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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 51635 times)
traininthedistance
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« Reply #725 on: March 06, 2012, 12:42:10 pm »
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Obama McCain numbers:

27: 44.5%-53.9% Hochul
26: 63.5%-35.0% Higgins
25: 58.8%-39.9% Slaughter
24: 56.2%-42.0% Buerkhle
23: 49.5%-48.8% Reed
22: 49.1%-49.1% Hanna
21: 51.6%-46.8% Owens
20: 58.3%-39.8% Tonko
19: 52.8%-45.4% Gibson
17: 58.0%-41.2% Lowery
18: 52.1%-46.8% Hayworth
4: 55.3-43.9% McCarthy
1: 51.4-47.6 Bishop
2: 51.2-47.9 King
3: 53.5-45.6 Israel



I still suspect that King/Israel will get their districts redone.

Do we have numbers for 11 (Grimm)?
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« Reply #726 on: March 06, 2012, 12:49:57 pm »
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from my standpoint i dont mind this...a lot of competitive districts
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Miles
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« Reply #727 on: March 06, 2012, 01:15:55 pm »
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I don't like the special master's map because it screws Hochul.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #728 on: March 06, 2012, 01:27:12 pm »
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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/06/1071680/-NY-Special-Master-Map-statistics?via=sidebytagfeed

Full data.
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Torie
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« Reply #729 on: March 06, 2012, 01:28:49 pm »
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Yes, Turner is flushed. That is the bad news for the Pubs. The good news however on Long Island, is that while King is made more marginal, he should hang on, while it is not clear whether Israel can hang on with his CD having a lot of new territory. His CD is now close to dead even from a partisan baseline standpoint.  McCarthy's CD is now but weak lean or tilt Dem, and she may have trouble too. She is no dominatrix, and also has a lot of new territory, although not as much as Israel. All in all, the 4 Long Island CD's give me a warm fuzzy feeling from a partisan standpoint. They're all pretty marginal, and the obnoxious and irritating King (why do Pubs in Congress named King seem to annoy me so?) no longer has a free ride (but should be in better shape than either McCarthy or Israel), while Israel and McCarthy may have a struggle. Israel in particular is going to need to get more moderate in a hurry. Perfecto!

Upstate looks pretty good for the Pubs too. Hinchey is flushed, and Burkle should have a fighting chance to hang on, although I have not drawn anything but the 4 Long Island CD's. The map is not exact, but it is close enough for government work.  I drew it in a hurry. If Krazen's numbers are from a published source, my bad I guess to the extent I am off.

Hey Lewis, the Meeks CD butted into Nassau County in almost the exact way that I previously drew it. Tongue






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krazen1211
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« Reply #730 on: March 06, 2012, 01:58:20 pm »
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Ackerman stakes his claim on the 6th. I guess he didn't want Crowley getting there first.


Schumer won all 27 districts. Gillibrand won 26.
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Torie
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« Reply #731 on: March 06, 2012, 02:06:08 pm »
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I don't like the special master's map because it screws Hochul.

It was a Pub CD before, and Hochul just had a temporary lease on it due to special circumstances.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #732 on: March 06, 2012, 02:13:36 pm »
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That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?

I'm certain 8 is still AA majority, and 9 probably is as well.

There are three BVAP majority districts, but only one HVAP majority, with two plurality. I'm not sure why the Latinos would be happy with that.

I think you missed Rangel's district- there are two HVAP majority (Rangel and Serrano), and two HVAP plurality (Crowley and Velasquez).

Also of interest: NY-6 (which is presumably where Ackerman would move to, but also where Rory Lancman probably wants to run) appears to be plurality Asian, but whites have a higher VAP?

Thanks, that makes more sense. I was getting up the post and missed the new 13. I wonder if 55% HVAP is considered high enough to elect a candidate of choice?

Charlie Rangel basically is a Hispanic candidate of choice. Kiss

Lol, so he cut into Long Island without screwing McCarthy in the process? Hilarious.
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« Reply #733 on: March 06, 2012, 02:19:06 pm »
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I note he went with exactly what I at first thought inevitable in Brooklyn, before I noticed how unhispanic Velazquez' district was and that it was trending White and how ugly a map it forced to preserve it (the Nadler Hipster Earmuff as well as the Jewish Slashup).
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Miles
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« Reply #734 on: March 06, 2012, 02:19:17 pm »
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Owens may be saved again.
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« Reply #735 on: March 06, 2012, 02:30:12 pm »
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I note he went with exactly what I at first thought inevitable in Brooklyn, before I noticed how unhispanic Velazquez' district was and that it was trending White and how ugly a map it forced to preserve it (the Nadler Hipster Earmuff as well as the Jewish Slashup).
You got it backwards the Jewish slashup is why Velazquez's district goes in to southern Brooklyn.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #736 on: March 06, 2012, 02:33:08 pm »
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Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.
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« Reply #737 on: March 06, 2012, 02:38:01 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #738 on: March 06, 2012, 02:38:28 pm »
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I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)
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« Reply #739 on: March 06, 2012, 02:46:32 pm »
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Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.
except the district was slashed up 20 years ago to destroy the jewish vote.  Velazquez wasn't elected till the election after that.
  The reason that happened was because the jewish community voted against Solarz (he won the overall election) and all of a sudden in the next redistricting the seat was gone.

look at this map and you'll see what it used to look like
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_03_02_11_11_09_04.png
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Torie
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« Reply #740 on: March 06, 2012, 02:48:22 pm »
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I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #741 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:03 pm »
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I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ". Smiley
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« Reply #742 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:20 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #743 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:34 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #744 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:55 pm »
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Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

The Carl Kruger seat.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #745 on: March 06, 2012, 03:06:49 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  
If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)
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« Reply #746 on: March 06, 2012, 03:07:25 pm »
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I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ". Smiley

We will see if the Pubs target McCarthy I guess. I think she is baggable with the right well financed candidate myself. She's basically a nebbish.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #747 on: March 06, 2012, 03:07:46 pm »
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I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley

Nan Hayworth doesn't look safe to me either.  Favored, probably, but by no means safe.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #748 on: March 06, 2012, 03:09:54 pm »
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Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  
If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)



The Democrats have about 15 or so long term influential incumbents to yell at Sheldon Silver to cut a deal.

The GOP has 1. An important one of course.

I don't see any possible way this map stands.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #749 on: March 06, 2012, 03:15:41 pm »
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I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ". Smiley

We will see if the Pubs target McCarthy I guess. I think she is baggable with the right well financed candidate myself. She's basically a nebbish.
In a district of nebbishes.
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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