US House Redistricting: New York

[Verily]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties. 

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

[Lunar]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties.  

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

Fair enough points, we'll see, but anything that strengthens Bishop could be a tough pill for them to swallow after the closeness of 2010.  

Also: the Senate Republicans are very region-obsessed I've noticed lately, complaining how the Democratic Party is controlled by NYC.  Would they approve a plan that had two districts eliminated [mostly] outside of NYC?  

Dean Skelos won't be in control, but it would seem that any redistricting plan would need to avoid any perceived insults.

[ex-Senator X]

Wouldn't Chris Lee's seat be vulnerable given that it contains all of Niagara County, a slice of Monroe County, and Erie County (minus Buffalo), or do the rural counties have enough people to overcome this?  This may be the GOP's best realistic bet/they may not have much choice, but (correct me if I'm wrong), this map seems like it would eliminate Gibson in exchange for Ackerman, while also causing Lee and Buerkle to lose (although Buerkle is pretty much a goner no matter what).  Also, I could see Owens' district taking some Democratic parts of Oneida county and giving Hanna's district some Republican parts of Gibson's old district (although I'm not sure how either party would feel about that).  Other than that, this is probably more or less how the map will end up looking.  Now if the Democrats get a Republican State Senator to vote with them on redistricting in some sort of deal, than that obviously changes everything...

[krazen1211]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties. 

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

From what I've read, traditionally, only 1 district crosses from Long Island into New York City. Since Long Island has about 3.9 districts worth of population, you can't drown any of the 4 LI districts into NYC without crossing a second one over.

More importantly, Peter King is the Homeland Security chairman and the most powerful House member New York has now. If you try to stick him with enough of Queens to matter he'll probably run against Steve Israel, and nobody wants that.

As it stands, CD-1 is about perfectly populated. If the Democrats are going to ram through a 7-4 upstate map, they're going to have to throw Skelos a bone somewhere if they want to make this easy for themselves.

Of course, perhaps they don't.

[Verily]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties.  

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

From what I've read, traditionally, only 1 district crosses from Long Island into New York City. Since Long Island has about 3.9 districts worth of population, you can't drown any of the 4 LI districts into NYC without crossing a second one over.

More importantly, Peter King is the Homeland Security chairman and the most powerful House member New York has now. If you try to stick him with enough of Queens to matter he'll probably run against Steve Israel, and nobody wants that.

As it stands, CD-1 is about perfectly populated. If the Democrats are going to ram through a 7-4 upstate map, they're going to have to throw Skelos a bone somewhere if they want to make this easy for themselves.

Of course, perhaps they don't.

Yes, throwing Skelos a bone is eliminating Ackerman. There is no reason ("tradition" is not one) why multiple districts could not cross into Queens. And no reason why Israel's seat could not also go into Queens (alternatively, no reason to think that King would defeat Israel--he wouldn't in a neutral seat).

[krazen1211]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties.  

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

Fair enough points, we'll see, but anything that strengthens Bishop could be a tough pill for them to swallow after the closeness of 2010.  

Also: the Senate Republicans are very region-obsessed I've noticed lately, complaining how the Democratic Party is controlled by NYC.  Would they approve a plan that had two districts eliminated [mostly] outside of NYC?  

Dean Skelos won't be in control, but it would seem that any redistricting plan would need to avoid any perceived insults.

I think if you give the Republicans 6 districts (4 upstate, Staten Island, 1 Long Island), with the chance of winning a 7th (either a 5th upstate or CD-1 on Long Island), both sides can go with that.

[Verily]

Ultimately, I think Muon's map is fairly likely, but I think there will be an attempt to put Glen Cove and environs in Israel's district in exchange for putting a chunk of Smithtown in King's district. There's really no reason why King's district should stretch all the way from the South Shore to the North, so Glen Cove and Smithtown should be exchanged.

[krazen1211]

Yes, throwing Skelos a bone is eliminating Ackerman. There is no reason ("tradition" is not one) why multiple districts could not cross into Queens. And no reason why Israel's seat could not also go into Queens (alternatively, no reason to think that King would defeat Israel--he wouldn't in a neutral seat).

Shrug, I'd be really shocked if they do anything like that with the regional interests involved. We shall see.

[Vasall des Midas]

Shrug, I'd be really shocked if they did anything like the map I've drawn here, but it's "fair".



Enhance



Superenhance



Districts 1-4. Long Island, clean lines, single town splits.
D1 52-47 Obama, 84 white - 8 hispanic
D2 53-47 Obama, 75 white - 13 hispanic - 8 black
D3 53-46 Obama, 76 white - 9 black - 9 hispanic
D4 56-44 Obama, 70 white - 11 hispanic - 11 black
I don't think I drew any Long Island incumbent out of their seat, though who knows. Just goes to show you don't need creative mapping to make King fight for his seat for once I suppose.
D5 67-33 Obama, 40 white - 26 asian - 23 hispanic - 7 black
Broadly speaking Ackerman's old district. Open seat, actually - neither Ackerman nor Weiner lives here. I guess Weiner ought to just move.
D6 86-14 Obama, 49 black - 18 hispanic - 17 white - 8 asian
Meeks' district. Which is very reasonably drawn as is.
D7 71-28 Obama, 41 white - 32 hispanic - 20 asian
The district Joe Crowley has always wanted but would never think of asking for as it destroys deals elsewhere. Weiner also lives here.
D8 84-15 Obama, 49 white - 26 hispanic - 15 asian - 6 black
Arguably just a cleaned-up version of Velazquez' seat - Lower Manhattan, Williamsburg, a bit of Queens - but I suppose Jerry Nadler would be favored for it and the VRA police wants a word with me. Though he doesn't live here. Anybody know where Velazquez actually lives, btw?
D9 96-4 Obama, 68 black - 21 hispanic - 6 white
And my earlier version that I lost was even more packed with Blacks, lol. For one, it excluded all of Brownsville (if that's what it's called, I didn't look it up) whereas now it's split. For another, I was a little more careful this time with what I did with
D10 80-19 Obama, 46 black - 29 white - 16 hispanic - 6 asian
No idea which Black representative would run for which.
D11 68-32 Obama, 57 white - 20 hispanic - 14 asian
Yeah, the one major group in New York City royally screwed over by the current alignment is White Brooklyn Democrats, shared up between Nadler, Velazquez, the Staten seat and the Black seats. As a result, this is bona fide wide open.
D12 51-48 McCain, 70 white - 12 hispanic - 8 black - 8 asian
Always thought it ugly how Nadler's district wrapped around its Brooklyn portion. I thought Grimm was from Brooklyn; wiki has him on Staten wtf? Anyways, it'd take Republicans another Fossella style meltdown to lose here again.
D13 81-18 Obama, 68 white - 17 hispanic - 7 asian - 6 black
Upper Manhattan. The color line on the east side is ridiculously well defined on 96th street, the west side's is weird. Used to be that the poor lived closer to the river in Manhattan, but not anymore. Anyways that long north-south split is a retread from the 80s. Sets up Nadler against Maloney, though he might want to try the 8th instead. Actually, I suppose he's favored in a primary in either.
D14 95-4 Obama, 56 hispanic - 36 black
Rangel's district crosses the Harlem River. He's used to representing Hispanics (though not quite so many... but he had whites too in the last 20 years), he's never had a racially motivated primary challenge to my knowledge. 'Course, with his ethics problems, who knows.
D15 93-6 Obama, 59 hispanic - 30 black - 5 white
Northern boundary mostly traces the end of residual white population quite closely (except in the central portion). Serrano's district is still demoted from most Democratic in the country to third most Democratic in the state.
D16 75-24 Obama, 40 white - 30 black - 23 hispanic
North Bronx, Yonkers, Mount Vernon, Pelham. And exactly that. Custombuilt for Eliot Engel I suppose.
D17 60-39 Obama, 73 white - 13 hispanic - 8 black
Suburban Westchester. Nita Lowey. Hayworth lives here too.
D18 52-47 Obama, 76 white - 11 hispanic - 9 black
Rockland, Orange, southern Sullivan. Open I think, and wide open in a general election. Heh, it could be won and lost repeatedly on the Kiryas Joel bloc vote.
D19 54-44 Obama, 85 white - 6 black - 6 hispanic
Another Hudson Valley seat. Hinchey and Gibson. Hinchey might well be too weak to hold this, but a generic Democrat ought to win I think.
D20 58-40 Obama, 87 white - 7 black
Albany, Schenectady, Saratoga Springs (city line is the district line too). Safe Paul Tonko.
D21 53-46 Obama, 93 white
Owens might hold it, but it's generically Republican at a congressional level.
D22 51-47 McCain, 93 white
Here we get to the awkward part of the New York state map. This iteration is far from perfect, obviously, but most of the others I've seen are worse. Anybody got a good suggestion - good not from partisan considerations, but just what belongs together versus the district totals we're forced to work with? I just don't like splitting urban areas when I can avoid it. Hanna would be happy though.
D23 56-43 Obama, 88 white - 7 black
Forced me to go west from Syracuse. IIRC the current version is not much less Democratic, actually? Still a little surprised Buerkle managed to regain that seat. If ever a seat was supposed to be "lost for good" it's that one.
D24 50-48 Obama, 92 white
Awkward part of New York state, second instalment. It got worse. I do hold that Binghampton, Ithaca, Elmira belong in a district together... though not ideally one that stretches exclusively west from there. Thomas Reed is the incumbent and would be strongly favored to hold it... until the next Democratic wave. Those pesky collegepeople will always be a problem though.
D25 58-40 Obama, 78 white - 13 black - 5 hispanic (Rochester)
D26 53-46 McCain, 92 white
D27 62-36 Obama, 78 white - 15 black (Buffalo)
Nothing to see here. Safe for Slaughter, Lee, and Higgins.

[Vasall des Midas]

Addendum: all seats within 500, no additional county splits, no additional town splits. Awkward split of Ontario County was necessary to balance populations.

[danny]

Rockland, Orange, southern Sullivan. Open I think, and wide open in a general election. Heh, it could be won and lost repeatedly on the Kiryas Joel bloc vote.

Not just Kiryas Joel, you put the Ramapo Hasids who are currently in Engels district in here as well.

[Sam Spade]

D8 84-15 Obama, 49 white - 26 hispanic - 15 asian - 6 black
Arguably just a cleaned-up version of Velazquez' seat - Lower Manhattan, Williamsburg, a bit of Queens - but I suppose Jerry Nadler would be favored for it and the VRA police wants a word with me. Though he doesn't live here. Anybody know where Velazquez actually lives, btw?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

I think Velazquez lives in west Brooklyn, somewhere in the northern part of the western portion here, like around the I-278/I-478 nexus.



But I am just basing that off something I read on another blog at sometime. If true that would put her outside of the seat Lewis drew of course and in the new White Brooklyn seat.

[Lunar]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

[Vasall des Midas]

Of course, putting Weiner into the NE Queens district would not actually harm the logic of the map in any way - might even improve it, actually, to switch what's now the northwestern 5th and southeastern 7th. I just happen to have drawn it this way before looking up where he lives, and found it intellectually dishonest to change it after that.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

Oh so that's Williamsburg? Puerto Ricans live there too? It's not just scene kids?

Of course, putting Weiner into the NE Queens district would not actually harm the logic of the map in any way - might even improve it, actually, to switch what's now the northwestern 5th and southeastern 7th. I just happen to have drawn it this way before looking up where he lives, and found it intellectually dishonest to change it after that.

Weiner probably wouldn't mind that, as the guy only cares about his seat as a stepping stone to being mayor of NYC (basically his dream since childhood.) So getting more territory and becoming more well known would boost his chances there. I'm already willing to bet that he'll be the next mayor anyway though since I can't see even Bloomberg having the chutzpah to run for a fourth term, and based on the 2009 results he'd probably lose even if he did.

[Lunar]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

Oh so that's Williamsburg? Puerto Ricans live there too? It's not just scene kids?

I mean, it's a fairly large neighborhood geographically.  There's a huge Hasidic portion of Williamsburg too.

The Lower East Side is another area that used to be solidly Puerto Rican before the scene kids started moving in.

[Vasall des Midas]

The LES as a whole has never been solidly anything. Except working class, I suppose.

[Lunar]

The LES as a whole has never been solidly anything. Except working class, I suppose.

Yeah, poor descriptor.  "much more" is what I meant, I suppose

[Verily]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

Oh so that's Williamsburg?

No, it's not. Williamsburg is more or less the area around 278 in the northern portion of the district, on the Brooklyn side.

The location you pointed to is Red Hook (the peninsula southwest of 478/278 in the southern area), which would be an odd place for Velasquez to live as it's mostly white except for a very large housing project that's mostly Hispanic (and I doubt she lives in the projects).

Puerto Ricans live there too? It's not just scene kids?

The three Hs of Williamsburg: Hipsters, Hispanics and Hasids. Hipsters in the north, Hispanics in the center, Hasids in the south.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

Oh so that's Williamsburg?

No, it's not. Williamsburg is more or less the area around 278 in the northern portion of the district, on the Brooklyn side.

Look at the precinct map. The northernmost inhabited part in Brooklyn, well set off from anything else, is Greenpoint, which has historically speaking been very very Polish. (No clue how true that still is, I think parts of it have gone Hispanic.) The second, much larger inhabited area, ending where the district ends, is Williamsburg. Williamsburg was one of the 50 largest cities in America when it was annexed by Brooklyn, a generation before Brooklyn was annexed by New York.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

The LES as a whole has never been solidly anything. Except working class, I suppose.

Uh wow. It's just so hard to imagine any part of Manhattan as ever being working class. It's kind of like how even if McDowell County, West Virginia was posh at one time, it still seems bizarre.

[Lunar]

The LES as a whole has never been solidly anything. Except working class, I suppose.

Uh wow. It's just so hard to imagine any part of Manhattan as ever being working class. It's kind of like how even if McDowell County, West Virginia was posh at one time, it still seems bizarre.

I mean, there're still projects in Manhattan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Housing_Authority#Manhattan_.28Neighborhood.29

[Verily]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

Oh so that's Williamsburg?

No, it's not. Williamsburg is more or less the area around 278 in the northern portion of the district, on the Brooklyn side.

Look at the precinct map. The northernmost inhabited part in Brooklyn, well set off from anything else, is Greenpoint, which has historically speaking been very very Polish. (No clue how true that still is, I think parts of it have gone Hispanic.) The second, much larger inhabited area, ending where the district ends, is Williamsburg. Williamsburg was one of the 50 largest cities in America when it was annexed by Brooklyn, a generation before Brooklyn was annexed by New York.

10 years ago, Greenpoint was going Hispanic (maybe peaking at around 25-30% Hispanic around 1998), but gentrification hit and cut that off at the pass. It's now more and more like the hipster parts of Williamsburg.

Anyway, large chunks of Manhattan were working-class white as late as 1990, BRTD. Of course, even today Washington Heights and Inwood have working-class prices, albeit occupied by Hispanics, not whites, and Harlem and East Harlem also have a lot of poverty.

[Lunar]

It's still ruhlly Polish though if you hop off at Nassau Station at least.

I'm starting to work out a theory that Spanish neighborhoods get gentrified the most: LES, Park Slope, Williamsburg most notably to my untrained eye, but also probably Spanish Harlem & Bushwick. African-American neighborhoods less so: Harlem & Clinton Hill?