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« Reply #750 on: March 06, 2012, 03:19:40 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.
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« Reply #751 on: March 06, 2012, 03:28:34 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.


Buerkle's CD, old NY-25, now NY-24, didn't change much, either in geography (except to expand), or in partisan coloration.

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« Reply #752 on: March 06, 2012, 03:32:59 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.


Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?
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« Reply #753 on: March 06, 2012, 03:42:41 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  
If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)



The Democrats have about 15 or so long term influential incumbents to yell at Sheldon Silver to cut a deal.

The GOP has 1. An important one of course.

I don't see any possible way this map stands.

The Pubs had better demand getting Turner back in exchange for propping up the Long Island Dems, and other assorted and sundry incumbents (except for Hochul) or I will join NYJew in howling myself. Tongue

If I were a Pub in the NY legislature, I would refuse to abandon this map absent something pretty succulent. I quite like this map, the Turner issue aside.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 03:44:12 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #754 on: March 06, 2012, 03:43:49 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.


Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?
around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #755 on: March 06, 2012, 03:45:20 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.


Buerkle's CD, old NY-25, now NY-24, didn't change much, either in geography (except to expand), or in partisan coloration.



Um, that picture is really kind of misleading, as it cuts off a nearly 100,000-person strong section of the old NY-25 in Monroe County.  The district's center may not have been near Rochester, but it definitely contained more Rochester suburbs than it does now.

Plugging in DRA, it appears the part Buerkle lost is about 97,000 people who voted for Obama 51-48, whereas she gains 142K voters who were slightly more Dem, 54-44 Obama.  So it moves a point to the left, probably.
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« Reply #756 on: March 06, 2012, 03:46:28 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.


Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?
around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)

It means what do the odds makers think as to the likelihood of one guy or the other winning. If you handicap a race, that means you are placing odds on it, just like betting on the horses at the race track.

It sounds like a pretty Pub friendly district. Why was a Dem representing it?
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« Reply #757 on: March 06, 2012, 03:47:15 pm »
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Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.
some more info on how the jewish community was gerrymandered because of that seat.

http://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/09/nyregion/solarz-will-run-in-district-tailored-as-a-hispanic-seat.html

Quote
The district, which includes only about 20 percent of Mr. Solarz's current base, is 54 percent Hispanic, 18 percent black and about 12 percent Asian. Mr. Solarz's current Brooklyn district, the 13th, is heavily Jewish.




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« Reply #758 on: March 06, 2012, 03:49:31 pm »
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Because it's the Jewish Parts of Brooklyn and while Republicans can get 90% there they can also get 0%.

But won't in this election, of course. Ought to be an R pickup.



Buerkle would have needed her district to get a good more R to have anything like even odds of not having a Democrat in there by 2016 til the end of the decade. Staying the same wouldn't have helped her much.
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« Reply #759 on: March 06, 2012, 03:52:37 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.


Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?
around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)

It means what do the odds makers think as to the likelihood of one guy or the other winning. If you handicap a race, that means you are placing odds on it, just like betting on the horses at the race track.

It sounds like a pretty Pub friendly district. Why was a Dem representing it?

the Republicans haven't put up a candidate in at least 8 years.  In the last election a 19 year old Orthodox kid got 27% on less then 1000$ running only on the Conservative line.

At first all the political pundits thought Fidler (the democrat) was a shoein but after Orthodox Jews turned marriage redefinition into a issue Fidler has tried to use everysingle dirty trick in the book to win this seat (trying to link a Storobin (a Russian Jew) to Neo Nazi's and now trying to link him to defending pedophiles)
Though there are 60 or so rabbis from all different backgrounds who signed different letters forbidding voting for Fidler.
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« Reply #760 on: March 06, 2012, 03:56:15 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.


Buerkle's CD, old NY-25, now NY-24, didn't change much, either in geography (except to expand), or in partisan coloration.



Um, that picture is really kind of misleading, as it cuts off a nearly 100,000-person strong section of the old NY-25 in Monroe County.  The district's center may not have been near Rochester, but it definitely contained more Rochester suburbs than it does now.

Plugging in DRA, it appears the part Buerkle lost is about 97,000 people who voted for Obama 51-48, whereas she gains 142K voters who were slightly more Dem, 54-44 Obama.  So it moves a point to the left, probably.

Yes, I didn't notice the Monroe salient, so I understand Sam's point now, except that Buerkle lives in Syracuse, not Monroe County, so maybe I still don't understand it. Her CD got 55 basis points (.55%) more Dem to be exact. The Obama share of the two party vote went up from 56.7% to 57.2%. Yes of course she is vulnerable, unless she is in the mensch category. But she is hardly "dead meat" it seems to me.
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« Reply #761 on: March 06, 2012, 03:58:15 pm »
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Because it's the Jewish Parts of Brooklyn and while Republicans can get 90% there they can also get 0%.

But won't in this election, of course. Ought to be an R pickup.



Buerkle would have needed her district to get a good more R to have anything like even odds of not having a Democrat in there by 2016 til the end of the decade. Staying the same wouldn't have helped her much.

Yes, Lewis, that goes without saying.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 04:04:18 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #762 on: March 06, 2012, 04:00:54 pm »
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Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.
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« Reply #763 on: March 06, 2012, 04:05:04 pm »
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Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.

Seems like the right question to ask doesn't it?  Tongue
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« Reply #764 on: March 06, 2012, 04:06:33 pm »
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Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.
Does the same special master draw the State Lege now or will that be separate?
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« Reply #765 on: March 06, 2012, 04:26:18 pm »
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Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.
Does the same special master draw the State Lege now or will that be separate?

As of right now, the special master isn't drawing the State Legislature maps.  They are going through a second draft at the legislative level.  Governor Cuomo has threatened to veto them unless done in a nonpartisan manner, which these maps clearly are not.  But he might let them pass if he gets a constitutional amendment to make redistricting non-partisan in the future as part of the bargain.  

The gerrymandering in the state plans is superb.  If gerrymandering were an art, the State Senate plan would be a classic.  It continues the overrepresentation of Upstate and breaks up areas in Westchester and Long Island in order to keep or make Republican seats.  The Assembly map is not as blatant, but still a good job of gerrymandering.

The first draft of the state maps are here:
http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/maps/
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« Reply #766 on: March 06, 2012, 04:45:46 pm »
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Lewis that cat pic in your signature looks exactly like the best cat I ever had when I was a teenager, Tawny. She was part Maine Coon cat, and at once affectionate, playful (she would even fetch), and take walkies with you. I felt very sad when I had to abandon her when I left home for college. I still miss her. Sad
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« Reply #767 on: March 06, 2012, 05:15:56 pm »
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Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.
Does the same special master draw the State Lege now or will that be separate?

As of right now, the special master isn't drawing the State Legislature maps.  They are going through a second draft at the legislative level.  Governor Cuomo has threatened to veto them unless done in a nonpartisan manner, which these maps clearly are not.  But he might let them pass if he gets a constitutional amendment to make redistricting non-partisan in the future as part of the bargain. 

The gerrymandering in the state plans is superb.  If gerrymandering were an art, the State Senate plan would be a classic.  It continues the overrepresentation of Upstate and breaks up areas in Westchester and Long Island in order to keep or make Republican seats.  The Assembly map is not as blatant, but still a good job of gerrymandering.

The first draft of the state maps are here:
http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/maps/

actually the Senate map stunk for example if they wanted to they could easily win a third seat in Brooklyn. but they put some of the most Conservative parts of Brooklyn in either Savino or Sampson.  they could have had a chance for a seat in Northern Queens if they would have attached it to the Bronx (they also put some of the more conservitive parts of Forest Hills in a democrat district). and they could have picked up a seat if they wanted to in Rockland County.
The map just looks like a good job of gerrymandering because they made weird lines just for the sake of making weird lines (a few of which were counter productive).
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« Reply #768 on: March 06, 2012, 07:28:10 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  
If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)



The Democrats have about 15 or so long term influential incumbents to yell at Sheldon Silver to cut a deal.

The GOP has 1. An important one of course.

I don't see any possible way this map stands.

The meme has been that Republicans in the Senate are so desperate to pass their own map they will sell out Congressional Republicans. Perhaps, we will see  15 long term influential Democratic Congressional incumbents pressuring the Democrats in the state House to go along with the Republican Senate gerrymander for what is at best a balanced Congressional map.
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« Reply #769 on: March 06, 2012, 10:45:40 pm »
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any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 12:27:36 am by NY Jew »Logged
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« Reply #770 on: March 06, 2012, 11:06:30 pm »
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Numbers were crunched on DKE.

Kind of a crappy map for the Democrats. The immediate casualties are split (Hochul and the Hincheymander for the Dems, Turner and Buerkle for the Republicans), but it puts Israel and McCarthy in marginal (albeit Dem-leaning) districts. Yes, it does improve the Dem performance in most of the upstate districts held by Republicans, but it's not enough to hurt any of them except for Gibson and maybe Hayworth. Plus it doesn't help out Owens at all.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 11:08:56 pm by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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« Reply #771 on: March 07, 2012, 12:54:26 am »
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any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 
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« Reply #772 on: March 07, 2012, 01:27:53 am »
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The most acceptable map so far. I very much like that they ended both of the partisan gimmicks in Western NY (Earmuffs and Buffalo split) and they restored Chautauqua to the Southern Tier seat like it has been for decades prior (maybe even a century, I now it was in the 1940's, though there were two Southern Tier seats at that point with the region divided east and west).

I like what they did with Hotchul seat.

They made Buerkle's seat more of a Syracuse metro seat with all of Cayuga. It would have been even better to have found a way to pull it out of all or part of Wayne and give it either Cortland or Seneca. I tried experimenting with that the other day and it messed up my preffered Southern Tier seat. So I guess I approve.

They way they split up the Hincheymander is okay. I tried to make a non gerrymander seat out of the same basic area but the numbers and the boundaries just wouldn't come out right. And contributed to my usuall problem when I draw NY of trying to do too many things at once.

Then you get downstate...

I agree that the Senate GOP should pass a map containing a Jewish dominated South Brooklyn seat even if it is just to score points in the Senate special. That is the one big fail on this court map.
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« Reply #773 on: March 07, 2012, 01:43:56 am »
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Numbers were crunched on DKE.

Kind of a crappy map for the Democrats. The immediate casualties are split (Hochul and the Hincheymander for the Dems, Turner and Buerkle for the Republicans), but it puts Israel and McCarthy in marginal (albeit Dem-leaning) districts. Yes, it does improve the Dem performance in most of the upstate districts held by Republicans, but it's not enough to hurt any of them except for Gibson and maybe Hayworth. Plus it doesn't help out Owens at all.

Agreed, they should be able to get better. Wasting Ithaca's votes by putting it together with the most Republican part of the state is obnoxious.
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« Reply #774 on: March 07, 2012, 02:01:23 am »
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Numbers were crunched on DKE.

Kind of a crappy map for the Democrats. The immediate casualties are split (Hochul and the Hincheymander for the Dems, Turner and Buerkle for the Republicans), but it puts Israel and McCarthy in marginal (albeit Dem-leaning) districts. Yes, it does improve the Dem performance in most of the upstate districts held by Republicans, but it's not enough to hurt any of them except for Gibson and maybe Hayworth. Plus it doesn't help out Owens at all.

Buerkle got the best district possible that she could hope for if you keep Onondaga County together, especially considering that the Senate GOP majority map threw her under the bus.  There's talk she might run in the North Country district against Owens, anyway.  The Conservative Party chairman likes her and would back her.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 02:06:24 am by cinyc »Logged
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