hispanic once Velázquez retires, (26.4% Hispanic VAP now) but it's 66% Obama and obviously still safe D. I even got the hasids in Williamsburg who whine about female cyclists in:


you do realize this seat could easily elect someone like Ruben Diaz.
Logged
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #663 on: March 05, 2012, 12:09:39 am »
Ignore

He is from the Bronx, so no.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
NY Jew
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 543


View Profile
« Reply #664 on: March 05, 2012, 12:17:06 am »
Ignore

He is from the Bronx, so no.
like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5783


View Profile
« Reply #665 on: March 05, 2012, 12:21:37 am »
Ignore

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez. 

I continue to maintain that "hipsters" are a coherent CoI which keeps getting unfairly sliced and diced in all of these maps.  There are plenty of white liberals in Brooklyn, why don't they have a seat? Tongue

Hmph. Would you attach them to the east side, the west side, or to Astoria?
Logged
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #666 on: March 05, 2012, 12:25:13 am »
Ignore

He is from the Bronx, so no.
like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"

Is there any such notable person in the district? I have a tough time seeing them get the hipsters' vote.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
NY Jew
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 543


View Profile
« Reply #667 on: March 05, 2012, 12:33:50 am »
Ignore

He is from the Bronx, so no.
like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"

Is there any such notable person in the district? I have a tough time seeing them get the hipsters' vote.
they wouldn't need the hipster vote.
Logged
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #668 on: March 05, 2012, 03:39:34 am »
Ignore

I'm almost done with a pretty interesting map:

-Borough Park, Midwood and the really conservative areas in Gravesend (though I understand the Jews there aren't Hasids) in a majority black seat.
-The conservative Russian areas in a plurality black seat.
-Staten Island actually in a Democratic-leaning seat.
-The long awaited Brooklyn white liberals seat, though it's actually a Brooklyn/Queens mixture with some distinctly non-liberal parts in Queens.
-A left overs seat which is also Hispanic plurality and Velazquez probably wouldn't mind.

Now here's the crazy thing, the white liberal seat that is majority white VAP also has the highest Obama % out of all of those except the Hispanic plurality leftovers seat that has few blacks. You can draw some crazy things in NYC.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Аverroës Nix
Averroës Nix
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9878
United States


View Profile
« Reply #669 on: March 05, 2012, 08:20:08 am »
Ignore

Source from within the Cuomo administration on current proposed lines: "If they are drafting now then they are drafting for a veto."

Source
Logged

muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8573


View Profile
« Reply #670 on: March 05, 2012, 08:49:12 am »

Source from within the Cuomo administration on current proposed lines: "If they are drafting now then they are drafting for a veto."

Source

It appears that Cuomo is looking for a constitutional change to redistricting in the future in exchange for his support of a map this cycle.
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
traininthedistance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3339


View Profile
« Reply #671 on: March 05, 2012, 08:55:28 am »
Ignore

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez.  

I continue to maintain that "hipsters" are a coherent CoI which keeps getting unfairly sliced and diced in all of these maps.  There are plenty of white liberals in Brooklyn, why don't they have a seat? Tongue

Hmph. Would you attach them to the east side, the west side, or to Astoria?

NOTA.  A "hipster" district would be pretty similar to what I already proposed as the Ninth District here:



though it would withdraw somewhat from South Brooklyn to take in (the whiter areas of) Fort Greene, Ditmas Park, and more of East Village/Alphabet City- the one part of Manhattan that does belong there.  There would be various ripple effects, but the surrounding districts could mostly be kept as is.

I suppose Long Island City could also be a reasonable addition.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2012, 09:00:04 am by traininthedistance »Logged



Economic: -4.45
Social: -6.52
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8573


View Profile
« Reply #672 on: March 05, 2012, 09:29:31 am »

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez.  

I continue to maintain that "hipsters" are a coherent CoI which keeps getting unfairly sliced and diced in all of these maps.  There are plenty of white liberals in Brooklyn, why don't they have a seat? Tongue

Hmph. Would you attach them to the east side, the west side, or to Astoria?

NOTA.  A "hipster" district would be pretty similar to what I already proposed as the Ninth District here:



though it would withdraw somewhat from South Brooklyn to take in (the whiter areas of) Fort Greene, Ditmas Park, and more of East Village/Alphabet City- the one part of Manhattan that does belong there.  There would be various ripple effects, but the surrounding districts could mostly be kept as is.

I suppose Long Island City could also be a reasonable addition.

What are the BVAPs on your CD 6, 10, and 11?
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
traininthedistance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3339


View Profile
« Reply #673 on: March 05, 2012, 09:38:50 am »
Ignore


What are the BVAPs on your CD 6, 10, and 11?

45.5, 51.0, 51.7.  Enough voters in Meeks' district are either black Hispanics being counted as Hispanic, or "Other" voters from the Caribbean, such that in actuality he might be over 50%.  And if he isn't, I would be surprised and dismayed if it was required to take him into Nassau to hit a magic number when that seat will safely elect an AA anyway.
Logged



Economic: -4.45
Social: -6.52
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8573


View Profile
« Reply #674 on: March 05, 2012, 10:07:40 am »


What are the BVAPs on your CD 6, 10, and 11?

45.5, 51.0, 51.7.  Enough voters in Meeks' district are either black Hispanics being counted as Hispanic, or "Other" voters from the Caribbean, such that in actuality he might be over 50%.  And if he isn't, I would be surprised and dismayed if it was required to take him into Nassau to hit a magic number when that seat will safely elect an AA anyway.

It's an interesting issue. The "Other" category is unusually large in that district, but I don't know if there are any cases that say that they should count as black or as a coalition partner for purposes of electing a black candidate of choice. The difference matters for voting rights purposes, but I suspect that Meeks would take your district if it was helping make other districts lean more D.
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28 29 30 31 32 ... 42 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines