US House Redistricting: New York

[cinyc]

The Republican Assembly Minority had no objection to the court's proposed redistricting plan.  The inept Democratic Senate Minority wrote a letter to the judge stating they have no comment, as did the Democratic Assembly Majority.  The court warned the Assembly Majority that failure to object now might constitute a waiver to the three-judge panel ultimately responsible for redistricting.

The Republican Senate Majority objected to the orientation of the Long Island districts, carving up Turner's district, carving up the Jewish and Russian population of Southern Brooklyn, taking the northern counties away from Gibson's NY-19 and some minor technical changes to certain CD boundaries.

The Rose Intervenors complained that they weren't given enough time to respond and objected to some aspects of CDs 3, 4, 17, 21, 25, and 26.  The Hispanic groups generally approved of the plan but objected to certain Brooklyn neighborhoods being moved into Maloney's district.  Other intervenors had largely minor technical comments.

[Mr.Phips]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that?  

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

[krazen1211]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that?  

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

Probably not NY-04, but rather NY-27 (Hochul).

[Brittain33]

Republicans could pick up 4 districts if we see 2010 happen again and they line up great challengers and we don't count them losing Turner, and Dems could pick up multiple districts if we see 2006 happen again and we line up great challengers and we don't count our losing Hinchey and Hochul. The map makes many districts more competitive and given that the Republican Senate translates into a bench in a lot of D-held districts, Skelos would boast. However, given how miserably NY legislators seem to do when they run for Congress, he might be cautious. I'm not sure I see Caesar Trunzo unseating Steve Israel in 2012...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

[freepcrusher]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

The product of serving in a gerry in the 2000's is that she is less capable of performing so well in a not gerry'd seat. Think of Lungren's diminishing returns as an extreme example of a candidate who is less and less effective at wining voters. It does happen as you can see. And putting a candidate in a safe seat for 10 years and letting her adapt, then taking it form her, is another way of producing such a transformation of candidate quality.

[freepcrusher]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

The product of serving in a gerry in the 2000's is that she is less capable of performing so well in a not gerry'd seat. Think of Lungren's diminishing returns as an extreme example of a candidate who is less and less effective at wining voters. It does happen as you can see. And putting a candidate in a safe seat for 10 years and letting her adapt, then taking it form her, is another way of producing such a transformation of candidate quality.

I don't know if Lungren is a good example. Maybe Dick Lehman who represented a district that connected the inner city areas from Stockton and Fresno via the Sierras in the 80s would be a better example.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

The product of serving in a gerry in the 2000's is that she is less capable of performing so well in a not gerry'd seat. Think of Lungren's diminishing returns as an extreme example of a candidate who is less and less effective at wining voters. It does happen as you can see. And putting a candidate in a safe seat for 10 years and letting her adapt, then taking it form her, is another way of producing such a transformation of candidate quality.

I don't know if Lungren is a good example. Maybe Dick Lehman who represented a district that connected the inner city areas from Stockton and Fresno via the Sierras in the 80s would be a better example.

People are more apt to know a current congressman then someone from the 1980's.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Slaughter's seat in that map is around 59% Obama. How many 59% Obama seats are held by Republicans? The only one I can think of is that one in Illinois that was barely held in 2010 against a horrible twice loser candidate and is in Illinois so Obama's margin is obviously inflated.

[cinyc]

Slaughter's seat in that map is around 59% Obama. How many 59% Obama seats are held by Republicans? The only one I can think of is that one in Illinois that was barely held in 2010 against a horrible twice loser candidate and is in Illinois so Obama's margin is obviously inflated.

Slaughter is the one who doesn't like her new district for whatever reason.  Perhaps she's worried about representing a district that's over 60% new territory.  That's a recipe to get primaried down the road.  (There's going to be virtually no time in between the time these maps are adopted and the petition period this cycle.)  And she's going from a very safe district to one that is a little more marginal, albeit safe most cycles.

[krazen1211]

Slaughter's seat in that map is around 59% Obama. How many 59% Obama seats are held by Republicans? The only one I can think of is that one in Illinois that was barely held in 2010 against a horrible twice loser candidate and is in Illinois so Obama's margin is obviously inflated.

Gerlach and Reichert hold comparable districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Those are around 56-57% Obama.

[Smash255]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Um, the GOP holds all nine state Senate seats in suburban Long Island. The new 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are more Republican than suburban Long Island as a whole. Tell us again how a Republican can't win in those districts?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Considering the margin, any such infighting was likely a critical factor.

Between Israel's skill as a candidate and the amount of changes made, they did enough to put it beyond reach. Four was within reach with the right candidate in the right year because of McCarthy.

I don't really concern myself with King's political future.

[Smash255]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Um, the GOP holds all nine state Senate seats in suburban Long Island. The new 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are more Republican than suburban Long Island as a whole. Tell us again how a Republican can't win in those districts?

First off State Senate Seats and Congressional districts have a very different dynamic,  the GOP is more electable on the local level than nationally.  The fact the GOP drew all of those districts last time does help quite a bit.  None of those districts are strongly GOP, but drawn in ways with the state dynamics it can stay GOP leaning for the most part.  Not to mention the biggie of Incumbency, most of the Senators on LI have been in those seats for much of my lifetime (and I'm in my late 20's)


Anyway back to the Congressional races, if they can't knock off Bishop in the heavily GOP year  of 2010 with someone who outspent him by $1.5 million, I don't see them being able to knock him off.  Now if Bishop decides to retire it will be competitive, (considering he is 61 I don't see that happening soon), but outside of that its going to be very difficult for the GOP to peal it off.

Israel is just way too entrenched (even with getting a bunch of new territory) for the GOP to knock him off under any circumstances.  His name was thrown around for Senate when Clinton's seat opened up, but unless that happens again he is going nowhere (he is 53).  Israel is the chair of the DCCC.  Not to mention the GOP has no bench at all in the district.  The GOP is very strong in the Town of Oyster Bay, but virtually all of it is in the southern half of the down (King's portion), and have absolutely nothing in the Town of Huntington and North Hempstead.

I never said they wouldn't hold the new 2nd (current 3rd, King's district) hell I live here.  The GOP does have a solid bench in the district, so even if he retires I think the GOP should be in good shape of holding it (unless it happens in a heavy Dem year).  The Dems have a decent based (most of which is in Babylon), but with Bellone just winning the Suffolk Co Exec job that takes the strongest one out of the mix.

[Smash255]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Considering the margin, any such infighting was likely a critical factor.

Between Israel's skill as a candidate and the amount of changes made, they did enough to put it beyond reach. Four was within reach with the right candidate in the right year because of McCarthy.

I don't really concern myself with King's political future.

I agree with you on Israel.  The incumbent protection map (which is what the last redistricting basically was) helped both Israel and King, but may have even had more impact on King.

As far as the 4th, it never really was within reach.  The district was always Democratic enough it would have been hard for the GOP to do anything there.  The GOP bench there was pretty much wiped out with the collapse of the Nassau GOP machine in the late 90's/ early 2000's.  The machine is still very strong in the Town of Hempstead, but Murray (The Town Supervisor) lives in Levittown (King).  Not to mention the recent demographic changes.   Basically the only possibility the GOP could have had is if 2002 was a stronger GOP year and the party didn't collapse 10-12 years ago and even that would have been a huge stretch.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The 4th even in the new form strikes me as a fool's gold type of seat, it's obviously not a seat where there is a 0% or even 1% chance of ever electing a Republican, but drawing up those circumstances is really difficult and kind of contrived. Kind of like the Republicans winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts, just because it's obviously possible for a charismatic hyped up candidate to win a special election during a wave of backlash against a terrible opponent running a terrible campaign there doesn't mean you can expect it to happen. It certainly takes more than the incumbent being kind of stupid, especially when she's stupid about an issue that most people in the district agree with her on, even if it's not high on their priority list, McCarthy may not be an effective gun control advocate but the Republicans aren't going to win a Long Island seat on a gun rights campaign. Slaughter even moreso.

Besides in either case, who is going to run against beat either one? Obviously someone quite a few notches above "generic Republican" would be needed to make the race even on the radar.

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

[Brittain33]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

[muon2]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

The alternative to Inwood is to cross into Brooklyn as I did on my map. Even then I split the Rockaways to get the needed 50%.

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

The alternative to Inwood is to cross into Brooklyn as I did on my map. Even then I split the Rockaways to get the needed 50%.

you need to go into Nassau around Elmont (but that district crosses the border into different areas one of which is completely unnecessary to get a black majority district) in which case my original question is still true.
Isn't the whole official purpose of this map to unite communities of interest.

If Inwood is united with Queens there's zero excuse for not uniting Far Rockway with the 5 Towns.

[krazen1211]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views. That said, Slaughter is interesting mostly because her comments regarding Ithaca are very funny!

Skelos should be pushing Torie's solution to earmuff into Syracuse.

[minionofmidas]

Please, people. 50% on DRA is not 50%. That's 53%. Get.that.into.your.heads.

What you probably cannot do is get to actual 50% without crossing into Nassau while also uniting Rockaway, drawing a clear northern line rather than cherrypicking precincts down to the very last Black resident, and giving Woodhaven to Velazquez.

As for Inwood, it was probably done because he felt it a better fit or something. And/or enabled cleaner lines for Israel in Queens and for the McCarthy/Israel line.