US House Redistricting: New York

[Gravis Marketing]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you.

Looking at FL-22 and NY-9 data from 2000 through 2004 through 2008, it appears that group already trended that way once. I don't know how much further they have to trend (given that everyone expects Obama to underperform 2008 anyway) and, more, importantly, if they're going to take it out on the senior Jewish lady (born: 1937) who is their representative and meets with them individually.

Recall that if Hillary hadn't run in 2000, Lowey was the front-runner to succeed Pat Moynihan. Nebbishes and people who are legends in their own mind only don't generally get plum nominations like that.

[NY Jew]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you.

Looking at FL-22 and NY-9 data from 2000 through 2004 through 2008, it appears that group already trended that way once. I don't know how much further they have to trend (given that everyone expects Obama to underperform 2008 anyway) and, more, importantly, if they're going to take it out on the senior Jewish lady (born: 1937) who is their representative and meets with them individually.

Recall that if Hillary hadn't run in 2000, Lowey was the front-runner to succeed Pat Moynihan. Nebbishes and people who are legends in their own mind only don't generally get plum nominations like that.

right now Orthodox Jews are one of the least politically involved groups in the country (we have record low registration rates)
 (mostly do to systematic anti semtic redistricting for the past 40 years so on a local level our vote is mostly nullified.)
If we ever got fully involved in politics more dems will drop

[Torie]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you.

Looking at FL-22 and NY-9 data from 2000 through 2004 through 2008, it appears that group already trended that way once. I don't know how much further they have to trend (given that everyone expects Obama to underperform 2008 anyway) and, more, importantly, if they're going to take it out on the senior Jewish lady (born: 1937) who is their representative and meets with them individually.

Recall that if Hillary hadn't run in 2000, Lowey was the front-runner to succeed Pat Moynihan. Nebbishes and people who are legends in their own mind only don't generally get plum nominations like that.

Yes, Lowey is certainly no nebbish, and yes, you ask the right question as to whether or not the orthodox (along with perhaps some more moderate/secular but not liberal Jews angry about Obama's mid east policies), almost in toto abandoned Obama in 2008, so whatever is left, if anything, would be merely a swing, rather than a trend.  I don't pretend to know really. By the way, "nebbish" was O'Reilly's word of the day last week, so that word may start getting more play in the gentile community. Life is beautiful.

[Vasall des Midas]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

[Torie]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

I guess it would be useful to take a tour de horizon of the applicable precincts wouldn't it? You might be right. Rockland seems to be polarization city.

[krazen1211]

Bob Turner tosses in for NY Senate...hope he has fun.

[Vasall des Midas]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

I guess it would be useful to take a tour de horizon of the applicable precincts wouldn't it? You might be right. Rockland seems to be polarization city.

Doesn't help that the areas just east of the Orthodox are minority-heavy, of course. It's like a mini piece of transplanted Brooklyn!

There might be more, sort of orthodox but not ultra-observant (you know, not wearing the clothes, not living in uniform enclaves) Jews elsewhere in the county that might vote Democratic and be swingable, I don't know. It's possible.

[Vasall des Midas]

Bob Turner tosses in for NY Senate...hope he has fun.

Translate: The map stands.

[Torie]

In other news, Judge Mann just tweaked her map. The changes in Brooklyn are between two minority CD's, so that has no partisan meaning, and if the Finger Lakes changes move anything by even a tenth of a point, color me surprised. So now we wait until Thursday to see what the Appellate Court does - which will probably be nothing.

And indeed, no partisan change to NY-25, NY-27 and NY-23. The change to NY-25, expanding it by a tad (maybe a couple of hundred residents), into a precinct which was already split (up there near Orleans County along the lake - it took me a long time to find that tiny jut), may be a population equalizer. The other change I assume was to avoid a split of Livingston County, and keep just Ontario County split, so a bit of territory was excised in Livingston from NY-23, and NY-23 picked up about 1,500 more folks in Ontario from NY-27 instead. Judge Mann apparently is about as fond of county splits as Muon2.  

[NY Jew]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

my point wasn't based on % but turn out even if the Orthodox vote goes slightly towards the democrats % wise if the jewish vote increases it's turn out that can have major effects.

[muon2]

In other news, Judge Mann just tweaked her map. The changes in Brooklyn are between two minority CD's, so that has no partisan meaning, and if the Finger Lakes changes move anything by even a tenth of a point, color me surprised. So now we wait until Thursday to see what the Appellate Court does - which will probably be nothing.

And indeed, no partisan change to NY-25, NY-27 and NY-23. The change to NY-25, expanding it by a tad (maybe a couple of hundred residents), into a precinct which was already split (up there near Orleans County along the lake - it took me a long time to find that tiny jut), may be a population equalizer. The other change I assume was to avoid a split of Livingston County, and keep just Ontario County split, so a bit of territory was excised in Livingston from NY-23, and NY-23 picked up about 1,500 more folks in Ontario from NY-27 instead. Judge Mann apparently is about as fond of county splits as Muon2.  

Indeed, there was no change to the upstate percentages when I adjusted my map. NY-8 and NY-9 roughly swapped their percentages due to the differences between Ft Greene (now in and Sheepshead Bay (now in 9). My post on the previous page is now updated as well.

[danny]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

my point wasn't based on % but turn out even if the Orthodox vote goes slightly towards the democrats % wise if the jewish vote increases it's turn out that can have major effects.

Do you have a source or numbers regarding turnout? Total number of voters is always going to look low compared to the total population because of the large under 18 population.

[freepcrusher]

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now.

Lowey's lifetime ADA rating is like 94. It's very difficult to maintain a rating that high for more than 20 years. Of the congressman who have served a similar amount of years, only Barney Frank, Ed Markey and George Miller have higher lifetime ADA scores than her. A Ben Gilman esque Republican could possibly defeat her.

[Sibboleth]

Life is beautiful.

Fail.

[Torie]

Life is beautiful.

Fail.

You took that out of context. Naughty!

[krazen1211]

Democratic bickering seems to be preventing a deal.

http://blogs.buffalonews.com/politics_now/2012/03/silver-dismisses-idea-of-congressional-redistricting-deal.html

Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos late this afternoon said he wants to negotiate a congressional deal with Silver, but that the Assembly leader has “internal political problems.’’ He said those problems involve a battle between three Democratic county chairman – the leaders of the party organizations in Manhattan, Queens and the Bronx.



Yep. At a guess Skelos is fairly content with the Upstate and Long Island lines, while Silver can't figure out how do deal with Rangel, the Latinos, and everyone else bickering.

[So the Heroes Fall]

There might be more, sort of orthodox but not ultra-observant (you know, not wearing the clothes, not living in uniform enclaves) Jews elsewhere in the county that might vote Democratic and be swingable, I don't know. It's possible.

Isn't that basically what Joe Lieberman is?

[Vasall des Midas]

I dunno, I figure Joe may have voted for McCain, but otherwise he fits the description.

[timothyinMD]

For you race-obsessed Democrats:



2 majority black districts and 2 Republican districts in Brooklyn.

[krazen1211]

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2012/03/breaking-news-deals-near-on-everything-updatedx3

BREAKING NEWS: Deals Near On Everything

[cinyc]

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2012/03/breaking-news-deals-near-on-everything-updatedx3

BREAKING NEWS: Deals Near On Everything

While it's not entirely clear from the article, "everything" probably only includes the state Senate and Assembly redistricting, not the US House map.  Democrats are supposedly fighting too much among themselves to compromise on the House map.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Why compromise on the Senate map? Better to just bottle it up and get a court-drawn map that'll no doubt end several GOP incumbents (Obviously the Democrats will probably take it anyway even with the current gerrymandered monstrosity in the next decent Dem year but better to secure that).

BTW I actually have worked on what a court-drawn Senate map might look like, should upload it.

[Torie]

Why compromise on the Senate map? Better to just bottle it up and get a court-drawn map that'll no doubt end several GOP incumbents (Obviously the Democrats will probably take it anyway even with the current gerrymandered monstrosity in the next decent Dem year but better to secure that).

BTW I actually have worked on what a court-drawn Senate map might look like, should upload it.

Because Assembly Dems don't want to be inconvenienced by a concomitant court drawn Assembly map, even if it leaves the Dems with a secure majority in the Assembly. It has nothing to do with larger Dem objectives to gain more Congressional seats down the road silly. This is New York! It doesn't work that way. Plus the partisan divide when you cut through the BS is more muted in NY. Politics is a business, and an individual career, and it is far more about looking out for number one. Ideology sucks. That is the mindset.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Well I'm going to post my map anyway after tweaking a few things.

Fun fact: My church's "Leap of Faith 2012" packet advises on Tuesdays during the season to "worship through creativity" "doing something creative that connects you to God" then mentioning "Write, journal, draw, sing, dance, sew, paint, build, whatever comes to mind". So I did this by...drawing maps on DRA. And some primary prediction county maps in MS Paint.

[patrick1]

I'm really have a tough time following all the twists and turns of this byzantine redistricting proces.  Can someone inform me if this very basic summary is right-

Dems and Reps cannot agree on map

Cuomo is pissed and an agreement is hammered out by both parties to have an independent Judge draw up a map

Craven career politicians on both sides get scared and decide to cooperate to perpetuate their power

Cuomo throws up his hands and punts 10 years for change in state Constit.
- Lost on where things stand now.

I know their will be several different Republican primaries and I'm looking to see even what districts I will be in.

Any links to updates would be appreciated.