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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 48284 times)
danny
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« Reply #975 on: March 21, 2012, 06:27:08 am »
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Might be more trouble w/ other Orthodox, though, (do they still speak much Yiddish in Lithuanian yeshivas? I don't know)

I checked and the best I came up with were http://www.mla.org/map_data_results&state_id=34&place_id=38580&cty_id=(home to the Beth Medrash Govoha.
So that would probably be an English majority with significant Yiddish and Hebrew minorities amongst the Litvishers. Does that count as a linguistic minority?
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« Reply #976 on: March 21, 2012, 08:10:16 am »

Might be more trouble w/ other Orthodox, though, (do they still speak much Yiddish in Lithuanian yeshivas? I don't know)

I checked and the best I came up with were http://www.mla.org/map_data_results&state_id=34&place_id=38580&cty_id=(home to the Beth Medrash Govoha.
So that would probably be an English majority with significant Yiddish and Hebrew minorities amongst the Litvishers. Does that count as a linguistic minority?

According to the site there are less than 200K Yiddish and Hebrew speakers throughout NY. They would not reach the 50% of a CD required for VRA section 2 status, assuming they were a recognized minority.

There are certainly enough for legislative districts, however. If they are shown to vote as a bloc differently than the rest of the population in their area, then they would meet the Gingles test. That still leaves the question as to whether they could be recognized as such. It's perhaps useful to note that Hispanics as a language minority were not in the original VRA but were added later.
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« Reply #977 on: March 21, 2012, 08:16:32 am »
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Claiming they speak Hebrew at home won't cut it for some of the Hassidim: they make a point not to Smiley) It's loshn koydesh vs. mama loshn, and you don't use the former to talk about chickens.

But then, if Scottish Gaelic is not a European language by Australian law, what would prevent Yiddish from not being a European language by American law? For that matter, there are almost no speakers left in Europe Smiley)
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« Reply #978 on: March 21, 2012, 09:51:21 am »
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Man, Hasids love No True Scotsman more than any other group.
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« Reply #979 on: March 21, 2012, 12:04:51 pm »
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If Yiddish is a problem because it originated in Europe, than wouldn't Spanish have the same problem?
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« Reply #980 on: March 21, 2012, 01:28:09 pm »
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5 districts? NY Jew, have you seen what they did to Austin?

A better example is Will County, Illinois, which has the distinction of being chopped into 6 districts. I think that might be a record!
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« Reply #981 on: March 21, 2012, 01:28:31 pm »
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During what period was that district drawn like that?
From 1792 to 1796 there was a Richmond-Westchester district (The Bronx was not set off until much later), but in mid-decade redistricting, Richmond was added back to the Long Island district.

Then 1822-1840 Kings, Richmond, and Rockland (New York City only included Manhattan)

Then Richmond was with Queens and Suffolk (Nassau wasn't created until later).

It was in 1892 that Richmond started being placed with Manhattan.  In the 1950s it was moved to Brooklyn.  The 1960s district was Richmond and SE Brooklyn, and in the 1970s back to Manhattan.
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« Reply #982 on: March 21, 2012, 06:44:14 pm »
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Anyway, it is not hard to draw a district that would include the entire Borough Park, Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, Midwood Jewish parts of Williamsburg, Crown Heights, Flatbush, etc. - I even got the entire Gravesend and half the Homecrest in (Ocean Parkway is in all the way through to the Belt Parkway) that would be 66.5% Obama (72.1% Dem on average). It's only 9% black - no concern there. 12.9% Hispanic and 11.3% Asian - but you can't draw a Hispanic district from those parts anyway. There is still a lot of stuff I've included for no good reason to pad the Dem margin (such as Red Hook) that could be removed to replace w/ Jewish neighborhoods without making it less than 60% Obama. Of course, once you insist on including Brighton and Manhattan Beach, it would change - but why include those atheist ex-Commies Smiley)?
there are way more Orthodox shuls in Brighton Beach then in Park Slope
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« Reply #983 on: March 21, 2012, 06:52:12 pm »
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One quick point I would like to make here in the Orthodox Jewish seat argument is that if such a seat is drawn to grant representation specifically to the Orthodox Jewish minority is that for such a seat to do just that, the main premise would be that the seat needs to be drawn so that the Orthodox community is able to elect the representative of their choice. It does not need to be majority Orthodox Jewish. We often use this standard with other minority groups throughout the country in redistricting. Note, I am not arguing that the Orthodox Jewish community is large enough that representation should be legally required, but if it is, the district needs to be drawn so that other groups will not drown out the Orthodox vote. This means that the other groups cannot be too heavily partisan against the Orthodox prefered candidate (which right now seems to be Turner).

Do you really think that the Orthodox Jews would elect (Catholic) Turner if it were up to them? He'd loose a primary in any Orthodox-majority district before you can say "Jesus".

Partisan arguments can't be a problem: the courts have repeatedly ruled that it's ok to gerrymander for partisan ends. The problem is dilution of a racial/ethnic/other minority group for the purposes of preventing it from electing the candidate of their choice. It is hard to see how a district that maximizes the concentration of the target group (Orthodox Jews) could be wrong here. It is also hard to see how reducing the proportion of that group in the district (as would be the case in the South Brooklyn district as compared w/ the North-Central Brooklyn district) could help the Orthodox Jews elect the candidate of their choice that would not also be supported by some other major group. Of course, it is simply impossible to get a district in Brooklyn where Orthodox Jews would be able to elect candidate of their choice without them happening to coincide with some other, not Orthodox community - there are simply not enough of them (especially, if we just look at the voting age population).

That's why, any proposed "Orthodox Jewish" district would have to rely at least as strongly on other, non-Orthodox, or even non-Jewish groups to do the trick - the Russians, the Irish, the Italians or whatever. But at that point it becomes a matter of coalition building, not of electing a candidate of the Orthodox Jewish choice. In as much as "candidate of choice" seems to be an euthemism for "one of their own", this is going to fail outright - a proper Hasid won't get elected in such a district (many Russians would, probably, rather vote Dem, as would many of the other elements of this "Republican coalition"). Turner is certainly not one of them, and would not have been their choice if they could decide on their own.

Hence the difficulty with defining the "protected group". The Orthodox Jews simply are not numerous or concentrated enough for a district (unless one finds a way of linking Borough Park and Rockland county in one district Smiley) ). Protecting Jews as such - a group that less than 4 years ago voted, what, 70% for Obama - would not seem to require drawing a Republican district; if anything, that would prevent the Jews at large from electing representatives of their choice. So NY Jew and his kind have invented a new "protected group": Republican Jews - which includes the Orthodox and the Russians (especially the first-generation immigrants among those), but excludes the bulk of the Jews in Manhattan, Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, etc. For their purposes Bob Turner is a member of this group, while Woody Allen isn't. Fine by me - but they'd have to pursuade Justices Breyer, Ginsburg and Kagan Smiley)))
1 this was a great map I would have moved more of Bensenhurst into it. besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.
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« Reply #984 on: March 21, 2012, 07:00:34 pm »
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5 districts? NY Jew, have you seen what they did to Austin?

A better example is Will County, Illinois, which has the distinction of being chopped into 6 districts. I think that might be a record!
Gonna need a lot more chopping than that to keep up with California's huge counties. Of course thats not so much gerrymandering as it is LA county having a ton of people.
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« Reply #985 on: March 21, 2012, 07:06:46 pm »
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edit: Ah heck, dp
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« Reply #986 on: March 21, 2012, 07:19:58 pm »
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But Sephardim are not so big in Brooklyn (though, of course, present), so, I guess, it is fine. So, the ultimate irony: the despised "jargon" would, probably, serve best as the identifier for the group to be protected Smiley)))

you do know that south of Jewish Flatbush is mostly Syrian.
 Brooklyn probably has more sefradiem then any other place outside of Israel
Syrian shuls in  Brooklyn (there are other sefardi groups) according to wikapedia (I think this missed a few)

    * Ahaba Ve Ahva, at 1744 Ocean Parkway between Kings Highway and Quentin Road, for Egyptian Jews. - Rabbi Shimon Alouf (Rosh Yeshiba of the Sephardic Rabbinical College).
    * Ahaba Ve Ahva Congregation and Yeshiva, at 2001 East 7th Street.
    * Ahi Ezer Congregation, at 1885 Ocean Parkway. The synagogue generally serves the Damascus or (Shami) Syrian community. - Rabbi Shaul Maslaton
    * Ahi Ezer Torah Center, at 1950 East 7th Street.
    * Ahi Ezer Yeshiva, a synagogue housed on the ground floor of the Ahi Ezer Elementary School, at 2433 Ocean Parkway. Originally built as an extension for Damascus (Shami) Jews, it currently has a mostly Egyptian attendance. - Rabbi Hanania Elbaz
    * Ateret Torah, at 901 Quentin Road, for Haredim. - Rabbi Yosef Harari Raful
    * Avenue O Synagogue or Ohel Yeshua VeSarah, at 808 Avenue O. - Rabbi Shemuel Beyda
    * Avenue U Synagogue, at 400 Avenue U.
    * Congregation Beth El, at 2181 East 3rd Street between Avenue U and Avenue V.
    * Bet Shaul U'Miriam, at 2208 Avenue S (Madison Neighborhood). - Rabbi David Cohen
    * Beth Torah, at 1061 Ocean Parkway (Midwood Neighborhood), founded by Albert Shalom. - Rabbi Yehuda A. Azancot
    * Bet Yaakob, now situated in the former Ahaba Ve Ahva synagogue, at 1801 Ocean Parkway. - Rabbi Eli Mansour
    * Beth Yosef, also known as Beth Levy, at 2108 Ocean Parkway (Gravesend Neighborhood).
    * Congregation Bnai Yosef, the Sitt Shul, at 1616 Ocean Parkway, on the corner of Avenue P. - Rabbi Haim Benoliel
    * Bnei Binyamin Torah Center, at 727 Avenue O. - Rabbi Solomon Seruya
    * Bnei Yitzhak, at 730 Avenue S. - Rabbi Harold Sutton (Rosh Yeshiba of the Magen David Yeshiva, and Rosh Kollel of the Sephardic Rabbinical College).
    * Bnei Yitzhak Annex, at 718 Avenue S.
    * Hesed Avraham, at 59 Gravesend Neck Road.
    * Har Halebanon, at 820 Avenue S. - Rabbi David Jemal and Rabbi Clem Harari
    * Hayim Shaal Congregation, at 1123 Avenue N (Midwood Neighborhood). - Rabbi Mordechai Maslaton
    * Keter Sion, at 1914 East 8th Street. - Rabbi Max Maslaton (son of Rabbi Sion Maslaton)
    * Kol Israel Congregation, at 3211 Bedford Avenue. - Rabbi Dr. Raymond Harari (Rosh Yeshiva of the Yeshiva of Flatbush).
    * Kollel Ohel Moshe, also known as Rabbi Lankry's Synagogue, at 1848 East 7th Street between Avenue R and Kings Highway, for Moroccan Jews. - Rabbi Shlomo Lankry
    * Madison Torah Center, at 2221 Avenue R. - Rabbi Danny Tawil and Rabbi Shmuel Aini
    * Magen Abraham, housed in the former Torah Academy of Brooklyn high school, at 2066 East 9th Street.
    * Magen David Synagogue, housed in the Magen David Yeshivah, at 2130 McDonald Avenue. - Rabbi Joey Haber, Rabbi Haim Shaul and Rabbi Ikey Tawil
    * Netivot Israel Congregation, at 1617 Ocean Parkway, for Moroccan Jews. - Rabbi Gad Bouskila
    * Ohel Moshe, at Avenue P and East 16th Street. - Rabbi Moshe Levy
    * Ohr Hachaim, at 2286 Coney Island Avenue.
    * Rabbi Yehouda Ben Betera Congregation, at 2296 Coney Island Avenue, for Qamishli Jews. - Rabbi Marco Nakash
    * Sephardic Center of Mill Basin, at 6208 Strickland Avenue (Mill Basin Neighborhood). - Rabbi Abraham Levy
    * Sephardic Lebanese Congregation, at 805 Avenue T. - Rabbi Eliyahu Elbaz
    * Sephardic Synagogue, housed in the former Sephardic Institute, at 511 Avenue R. - Rabbi Moshe Shamah and Rabbi Ronald Barry
    * Shaare Rahamim, at 1244 East 7th Street (Midwood Neighborhood). - Rabbi Shlomo Churba
    * Shaare Shalom, at 2021 Avenue S (Madison Neighborhood). - Rabbi Joe Dweck (Rosh Yeshiba of Barkai Yeshiva)
    * Shaare Torah, at 1680 Coney Island Avenue (Midwood Neighborhood).
    * Shevet Achim Congregation, at 708 Avenue T, for Damascus (Shami) Jews. - Rabbi Yosheyahu Shammah and Rabbi Yosef Hamra
    * Shevet Achim Youth Congregation, at 706 Avenue T. - Cantor Chaim Leviov
    * Shuva Israel, at 2015 Avenue R.
    * Sukkat Daveed Congregation, at 807 Avenue T.
    * Tiferet Torah Congregation, on East 3rd Street between Avenue P and Quentin Road. - Rabbi Michael Haber
    * Congregation Torat Israel, at 710 Shore Boulevard (Manhattan Beach Neighborhood). - Rabbi Jacob Farhi
    * Congregation Yam Hatorah, at 1573 East 10th Street.
    * Yad Yosef Torah Center, at 1032 Ocean Parkway (Midwood Neighborhood). - Rabbi David Ozeri and Rabbi David Sutton
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« Reply #987 on: March 21, 2012, 11:18:43 pm »
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Well, if there are lots of Sefardim in the Orthodox block, that makes it worse: they can't be part of the same linguistic minority, as they don't speak Yiddish. They can't be part of the same religious minority, because it is not protectable. That leaves the racial designation, which is both borderline anti-semitic and not even very certain to succeed, as it is pretty hard to identify them w/ the Ashkenazim in any way that is not reliant on religion. Tough - I guess, any arguments relying on the joint numbers of Sefardim and Ashkenazim might not be allowable.
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« Reply #988 on: March 21, 2012, 11:39:08 pm »
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besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.


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« Reply #989 on: March 21, 2012, 11:48:43 pm »
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He agreed that gay marriage did indeed tank Welperin, allowing Turner to win.


more proof of Orthodox opposition to marriage.

keep in mind NYS state already passed marriage redefinition and congress didn't pass the disrespect for marriage act (so this senate election was seen somewhat as a statement) and Fidler wasn't Orthodox and never gave a speech (which hurt him even more then the marriage vote).

the 48th Ad overlap with the 27th SD was around 70% for Storobin. (he also won the rest of the Orthodox vote)

 from the NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/nyregion/both-sides-declare-victory-in-bumpy-brooklyn-senate-race.html?_r=2
Quote
He generated support from the staunchly Orthodox communities who did not favor Mr. Fidler’s support of same-sex marriage.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/22/nyregion/in-overtime-close-senate-election-shifts-to-the-vote-counters.html
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He took advantage of two growing and politically conservative communities in Brooklyn — Orthodox Jews, who related to Mr. Storobin’s position against same-sex marriage, and Russians, who were eager to elect a young candidate who spoke their language.

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« Reply #990 on: March 21, 2012, 11:51:53 pm »
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besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.




or the polls are way off because they underestimate the Orthodox and Russian (also Iranian ext.) vote's big. 




keep in mind this was 10 years ago and the demographics are getting much more Orthodox.
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/C-NY-New_York-2002-Main_Report.pdf
185,700 Russian speaking Jews in NYC
331,200 Orthodox Jews in NYC
972,000 Jews in NYC
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« Reply #991 on: March 22, 2012, 12:16:43 am »
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besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.




or the polls are way off because they underestimate the Orthodox and Russian vote's big. 

Any reason to believe that? Unless, of course, the Orthodox and the Russians are somehow ashamed of their anti-Jewish behavior and refuse to answer the pollsters, that is Smiley)

In any case, for the moment we do not have a shred of evidence that most NY Jews would prefer electing Republican to electing a Democrat, but definite evidence that it is the other way around. Until polls and exit polls start showing that it is the other way around, why exactly would anyone decide that they, as a group, would need a Republican district in Brooklyn?

This is even if we forget, that the current congressional delegation from New York already has at least 5 Jewish congressmen and a Jewish Senator, most of them elected w/ overwhelming Jewish support. Drawing a district that would reliably elect a Republican Catholic to the dismay of most NY State Jews (the latter according to the best available evidence) seems a very interesting way of letting the Jews elect a candidate of their choice.

To sum up, it seems increasingly clear, that NY Jew does NOT want Jews as such to be the protected minority. As there is no way of drawing together the Orthodox (both Sefardic and Ashkenazic) and the Russians to the exclusion of the secular American Jewish population into any community based on anything other than their shared support of the Republican party (based to a significant extent, let us be honest, on dislike of blacks and other racial minorities), it is equally clear that the group he would like to protect are the Republican Jews.
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« Reply #992 on: March 22, 2012, 12:26:29 am »
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BTW, even if I believe the Jewish databank data (btw, interestingly enough, you exclude the NYState Jews outside the city - why, may I inquire? they are about 40% of the total, if I am not much mistaken; or do you think that the protected community should be Republican Jews in NYCity?) you forget that a) Russians outside of Brighton Beach are a lot less Republican (probably, in fact, substantially Democratic, as they quickly become American Jews) and, in the absence of recent massive Russian immigration they, as a community are becoming less and less distinct from the general secular Jewish population (even if they don't move to Jersey Smiley) ) and  b) Orthodox families have lots of kids - these are not voting age and would not be voting for a while.

In any case, it would be a coherent position that Orthodox Jews are a distinct cultural community that should be protected - but there are not enough of the Orthodox for an Orthodox majority district (forget about VAP), and certainly not enough of them for an Orthodox majority district in Brooklyn. It would be a coherent position that Jews (or, at least, Ashkenazic Jews) should be protected as a whole - but these are still mostly Democratic by all the evidence we have. It's NOT a coherent position to ask to protect the Orthodox and the Russians together, to the exclusion of the rest.
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« Reply #993 on: March 22, 2012, 12:35:48 am »
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besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.




or the polls are way off because they underestimate the Orthodox and Russian vote's big. 

Any reason to believe that? Unless, of course, the Orthodox and the Russians are somehow ashamed of their anti-Jewish behavior and refuse to answer the pollsters, that is Smiley)

In any case, for the moment we do not have a shred of evidence that most NY Jews would prefer electing Republican to electing a Democrat, but definite evidence that it is the other way around. Until polls and exit polls start showing that it is the other way around, why exactly would anyone decide that they, as a group, would need a Republican district in Brooklyn?

This is even if we forget, that the current congressional delegation from New York already has at least 5 Jewish congressmen and a Jewish Senator, most of them elected w/ overwhelming Jewish support. Drawing a district that would reliably elect a Republican Catholic to the dismay of most NY State Jews (the latter according to the best available evidence) seems a very interesting way of letting the Jews elect a candidate of their choice.

To sum up, it seems increasingly clear, that NY Jew does NOT want Jews as such to be the protected minority. As there is no way of drawing together the Orthodox (both Sefardic and Ashkenazic) and the Russians to the exclusion of the secular American Jewish population into any community based on anything other than their shared support of the Republican party (based to a significant extent, let us be honest, on dislike of blacks and other racial minorities), it is equally clear that the group he would like to protect are the Republican Jews.
why don't you look at who they vote for in elections (in areas where they are the majority) that might be a better indicator then exit polls.  there is no way in the world that the calculated for all the heavy McCain Jewish neighborhoods throughout the country.
I'll be shocked if McCain didn't win the NYC Jewish vote.  most Orthodox and Russian jews don't want to speak to pollsters.
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« Reply #994 on: March 22, 2012, 12:37:53 am »
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Well, if there are lots of Sefardim in the Orthodox block, that makes it worse: they can't be part of the same linguistic minority, as they don't speak Yiddish. They can't be part of the same religious minority, because it is not protectable. That leaves the racial designation, which is both borderline anti-semitic and not even very certain to succeed, as it is pretty hard to identify them w/ the Ashkenazim in any way that is not reliant on religion. Tough - I guess, any arguments relying on the joint numbers of Sefardim and Ashkenazim might not be allowable.
A coalition district?  Do Sefardim and Ashenazim vote for different candidates in contested primaries?
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« Reply #995 on: March 22, 2012, 12:53:53 am »
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This is even if we forget, that the current congressional delegation from New York already has at least 5 Jewish congressmen and a Jewish Senator, most of them elected w/ overwhelming Jewish support. Drawing a district that would reliably elect a Republican Catholic to the dismay of most NY State Jews (the latter according to the best available evidence) seems a very interesting way of letting the Jews elect a candidate of their choice.


Which current jewish congressmen was elected with overwhelming Jewish support in their last election?


in 2002 according to the federation there are in zip codes (with a much bigger general population then Cony Island) 11201, 11231, 11217, 11215 there 27,000 jews (and I'm sure much less now)
in the Cony Island one of the areas you want to take out zip codes 11224 and 11235 there are 54,500 jews


the only way to actually make a jewish majority compact district would be to combine the Orthodox and Russian and and leave out the non Orthodox/Russian jews there aren't enough of them to include them in the district and they are not the majority in any area in the city.  the only way possible to get a majority jewish compact district is to do something similar to what the Orthodox group did.  taking out Geristan Beach for example and putting in parts of Bensehurst would make this more jewish and more Orthodox and Russian though (not sure why they didn't do that as GB has more in common with the catholic district)


« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 01:08:19 am by NY Jew »Logged
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« Reply #996 on: March 22, 2012, 01:04:21 am »
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BTW, even if I believe the Jewish databank data (btw, interestingly enough, you exclude the NYState Jews outside the city - why, may I inquire? they are about 40% of the total, if I am not much mistaken; or do you think that the protected community should be Republican Jews in NYCity?) you forget that a) Russians outside of Brighton Beach are a lot less Republican (probably, in fact, substantially Democratic, as they quickly become American Jews) and, in the absence of recent massive Russian immigration they, as a community are becoming less and less distinct from the general secular Jewish population (even if they don't move to Jersey Smiley) ) and  b) Orthodox families have lots of kids - these are not voting age and would not be voting for a while.

In any case, it would be a coherent position that Orthodox Jews are a distinct cultural community that should be protected - but there are not enough of the Orthodox for an Orthodox majority district (forget about VAP), and certainly not enough of them for an Orthodox majority district in Brooklyn. It would be a coherent position that Jews (or, at least, Ashkenazic Jews) should be protected as a whole - but these are still mostly Democratic by all the evidence we have. It's NOT a coherent position to ask to protect the Orthodox and the Russians together, to the exclusion of the rest.
be cause they are not compact by any measure of the word the only compact jewish areas are Jewish minority's.  There is no way to make a majority Jewish district that Jews voted majority for McCain the only way to make it vote for McCain it is to make a ugly gerrymander to include enough non jewish votes. and most likely would not work in with the voting rights act.

Just for the record I think all Jews should be included but since there is no where else in the country besides southern Brooklyn that there can be a compact Jewish majority district that makes your whole argument mute
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 01:09:59 am by NY Jew »Logged
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« Reply #997 on: March 22, 2012, 01:07:18 am »
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Well, if there are lots of Sefardim in the Orthodox block, that makes it worse: they can't be part of the same linguistic minority, as they don't speak Yiddish. They can't be part of the same religious minority, because it is not protectable. That leaves the racial designation, which is both borderline anti-semitic and not even very certain to succeed, as it is pretty hard to identify them w/ the Ashkenazim in any way that is not reliant on religion. Tough - I guess, any arguments relying on the joint numbers of Sefardim and Ashkenazim might not be allowable.
A coalition district?  Do Sefardim and Ashenazim vote for different candidates in contested primaries?
the only time I ever saw a difference was in a closely contested city council race and that candidate had other Orthodox support.
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« Reply #998 on: March 22, 2012, 01:43:51 am »
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why don't you look at who they vote for in elections (in areas where they are the majority) that might be a better indicator then exit polls.  there is no way in the world that the calculated for all the heavy McCain Jewish neighborhoods throughout the country.
I'll be shocked if McCain didn't win the NYC Jewish vote.  most Orthodox and Russian jews don't want to speak to pollsters.

This is unadulterated nonsense. There is no evidence the Russians don't talk to exit pollsters in any numbers that are distinct from the other population groups and in ways that are unanticipated by the pollsters. Based on the exit poll numbers I'd be shocked if McCain got much more than 40% of NYCity Jewish vote or 35% of NYState Jewish vote.

People who live in the ghetto vote differently from those who live outside it. There is a reason all those Russians have moved out of the greater Brighton Beach area: they don't like to live in the ghetto. They still go there a few times a year to stock up on Russian food and books - and then spend weeks discussing the barbarousness of the permanent residents of that self-made Soviet shtetl (hey, even the Russian dialect of Brighton Beach is a major subject of hilarious jokes). A trip to a Russian deli in Brighton Beach is an incredible, exotic experience to most Russian Jews in the US.

Unlike the Brighton Beach crowd, people from outside the area, tend to be more fluent in English - the get less of their information from the Russian-American media (there is a reason the Novoe Russkoe Slovo has died - young people didn't read it). Those outsiders, especially the younger ones, most definitely DO NOT vote the same as the brightonbeachers. There might still be a slightly elevated share of Republicans among these assimilated Russians, as compared to other Jews, but I don't think there is any doubt that they are, actually, mostly voting Dem. Also, keep in mind, the Russian community is not homogenous: electoral habits of those who came from small-town Ukraine and those who came from major cities in Russia should not be confused. And Brighton Beach is, mostly, about the former, not the latter. By the time you get to Washington Heights even some elderly Russian ladies might be volunteering for Dem causes.

As for the Orthodox - well, these do overwhelmingly live in the ghetto. The problem is, their electoral strength lags behind their raw numbers: too many kids. Of course, this is only a temporary delay, but a delay it is - you need to be 18 to vote (and, thus, to show up in exit polls).
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 01:59:35 am by ag »Logged

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« Reply #999 on: March 22, 2012, 01:57:12 am »
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Again, there is no reason to create a "majority Jewish" district to elect congressmen that would be rejected by a large majority of NY State Jews. I could see a reason to create a district for the ultra-Orthodox, if they were sufficiently numerous in a compact area - but the are not, at least not yet. Joining the Russians and the Orthodox serves no identifiable objective, except electing a Republican congressman and, perhaps, spiting most NY Jews, who would be opposed to creation of such a district. There are 5 Jewish congressmen currently that are elected in NY State, and there is every reason to believe that they got an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote in their districts, which represent a substantial proportion of NY State Jewish population. That most voters in those districts were not Jewish is NOT an argument in support of segregating Jews in "Jewish" districts: as it is, Jewish voters elect the representatives of their choice. That a minority of the Jewish voting public is unhappy is undeniable - but that is not a legal reason to do anything.

I am coming to believe that you are an archetypal "self-hating Jew". You happen to sincerely dislike most of your fellow-tribesmen and prefer to invent your own idea of a Jewish-American, that has little to do w/ reality, at least of today. Well, the Woody Allens, and not the Bob Turners, are still the Jews you have to deal with, if you are talking of NY Jewry.
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