US House Redistricting: New York

[nclib]

I'm surprised most Dems here seem to be a bit disappointed. I'm not too worried about the LI Dems and every upstate freshman GOPer's CD moves in our direction except Hanna (the most moderate). I am disappointed about Ackerman and Hinchey retiring, but that won't affect partisan balance.

BTW, wondering based on NY Jew's posts--what would a packed Jewish GOP CD look like, and a packed Jewish Dem CD?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I think the issue is more that nothing is done to shore up Hochul, and if you consider Turner's seat a Dem one currently Republican by a fluke it's two Dem seats eliminated. Sure the inverse is true of Hochul but with her just losing that's not quite a fair trade. And the only seat that becomes so Dem in a neutral environment it's guaranteed to flip is Buerkle's, which probably would've happened anyway. Losing Hochul, Buerkle, Hinchey and Turner may be a net zero but it's not exactly "fair" if you look at the details.

The problem with a "packed Jewish Dem CD" is that the Jews don't segregate like the races do except the Hasids NY Jew is so obsessed with, for example the Manhattan part of Nadler's seat certainly has a lot of Jews but many non-Jews as well. And the problem with the packed Jewish GOP seat NY Jew desires so much is the makeup depends primarily on who else you put there, it's quite easy to combine all the Hasidic areas and put them in a majority black seat. Nadler's seat is actually the closest thing to a "Jewish seat" that can be drawn.

[Smash255]

I think the issue is more that nothing is done to shore up Hochul, and if you consider Turner's seat a Dem one currently Republican by a fluke it's two Dem seats eliminated. Sure the inverse is true of Hochul but with her just losing that's not quite a fair trade. And the only seat that becomes so Dem in a neutral environment it's guaranteed to flip is Buerkle's, which probably would've happened anyway. Losing Hochul, Buerkle, Hinchey and Turner may be a net zero but it's not exactly "fair" if you look at the details.

The problem with a "packed Jewish Dem CD" is that the Jews don't segregate like the races do except the Hasids NY Jew is so obsessed with, for example the Manhattan part of Nadler's seat certainly has a lot of Jews but many non-Jews as well. And the problem with the packed Jewish GOP seat NY Jew desires so much is the makeup depends primarily on who else you put there, it's quite easy to combine all the Hasidic areas and put them in a majority black seat. Nadler's seat is actually the closest thing to a "Jewish seat" that can be drawn.

You perhaps can draw something that starts in the Nassau portion of Israel's current seat with a narrow strip connecting it to much of the Nassau portion of Ackerman's current seat (minus Manhasset and Plandome) and then push it into the Forrest Hills section of Queens.

[krazen1211]

I'm surprised most Dems here seem to be a bit disappointed. I'm not too worried about the LI Dems and every upstate freshman GOPer's CD moves in our direction except Hanna (the most moderate). I am disappointed about Ackerman and Hinchey retiring, but that won't affect partisan balance.

BTW, wondering based on NY Jew's posts--what would a packed Jewish GOP CD look like, and a packed Jewish Dem CD?

http://www.politicker.com/2012/03/05/orthodox-jewish-group-pushes-court-for-new-congrressional-district/

[ag]

Well, this won't be a majority Jewish district, would it be? And, of course, the Jewish community there would be divided between the Orthodox/Hassidic and pork-and-cheese-eating Russian: calling this a "community of interest", to the exclusion of the secular Jews (other than recent ex-Soviet migrants), is a definite stretch - they seem to believe they have more in common w/ Italian Catholics than w/ most American Jews. A funny notion of a "racial" group it is )

[NY Jew]

Well, this won't be a majority Jewish district, would it be? And, of course, the Jewish community there would be divided between the Orthodox/Hassidic and pork-and-cheese-eating Russian: calling this a "community of interest", to the exclusion of the secular Jews (other than recent ex-Soviet migrants), is a definite stretch - they seem to believe they have more in common w/ Italian Catholics than w/ most American Jews. A funny notion of a "racial" group it is )

this very likely would be (see page 55) the Orthodox community grew tremendously since then

http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/C-NY-New_York-2002-Geographic_Profile_Report.pdf

[ag]

I wouldn't be that sure. Just by plugging in the South Brooklyn numbers on that map I got about 360,000 - but big chunks of that are well outside of the proposed district (they are just too spread). Also, of course, this includes both the Orthodox and the Russians (big chunk of whom are not even halakhikally Jewish, and most of whom have no love lost for the Orthodox) and the others, raising the issue of existence of a "community of interest". And while the Orthodox might be growing, is the entire growth in Brooklyn and does it compensate for the emigration of  all sorts of Jews to the suburbs? Though, perhaps, I'd grant you that it should be possible to gerrymander a Jewish majority district in Brooklyn - and do so even without the Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights folk that you've come to consider goyim because they don't vote the way you like ) But you'd, probably, have to be quite a bit more ingenious about the boundaries, to get rid of the gentiles and the "wrong" Jews.

[ag]

BTW, I got a great idea for a Jewish district in Brooklyn :)) Take Flatbush, Midwood, Borough Park and even Crown Heights - you can't say we are splitting the Orthodox, can you? Williamsburg's missing - but that's a bit off geographically, hard to get w/ the rest without ugly gerrymanders. Add Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights - these are Jews, as much or more so than the bacon-on-matzo Russians. If you are creative, this would not be much less Jewish, if at all so, than the South Brooklyn version. Pack the rest w/ reliably democratic minority areas and bingo - a reliably Dem district with an Orthodox Jewish pack at its core ) Should be doable ))

[they don't love you like i love you]

I mentioned that earlier. It's quite easy to keep all the Orthodox areas together and put them in a majority black district.

[they don't love you like i love you]

While we're inventing "communities of interest" that are supposedly screwed over by the map, how about the huge white liberal population in Brooklyn? Right now they are basically all in seats that are either black, Hispanic, or represented by someone in Manhattan (Nadler). I suppose you could've made a case for Weiner while he was in office but the part of Brooklyn in his district wasn't the liberal one. And unlike the Hasids they have enough population for their own district.

[NY Jew]

BTW, I got a great idea for a Jewish district in Brooklyn :)) Take Flatbush, Midwood, Borough Park and even Crown Heights - you can't say we are splitting the Orthodox, can you? Williamsburg's missing - but that's a bit off geographically, hard to get w/ the rest without ugly gerrymanders. Add Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights - these are Jews, as much or more so than the bacon-on-matzo Russians. If you are creative, this would not be much less Jewish, if at all so, than the South Brooklyn version. Pack the rest w/ reliably democratic minority areas and bingo - a reliably Dem district with an Orthodox Jewish pack at its core ) Should be doable ))

that would not come close to half  in order to get to Crown Heights (all bunched up) for example you would have to take in way to many blacks which would never work with the voting rights act and would never take in enough jews to be worth it.  (Williamsburg would be possible if you use the east river)

[they don't love you like i love you]

No there would be no VRA violation since the preferred candidate of the black community would clearly win that district.

[NY Jew]

I wouldn't be that sure. Just by plugging in the South Brooklyn numbers on that map I got about 360,000 - but big chunks of that are well outside of the proposed district (they are just too spread). Also, of course, this includes both the Orthodox and the Russians (big chunk of whom are not even halakhikally Jewish, and most of whom have no love lost for the Orthodox) and the others, raising the issue of existence of a "community of interest". And while the Orthodox might be growing, is the entire growth in Brooklyn and does it compensate for the emigration of  all sorts of Jews to the suburbs? Though, perhaps, I'd grant you that it should be possible to gerrymander a Jewish majority district in Brooklyn - and do so even without the Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights folk that you've come to consider goyim because they don't vote the way you like ) But you'd, probably, have to be quite a bit more ingenious about the boundaries, to get rid of the gentiles and the "wrong" Jews.

but many of those areas way out of the jewish district have very few jews
for example I'm sure zip codes 11236 (Canarsie) 16,946 whites and 11239 (Starett City) 5,546 whites according to the 2000 census really effect the 42,900 jews in zip codes 11234 + 11236 + 11239 tremendously.

get it through your head Orthodox jews and Russian Jews live in ethnic enclaves I doubt there are any normal size blocks where non Orthodox or Russian Jews are the majority on the block.
for example the only unsupergerrymandered way to make this more Jewish would be to take in more of Bensonhurst.  Taking in Brooklyn Heights will never make this even close to the 50% number

[NY Jew]

No there would be no VRA violation since the preferred candidate of the black community would clearly win that district.

anti semite I wasn't responding to you the areas he included would make the area much to white to pass muster with the voting rights act (assuming he knows the first thing about where the Orthodox community lives)

[Padfoot]

Sorry if I missed it in an earlier post, but what are the PVIs for final court map?  Also, what is the generally accepted net loss/gain for each party with that map?

[muon2]

Sorry if I missed it in an earlier post, but what are the PVIs for final court map?  Also, what is the generally accepted net loss/gain for each party with that map?

Here's where I calculated the 2008 results, and where Torie turned it into PVIs based on that election alone.

[ag]

BTW, I got a great idea for a Jewish district in Brooklyn :)) Take Flatbush, Midwood, Borough Park and even Crown Heights - you can't say we are splitting the Orthodox, can you? Williamsburg's missing - but that's a bit off geographically, hard to get w/ the rest without ugly gerrymanders. Add Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights - these are Jews, as much or more so than the bacon-on-matzo Russians. If you are creative, this would not be much less Jewish, if at all so, than the South Brooklyn version. Pack the rest w/ reliably democratic minority areas and bingo - a reliably Dem district with an Orthodox Jewish pack at its core ) Should be doable ))

that would not come close to half  in order to get to Crown Heights (all bunched up) for example you would have to take in way to many blacks which would never work with the voting rights act and would never take in enough jews to be worth it.  (Williamsburg would be possible if you use the east river)

There is no law that says ALL blacks should be in majority black districts )) Especially, if we are alleging that we are doing this to avoid disenfranchizing another minority )) Arguably, the district I propose would concentrate more ORTHODOX Jews than the South Brooklyn district - we are uniting a community of interest. And it is not that easy to argue that the Russian Jews (many of them not even Jewish from the Orthodox standpoing) belong to the same community of interest - their interest in most areas are quite diametrically opposed to those of the Orthodox. That they happen to be part of the same emerging pro-Republican coalition is an accident, based, primarily, on vehement racism, which is de rigueur inside the Russian community.

[NY Jew]

BTW, I got a great idea for a Jewish district in Brooklyn :)) Take Flatbush, Midwood, Borough Park and even Crown Heights - you can't say we are splitting the Orthodox, can you? Williamsburg's missing - but that's a bit off geographically, hard to get w/ the rest without ugly gerrymanders. Add Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights - these are Jews, as much or more so than the bacon-on-matzo Russians. If you are creative, this would not be much less Jewish, if at all so, than the South Brooklyn version. Pack the rest w/ reliably democratic minority areas and bingo - a reliably Dem district with an Orthodox Jewish pack at its core ) Should be doable ))

that would not come close to half  in order to get to Crown Heights (all bunched up) for example you would have to take in way to many blacks which would never work with the voting rights act and would never take in enough jews to be worth it.  (Williamsburg would be possible if you use the east river)

There is no law that says ALL blacks should be in majority black districts )) Especially, if we are alleging that we are doing this to avoid disenfranchizing another minority ))

that argument didn't seem to work for jews before.
In addition the only way possible to make a compact majority Jewish district would be to include Brighton Beach and Manhattan Beach.  If you don't realize that it's probably because you have no clue where jews live in NY. 

[ag]

BTW, I got a great idea for a Jewish district in Brooklyn :)) Take Flatbush, Midwood, Borough Park and even Crown Heights - you can't say we are splitting the Orthodox, can you? Williamsburg's missing - but that's a bit off geographically, hard to get w/ the rest without ugly gerrymanders. Add Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights - these are Jews, as much or more so than the bacon-on-matzo Russians. If you are creative, this would not be much less Jewish, if at all so, than the South Brooklyn version. Pack the rest w/ reliably democratic minority areas and bingo - a reliably Dem district with an Orthodox Jewish pack at its core ) Should be doable ))

that would not come close to half  in order to get to Crown Heights (all bunched up) for example you would have to take in way to many blacks which would never work with the voting rights act and would never take in enough jews to be worth it.  (Williamsburg would be possible if you use the east river)

There is no law that says ALL blacks should be in majority black districts )) Especially, if we are alleging that we are doing this to avoid disenfranchizing another minority ))

that argument didn't seem to work for jews before.
In addition the only way possible to make a compact majority Jewish district would be to include Brighton Beach and Manhattan Beach.  If you don't realize that it's probably because you have no clue where jews live in NY. 

I happen to be a Russian Jew who spent 9 years in greater New York (admittedly, in the 1990s). Should I tell you where exactly the groceries where I used to buy my bacon are, or will you just believe me? ))

My argument is subtly different ) Anybody, who argues for a Jewish majority district on these grounds would have to be using definition of the Jews that goes against the definition used by the ultra- (and not very ultra) Orthodox. Many of the "Russians" are only Jewish by descent on the male line and/or converted to other faiths. Those who are technically Jewish still, mostly, follow the Jewish law mostly in its breach. Finding a community of interest between them and the Orthodox presents a stretch - more of a stretch, in fact, than finding a community of interest between the Orthodox and the Park Slope or Upper West Side guys. Yes, of course, the Russians and the Orthodox happen to be more of Republican types - but Republican Jews is, most definitely, a not very protectable community ))

The South Brooklyn district removes big chunks of the Orthodox community (Crown Heights and Willamsburg) - so, it fails in its stated objective of uniting a well-defined community of interest. A Central/North Brooklyn district would gather more of the ultra-Orthodox Jews. Of course, it would not take in the Russian Jews - but that's a very distinct community, with its own interests. And it would be quite hard for the Orthodox lawyers to argue otherwise - without abandoning the Halakha, at least )

[ag]

BTW, the Jewish sector of the Crown Heights could be incorporated with relatively few blacks - via a salient from Park Slope through the Prospect Park. Not a big deal.

[ag]

Anyway, it is not hard to draw a district that would include the entire Borough Park, Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, Midwood Jewish parts of Williamsburg, Crown Heights, Flatbush, etc. - I even got the entire Gravesend and half the Homecrest in (Ocean Parkway is in all the way through to the Belt Parkway) that would be 66.5% Obama (72.1% Dem on average). It's only 9% black - no concern there. 12.9% Hispanic and 11.3% Asian - but you can't draw a Hispanic district from those parts anyway. There is still a lot of stuff I've included for no good reason to pad the Dem margin (such as Red Hook) that could be removed to replace w/ Jewish neighborhoods without making it less than 60% Obama. Of course, once you insist on including Brighton and Manhattan Beach, it would change - but why include those atheist ex-Commies )?

[Torie]

Pity you guys picked up on the Orthodox Jewish submission. I was going to put up a poll, with all the usual suspects listed, from myself to BRTD to Muon2 to Sbane to NY Jew to Lewis to Brittain33 and so on, and ask who do you think would like the map best. But now the answer has been given away.

Here is their entire map. I got the drf file from the chap who drafted it (except for the 4 northern CD's in the Bronx and Westchester, which a Catholic friend of his drew, because of the press of time). The map has a few "problems," alas, some fixable, but the bleaching out of the Crowley CD might raise a retrogression issue. Hewing to municipal/village lines was not job one either. I quite admire the chutzpah in merging the Mahoney and Nadler CD's, as the white CD to go, in exchange for creating the "Jewish" one in Brooklyn.

I spoke to the map drawer about 3 times on the phone for a couple of hours. I initiated it because his submission had problems, and I wanted to help him fix them, if possible, even though the filing deadline had passed. By the last conversation, the federal appellate court had rejected his submission, and he want to file a petition to SCOTUS, based on ignoring communities of interest for white people and so forth, particularly Jews, who are the most victimized by hate crimes. It took some time to persuade him that the odds of SCOTUS taking the case were effectively zero.

I must say one party would like this map a whole lot better than the other party. The other party if the appellate court accepted this after making some necessary adjustments, like equalizing population, would have just gone bonkers. The Israel district goes Pub, and Lowey's is down to about Dem +2% in  PVI. (I am not sure, because I had to draw the 4 CD's the Catholic guy drew myself, and the PDF screen shots did not show the Lowey CD's northern perimeter.)  The Lowey CD needs to go farther out anyway, because overall the NYC area CD's about about 50,000-75,000 or something short of population overall.

Oh by the way, the map drawer says he spoke to the Pub Senate majority leader Skelos, and tried to persuade him to leave two Jewish state senate CD's in Brooklyn Queens somewhere alone because in another couple of years both would fall to the Pubs. Skelos said he needed another CD now, rather than two later, so he merged them to get one more sufficiently Pub to flip now. I guess the discount rate on future Pub seats, but not right now, was close to 50% per year of something.

The guy was fascinating to talk to. He knows the NYC streets like the back of his hand, and who is doing what to whom. I'm sure NY Jew would enjoy talking to him. He agreed that gay marriage did indeed tank Welperin, allowing Turner to win.

[muon2]

Pity you guys picked up on the Orthodox Jewish submission. I was going to put up a poll, with all the usual suspects listed, from myself to BRTD to Muon2 to Sbane to NY Jew to Lewis to Brittain33 and so on, and ask who do you think would like the map best. But now the answer has been given away.

Here is their entire map. I got the drf file from the chap who drafted it (except for the 4 northern CD's in the Bronx and Westchester, which a Catholic friend of his drew, because of the press of time). The map has a few "problems," alas, some fixable, but the bleaching out of the Crowley CD might raise a retrogression issue. Hewing to municipal/village lines was not job one either. I quite admire the chutzpah in merging the Mahoney and Nadler CD's, as the white CD to go, in exchange for creating the "Jewish" one in Brooklyn.

I spoke to the map drawer about 3 times on the phone for a couple of hours. I initiated it because his submission had problems, and I wanted to help him fix them, if possible, even though the filing deadline had passed. By the last conversation, the federal appellate court had rejected his submission, and he want to file a petition to SCOTUS, based on ignoring communities of interest for white people and so forth, particularly Jews, who are the most victimized by hate crimes. It took some time to persuade him that the odds of SCOTUS taking the case were effectively zero.

I must say one party would like this map a whole lot better than the other party. The other party if the appellate court accepted this after making some necessary adjustments, like equalizing population, would have just gone bonkers. The Israel district goes Pub, and Lowey's is down to about Dem +2% in  PVI. (I am not sure, because I had to draw the 4 CD's the Catholic guy drew myself, and the PDF screen shots did not show the Lowey CD's northern perimeter.)  The Lowey CD needs to go farther out anyway, because overall the NYC area CD's about about 50,000-75,000 or something short of population overall.

Oh by the way, the map drawer says he spoke to the Pub Senate majority leader Skelos, and tried to persuade him to leave two Jewish state senate CD's in Brooklyn Queens somewhere alone because in another couple of years both would fall to the Pubs. Skelos said he needed another CD now, rather than two later, so he merged them to get one more sufficiently Pub to flip now. I guess the discount rate on future Pub seats, but not right now, was close to 50% per year of something.

The guy was fascinating to talk to. He knows the NYC streets like the back of his hand, and who is doing what to whom. I'm sure NY Jew would enjoy talking to him. He agreed that gay marriage did indeed tank Welperin, allowing Turner to win.

Very interesting. I'm also fascinated as to its similarity to the map I tried to submit to the court early in March, but missed the deadline. In Brooklyn one would only have to swap Bay Ridge for Gravesend and Coney Island to essentially have our maps match.

Try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. I'm skeptical that you can get it over 50%, especially if we're using VAP, but I'd definitely like to see.

When I tried to eyeball a compact South Brooklyn CD earlier, I was using DRA so it wasn't clear how much of 'white' was Jewish, and also I ended up having to include more Democratic parts of Brooklyn in Grimm's district such that it actually shifts several points Democratic, so it seems likely to me that were you to successfully create the district that you're talking about we'd still end up with only the one Republican CD in the city most years (possibly zero if some hawkish, religiously conservative Jewish Democrat got elected from the hypothetical district that we are discussing).

I don't know how to upload maps on this website.
the key is to move Grimm out of Brooklyn and towards the Rockways
Grimm would be +2
and the New Jewish district would be +9

and in regards to weather or not the there was a Democrat or a Republican though I would prefer a Republican I would vote for someone like Noach Dear, or Dov Hikind way before I would vote for most NY state Republicans.

If you are looking for the Orthodox precincts in DRA, use the option to color by election. They will show up as strongly McCain compared to everything else. Though I was motivated by geography and the black-majority districts, I suspect it would look similar to CD 8 in my map above (reposted here).

[Torie]

How in the world did you plan to sell it, Muon2?  Or did you not do the Westchester and Long Island gerrymanders?  What was your Hispanic percentage for the Crowley CD?

[ag]

<Adopting an offended Jewish posture> Well, if this map is not designed to SPLIT the Orthodox Jewish vote accross several district, what is it designed to do? Russians ain't Orthodox!