US House Redistricting: New York

[Gravis Marketing]

Color me surprised, again, that Owens and Bishop survived the tsunami of 2010 given these stats.

Lowey and Tonko are not losing to Republicans in this decade absent a scandal.

[Torie]

Color me surprised, again, that Owens and Bishop survived the tsunami of 2010 given these stats.

Lowey and Tonko are not losing to Republicans in this decade absent a scandal.

Why are you so confident Lowey? She took a big hit, with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote,  has not had to campaign much for years, and is presumably somewhat too liberal for her CD now. Sure, she is no Slaughter.  I just see it as a potentially interesting situation to watch.

[Invisible Obama]

Lowey's new seat is D+4, which is out of reach for an Republican except in an open seat, 2010, poor Democratic opponent situation and even with all that, it's still a stretch.

[Torie]

I wonder if Hochul might try to primary Slaughter. As you can see, in her current district is a pretty good chunk of western and southwestern Monroe County (in that lime green color), which has been moved into Slaughter's CD.

[Gravis Marketing]

I wonder if Hochul might try to primary Slaughter. As you can see, in her current district is a pretty good chunk of western and southwestern Monroe County which has been moved into Slaughter's CD.

She's from the Buffalo area, so likely not. Pelosi will see that she lands somewhere comfy in Obama's administration, I guess.

[So the Heroes Fall]

If Slaughter lost that would be like the second strongest Obama district in the country held by a Republican even after 2010 (the only other one I know of stronger for Obama as mentioned was that guy in Illinois), and if Lowey lost that would be like the fourth or fifth probably. Neither should be too worried.

[krazen1211]

We seem to be missing the point.  The smart members of the state GOP (i.e. the State Senate and its Congressmen) are looking towards two things only:

1) shoring up incumbents insofar as they can be shored up (and they will compare to prior congressional incumbents and State Senate incumbents in Long Island and upstate NY in that regard, which is the correct, though as you can imagine, risky, measure, but considering they've had great success in the past 25 years amidst really bad, and continually worsening returns upballot, it's the correct model).

2) getting as many potentially competitive seats as possible using the above congressional incumbent/State Senate incumbent measure that are either competitive now or certainly could be under circumstances (i.e. retirement, wave).  Let's break this down...

Given Republican exploits in the past decade, that means a CD of D+3 PVI or less, I suspect, though it might be extended to D+5 in upstate, but to be cautious, let's say the former.  In the 2000 map, the number of those seats is 10 out of 29, of which Republicans hold 9.  If we extend it to D+5, we add 3 more (Higgins, Turner and Israel), of which Republicans now hold 1. 

I would need to get exact numbers to calculate PVI for the proposed court map, but it is almost certain that NY-1 through NY-3 are D+3 PVI or less (NY-1 and NY-2 will both be about R+1, NY-3 about D+0 or D+1), and it is likely that NY-4 is D+3, maybe D+4, but my suspicion is the former.  Sure King is a good bit less safe, and could be in trouble if a wave hit, but let's remember he did get 56% in 2006 and 64% in 2008.  Obviously, it becomes a greater problem if he retires, but that's the tradeoff.  The State GOP will likely view all four as potentially competitive under the above standard.

NY-9 is dead.  NY-11 remains about R+4, maybe R+5.  NY-17 (Lowey) is probably pushed down to D+6, but it might be D+5.  The State GOP may view this as competitive is vacant, but let's say for theoretical purposes they don't.  I'm almost certain that NY-18 (Hayworth) has a GOP PVI (probably R+1), but NY-19 (Gibson) is probably right at even, not going to make guesses there.  At any rate, these are two more competitive CDs.  NY-20 (Tonko) should stay at D+6.  NY-21 (Owens) did not get any help, and will be at R+1, I'm almost certain.  That's another four competitive seats for the NY GOP.

Continuing further, Hanna really gets favorable treatment in NY-22 - his CD is probably R+3 now or R+4.  To benefit Hanna, Reed in NY-23 is probably now about R+3 also.  Buerkle in NY-24 looks roughly the same as before, but may lose a point to D+4.  The NY GOP is likely to consider that potentially competitive, given Republican strength in years past - I tend to agree with those who say that this view is probably right, just not with Buerkle.  Slaughter is complaining in NY-25 because she's going to get a D+6 or D+7 district.  I don't see how this one is going to be viewed as competitive by the NY GOP, but obviously she's concerned about something (whether real or imagined).  NY-26 (Higgins) becomes safe, and NY-27 (Hochul) is probably about R+8 or so in an area that typically acts more Republican than that downballot.  Good luck to her.  So, four more seats for the state GOP to view as potentially competitive.

So, we have 12 seats that the state GOP is going to view as potentially competitive under possibly my measure (D+3) vs. 10 seats in the 2000 map (D+3).  Even if I'm wrong about NY-4 and NY-24, such that they're outside the D+3 measure, that's still 10 vs. 10.  Going with the broader measure of D+5, it is certainly 12 vs. 13, which again means that the GOP didn't really lose anything.  Going further than that, the 2000 map had 3 D+6 seats, whereas this map also has three seats that will probably be such.

Given this evaluation, why would the smart people in the GOP ever voice any opposition to what the Court is doing, other than to ask for a little help for Gibson and King's districts?  Sure, they'd like to play games to constitute a Turner/NY Jew district, but they don't hold all the cards, obviously...

NY-20(Tonko) is not a competitive seat.  No Republican is ever going to win a seat where half of the votes come from Albany county. 

Lowery is also not going anywhere. Population losses of course are bleeding upstate NY cities and rurals; its tough to say where those seats are going over 10 years.

[Gravis Marketing]

The Orthodox Jews in her district will be easy enough to please and won't swing against her on an anti-Obama vote the way that garden variety grumpy old Jews in Florida swung against him. She's an incumbent and she will very easily be able to nail down their vote. I don't see any evidence for the rest of the assessment of her weakness.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Yeah I really hope GOP donors get excited about beating Lowey and Slaughter and pour millions into their opponents instead of the GOP incumbents upstate/vulnerable Republicans in other states and Mitt Romney's superPACs. Reminds me of the idiots who gave millions to Christine O'Donnell instead of Sharron Angle or Ken Buck (or even Joe Miller).

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

1 - Hochul needs to run in a Buffalo-based district.

2 - Even as someone who's fully conscious of her weaknesses (I don't know a single Democrat who doesn't think that it's time for her to go), I don't understand Slaughter's concern. Either she's worried about facing a particularly strong opponent (Brooks?), or she's just paranoid and greedy.

[Torie]

If Slaughter lost that would be like the second strongest Obama district in the country held by a Republican even after 2010 (the only other one I know of stronger for Obama as mentioned was that guy in Illinois), and if Lowey lost that would be like the fourth or fifth probably. Neither should be too worried.

Sure, they are long shots. It just depends on the circumstances.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Not quite, that's a 55% Obama district.

[Torie]

Not quite, that's a 55% Obama district.

Yes, I just deleted that line after doubling checking myself.  

[Bacon King]

Here is the complete matrix chart which illustrates why one party is probably considerably happier with the court map than the other party. In a Pub tsunami, the delegation would be 15 (R) - 12 (D). Of course, with the reverse, it would be 1 (R) - 26 (D).  Notice how in general things get more competitive, with the more extreme partisan colors moving towards something less so in many instances (the Buffalo seat being the spectacular exception as the earmuffs were undone). That is what happens when you unravel a prior bi-partisan gerrymander. New York should be a fun place for the next decade.

So over half of the state's Congressional districts can be fairly described as competitive, and the district boundaries are actually pretty reasonable, too?

Whoever this special master was, he's my hero. They should let him draw the maps everywhere forever.

[muon2]

Here is the complete matrix chart which illustrates why one party is probably considerably happier with the court map than the other party. In a Pub tsunami, the delegation would be 15 (R) - 12 (D). Of course, with the reverse, it would be 1 (R) - 26 (D).  Notice how in general things get more competitive, with the more extreme partisan colors moving towards something less so in many instances (the Buffalo seat being the spectacular exception as the earmuffs were undone). That is what happens when you unravel a prior bi-partisan gerrymander. New York should be a fun place for the next decade.

Out of curiosity, what is your source of McCain/Obama numbers? I've drawn up the entire map on DRA and differ by 0.1% here and there.

Here's your corrected table:

[Torie]

Muon2, I got the numbers from Daily Kos (oh whatever that left wing blog is called), which were linked above somewhere. 

If you have mapped the state, Mike, and have different ones, I will use those. Knowing you, I trust you more than Daily Kos! The prior CD figures I got from Barone's Almanac, and used raw numbers, so they should be precisely accurate.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Some NY Republicans are calling on Bob Turner to challenge Gillibrand if he isn't left with a winnable district: http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/03/brooklyn-gop-chair-pushes-turner-for-congress/

[asexual trans victimologist]

Some NY Republicans are calling on Bob Turner to challenge Gillibrand if he isn't left with a winnable district: http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/03/brooklyn-gop-chair-pushes-turner-for-congress/

Good luck.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Some NY Republicans are calling on Bob Turner to challenge Gillibrand if he isn't left with a winnable district: http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/03/brooklyn-gop-chair-pushes-turner-for-congress/

Good luck.

Hey, it's New York. Personally, I'd be thrilled just to see a race that involves campaigning, however lopsided its result may be.

[muon2]

Muon2, I got the numbers from Daily Kos (oh whatever that left wing blog is called), which were linked above somewhere.  

If you have mapped the state, Mike, and have different ones, I will use those. Knowing you, I trust you more than Daily Kos! The prior CD figures I got from Barone's Almanac, and used raw numbers, so they should be precisely accurate.

They may have a block-level program, but I suspect not. My CDs all are within 1000 of the ideal pop . Here's my table (updated to the recommended plan of 3-12):

CD 1: O 51.4, M 47.6
CD 2: O 51.2, M 47.9
CD 3: O 53.5, M 45.7
CD 4: O 55.4, M 43.9
CD 5: O 86.2, M 13.4
CD 6: O 63.2, M 36.0
CD 7: O 84.3, M 15.0
CD 8: O 86.0, M 13.7
CD 9: O 84.3, M 15.2
CD 10: O 75.6, M 23.4
CD 11: O 48.3, M 50.9
CD 12: O 80.2, M 18.9
CD 13: O 93.3, M 6.2
CD 14: O 76.1, M 23.2
CD 15: O 94.6, M 5.2
CD 16: O 73.0, M 26.4
CD 17: O 58.0, M 41.2
CD 18: O 52.1, M 46.8
CD 19: O 53.0, M 45.3
CD 20: O 58.3, M 39.8
CD 21: O 51.6, M 46.7
CD 22: O 49.1, M 49.1 (McCain by 92 votes )
CD 23: O 49.6, M 48.8
CD 24: O 56.2, M 42.0
CD 25: O 58.8, M 39.9
CD 26: O 63.5, M 35.0
CD 27: O 44.5, M 53.9

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The hacks were busy this weekend, and apparently have reached agreement on legislative lines, and won't reach an agreement on Congressional lines, as was anticipated. So it looks like the court map will be the map. I suspect the appellate panel will make no changes at all to the lines. Why would they?

There still is no deal on the reworking of the congressional lines and it looks more likely the decision, including which two House seats from New York are eliminated, will rest with a panel of federal judges, the sources said.

Ugh, if the Democrats are going to implicitly agree to this crappy Congressional map, they should force someone other than the Republicans in the State Senate to draw the State Senate districts. So there'd probably be some Democrats in the state Assembly who lose re-election with a map they didn't draw. Small price to pay.

[Torie]

OK, Muon2, I revised the matrix above to match your numbers. You might delete the errant matrix from your post least it cause confusion.  

We both made errors with NY-27.  I mis-entered the Obama percentage (the McCain percentage was OK), and you used the average party numbers rather than the Obama-McCain numbers. I know because I drew NY-26 and NY-27 to find out.

Regarding the tenths thing, do you know if the DRA rounds the tenths, or just drops the 4th digit? If it just drops it, that might explain a lot of the tenths action vis a vis the Kos percentages. Unless of course even if the DRA does drop the fourth digit, you cranked the raw numbers to find out how to round properly.

[muon2]

OK, Muon2, I revised the matrix above to match your numbers. You might delete the errant matrix from your post least it cause confusion.  

We both made errors with NY-27.  I mis-entered the Obama percentage (the McCain percentage was OK), and you used the average party numbers rather than the Obama-McCain numbers. I know because I drew NY-26 and NY-27 to find out.

Regarding the tenths thing, do you know if the DRA rounds the tenths, or just drops the 4th digit? If it just drops it, that might explain a lot of the tenths action vis a vis the Kos percentages. Unless of course even if the DRA does drop the fourth digit, you cranked the raw numbers to find out how to round properly.

Thanks, I've made the correction. I also note that you don't show the swap of numbers for NY-2 and NY-3 that I would have guessed given the number of VTDs from the old districts in each. Obviously the PVIs match better the way you have it.

[Vasall des Midas]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

[Torie]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you.