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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 50364 times)
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« on: December 21, 2010, 01:35:23 pm »
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Redistricting New York just became a whole lot more fun.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2010, 01:38:35 pm »
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Redistricting New York just became a whole lot more fun.

It'll probably be some annoying incumbent protection plan thingy, though.  The districts will be removed from the obvious places, the other question, not mentioned above, is exactly how west NY will be dealt with.
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2010, 01:49:56 pm »
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Redistricting New York just became a whole lot more fun.

It'll probably be some annoying incumbent protection plan thingy, though.  The districts will be removed from the obvious places, the other question, not mentioned above, is exactly how west NY will be dealt with.

They would probably eliminate NY-25, no? And keep the rest of the Republican districts leaning Republican, but gettable for Democrats in return for concessions on the state maps?
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2010, 02:00:57 pm »
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From a map drawing aesthetics perspective, it should be Engel in NY-17.  His district is the ugliest (other than Velasquez' NY-12, which won't be axed due to racial reasons).  There's no reason at all why the Bronx should share a district with Rockland County.

I wonder what happens to underpopulated Long Island and city districts if both districts eliminated start with the Bronx and head north, which is also what happened in 2002. I think they have to axe a district more deeply enmeshed in the city than Engel's in order for it to pencil out.
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2010, 02:05:07 pm »
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From a map drawing aesthetics perspective, it should be Engel in NY-17.  His district is the ugliest (other than Velasquez' NY-12, which won't be axed due to racial reasons).  There's no reason at all why the Bronx should share a district with Rockland County.

Obviously, the other dead district is going to have to come from Upstate.  NY-23 is probably most vulnerable to being carved up due to likely population loss and the sheer size of it.

It'd take a special election and a happier Grisanti to get a better Senate for those lines.

NY23 is a hard one to handle since I think every district bordering NY23 is now Republican and that Democratic vote from Owens base would make him formidable. Especially since the votes don't exist to totally carve the district.

Wonder how the dynamic would change if Slaughter retired, her district got distributed. How much would more Rochester wound one of the newer Republicans? Plus Chris Lee lives in Erie so some of that county will not be in Higgins district.

I don't think any of the upstate freshman Republicans are necessarily in a good spot right now because I don't recall any of them having elected state government experience and the map is probably either a compromise or court-drawn
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2010, 02:08:03 pm »
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From a map drawing aesthetics perspective, it should be Engel in NY-17.  His district is the ugliest (other than Velasquez' NY-12, which won't be axed due to racial reasons).  There's no reason at all why the Bronx should share a district with Rockland County.

Obviously, the other dead district is going to have to come from Upstate.  NY-23 is probably most vulnerable to being carved up due to likely population loss and the sheer size of it.

It'd take a special election and a happier Grisanti to get a better Senate for those lines.

NY23 is a hard one to handle since I think every district bordering NY23 is now Republican and that Democratic vote from Owens base would make him formidable. Especially since the votes don't exist to totally carve the district.

Wonder how the dynamic would change if Slaughter retired, her district got distributed. How much would more Rochester wound one of the newer Republicans? Plus Chris Lee lives in Erie so some of that county will not be in Higgins district.

I don't think any of the upstate freshman Republicans are necessarily in a good spot right now because I don't recall any of them having elected state government experience and the map is probably either a compromise or court-drawn

This is the reason why I said the mess probably has to be sorted out in west NY.
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2010, 02:18:25 pm »
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From a map drawing aesthetics perspective, it should be Engel in NY-17.  His district is the ugliest (other than Velasquez' NY-12, which won't be axed due to racial reasons).  There's no reason at all why the Bronx should share a district with Rockland County.

I wonder what happens to underpopulated Long Island and city districts if both districts eliminated start with the Bronx and head north, which is also what happened in 2002. I think they have to axe a district more deeply enmeshed in the city than Engel's in order for it to pencil out.

Pushing another Bronx district into lower Westchester only should handle that, I'd think.  

I think NY-23 is either going to have to be carved up or take on a significant population base outside of the North Country.  I'm almost certain it has significantly lost population in the past decade - even more so if the prisons are no longer counted (which they can't be for state apportionment purposes due to a new law, though I'm not sure how that affects the federal apportionment).   In any event, I don't see it existing in its current form.  It either has to become more Albany-centric or more Utica/Syracuse-centric.  The latter is more likely - though carving it in half and giving half to NY-20 and half to the Central NY districts can't be out of the question.  

IIRC, Owens lives in the eastern part of the district.  NY-20 could be made more Democratic by putting the three eastern counties in it.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2010, 02:20:00 pm by cinyc »Logged
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2010, 02:31:26 pm »
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It seems like an unlikely compromise for NYC Assembly Dems to agree to give up 2 seats. I could see them giving up an NYC seat ("Hey, want to be mayor Eliot?") in exchange for seriously hurting the re-election prospects of one of the upstate Republican freshmen.

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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2010, 02:35:55 pm »
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Giving up 2 Democratic seats would be ridiculous, though if any party is capable of failing so hard, it's the Democrats.
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2010, 03:02:53 pm »
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It seems like an unlikely compromise for NYC Assembly Dems to agree to give up 2 seats. I could see them giving up an NYC seat ("Hey, want to be mayor Eliot?") in exchange for seriously hurting the re-election prospects of one of the upstate Republican freshmen.



It's kind of hard not to give up seats when you overwhelmingly control the state Congressional delegation 21-8.  Which Republicans are you going to pit against each other?  Only NY-19/20 and the NY-24/25/26/29 combo are contiguous.  NY-19/20 is probably out of the question because the Hudson Valley is at least growing (though moving boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas isn't out of the question).  And if you do combine two of the NY-24/25/26/29 combo, what effect would that have on the rest of the Upstate map?  Locking in the remaining Republicans?  Remember - Democrats held some of those seats this decade.

If you try to take out Peter King on LI, the Democrat he faces would be in for a tough fight.  I suppose NY-13 could take on parts of Manhattan instead of Brooklyn, making it more Democratic-leaning if Democrats really wanted to - but Staten Island is growing and that district would be impossible to abolish.

I don't think a properly carved and redrawn NY-23 would be a Democratic loss.  It could actually make Owens safe, if done right.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2010, 03:06:59 pm by cinyc »Logged
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2010, 03:35:17 pm »
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It's kind of hard not to give up seats when you overwhelmingly control the state Congressional delegation 21-8.  

An alternative way to look at is a downstate delegation of 19 districts that loses a seat plus an upstate delegation of 10 districts that loses a seat. The population loss neatly divides along those lines. The upstate delegation is 5-5. The downstate delegation is 16-3. Since the downstate delegation almost certainly must sacrifice a Democrat, it stands to reason that evenly divided upstate can and should sacrifice a Republican. There are multiple ways this can be done successfully, although NY-23 as it stands is not so much as a lean-D district and would need shoring up to be counted as a D district.
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« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2010, 04:04:07 pm »
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It's kind of hard not to give up seats when you overwhelmingly control the state Congressional delegation 21-8.  

An alternative way to look at is a downstate delegation of 19 districts that loses a seat plus an upstate delegation of 10 districts that loses a seat. The population loss neatly divides along those lines. The upstate delegation is 5-5. The downstate delegation is 16-3. Since the downstate delegation almost certainly must sacrifice a Democrat, it stands to reason that evenly divided upstate can and should sacrifice a Republican. There are multiple ways this can be done successfully, although NY-23 as it stands is not so much as a lean-D district and would need shoring up to be counted as a D district.

If you want to look at things that way, Upstate Democrats have a choice - kill off a Republican and lose 3, if not all 4 of the remaining Republican-leaning districts for the decade or sacrifice one of their own and have a good chance of picking up 7 or even 8 of the remaining 9 Upstate seats in a good cycle.  Politicians being politicians would prefer the former.  But the latter may leave Democrats in a better position, particularly if Louise Slaughter were convinced to retire and her D+15 district used to make a redrawn NY-25 and NY-26 off limits to Republicans except in the very best of cycles.
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« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2010, 04:12:26 pm »
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Gotcha. I think they'd be foolish not to let the Republicans have 3-4 reasonably safe districts: two based on NY-24/26/29, and one roughly corresponding to NY-20. The lifespan of the '06-'08 Dem pickups is too sobering to ignore. Not sure what happens exactly with NY-25 and NY-23 but neither one is close to secure for the party currently holding it. I think politicians are concerned enough with their own careers that they'd be happy to do that to make their own districts safer.
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« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2010, 05:55:41 pm »
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I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.
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« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2010, 06:10:01 pm »
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I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.


I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.
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« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2010, 06:10:35 pm »
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and if the NYS Senate holds the Congressional Map hostage, the NYS Assembly can just shut down the NYS Senate redistricting map.

The New York State Senate is ridiculously gerrymandered: http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/maps/propsen/fsnys.pdf

So if they want to save a few House Seats at the expense of their Senate Majority, that's their problem.

Granted, they can't count the prison population in their districts anymore, so that'll hurt them.
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2010, 06:16:51 pm »
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Given the history of NY, both parties will work out their gerrymanders with each other just fine, so I wouldn't exactly expect the giant conflict mentioned.
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2010, 09:41:44 pm »
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I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals

What sordid little district deals in NYC?

I really don't see this.
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« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2010, 10:05:42 pm »
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I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals

What sordid little district deals in NYC?

I really don't see this.

The Dems would lose the ability to carve up the Dem seats (and who gets knocked out) in NYC and environs in a way that suits them, and would lose Hinchey (his district is ludicrously erose), whom the Assembly Speaker has a crush on, for some inexplicable reason. Is that really all worth just one seat for them?  Are they really that desperate to reduce the GOP NY delegation from 8 to 7, in order to have the court mess with their 18 seats remaining seats ?  I suspect not. The GOP should play the tractor game. If nothing else, it would be fun to watch. Last time, the parties did deadlock, and after they saw the court map, they then cut a deal, making safe those who felt too exposed per the court map,  and so that Assembly Speaker Silver could keep his pet Hinchey ensconced in a snake district. Hinchey despite that did not win by much this time.

So call it the Hinchey card if you want that will be played, along with the other concern about losing the ability to carve up the Dem spoils, that I think the Dems would have. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered.
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« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2010, 10:08:22 pm »
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I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.


I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.

Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001? 
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2010, 10:14:50 pm »
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Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001?  

Torie, New York is about many different moving gears.  In 2001, you had Assembly Democrats, Senate Republicans, and a Republican Governor.  They were free to strike a deal that would disadvantage the other gears on the board.

In 2010, there's enough of a redistricting reform force at work that nothing outrageously crazy gerrymander-wise is going to be passed (outside of what already exists).  The New York Republicans don't have very solid control over the Senate either, so their own piece on the board is weak.
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2010, 10:21:57 pm »
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I am sure the Democrats can work out a deal with some Senate Republicans. They get safe seats in exchange for gerrymandered congressional and assembly maps.
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2010, 10:22:36 pm »
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So who is the biggest loser of today's numbers?  I nominate Russ Carnahan. 

Some NYC area Dem rep is also royally f-ed today.  Which one do you think it will be?  Most likely Ackerman, Maloney or Crowley, based on previous talk.

You think the chairman of the Queens Democratic Party could be chopped?  Crowley isn't exactly on a low, having Liu on the upswing and knocking out Padavan.
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« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2010, 10:24:25 pm »
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I know I seem obnoxious, opining about NY, when we have some experts here on NY. We shall see. It should be fun.
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« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2010, 11:23:47 pm »
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Obviously a Republican seat upstate needs to go. Slaughter's district is already a ridiculous pack to waste Democratic votes. It's basically downtown Buffalo and downtown Rochester.
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