US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135317 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #700 on: March 06, 2012, 07:57:27 AM »

Are there any hipsters in Queens? Bands from there tend to be either pop punk, "tough guy" hardcore, or metalcore.

LIC and Astoria have some.

Yeah, that's why I suggested you add those to Williamsburg.

I'll take another look at your Brooklyn district and see how many Hispanics/Conservative whites you added to your hipster district. Your map obviously drowns out South Brooklyn whites.
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muon2
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« Reply #701 on: March 06, 2012, 08:35:46 AM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 09:43:03 AM by muon2 »

The special master has posted a proposed plan. Comments due by Wednesday.

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NY Jew
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« Reply #702 on: March 06, 2012, 08:42:22 AM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 10:18:33 AM by NY Jew »

once again we get an anti Semitic map that Destroys NYC's Jewish voice.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #703 on: March 06, 2012, 08:52:39 AM »

In the case of the MN state courts in 2002 there was little regard for the traditional 4-corners plan, and they switched to a 5 and 3 plan.

The proposal by Governor Ventura was so logical it could not be ignored.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #704 on: March 06, 2012, 09:00:10 AM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 09:43:27 AM by muon2 »

The special master has posted a proposed plan. Comments due by Wednesday.

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Surprisingly non-horrible.  The only things I find particularly objectionable are a) Velasquez's district continuing to snake down to Sunset Park rather than Jackson Heights (also W'burg and Greenpoint really ought to be together), but I knew that was going to happen, and b) drowning Ithaca in the Southern Tier district.  I do wish NY-5 could just stay within Queens, but I recognize that may not actually be allowed- at least they united the Rockaways.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #705 on: March 06, 2012, 09:02:04 AM »

That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #706 on: March 06, 2012, 09:05:20 AM »

That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?

I'm certain 8 is still AA majority, and 9 probably is as well.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #707 on: March 06, 2012, 09:08:53 AM »

Also: I bet Steve Israel and Peter King are both absolutely furious right now.  Long Island just got a hell of a lot more competitive.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #708 on: March 06, 2012, 09:23:26 AM »

Also: I bet Steve Israel and Peter King are both absolutely furious right now.  Long Island just got a hell of a lot more competitive.

Certainly both of them can lobby the legislature to give them a legislative map.
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muon2
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« Reply #709 on: March 06, 2012, 09:45:24 AM »

That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?

I'm certain 8 is still AA majority, and 9 probably is as well.

There are three BVAP majority districts, but only one HVAP majority, with two plurality. I'm not sure why the Latinos would be happy with that.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #710 on: March 06, 2012, 09:54:30 AM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 09:56:57 AM by traininthedistance »

That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?

I'm certain 8 is still AA majority, and 9 probably is as well.

There are three BVAP majority districts, but only one HVAP majority, with two plurality. I'm not sure why the Latinos would be happy with that.

I think you missed Rangel's district- there are two HVAP majority (Rangel and Serrano), and two HVAP plurality (Crowley and Velasquez).

Also of interest: NY-6 (which is presumably where Ackerman would move to, but also where Rory Lancman probably wants to run) appears to be plurality Asian, but whites have a higher VAP?
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muon2
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« Reply #711 on: March 06, 2012, 10:14:07 AM »

That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?

I'm certain 8 is still AA majority, and 9 probably is as well.

There are three BVAP majority districts, but only one HVAP majority, with two plurality. I'm not sure why the Latinos would be happy with that.

I think you missed Rangel's district- there are two HVAP majority (Rangel and Serrano), and two HVAP plurality (Crowley and Velasquez).

Also of interest: NY-6 (which is presumably where Ackerman would move to, but also where Rory Lancman probably wants to run) appears to be plurality Asian, but whites have a higher VAP?

Thanks, that makes more sense. I was getting up the post and missed the new 13. I wonder if 55% HVAP is considered high enough to elect a candidate of choice?

NY-6 would still be plurality white VAP: NHWVAP 39.9%, AVAP 38.8%.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #712 on: March 06, 2012, 10:19:59 AM »

The special master has posted a proposed plan. Comments due by Wednesday.

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Surprisingly non-horrible.  The only things I find particularly objectionable are a) Velasquez's district continuing to snake down to Sunset Park rather than Jackson Heights (also W'burg and Greenpoint really ought to be together), but I knew that was going to happen, and b) drowning Ithaca in the Southern Tier district.  I do wish NY-5 could just stay within Queens, but I recognize that may not actually be allowed- at least they united the Rockaways.

Please defend Yevvete Clarke and Nadler getting the Orthodox Jewish Community and Towns getting the Russian Jewish Community.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #713 on: March 06, 2012, 10:28:56 AM »

The special master has posted a proposed plan. Comments due by Wednesday.

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how do we make comments?
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #714 on: March 06, 2012, 12:06:50 PM »

Are there any hipsters in Queens? Bands from there tend to be either pop punk, "tough guy" hardcore, or metalcore.

LIC and Astoria have some.

Oh yeah I once bought a record on ebay from someone in Astoria.
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« Reply #715 on: March 06, 2012, 12:14:22 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 12:24:45 PM by The Old World Is Behind Us »

First impressions:

-Yes, the earmuffs are gone.
-Staten Island's district is now much safer for Grimm, though that was probably to be expected, it figured it'd head toward Gravesend instead of Park Slope.
-That might also be the price we pay for getting rid of Turner, who had the core of that seat ripped up and put in the black majority 8th.
-I don't have enough tough time to run the numbers in Long Island now, but is King in danger? Possibly looks that way...
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krazen1211
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« Reply #716 on: March 06, 2012, 12:25:46 PM »

Obama McCain numbers:

27: 44.5%-53.9% Hochul
26: 63.5%-35.0% Higgins
25: 58.8%-39.9% Slaughter
24: 56.2%-42.0% Buerkhle
23: 49.5%-48.8% Reed
22: 49.1%-49.1% Hanna
21: 51.6%-46.8% Owens
20: 58.3%-39.8% Tonko
19: 52.8%-45.4% Gibson
17: 58.0%-41.2% Lowery
18: 52.1%-46.8% Hayworth
4: 55.3-43.9% McCarthy
1: 51.4-47.6 Bishop
2: 51.2-47.9 King
3: 53.5-45.6 Israel



I still suspect that King/Israel will get their districts redone.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #717 on: March 06, 2012, 12:42:10 PM »

Obama McCain numbers:

27: 44.5%-53.9% Hochul
26: 63.5%-35.0% Higgins
25: 58.8%-39.9% Slaughter
24: 56.2%-42.0% Buerkhle
23: 49.5%-48.8% Reed
22: 49.1%-49.1% Hanna
21: 51.6%-46.8% Owens
20: 58.3%-39.8% Tonko
19: 52.8%-45.4% Gibson
17: 58.0%-41.2% Lowery
18: 52.1%-46.8% Hayworth
4: 55.3-43.9% McCarthy
1: 51.4-47.6 Bishop
2: 51.2-47.9 King
3: 53.5-45.6 Israel



I still suspect that King/Israel will get their districts redone.

Do we have numbers for 11 (Grimm)?
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Devils30
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« Reply #718 on: March 06, 2012, 12:49:57 PM »

from my standpoint i dont mind this...a lot of competitive districts
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Miles
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« Reply #719 on: March 06, 2012, 01:15:55 PM »

I don't like the special master's map because it screws Hochul.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #720 on: March 06, 2012, 01:27:12 PM »

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/06/1071680/-NY-Special-Master-Map-statistics?via=sidebytagfeed

Full data.
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Torie
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« Reply #721 on: March 06, 2012, 01:28:49 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 02:10:44 PM by Torie »

Yes, Turner is flushed. That is the bad news for the Pubs. The good news however on Long Island, is that while King is made more marginal, he should hang on, while it is not clear whether Israel can hang on with his CD having a lot of new territory. His CD is now close to dead even from a partisan baseline standpoint.  McCarthy's CD is now but weak lean or tilt Dem, and she may have trouble too. She is no dominatrix, and also has a lot of new territory, although not as much as Israel. All in all, the 4 Long Island CD's give me a warm fuzzy feeling from a partisan standpoint. They're all pretty marginal, and the obnoxious and irritating King (why do Pubs in Congress named King seem to annoy me so?) no longer has a free ride (but should be in better shape than either McCarthy or Israel), while Israel and McCarthy may have a struggle. Israel in particular is going to need to get more moderate in a hurry. Perfecto!

Upstate looks pretty good for the Pubs too. Hinchey is flushed, and Burkle should have a fighting chance to hang on, although I have not drawn anything but the 4 Long Island CD's. The map is not exact, but it is close enough for government work.  I drew it in a hurry. If Krazen's numbers are from a published source, my bad I guess to the extent I am off.

Hey Lewis, the Meeks CD butted into Nassau County in almost the exact way that I previously drew it. Tongue






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krazen1211
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« Reply #722 on: March 06, 2012, 01:58:20 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 02:07:21 PM by krazen1211 »

Ackerman stakes his claim on the 6th. I guess he didn't want Crowley getting there first.


Schumer won all 27 districts. Gillibrand won 26.
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Torie
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« Reply #723 on: March 06, 2012, 02:06:08 PM »

I don't like the special master's map because it screws Hochul.

It was a Pub CD before, and Hochul just had a temporary lease on it due to special circumstances.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #724 on: March 06, 2012, 02:13:36 PM »

That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?

I'm certain 8 is still AA majority, and 9 probably is as well.

There are three BVAP majority districts, but only one HVAP majority, with two plurality. I'm not sure why the Latinos would be happy with that.

I think you missed Rangel's district- there are two HVAP majority (Rangel and Serrano), and two HVAP plurality (Crowley and Velasquez).

Also of interest: NY-6 (which is presumably where Ackerman would move to, but also where Rory Lancman probably wants to run) appears to be plurality Asian, but whites have a higher VAP?

Thanks, that makes more sense. I was getting up the post and missed the new 13. I wonder if 55% HVAP is considered high enough to elect a candidate of choice?

Charlie Rangel basically is a Hispanic candidate of choice. Kiss

Lol, so he cut into Long Island without screwing McCarthy in the process? Hilarious.
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