US House Redistricting: New York

[Verily]

OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?

It is kind of a green paradise among the asphalt:)  It is probably one of the least dense neighborhoods in the city.  A lot of parks and cemetaries so it is spread out and a lot of trees. The tornado/macroburst last September hit this neighborhood hard and that is how I came to know  about it more. It is a white neighborhood for the most part.  Bloomberg is not cared for here at all recently.  It is definitely a lot more conservative than the city at large.

I don't know that Middle Village is particularly lacking in density if you subtract the cemeteries (but leave in Juniper Valley Park since a lot of neighborhoods have parks). It's definitely denser than Forest Hills, for example. (A quick glance at Google Earth is all you need to see that.)

The real reason it is relatively conservative is, as always, demographics. Lots of middle class Italians, Irish, etc. in Middle Village as well as in neighboring Maspeth and Glendale, which are all fairly conservative.

[patrick1]

OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?

It is kind of a green paradise among the asphalt:)  It is probably one of the least dense neighborhoods in the city.  A lot of parks and cemetaries so it is spread out and a lot of trees. The tornado/macroburst last September hit this neighborhood hard and that is how I came to know  about it more. It is a white neighborhood for the most part.  Bloomberg is not cared for here at all recently.  It is definitely a lot more conservative than the city at large.

I don't know that Middle Village is particularly lacking in density if you subtract the cemeteries (but leave in Juniper Valley Park since a lot of neighborhoods have parks). It's definitely denser than Forest Hills, for example. (A quick glance at Google Earth is all you need to see that.)

The real reason it is relatively conservative is, as always, demographics. Lots of middle class Italians, Irish, etc. in Middle Village as well as in neighboring Maspeth and Glendale, which are all fairly conservative.

My definition of density is different- read not many large residential buildings/projects/coops etc etc   There are even trees and some people have backyards.  Yeah, Forest Hills has more money and much larger lots. Jamaica estates and Staten Island and many other neighborhoods have less density so was an overstatement. 

[krazen1211]

NYC glory.





Fuschia: Long Island district for King. 49.8% McCain

Red: Long Island/Queens district for some Democrat. 56.9% Obama

Slate Green: Queens/Long Island district for Meeks. 51.0% black, 85.2% Obama

Grey: Brooklyn/Queens district for some Jewish Republican. 54.5% McCain

Peach: Staten Island/Brooklyn district for Grimm: 50.0% McCain

Pink: Brooklyn district for Towns: 50.3% Black, 90.2% Obama

Pale green: Brooklyn district for Clarke: 50.7% black, 92.0% Obama

Purple: Manhattan district for Nadler: 82.2% Obama

Cyan: Manhattan district for Maloney: 88.5% Obama

Orange: Bronx/Manhattan district for Serrano: 61.8% Hispanic, 90.2% Obama

Sky Blue: Queens/Brooklyn district for Velazquez: 52.8% Hispanic, 83.2% Obama

Yellow: Queens district for Crowley. 71.9% Obama

Puke: Bronx district for some Hispanic Democrat. 48.3% Hispanic, 89.5% Obama

Bright Green: Westchester/Queens leftovers for Engel.




No Rangel, no Weiner. 6 districts don't cross borough lines at all. New Hispanic district.

[Mr.Phips]

NYC glory.





Fuschia: Long Island district for King. 49.8% McCain

Red: Long Island/Queens district for some Democrat. 56.9% Obama

Slate Green: Queens/Long Island district for Meeks. 51.0% black, 85.2% Obama

Grey: Brooklyn/Queens district for some Jewish Republican. 54.5% McCain

Peach: Staten Island/Brooklyn district for Grimm: 50.0% McCain

Pink: Brooklyn district for Towns: 50.3% Black, 90.2% Obama

Pale green: Brooklyn district for Clarke: 50.7% black, 92.0% Obama

Purple: Manhattan district for Nadler: 82.2% Obama

Cyan: Manhattan district for Maloney: 88.5% Obama

Orange: Bronx/Manhattan district for Serrano: 61.8% Hispanic, 90.2% Obama

Sky Blue: Queens/Brooklyn district for Velazquez: 52.8% Hispanic, 83.2% Obama

Yellow: Queens district for Crowley. 71.9% Obama

Puke: Bronx district for some Hispanic Democrat. 48.3% Hispanic, 89.5% Obama

Bright Green: Westchester/Queens leftovers for Engel.




No Rangel, no Weiner. 6 districts don't cross borough lines at all. New Hispanic district.

Why would Democrats ever agree to a map that gives Republicans another seat in New York City?

[So the Heroes Fall]

I think it's just an academic exercise.

BTW I'm just tweaking my final map now, but why was there such controversy over shoring up Hochul? It's quite easy with just the northern fourth of Buffalo with Higgins taking the rest. Her seat would basically be the one represented by John LaFalce for so long with the bit of Buffalo added. Both Buffalo seats are about 54% Obama, which has been fine for Higgins so far and should be fine for Hochul as long as she isn't stupid (which she hasn't been to even win that seat to begin with.)

[krazen1211]

I think it's just an academic exercise.

BTW I'm just tweaking my final map now, but why was there such controversy over shoring up Hochul? It's quite easy with just the northern fourth of Buffalo with Higgins taking the rest. Her seat would basically be the one represented by John LaFalce for so long with the bit of Buffalo added. Both Buffalo seats are about 54% Obama, which has been fine for Higgins so far and should be fine for Hochul as long as she isn't stupid (which she hasn't been to even win that seat to begin with.)

Yeah, that was just an exercise.


What you suggest is definitely doable and probably likely. Whether it holds for a decade or not is another issue. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

[Dgov]

Why would Democrats ever agree to a map that gives Republicans another seat in New York City?

Well, a Jewish Democrat could hold that 7th (which can be brought down closer to 50/50 if necessary), and it weakens the Staten-Island district enough to where Grimm wouldn't have won it in 2010.

In other words it's a good "fair" map if the Democrats want to bet on winning both.  Other than that however, it's probably moot.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Uh in exchange for two districts the Democrats "might" win Rangel's super-safe seat is lost. Even if the Democrats want to get rid of Rangel he can be easily replaced with another Democrat.

[Dgov]

Uh in exchange for two districts the Democrats "might" win Rangel's super-safe seat is lost. Even if the Democrats want to get rid of Rangel he can be easily replaced with another Democrat.

Rangel's District is the new Hispanic-majority one, Weiner's district is the one that gets more Marginal.

[krazen1211]

Why would Democrats ever agree to a map that gives Republicans another seat in New York City?

Well, a Jewish Democrat could hold that 7th (which can be brought down closer to 50/50 if necessary), and it weakens the Staten-Island district enough to where Grimm wouldn't have won it in 2010.

In other words it's a good "fair" map if the Democrats want to bet on winning both.  Other than that however, it's probably moot.

Nah, its not a fair map at all. It's just a GOP map to accomplish numerous objectives. The grey district is an obvious and blatant gerrymander. The rest of the districts are fairly clean of course; I tried to give each borough 2 districts and end the Manhattan over representation. Queens is of course sliced and diced a bit due to its location.

[Vasall des Midas]

Rangel's district isn't abolished in that map at all. It just becomes unequivocally a Black-influence Hispanic-majority seat. Which is the way it's headed anyhow - and which was never an issue for Rangel.

[krazen1211]

Rangel's district isn't abolished in that map at all. It just becomes unequivocally a Black-influence Hispanic-majority seat. Which is the way it's headed anyhow - and which was never an issue for Rangel.

It would depend on whether Serrano would slide over to the neighboring Bronx district. But he might want to take the orange district and leave the puke Bronx district for, say, his son.

[Smash255]

Rangel's district isn't abolished in that map at all. It just becomes unequivocally a Black-influence Hispanic-majority seat. Which is the way it's headed anyhow - and which was never an issue for Rangel.

It would depend on whether Serrano would slide over to the neighboring Bronx district. But he might want to take the orange district and leave the puke Bronx district for, say, his son.

You made no mention of Ackerman, you put him into King's district.

[Former Moderate]

BTW I'm just tweaking my final map now, but why was there such controversy over shoring up Hochul?

Because Republicans will have to agree to whatever is done to the district. Democrats do not have full control of the process here.

[Verily]

BTW I'm just tweaking my final map now, but why was there such controversy over shoring up Hochul?

Because Republicans will have to agree to whatever is done to the district. Democrats do not have full control of the process here.

Republicans also do not, and the Democrats will just block any plan that eliminates two Democrats (as any plan that eliminates/fails to shore up Hochul would pretty much have to do). Failing to shore up Hochul (without clearly eliminating some other upstate Republican as well, which isn't going to happen without shoring up Hochul) isn't "bipartisan" or "partisan-neutral", it's a Republican plan.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I should note there isn't many options for eliminating an upstate Democrat. The upstate Democrats are Hochul, Higgins, Owens, Slaughter, Tonko and perhaps Hinchey.

Higgins' seat obviously can't be eliminated. You need a Democratic seat in Buffalo.
Slaughter will lose the earmuffs, but will just get a Democratic seat in Monroe county. Can't be eliminated.
Owens can't be eliminated because of geography.
Tonko's seat would be easy to carve up, but neighboring Republicans would definitely NOT want that. Not going to happen.
Hinchey's seat isn't really upstate, but there's a reason it crawls into upstate like that, and no Republicans are going to want the areas it takes in.

So that leaves Hochul as the only real eliminatable upstate Democrat, and to actually eliminate her seat (not just leave it as is to where she could easily lose in the future which is different) requires some pretty funky lines and may require something as bad the earmuffs, like a Buffalo to Syracuse district. A district was already lost in that area last time (John LaFalce's old seat) too.

NY-24 is the most logical and easiest upstate seat to eliminate it. Trash it and Weiner's seat and you have a "fair" loss of seats.

[timothyinMD]

Your map was quite similar to mine.  Mine gives Republicans 25% of NYC/LI/Westchester seats, which is still below our vote total for the area.

[BigSkyBob]

Your map was quite similar to mine.  Mine gives Republicans 25% of NYC/LI/Westchester seats, which is still below our vote total for the area.

So much for claims that a second Republican seat can't be drawn without hideous gerrymandering. Your 13th is compact, and your 7th, 10th, and 11th are where they need to be to comply with the VRA. Your 12th is practically what's left.

Nice map!

[timothyinMD]

It's pretty easy to draw 2 Republican NYC seats, that why Dems draw such hideously scrambled lines around Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens, to disperse the strongly Republican south Brooklyn area

[Smash255]

It's pretty easy to draw 2 Republican NYC seats, that why Dems draw such hideously scrambled lines around Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens, to disperse the strongly Republican south Brooklyn area

Dems draw??  The Congressional map has been a compromise map for decades...

[Lunar]

It's pretty easy to draw 2 Republican NYC seats, that why Dems draw such hideously scrambled lines around Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens, to disperse the strongly Republican south Brooklyn area

Sorry, but do you know what you're talking about?  The last round of redistricting had a Republican Governor and a Republican State Senate.

If the Dems could draw the Congressional map like they drew the Assembly map that year, the Congressional map could easily have zero Republican NYC seats by connecting Staten Island to Manhattan instead of Brooklyn.

NYC is a convoluted mess at the Congressional level, like all of New York State, due to incumbent protection gerrymandering mixing with VRA majority-minority districts, and the negative space created by those districts.

[BigSkyBob]

It's pretty easy to draw 2 Republican NYC seats, that why Dems draw such hideously scrambled lines around Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens, to disperse the strongly Republican south Brooklyn area

Sorry, but do you know what you're talking about?  

His map speaks for itself.

The last round of redistricting had a Republican Governor and a Republican State Senate.

If the Dems could draw the Congressional map like they drew the Assembly map that year, the Congressional map could easily have zero Republican NYC seats by connecting Staten Island to Manhattan instead of Brooklyn.

NYC is a convoluted mess at the Congressional level, like all of New York State, due to incumbent protection gerrymandering mixing with VRA majority-minority districts, and the negative space created by those districts.

[Lunar]

I agree that a Republican seat can easily be drawn in Brooklyn, but NYC's lines are not disfigured because of a Democratic plot to disrupt the Southern Brooklyn Republican vote.

[Lunar]

Also: Just because the Jewish Orthodox vote is cracked and diluted does not mean it's a Democratic plot.  The 100% Republican drawn State Senate map heavily divides the Jewish vote in Southern Brooklyn as well when it could have concentrated it.

It's a tricky voting bloc to have to deal with, is it that hard to believe that Republicans weren't comfortable dealing with it in 2000, when the Orthodox community voted much more heavily Democratic?

[Lunar]

If you push the NYC delegation north, what's the furthest north you can push the Downstate district that will be carved up?