US House Redistricting: New York
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cinyc
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« Reply #500 on: February 28, 2012, 03:29:21 PM »
« edited: February 28, 2012, 03:41:16 PM by cinyc »

NYS Senate Republicans are going to release a Congressional map tomorrow.  Whether that map is solely their map or a compromise map with Assembly Democrats remains to be seen.

Either way, it is a reaction to the federal court order that the legislature quickly provide a map by Wednesday, with objections to be heard by Friday.  The Congressional map is on a fast track.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #501 on: February 28, 2012, 03:48:31 PM »
« Edited: February 28, 2012, 04:02:55 PM by traininthedistance »

I think most plausible court-drawn maps would be on balance a mild net positive for the Democrats, though of course most of the incumbents in both parties would be absolutely livid.

Anyway, here's what I'd do if I was a court drawing the maps.  All districts within 1000 of ideal; no towns split north of Westchester/Rockland, and both town and village splits are minimized as much as practical downstate; obviously county splits are kept low as well.   I gave very little consideration to most incumbents here, and it shows.  I guess you could say that Turner and Gibson are the casualties here, but in the case of NYC it's a lot messier than that.  Gibson is pretty clearly axed though.

All racial stats are by VAP, of course; I'm not bothering with them outside of NYC.

On Long Island:



District 1: 52.0% Obama, 54.7% Dem.  Not much you can or should do with Tim Bishop's district, which remains swingy.  It does take parts of Islip instead of Smithtown; Islip's a huge town so I feel more comfortable splitting it instead.

District 2: 53.6% Obama, 55.3% Dem.  Now entirely within Suffolk County.  In fact, it's the rest of Suffolk save for a couple villages in Babylon- Amityville, Copiague, and Lindenhurst, a stub of what used be a huge South Shore cutout.  Cleaning up the lines, especially between 2 and 3, make this district a lot swingier, and Israel will have to fight for re-election, though he's still favored most years.

District 3: 50.3% Obama, 52.9% Dem.  The flip side of a weaker NY-2 is a weaker NY-3, as Peter King now has to represent what on paper is just R+1 if that.  In addition to all of Oyster Bay, King also takes in all of D-leaning North Hempstead from Ackerman, parts of Hempstead (some of which he had already), and a silver of NYC for population equality.  However, he'll probably still win most years.

District 4: 57.2% Obama, 58.5 Dem.  I really don't get why everyone wants to axe McCarthy, as it makes more sense to keep her in a district entirely within the town of Hempstead.  Okay, and Long Beach.

...

Onto NYC!



District 5: 64.9% Obama, 68.8 Dem; 35% White/17.8% Hispanic/40.1% Asian.  This is basically the Queens portions of both Ackerman's and Turner's districts; it's probably more recognizable to Ackerman and he'd likely win both the Dem primary and the general if he moved here from Long Island.  However, it's also drawn to be Asian-plurality (the only such district outside the West Coast), and could hopefully elect an Asian at some point.

District 6: 84% Obama, 85.5 Dem; 17.2% White/45.5% Black/17.1% Hisp./12.8% Asian.  Meeks' district has to expand, and it's impossible to keep it AA-majority and also entirely within Queens.  It's my opinion that crossing all sorts of jurisdictions to keep that magic 50%+1 shouldn't be required, especially as Meeks is no danger anyway.  Enough of the whites are Republican, and enough of the Hispanics and Asians don't vote, that this remains a rock-solid AA district in both the primary and general.  The primary axis of expansion is to unite the Rockaways all in one district, further contributing to the breakup of NY-9.

District 7: 76.9% Obama. 78.8% Dem; 25.8% White/51.9% Hispanic/13.7% Asian.  This seems like Velasquez's district, containing the core of her old district (Bushwick etc.) and upping it a few points by replacing the horrible gerrymander to Sunset Park with the much more nearby Jackson Heights/Corona area… except that Joe Crowley lives here (and it's not like he has anywhere else to run) and Velasquez doesn't.  Both of them will be super pissed.  To which I say too bad, this is a fair map.

District 8: 87.0% Obama, 85..2% Dem; 54.8% White/19.0% Hispanic/15.8% Asian.  Jerry Nadler gets a compact, sensible district entirely within Manhattan, as Boro Park is broken off and given to a Brooklyn district.  Along with Carolyn Maloney, he's the only NYC rep without at least a little bit of a complaint.

District 9: 75.4% Obama, 78.3% Dem; 52.8% White/23.5 % Hispanic/15.9% Asian.  This district is entirely new, though I guess like NY-7 its main lineage is Velasquez's old district.  Stretching from Greenpoint and Williamsburg in the north to Sunset Park, Chinatown (the Brooklyn version), and Boro Park in the south, it could best be described by the three "H"s of Williamsburg: hipsters, Hispanics, and Hasidics, and it also unites historic Brownstone Brooklyn (Park Slope, BoCoCa, Brookyn Heights, etc.)  Also grabs a tiny bit of the Lower East Side for population equality.  Despite the low Hispanic percentage Velasquez could run here anyway; this might also give Turner his best chance but really he's screwed.  Having spent a lot of time in Brooklyn over the past couple years, I can tell you from experience that a district like this deserves to exist.

District 10: 85.7% Obama, 86.8% Dem; 24.6% White/51.0% Black/16.7% Hispanic.  The two black districts in Brooklyn need to expand, and where they go is south.  So now Ed Towns has a bunch of Russian immigrants stuck at the southern end of his district.  Oh well.

District 11: 82.2% Obama, 84.4% Dem; 28.9% White/51.7% Black/11.5% Hispanic.  Unlike just about everywhere else on the map, I somewhat deferred to the old lines where drawing the boundary between 10 and 11, as that preserves the Carribean/West Indes population in 11.  This district completes the dismantling of Turner's district, withdrawing from Park Slope in order to go south, with its eventual destination the minority-heavy precincts in Coney Island.

District 12: 49.2% Obama, 52.4% Dem.  63.9% White/14.3 Hispanic/14.4% Asian.  Very little change for Grimm, just cleaning up some lines around Bensonhurst.  This district was already sensible.  Remains swingy but tilt-R most years.

District 13: 80.6% Obama, 76.8% Dem.  61.1% White/17.7% Hispanic/11.6% Asian.  Again, little change for Maloney beyond cleaning up some lines, and pushing north into Spanish Harlem because something needs to push north.  It doesn't threaten the VRA status of the next two districts, so it ought to be kosher.

District 14: 90.9% Obama, 91.5% Dem.  14.5% White/27.1% Black/52.6% Hispanic.  You can't make Rangel's district anything but majority-Hispanic without making it incredibly ugly.  Here I try to preserve Central Harlem at least, and draw in such as way as let Serrano's district go east without diluting it too much.  The lines in this part of the map may need to be fiddled with for VRA purposes, oh well.

District 15: 90.7% Obama, 91.6% Dem. 28.5% Black/59.2% Hispanic.  Serrano's core remains in the South Bronx, but this district also soaks up much of Crowley's territory in the Bronx.  I really didn't like that crossing, and would hope that a court would like it much either.

Upstate in the next post.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #502 on: February 28, 2012, 03:50:03 PM »
« Edited: February 28, 2012, 03:59:19 PM by traininthedistance »

And now we start heading upstate.  The NYC suburbs:



District 16: 66.6% Obama, 68.8% Dem.  46.8% White/25.1% Black/20.8% Hispanic.  Engel's district basically retains its Bronx-to-Yonkers-to-Rockland shape, and it's a weird gerrymandered shape that you'd expect to be dismantled in a court map, but it allows for the remainder of Westchester to entirely fill a district, so I say it stays. A couple towns are split here, but the village lines are followed as exactly as DRA will let me.

District 17: 63.2% Obama, 61.6% Dem.  An all-Westchester district for Lowey.  Nan Hayworth lives here but she'd run in 18 for sure.

District 18: 50.0% Obama, 53.0% Dem.  Orange, Putnam, and the more rural portions of both Rockland and Duchess.  This is a natural swingy exurbs district which is more Republican than its neighbors to both the south and the north.  Hayworth doesn't live here, but she'd run here.  I'd expect this district to be fiercely-contested every single cycle.

...

And finally, Upstate proper.  No towns are split here at all.



District 19: 56.2% Obama, 55.9% Dem.  Hinchey's old district sort of made sense except for the finger to Ithaca, so it excises that, and pushes further north and east to become a Hudson Valley-Catskills district that only goes as far out as Binghamton.  All of Columbia, Greene, Ulster, and Sullivan; also incudes the river portions of Duchess (such as Poughkeepsie), and most of Broome and Delaware, just leaving little cuts for population equality.  This district remains lean-D but it's a good deal swingier.  Chris Gibson actually lives here, but I suspect his best bet would be to challenge Owens in the new NY-21.

District 20: 57.6% Obama, 59.4% Dem.  Tonko pushes east to take all of Rensselaer and the southern tip of Saratoga instead of Montgomery, which makes the district even more clearly Albany-centric.  Doesn't change PVI much I don't think.

District 21: 52.5% Obama, 54.7% Dem.  Yes, the North County district needs to expand.  And the cleanest place for it to expand is Saratoga/Glens Falls, which is very much the gateway to the Adirondacks.  All of Clinton, Franklin, Lawrence, Essex, Warren, Washington, Lewis, Jefferson; most of Saratoga and one town in Herkimer which both equalizes population and makes the lines much neater.  This district is probably tilt-D now; Owens should be favored but he'll have to fight (and stay moderate); Gibson could try to move and run here as this district has much of his territory.

District 22: 47.4% Obama, 50.1% Dem.  The lines change a bunch but this is still Hanna's Mowhawk Valley district and he's even a bit safer if anything.  Oswego, Oneida, Madison, Chenango, Fulton, Montgomery, Otsego, almost all of Herkimer and a sliver of Delaware.  Could fall in a wave but it's pretty solidly R.

District 23: 59.3% Obama, 59.7% Dem.  I don't see any good reason not to do the Syracuse-to-Ithaca district.  Onondaga, Cayuga, Cortland, Tompkins, and the rest of Broome.  This configuration also has the benefit of creating a four-district West NY group that breaks off cleanly with no county splits.  Buerkle was probably a goner already, but now she's extra-goner; this is the safest Upstate district by Dem %.

District 24: 45.9% Obama, 45.8% Obama.  Finger Lakes and the Southern Tier, includes Chautaqua, Cattarugas, Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, Schuyler, Yates, Seneca, Wayne, portions of  Ontario and one town in Livingston.  I'd rather not split two counties between this and 26 but I couldn't find another good way to do it within my population tolerance.  Reed is safe here, this is the one R district that won't even fall in a heavy wave.

District 25: 58.5% Obama, 59.3% Dem.  Every single "fair" map has a district which is basically just 95 percent of Monroe County, and this is no exception.  Down with the earmuffs!  Should be reliably Dem for Slaughter and/or whoever replaces her.  Though they'd have to work a bit in bad years, oh no.

District 26: 46.8% Obama, 44.7% Dem.  The rest of Monroe, Livingston, and Ontario, all of Wyoming, Genesee, Orleans, and Niagara, and a few towns in Erie.  This district is not actually much more R than Hochul's current setup (as it helpfully adds Niagara Falls), but I've still managed to screw her over by putting her Amherst home in 27.  It wasn't on purpose, that's just how the population math worked out.

District 27: 60.8% Obama, 55.6% Dem.  Higgins will be more than fine in this compact all-Erie district, which no longer splits Buffalo.

So… if we assume that Crowley takes the Hispanic Queens district meant for Velasquez, and Velasquez takes the white-majority Brooklyn district where her home is… the body count is thus:  Hochul and Buerkle are screwed and replaced by the opposite party, Turner and Gibson are just screwed, several other districts are made swingier but their general lean stays the same (ex-Hinchey, Israel, King).  So, basically it's just as if both axed districts are Republican, but more Dems are endangered in wave years as compensation.  Sounds fair to me.
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cinyc
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« Reply #503 on: February 28, 2012, 04:06:39 PM »

It's not clear to me that the court isn't going to just pick a map from competing Assembly and Senate proposals instead of trying to draw its own.  Time is tight.  Everything needs to be completed in the next two weeks or so because the petitioning process for the primaries begins March 20.  That's because another federal court moved up the federal primaries to late June in order to comply with military absentee requirements.

According to media reports, the special master asked if there was any non-partisan staff on LATFOR, the joint NY Assemby-Senate task force responsible for redistricting.  She was told that there is no non-partisan person on staff.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #504 on: February 28, 2012, 06:21:47 PM »

Ah, machine states!


Promoting establishment power at the espense of the people, on a bipartisan basis, for 200 years. Roll Eyes
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #505 on: February 29, 2012, 08:27:13 AM »

District 6: 84% Obama, 85.5 Dem; 17.2% White/45.5% Black/17.1% Hisp./12.8% Asian.  Meeks' district has to expand, and it's impossible to keep it AA-majority and also entirely within Queens.  
Incorrect.

You've become yet another victim of the distinction between Black and non-Hispanic Black Only. Smiley
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #506 on: February 29, 2012, 11:39:31 AM »

Why would a court dismantle Turner's district instead of some combination of Ackerman, McCarthy, and King? The Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in southern Brooklyn form a pretty clear community of interest. If anything a fair map would unsplit the Jewish pockets instead of cracking them.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #507 on: February 29, 2012, 01:39:21 PM »

Why would a court dismantle Turner's district instead of some combination of Ackerman, McCarthy, and King?
False dichotomy. There is no reason to do either. Basically take train's 9th, 10th and 11th and align nw-ne-s instead, fiddle with the perimeter a bit, and hey presto, two Black districts and an Orthodox district.
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cinyc
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« Reply #508 on: February 29, 2012, 03:15:32 PM »

The Senate and Assembly are filing separate plans with the court today. 

The Senate Republicans' plan eliminates Hinchey and Ackerman's districts.  Charlie Rangel's district becomes a Hispanic majority district, likely solely in Manhattan and the Bronx.  44 counties are kept whole. 

The Assembly Democrats' plan also carves up Hinchey's district.  It combines Turner with a Democrat - or Democrat-leaning areas.  The exact mechanism is unclear, combining various Queens and Nassau districts, as is what happens to Rangel's district.

No maps yet, just two media blog entries here and here.
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cinyc
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« Reply #509 on: February 29, 2012, 03:28:45 PM »

The federal court is accepting maps from the public.  The deadline is Friday.
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Torie
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« Reply #510 on: February 29, 2012, 04:07:36 PM »


It's a federal court eh?  That means we are in for a "least change" map, subject to the VRA.  It will be interesting to see just how that is applied in the context of having to get rid of two seats. It might be fun to take a crack at it, since in this exercise where practicable, you pay your respects to the existing gerrymander. Tongue

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cinyc
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« Reply #511 on: February 29, 2012, 06:58:41 PM »
« Edited: February 29, 2012, 08:17:25 PM by cinyc »

The map proposed by Assembly Democrats Republicans is here.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #512 on: February 29, 2012, 07:42:39 PM »

The map proposed by Assembly Democrats is here.


It seems New York legislators believe it should take us as long to download the map as it took them to draw it.
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cinyc
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« Reply #513 on: February 29, 2012, 08:14:37 PM »
« Edited: February 29, 2012, 08:19:25 PM by cinyc »

The map proposed by Assembly Democrats is here.


It seems New York legislators believe it should take us as long to download the map as it took them to draw it.

It's probably the court's website straining to send out a 9MB file.

I made a mistake.  This is a map proposed by Assembly REPUBLICANS, not Democrats.

Strange map.  Rangel's district adds on parts of Queens currently represented by Maloney.  The rest of Maloney's district seems to be combined with Nadler's, which only includes Manhattan.  I'm not sure where she's supposed to run.  One Queens African-American majority district sprawls into Nassau.  Westchester is split four ways, with the Sound Shore put in a minority coalition district that includes the Bronx and Queens.  Hayworth's old NY-19 adds Poughkeepsie and Newburgh.   The new Southern Tier/Utica district gets custody of Ithaca.   The earmuffs are gone and Rochester gets its own district.  County splits seem minimized Upstate.

It would be interesting to see the partisan breakdowns.  DRA isn't working for New York for me.
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cinyc
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« Reply #514 on: February 29, 2012, 08:50:17 PM »

Here's the Assembly Republicans' proposal: 

Upstate


Long Island


NYC



The Assembly Democrat and Senate Republican proposals are still not available.  Senate Democrats aren't going to make a proposal.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #515 on: February 29, 2012, 09:14:33 PM »

Why would a court dismantle Turner's district instead of some combination of Ackerman, McCarthy, and King?
False dichotomy. There is no reason to do either. Basically take train's 9th, 10th and 11th and align nw-ne-s instead, fiddle with the perimeter a bit, and hey presto, two Black districts and an Orthodox district.


Here's a redo of South Brooklyn that would maximally concentrate Orthodox voting power:



The Orthodox district (which isn't actually all Orthodox at all- there's also the Russian immigrants, minority areas in Coney Island, and Italian/Asian areas in New Utrecht) is 44.2% Obama, 54.2% Dem.  If I had left the SI district alone (which I could have but it felt wrong to strand Sunset Park like that) it would be just over 47% Obama instead.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #516 on: February 29, 2012, 09:16:13 PM »

The Assembly Democrat and Senate Republican proposals are still not available.  Senate Democrats aren't going to make a proposal.

Not surprising since New York State Senate Democrats may be the most incompetent group of politicians ever.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #517 on: February 29, 2012, 09:22:38 PM »

Here's the Assembly Republicans' proposal: 

Upstate is actually pretty alright except for the Ithaca finger; I suspect NY-19 is about equidistant between Gibson and Hinchey's current PVIs, which should make for a fun, competitive district that's going to flip frequently.

NYC, on the other hand, is an abomination. NY-12 carving out Hell's Kitchen?  Queens-to-Rye for NY-16??!  They better not be serious.
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cinyc
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« Reply #518 on: February 29, 2012, 09:46:46 PM »
« Edited: February 29, 2012, 09:52:22 PM by cinyc »

This is a map of the Unity proposal, filed by various Hispanic and Asian legal defense type groups.  Note that the map is only of the NYC area.  They didn't even bother redistricting Upstate:



This plan literally axes Turner's NY-09.  There is no NY-09 on the map.
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jfern
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« Reply #519 on: February 29, 2012, 10:24:20 PM »

Those districts that span Manhattan and Brooklyn always look awful.
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cinyc
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« Reply #520 on: February 29, 2012, 11:10:44 PM »

Plaintiff-Intervenor Map, perhaps the strangest so far:

Upstate, LI:


NYC Inset:


This map seems to preserve the worst of the current gerrymandering with even newer oddly shaped features.   Rochester gets custody of Ithaca in a bizarrely-shaped district.  The Binghamton area is split into two CDs.  Utica gets combined into the North Country District.  And the Long Island districts are totally reworked, with a North Shore and South Shore district crossing county lines.

Hinchey's district is obviously dismantled.  What they eliminate downstate is less clear.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #521 on: February 29, 2012, 11:53:26 PM »

Plaintiff-Intervenor Map, perhaps the strangest so far:

Seems obviously like something drawn with a least-change mandate, except around Rochester of course.  Again, upstate is less "Hinchey dismantled" and more "Hinchey/Gibson combined".  In NYC it's actually crystal clear that Crowley and Turner's district are the two which get combined, which is actually pretty reasonable.  Upstate is actually not that bad either, except for the 23/26/27 troika.

I continue to hate that all of these maps want to preserve the Velasquez gerrymander and Nadler's Brooklyn portion... but the downstate portions are better than the Assembly Republican proposal at least.  The Unity map is a bit better than this one except for the reliance on water contiguity in NY-7.

I think if I had to choose between these three proposals, all of which mostly suck in different ways, I'd take the Plaintiff-Intervenor's Long Island, Unity's NYC, and the Assembly R's Upstate.
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cinyc
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« Reply #522 on: March 01, 2012, 12:08:10 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2012, 12:28:12 AM by cinyc »

The NYS Senate Republicans' map:



Syracuse gets custody of Ithaca.  The Albany district gets part of Ulster County in the Hinchey Carve-Up.  As we already knew, Ackerman faces off against McCarthy.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #523 on: March 01, 2012, 12:26:36 AM »

The NYS Senate Republicans' map:

This is the first one where I think you can actually say for sure it's Hinchey's district that gets eliminated.  And the results are predictably bad- but then they balance it out by having the best West NY we've seen so far.

As for NYC... they've managed to make South Brooklyn even uglier than the current map.  Good job!
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« Reply #524 on: March 01, 2012, 01:54:06 AM »

Senate Republicans' Albany district is really astoundingly awful.
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