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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 49347 times)
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #175 on: June 02, 2011, 11:28:24 am »
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Is Anthony Weiner saving Gary Ackerman's career?

Look at a map. Weiner's district should be the one to go.

Could they stretch NY-4 across the Rockaways, circling NY-6, and into the southern bits of NY-9? It makes sense to me. Give other parts of Brooklyn to NY-10, NY-11, and NY-8 on the one side and divide up Queens with Ackerman taking the lion's share and Crowley helping smooth out lines.

I doubt McCarthy would be happy with taking in the Republican parts of southern Brooklyn. Also, the Rockaways are needed to up NY-06's black population.
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« Reply #176 on: June 02, 2011, 11:32:37 am »
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I doubt McCarthy would be happy with taking in the Republican parts of southern Brooklyn. Also, the Rockaways are needed to up NY-06's black population.

Do you think it's plausible for NY-13, NY-8, NY-10, and NY-11 to take up that half of NY-9?
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« Reply #177 on: June 02, 2011, 12:34:18 pm »
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I thought the consensus was that 26 was getting eliminated regardless of who won, but that a Hochul win made the actual act more painful?
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« Reply #178 on: June 02, 2011, 12:50:14 pm »
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I doubt McCarthy would be happy with taking in the Republican parts of southern Brooklyn. Also, the Rockaways are needed to up NY-06's black population.

The western half of the Rockaways are white.  The question then becomes how to draw a district that allows NY-06 to take up Far Rockaway and NY-04 Rockaway Park or so and points west.  Drawing NY-04 into the ocean census tract might work - or some type of point continuity in Jamaica Bay.

I thought the consensus was that 26 was getting eliminated regardless of who won, but that a Hochul win made the actual act more painful?

I've always though Burkle's NY-25 would be the odd district out Upstate - even more so now with a Democrat winning NY-26.
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« Reply #179 on: June 02, 2011, 12:50:42 pm »
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I thought the consensus was that 26 was getting eliminated regardless of who won, but that a Hochul win made the actual act more painful?

I don't think it was ever targeted for elimination--it's in the exact spot where a district was eliminated last time and that's why NY-24 stretches so far to the west when it was a central NY district before. There is enough population in western NY for 4 districts: a Rochester-based Dem district, a southern tier Republican district, and two Buffalo/Niagara based districts incorporating a lot of Republican turf. It's very tough, once you've got that, to make a 3-1 arrangement. We were looking at a solid 2-2 moving forward with NY-24 retreating out of the Finger Lakes and/or NY-25 pulling out of Monroe County.
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« Reply #180 on: June 02, 2011, 01:25:03 pm »
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It always seemed really easy to crunch the 9th district compared to any of the others.

I would love to see the GOP win a special there, though. They'll need a Jewish Republican for sure.
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« Reply #181 on: June 02, 2011, 01:43:49 pm »
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I thought the consensus was that 26 was getting eliminated regardless of who won, but that a Hochul win made the actual act more painful?

Democrats in the Assembly and Cuomo would never allow two Democratic seats to be eliminated, especially considering what is likely to happen to Democrats in other states. 
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« Reply #182 on: June 02, 2011, 01:46:35 pm »
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I would love to see the GOP win a special there, though. They'll need a Jewish Republican for sure.

I *would* say this, but I'm skeptical that the district would elect a Republican. Jewish Democratic voters in the New York area were unusually warm to Saddam's-ass-kicking Bush in the post-9/11 presidential election and didn't connect well with Obama in 2008. But they'll have no trouble supporting a local Democrat for Congress by large margins. Especially with Medicare on the table.

Weiner would be a moron to outright resign over this.
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« Reply #183 on: June 02, 2011, 02:18:55 pm »
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I would love to see the GOP win a special there, though. They'll need a Jewish Republican for sure.

I *would* say this, but I'm skeptical that the district would elect a Republican. Jewish Democratic voters in the New York area were unusually warm to Saddam's-ass-kicking Bush in the post-9/11 presidential election and didn't connect well with Obama in 2008. But they'll have no trouble supporting a local Democrat for Congress by large margins. Especially with Medicare on the table.

Weiner would be a moron to outright resign over this.

Really depends on whether he's lying about his crotch or not I suppose.

A Republican would really need to make a big deal about Israel 1967 and all that and really clean house in the Brooklyn section to have a chance. The Orthodox Jews seem to wildly swing in mass, though, which probably makes it easier.

I believe even Weiner lost the Brooklyn section last year but of course won the Queens section easily.
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« Reply #184 on: June 02, 2011, 02:27:44 pm »
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Weiner won Brooklyn 52-48 and Queens 65-35 last year.
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« Reply #185 on: June 02, 2011, 02:41:16 pm »
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Weiner won Brooklyn 52-48 and Queens 65-35 last year.

Thanks. Close, but not quite. I guess in the end New York is probably more tolerant of this crap than most areas. Rudy had some shady incidents after all.

He probably just needs to stop digging his own grave.
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« Reply #186 on: June 02, 2011, 03:06:04 pm »
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A Republican would really need to make a big deal about Israel 1967

But any Democrat who would be running would be saying the exact same thing, and sincerely, and that's enough. Voters may feel strongly about Israel but not enough that they'll vote against a pro-Israel Democrat from the neighborhood.
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« Reply #187 on: June 02, 2011, 03:36:14 pm »
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I doubt McCarthy would be happy with taking in the Republican parts of southern Brooklyn. Also, the Rockaways are needed to up NY-06's black population.

Do you think it's plausible for NY-13, NY-8, NY-10, and NY-11 to take up that half of NY-9?

I think NY-10 and NY-11 could do it all by themselves, with NY-10 pulling out of Park Slope, etc. and giving it over to NY-8 (which would loop back around NY-12 through Windsor Terrace).
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« Reply #188 on: June 02, 2011, 03:41:45 pm »
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I doubt McCarthy would be happy with taking in the Republican parts of southern Brooklyn. Also, the Rockaways are needed to up NY-06's black population.

Do you think it's plausible for NY-13, NY-8, NY-10, and NY-11 to take up that half of NY-9?

I think NY-10 and NY-11 could do it all by themselves, with NY-10 pulling out of Park Slope, etc. and giving it over to NY-8 (which would loop back around NY-12 through Windsor Terrace).

You could also do it much easier by having the 8th take most of North Staten Island (Which is Solid D Anyway), and letting NY-13 take most of the Rep. Parts.  The problem with the 10th and 11th is that they're VRA-Black districts, meaning they can't pick up alot of the heavily white 9th.  You can probably put the Queens part in NY-4 or 5 if necessary as well.

Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.
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« Reply #189 on: June 02, 2011, 03:47:17 pm »
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Not a primary challenge, a general election challenge. Hasidim have liked the federal Republicans recently, but they're perfectly willing to swing completely the other way to the Democrats in any given election, provided the Democrat panders to them. Some of those precincts that gave McCain over 90% of the vote also gave Gore over 90% of vote, IIRC. They're represented in the state General Assembly by a Democrat, Dov Hikind (in a district that was like 75% McCain, and Hikind is never seriously challenged).

NY-10, in particular, has a lot of white areas in inner Brooklyn that it can easily drop in favor of southern Brooklyn. NY-11 has become much more black as Canarsie and Flatlands experienced continued demographic transition during the past decade. And both have substantial flexibility anyway--if you packed blacks in, they would be about 53-55% each.

Also, there's no way Staten Island gets split up. If the Democrats controlled redistricting, it might get paired with lower Manhattan to create a ~62% Obama seat, but Staten Island will always be kept whole.
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« Reply #190 on: June 02, 2011, 09:30:45 pm »
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Hikind is a DINO though, in the most literal definition of the word. He's probably the most right wing member of the Assembly. He is only a Democrat because of NYC local politics, he's very socially conservative and frequently endorses Republicans (including McCain and Bush both times). But that isn't the most odious thing about him, he's a far right fascist who is comparable to Pakistani MPs in the Osama bin Laden-defending parties. He may be a DINO but he doesn't fit the GOP either, he'd need to join to something like Avigdor Lieberman's party.

The GOP do more than just not seriously challenge him, they also run (legal due to NY's fusion system.) The Conservative Party is frequently the only challenger he has, and whoever their candidate is would easily get my vote. I'd even vote for a non-fascist Republican over him. He is a truly a vile individual. Even the vast majority of American Jews would find him repulsive (Think Meir Kahane.)
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« Reply #191 on: June 02, 2011, 10:46:44 pm »
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Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.

He would love them.

http://forward.com/articles/137094/
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« Reply #192 on: June 02, 2011, 10:49:36 pm »
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Staten Island's Hasid population is also growing as many are priced out Boro Park in Brooklyn and seek cheaper housing elsewhere
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« Reply #193 on: June 02, 2011, 11:53:42 pm »
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Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.

He would love them.

http://forward.com/articles/137094/

Wow that guy is disgusting. Canadians should be really offended.
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« Reply #194 on: June 04, 2011, 12:16:16 am »
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Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.

He would love them.

http://forward.com/articles/137094/

Wow that guy is disgusting. Canadians should be really offended.

Pollard should have been executed for treason decades ago.
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« Reply #195 on: June 10, 2011, 05:48:35 am »
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Is Anthony Weiner saving Gary Ackerman's career?

Look at a map. Weiner's district should be the one to go.

Weiner's district on the chopping block?
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« Reply #196 on: June 11, 2011, 12:43:34 am »
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OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?
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« Reply #197 on: June 11, 2011, 12:53:51 am »
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Yeah, basically. Increasing population of newer immigrants too
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« Reply #198 on: June 11, 2011, 12:54:23 am »
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OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?

It is kind of a green paradise among the asphalt:)  It is probably one of the least dense neighborhoods in the city.  A lot of parks and cemetaries so it is spread out and a lot of trees. The tornado/macroburst last September hit this neighborhood hard and that is how I came to know  about it more. It is a white neighborhood for the most part.  Bloomberg is not cared for here at all recently.  It is definitely a lot more conservative than the city at large.
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« Reply #199 on: June 11, 2011, 12:58:43 am »
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Oh and actually looking at precincts, damn we all have the stereotypes about the white parts of Williamsburg and Park Slope but if the numbers are really like this I would love to force BushOklahoma to live there for a year!

New York will probably never have a gay marriage referendum, but it'd be fun to watch some precincts vote >90% in favor of gay marriage which would obviously be happening here (granted that no doubt already happened in some San Francisco precincts.)
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