US House Redistricting: New York

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Mind you by the way I don't have a problem carving up Borough Park either since it's basically the most fascist place in America. A place that votes similar to Iraqi "elections" under Saddam Hussein that is mostly populated by zealots who salivate over murdered Palestinian children and want to massacre Iranians? Terrible terrible place. And that's not even getting started on their views on women...

One of most idiotic statements i've read on this forum...

Obviously you haven't read JJ's analysis of the Bradley effect.

is there a link?

[cinyc]

There was one other map that is mentioned in some of the court filings, though I don't see it in the docket.  It is the Common Cause New York "Reform" Map.  It radically changes many current  districts, pitting many incumbents together.   And because they used EDs as the basis for district lines, maximum deviation is much greater than 1. 

The map with explanation is available here.  Or, you can see the map on Newsday's DRA-lke mapping page, from which I took these screenshots of the plan:

State:


NYC Metro:

[muon2]

I had hoped to put together a plan for submission last night, but my DRA hung at about 10:30 when I was checking the districts prior to creating a file. But I can still share my work here.

I based my plan on the same model I used in the CA exercise. I started with regions of whole counties that were nearly equal to a whole number of districts:

Southern NY (CD 1-19, +1398)
Northern NY (CD 20-22, -702)
Western NY (CD 23-27, -695)

The regions were divided based on nearly whole counties with at most one town split in a county. Splits were used to get all deviations under 0.1% at the precinct level, and all but two districts are under 300 deviation. This is the resulting map for the state:



Within the NYC area districts were grouped to fit counties as well:
LI (CD 1-4, -37,948)
Queens (CD 5-7, +77,600)
Brooklyn/SI (CD 8-11, +102,600)
Manhattan/Bronx (CD 12-15, +100,151)
Lower Hudson (CD 16-19, -241,005)

Shifts and additional county breaks were made to get 3 Black-majority districts and 3 Hispanic-majority districts. The NYC area map look like this:



Here are the demographics including VAPs over 20%. Estimated PVIs are based on the 2008 Pres using Torie's spreadsheet factor.

LONG ISLAND
CD 1 (Smithtown) W 80.1% [R+2]
CD 2 (Islip) W 66.2% [D+1]
CD 3 (Hicksville) W 71.2% [R+1]
CD 4 (Hempstead) W 64.2% [D+1]

QUEENS
CD 5 (Flushing) W 43.4%, A 33.9% [D+9]
CD 6 (S Jamaica) B 50.4% [D+33]
CD 7 (Corona) H 59.4% [D+30]

BROOKLYN/STATEN ISLAND
CD 8 (Borough Park) W 55.7% A 23.4% [R+5]
CD 9 (Staten Island) W 67.1% [R+5]
CD 10 (East NY) W 23.6%, B 50.2% [D+38]
CD 11 (Flatbush) W 30.6%, B 50.3% [D+38]

MANHATTAN/BRONX
CD 12 (Manhattan) W 64.2% [D+31]
CD 13 (Harlem) B 28.2%, H 52.1% [D+40]
CD 14 (Triboro) W 54.1%, H 23.8% [D+24]
CD 15 (South Bronx) B 29.3%, H 63.1% [D+41]

LOWER HUDSON
CD 16 (Yonkers) W 41.3%, B 29.0%, H 23.3% [D+18]
CD 17 (White Plains) W 67.9% [D+5]
CD 18 (Newburgh) W 75.1% [D+1]
CD 19 (Albany) W 77.3% [D+5]

NORTHERN NY
CD 20 (Schenectady) W 90.0% [R+1]
CD 21 (Utica) W 90.2% [R+2]
CD 22 (Syracuse) W 85.8% [D+3]

WESTERN NY
CD 23 (Binghampton) W 88.9% [D+0]
CD 24 (Niagara Falls) W 91.6% [R+6]
CD 25 (Rochester) W 76.0% [D+6]
CD 26 (Elmira) W 93.1% [R+8]
CD 27 (Buffalo) W 76.5% [D+9]

[Torie]

That map is very well done, Mike - considerably better than the maps the Pubs submitted, even though yours is a quite Pub friendly map obviously. Did you find it as difficult as I to find a good map of the town lines in Nassau County (clearly you did find such a map)? (Nassau has 3 towns and 2 cities, the rest being villages, I now find out.) The towns do not appear on the DRA maps.

[muon2]

That map is very well done, Mike - considerably better than the maps the Pubs submitted, even though yours is a quite Pub friendly map obviously. Did you find it as difficult as I to find a good map of the town lines in Nassau County (clearly you did find such a map)? (Nassau has 3 towns and 2 cities, the rest being villages, I now find out.) The towns do not appear on the DRA maps.

Thanks, I can only wonder what the special master would have made of my work. Unfortunately there was no time other than Friday for me to put a plan together, and when DRA hung at the end of the day, I had no chance to get all the parts in. Alas.

I have town maps, but there is a way to get it directly on DRA. The first two digits of a VTD in NY are the town code. When you hover over a VTD in DRA the VTD ID is at the top of the box.

[Devils30]

That map gives the Dems a good chance to win Peter King's seat once he retires (currently not the case).

[cinyc]

That map is very well done, Mike - considerably better than the maps the Pubs submitted, even though yours is a quite Pub friendly map obviously. Did you find it as difficult as I to find a good map of the town lines in Nassau County (clearly you did find such a map)? (Nassau has 3 towns and 2 cities, the rest being villages, I now find out.) The towns do not appear on the DRA maps.

Newsday's DRA-like mapper has a layer that shows town lines instead of villages and whatever else DRA uses (census designated areas, perhaps).

The Plaintiffs and other parties would have made the same argument about muon2's map as they did Common Cause's - it pits incumbents against each other and is not a least change map from current lines.  It also doesn't have exact population equality (in this case, largely due to limitations in the DRA software).  The racial grievance groups would have attacked the map because it eliminates the awful NY-12, putting Chinatown and Sunset Park in separate districts, diluting the Chinese vote.  That seems to be a big bugaboo with the Asian legal defense group.

Too bad muon2 missed the deadline.  The order wanted public submissions to include a block equivalency file.  Does DRA even do that? 

[muon2]

That map is very well done, Mike - considerably better than the maps the Pubs submitted, even though yours is a quite Pub friendly map obviously. Did you find it as difficult as I to find a good map of the town lines in Nassau County (clearly you did find such a map)? (Nassau has 3 towns and 2 cities, the rest being villages, I now find out.) The towns do not appear on the DRA maps.

Newsday's DRA-like mapper has a layer that shows town lines instead of villages and whatever else DRA uses (census designated areas, perhaps).

The Plaintiffs and other parties would have made the same argument about muon2's map as they did Common Cause's - it pits incumbents against each other and is not a least change map from current lines.  It also doesn't have exact population equality (in this case, largely due to limitations in the DRA software).  The racial grievance groups would have attacked the map because it eliminates the awful NY-12, putting Chinatown and Sunset Park in separate districts, diluting the Chinese vote.  That seems to be a big bugaboo with the Asian legal defense group.

Too bad muon2 missed the deadline.  The order wanted public submissions to include a block equivalency file.  Does DRA even do that? 

You can save a DRA plan as a csv. It has the VTD equivalencies instead of blocks, but it can be reconstructed. This was used for public submissions for WA.

The plan is to suggest districts to the special master. The master will provide a final plan, so if the suggestion is not exact in population, the master can make the necessary adjustments. In any case I assume that the population used by the special master is LATFOR data and is adjusted from the raw census data. Any submission that was not LATFOR would need to be corrected by the master.

The Asian objections are noted, but there is no VRA protection since there is not a compact 50% AVAP district available. Both compact neighborhoods are kept intact. My plan improves on the current CD 12 by making CD 7 more Hispanic than 12 is now and better able to elect a candidate of choice.

[NY Jew]

If it looked like it was being intentionally split up to dilute representation of a specific group and not other groups that would be one thing, but in this case almost the entire City of New York looks like grass script and there are plenty of other pissed-off groups.

It's clearly intentionally split up to dilute representation of a specific group.

Here's the evidence there is 1 neighborhood in the country that has 5 Congressional seats and 0 that have exactly 4 districts.   This group is also gerrymandered in other neighborhoods on every single level of government.  What is the likelihood that the demographic that is the most visible of the demographic  that has the most hate crimes against them in the country is divided for totally honest reasons.  (when Bed Stuy was similarly divided they added Brooklyn to the voting Rights Act)

if you truly believe what you just said I now realize there's a third possibility your blind.

[NY Jew]

I'm to rushed now to deal with the rest of statement  (and just for the record I didn't accuse of antisemitism (it was conditional) just aiding and abetting it)

You said "You are a anti-semite (on some level.)" Ok, so you're not accusing him of anti-Semitism, just saying he's an anti-semite.

do you know how to read?
this is what I wrote

You must be logged in to read this quote.

here's the definition of conditional

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[NY Jew]

I don't take kindly to insinuations that I'm prejudiced against elements of my own ethnic and cultural background. Also 'anti-Semite' does not mean 'prejudiced against Jews who practice what NY Jew considers 'acceptable' Judaism'. It means 'prejudiced against Jews'.

Why do you assume I would 'sell you down the river for a dollar'? I have no interest in keeping Borough Park and Flatbush split as they are. Almost every aspect of the division of New York City at present is absurd. There is a difference between wanting a more reasonable split and insisting that a specifically Orthodox Jewish district be created just because you personally don't like the Jews currently in the US House, which is frankly ridiculous. It is not equivalent to insisting that an LGBT district be created (which is absurd anyway. If it looked like it was being intentionally split up to dilute representation of a specific group and not other groups that would be one thing, but in this case almost the entire City of New York looks like grass script and there are plenty of other pissed-off groups, I assure you) but rather to saying that even though LGBT people are in Congress at several times the rate of their preponderance in the population (which they are not, for what it's worth), they're the wrong kind of LGBT people and the VRA needs to be exercised to ensure representation of specific interest groups within that set of people.

This is certainly a horrible and uncalled-for gerrymander, but it's political, not ethnic or religious. The things that you're complaining about and feel persecuted based on are political in character.

What you're asking for isn't ridiculous or even particularly unreasonable but it hasn't got terribly much to do with the VRA and the way you're going about asking for it is...well, yeah. I can try to draw a district for you of the sort that you'd want (it actually might be a lot of fun looking over demographic stats to see how the 'white' areas of southern Brooklyn break down ethnically), but I'd like an apology first.

actually it is 100% based on religiosity (the gerrymandering started before we started voting Republican ) and there is no area in the country that comes even close to this in terms of gerrymandering and it is done even for relatively small communities.

All right, fine. I'll take a crack at doing a New York redistricting and we'll see if the resulting district  makes sense. My prediction is that I can get it up to about 40-42% Jewish before it starts getting ridiculous.

according to the UJA in 2002 Southern Brooklyn had 333,600 jews (that is more then half of a Congressional district in 2002 redistricting)
for example according to the 2000 census the current 8th Congressional district 654,360 people.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The reasons why I'm not immensely fond of Borough Park and 'Flatbush' have nothing to do with the religion of the people there, even if I take your word for it that the gerrymander does.
[/quote]
just because you're not an Anti Semite (and since you answered my question in a way that seems like your not one, I believe you) doesn't mean you just aiding and abetting Antisemitism.

[NY Jew]

I don't take kindly to insinuations that I'm prejudiced against elements of my own ethnic and cultural background. Also 'anti-Semite' does not mean 'prejudiced against Jews who practice what NY Jew considers 'acceptable' Judaism'. It means 'prejudiced against Jews'.

Why do you assume I would 'sell you down the river for a dollar'? I have no interest in keeping Borough Park and Flatbush split as they are. Almost every aspect of the division of New York City at present is absurd. There is a difference between wanting a more reasonable split and insisting that a specifically Orthodox Jewish district be created just because you personally don't like the Jews currently in the US House, which is frankly ridiculous. It is not equivalent to insisting that an LGBT district be created (which is absurd anyway. If it looked like it was being intentionally split up to dilute representation of a specific group and not other groups that would be one thing, but in this case almost the entire City of New York looks like grass script and there are plenty of other pissed-off groups, I assure you) but rather to saying that even though LGBT people are in Congress at several times the rate of their preponderance in the population (which they are not, for what it's worth), they're the wrong kind of LGBT people and the VRA needs to be exercised to ensure representation of specific interest groups within that set of people.

This is certainly a horrible and uncalled-for gerrymander, but it's political, not ethnic or religious. The things that you're complaining about and feel persecuted based on are political in character.

What you're asking for isn't ridiculous or even particularly unreasonable but it hasn't got terribly much to do with the VRA and the way you're going about asking for it is...well, yeah. I can try to draw a district for you of the sort that you'd want (it actually might be a lot of fun looking over demographic stats to see how the 'white' areas of southern Brooklyn break down ethnically), but I'd like an apology first.

actually it is 100% based on religiosity (the gerrymandering started before we started voting Republican ) and there is no area in the country that comes even close to this in terms of gerrymandering and it is done even for relatively small communities.

All right, fine. I'll take a crack at doing a New York redistricting and we'll see if the resulting district  makes sense. My prediction is that I can get it up to about 40-42% Jewish before it starts getting ridiculous.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The reasons why I'm not immensely fond of Borough Park and 'Flatbush' have nothing to do with the religion of the people there, even if I take your word for it that the gerrymander does.

The population of Brooklyn only has enough blacks for 1 full district. If one operates under the assumption that they get 2 districts, obviously, 1 has to come at the expense of something else.


The 11th district was 74% black after the 1990 redistricting, 71% black in 2000, 60% black after the 2002 redistricting, and about 58% black now.

I easily made a map that kept 2 majority black seats and the Hispanic Brooklyn seat that united Southern Brooklyn in to mostly 1 district and the rest was stuck in with Grimm. 

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

...Jews have the most hate crimes against them in the country? Where are you getting these statistics? Is this reported hate crimes, convicted hate crimes, accused hate crimes, or suspected hate crimes? Is it absolute or per capita? Because...I mean, I don't think you're lying, but I'd appreciate more specificity and some sources because I have a difficult time believing that some of these categories aren't dominated by Mexicans by a country mile.

All right, fine. It's a gerrymander by somebody who wants to dilute the voting power of Orthodox Jews. It took a while because I couldn't understand why exactly that would be the case but you've convinced me of that; congratulations. I never said I supported the current state of affairs in Brooklyn and I still don't. I also still don't know that there would be an inherent anti-Semitic, rather than political, motivation for the gerrymander, considering the Judaism of many of the people doing the gerrymander. If it's internal friction within the Jewish community, which I actually think is quite likely considering the differences between Orthodox and non-Orthodox Jews in New York, fine, but calling that anti-Semitic is somewhat nonsensical. It's certainly unfair to the Orthodox Jewish community, but I don't think it can be fairly described as inherently anti-Semitic  even if some of the people doing it are, because there are also people involved in doing it who far from being anti-Semitic are Jews, just not a kind who your kind of Jews likes or is liked by. Or, rather, the process can perhaps be described that way but not all of the people doing or supporting it can be.

The numbers of Jews in South Brooklyn you're quoting are enough for somewhere in the low forties if we don't do a total pack, high forties if we do, which is an Orthodox-opportunity district and in which the Orthodox community could probably elect the candidate of their choice in most years (the only exceptions would be if all the non-Orthodox parts of the district supported someone else or if the Orthodox community was itself split), but not Orthodox-majority. The ideal size for a CD in New York has risen to about 717,000.

[NY Jew]

...Jews have the most hate crimes against them in the country? Where are you getting these statistics? Is this reported hate crimes, convicted hate crimes, accused hate crimes, or suspected hate crimes? Is it absolute or per capita? Because...I mean, I don't think you're lying, but I'd appreciate more specificity and some sources because I have a difficult time believing that some of these categories aren't dominated by Mexicans by a country mile.

per capita (sorry I should have stated that)
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses
now figure out the rates per capita (though this most likely will lead to a discussion of what% of Americans have had homosexual relations)

[NY Jew]

The numbers of Jews in South Brooklyn you're quoting are enough for somewhere in the low forties if we don't do a total pack, high forties if we do, which is an Orthodox-opportunity district and in which the Orthodox community could probably elect the candidate of their choice in most years (the only exceptions would be if all the non-Orthodox parts of the district supported someone else or if the Orthodox community was itself split), but not Orthodox-majority. The ideal size for a CD in New York has risen to about 717,000.

if I pack to make a Jewish majority district in Southern Brooklyn (by the way my southern Brooklyn numbers didn't include bay Ridge) it would be the 2nd most compact district in the state after Serrano (keep in mind that the Jewish demographics here live very close to one another and there are blocks that may be 100% jewish)

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

...Jews have the most hate crimes against them in the country? Where are you getting these statistics? Is this reported hate crimes, convicted hate crimes, accused hate crimes, or suspected hate crimes? Is it absolute or per capita? Because...I mean, I don't think you're lying, but I'd appreciate more specificity and some sources because I have a difficult time believing that some of these categories aren't dominated by Mexicans by a country mile.

per capita (sorry I should have stated that)
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses
now figure out the rates per capita (though this most likely will lead to a discussion of what% of Americans have had homosexual relations)

This seems to be reported. A lot of hate crimes against Mexicans are unreported. It's also the overwhelming majority of religiously-motivated hate crimes, which are a minority of all hate crimes, but it does seem like per capita you're probably right. That surprises me a little (and upsets, since a quarter of my family and probably a greater proportion of my friends and colleagues are Jewish). Thanks for citing the source. (Being gay can be measured so many different ways and is so much easier for people to not tell the truth about when asked that that's really not a conversation I'm interested in having, especially since the numbers that you and I would probably quote are actually the opposite, relatively speaking, of the ones that would help our respective cases.)

if I pack to make a Jewish majority district in Southern Brooklyn (by the way my southern Brooklyn numbers didn't include bay Ridge) it would be the 2nd most compact district in the state after Serrano (keep in mind that the Jewish demographics here live very close to one another and there are blocks that may be 100% jewish)

Try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. I'm skeptical that you can get it over 50%, especially if we're using VAP, but I'd definitely like to see.

When I tried to eyeball a compact South Brooklyn CD earlier, I was using DRA so it wasn't clear how much of 'white' was Jewish, and also I ended up having to include more Democratic parts of Brooklyn in Grimm's district such that it actually shifts several points Democratic, so it seems likely to me that were you to successfully create the district that you're talking about we'd still end up with only the one Republican CD in the city most years (possibly zero if some hawkish, religiously conservative Jewish Democrat got elected from the hypothetical district that we are discussing).

[NY Jew]

(Being gay can be measured so many different ways and is so much easier for people to not tell the truth about when asked that that's really not a conversation I'm interested in having)

I knew we'll agree on something with if we argued long enough.

[NY Jew]

Try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. I'm skeptical that you can get it over 50%, especially if we're using VAP, but I'd definitely like to see.

When I tried to eyeball a compact South Brooklyn CD earlier, I was using DRA so it wasn't clear how much of 'white' was Jewish, and also I ended up having to include more Democratic parts of Brooklyn in Grimm's district such that it actually shifts several points Democratic, so it seems likely to me that were you to successfully create the district that you're talking about we'd still end up with only the one Republican CD in the city most years (possibly zero if some hawkish, religiously conservative Jewish Democrat got elected from the hypothetical district that we are discussing).

I don't know how to upload maps on this website.
the key is to move Grimm out of Brooklyn and towards the Rockways
Grimm would be +2
and the New Jewish district would be +9

and in regards to weather or not the there was a Democrat or a Republican though I would prefer a Republican I would vote for someone like Noach Dear, or Dov Hikind way before I would vote for most NY state Republicans.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

That's still a couple points more marginal than the current NY-13 but using the Rockaways is an interesting idea. I hadn't considered that. Do you route him through Coney Island or something?

ETA: Oh. Water contiguity through Raritan Bay. I didn't know state waters went out far enough for that. Interesting.

[muon2]

Try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. I'm skeptical that you can get it over 50%, especially if we're using VAP, but I'd definitely like to see.

When I tried to eyeball a compact South Brooklyn CD earlier, I was using DRA so it wasn't clear how much of 'white' was Jewish, and also I ended up having to include more Democratic parts of Brooklyn in Grimm's district such that it actually shifts several points Democratic, so it seems likely to me that were you to successfully create the district that you're talking about we'd still end up with only the one Republican CD in the city most years (possibly zero if some hawkish, religiously conservative Jewish Democrat got elected from the hypothetical district that we are discussing).

I don't know how to upload maps on this website.
the key is to move Grimm out of Brooklyn and towards the Rockways
Grimm would be +2
and the New Jewish district would be +9

and in regards to weather or not the there was a Democrat or a Republican though I would prefer a Republican I would vote for someone like Noach Dear, or Dov Hikind way before I would vote for most NY state Republicans.

If you are looking for the Orthodox precincts in DRA, use the option to color by election. They will show up as strongly McCain compared to everything else. Though I was motivated by geography and the black-majority districts, I suspect it would look similar to CD 8 in my map above (reposted here).

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

muon, about what's the PVI on your NY-09?

[NY Jew]

Try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. I'm skeptical that you can get it over 50%, especially if we're using VAP, but I'd definitely like to see.

When I tried to eyeball a compact South Brooklyn CD earlier, I was using DRA so it wasn't clear how much of 'white' was Jewish, and also I ended up having to include more Democratic parts of Brooklyn in Grimm's district such that it actually shifts several points Democratic, so it seems likely to me that were you to successfully create the district that you're talking about we'd still end up with only the one Republican CD in the city most years (possibly zero if some hawkish, religiously conservative Jewish Democrat got elected from the hypothetical district that we are discussing).

I don't know how to upload maps on this website.
the key is to move Grimm out of Brooklyn and towards the Rockways
Grimm would be +2
and the New Jewish district would be +9

and in regards to weather or not the there was a Democrat or a Republican though I would prefer a Republican I would vote for someone like Noach Dear, or Dov Hikind way before I would vote for most NY state Republicans.

If you are looking for the Orthodox precincts in DRA, use the option to color by election. They will show up as strongly McCain compared to everything else. Though I was motivated by geography and the black-majority districts, I suspect it would look similar to CD 8 in my map above (reposted here).

No I move it Southeast and take in all of Coney Island (from Manhattan Beach to Sea Gate) and Mill Basin (both have very big Jewish communities)

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

The thing is, I'm not sure how you can keep NY-13 R+[non-zero] if you do that. The district that I'm making right now is partway between muon's and what you seem to be describing. I had to use Mill Basin and Coney Island to keep NY-13 Republican. I'll keep trying, though; I might just run NY-13 further up through Queens to see if I can make it go to Parkside or thereabouts. How wedded are you to Bay Ridge?

[NY Jew]

The thing is, I'm not sure how you can keep NY-13 R+[non-zero] if you do that. The district that I'm making right now is partway between muon's and what you seem to be describing. I had to use Mill Basin and Coney Island to keep NY-13 Republican. I'll keep trying, though; I might just run NY-13 further up through Queens to see if I can make it go to Parkside or thereabouts. How wedded are you to Bay Ridge?

once I get to the Rockways I follow the Turner district and take in Howard Beach.
I also include Dyker Heights, Bayridge and Bath Beach (which have almost no jews) in Grimm
this map is closer to what I had in mind for the Jewish district

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.