US House Redistricting: New York

[ag]

besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.

[NY Jew]

He agreed that gay marriage did indeed tank Welperin, allowing Turner to win.

more proof of Orthodox opposition to marriage.

keep in mind NYS state already passed marriage redefinition and congress didn't pass the disrespect for marriage act (so this senate election was seen somewhat as a statement) and Fidler wasn't Orthodox and never gave a speech (which hurt him even more then the marriage vote).

the 48th Ad overlap with the 27th SD was around 70% for Storobin. (he also won the rest of the Orthodox vote)

 from the NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/nyregion/both-sides-declare-victory-in-bumpy-brooklyn-senate-race.html?_r=2

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/22/nyregion/in-overtime-close-senate-election-shifts-to-the-vote-counters.html

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[NY Jew]

besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.

or the polls are way off because they underestimate the Orthodox and Russian (also Iranian ext.) vote's big. 




keep in mind this was 10 years ago and the demographics are getting much more Orthodox.
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/C-NY-New_York-2002-Main_Report.pdf
185,700 Russian speaking Jews in NYC
331,200 Orthodox Jews in NYC
972,000 Jews in NYC

[ag]

besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.

or the polls are way off because they underestimate the Orthodox and Russian vote's big. 

Any reason to believe that? Unless, of course, the Orthodox and the Russians are somehow ashamed of their anti-Jewish behavior and refuse to answer the pollsters, that is )

In any case, for the moment we do not have a shred of evidence that most NY Jews would prefer electing Republican to electing a Democrat, but definite evidence that it is the other way around. Until polls and exit polls start showing that it is the other way around, why exactly would anyone decide that they, as a group, would need a Republican district in Brooklyn?

This is even if we forget, that the current congressional delegation from New York already has at least 5 Jewish congressmen and a Jewish Senator, most of them elected w/ overwhelming Jewish support. Drawing a district that would reliably elect a Republican Catholic to the dismay of most NY State Jews (the latter according to the best available evidence) seems a very interesting way of letting the Jews elect a candidate of their choice.

To sum up, it seems increasingly clear, that NY Jew does NOT want Jews as such to be the protected minority. As there is no way of drawing together the Orthodox (both Sefardic and Ashkenazic) and the Russians to the exclusion of the secular American Jewish population into any community based on anything other than their shared support of the Republican party (based to a significant extent, let us be honest, on dislike of blacks and other racial minorities), it is equally clear that the group he would like to protect are the Republican Jews.

[ag]

BTW, even if I believe the Jewish databank data (btw, interestingly enough, you exclude the NYState Jews outside the city - why, may I inquire? they are about 40% of the total, if I am not much mistaken; or do you think that the protected community should be Republican Jews in NYCity?) you forget that a) Russians outside of Brighton Beach are a lot less Republican (probably, in fact, substantially Democratic, as they quickly become American Jews) and, in the absence of recent massive Russian immigration they, as a community are becoming less and less distinct from the general secular Jewish population (even if they don't move to Jersey ) ) and  b) Orthodox families have lots of kids - these are not voting age and would not be voting for a while.

In any case, it would be a coherent position that Orthodox Jews are a distinct cultural community that should be protected - but there are not enough of the Orthodox for an Orthodox majority district (forget about VAP), and certainly not enough of them for an Orthodox majority district in Brooklyn. It would be a coherent position that Jews (or, at least, Ashkenazic Jews) should be protected as a whole - but these are still mostly Democratic by all the evidence we have. It's NOT a coherent position to ask to protect the Orthodox and the Russians together, to the exclusion of the rest.

[NY Jew]

besides Orthodox + Russian Jews are around 60% of NYC Jewish population.

If that is true (and I would need a source), this would suggest that the two blocks together are fairly Democratic (which is not that surprising, since, once the younger Russian Jews move off the Brighton Beach, they tend to assimilate in the general secular Jewish population and start voting Dem). I haven't found the exit poll number for Jews in NY state in 2008, but for Jews nationwide the NYTimes exit poll shows that 78% of them voted for Obama (fairly typical numbers; the Jewish share of vote for the Dem presidential candiate in the last 5 cycles has oscillated between 74% for Kerry in 2004 and 80% for Clinton in 1992). About a quarter of US Jews lives in NY state, so, if most NY Jews, did not vote for Obama, this would imply that nearly 90% of the Jews outside of NY State voted for him. And it is not as if there were no Russians or Orthodox in the other 49 states. It simply seems implausible to assume anything other than most Jews in NY State reliably vote Dem in most elections. Drawing a Republican district to represent this "protected minority" seems a rather strange exercise.

Of course, there remains a possibility (that seems increasingly likely to me) that NY Jew is simply using the definition of Jewishness that excludes Woody Allen and the 3 Supreme Court Justices and includes Bob Turner. Thus, the minority to be protected is DEFINED to be "Jews who vote Republican and allies". Good luck defending that in court.

or the polls are way off because they underestimate the Orthodox and Russian vote's big. 

Any reason to believe that? Unless, of course, the Orthodox and the Russians are somehow ashamed of their anti-Jewish behavior and refuse to answer the pollsters, that is )

In any case, for the moment we do not have a shred of evidence that most NY Jews would prefer electing Republican to electing a Democrat, but definite evidence that it is the other way around. Until polls and exit polls start showing that it is the other way around, why exactly would anyone decide that they, as a group, would need a Republican district in Brooklyn?

This is even if we forget, that the current congressional delegation from New York already has at least 5 Jewish congressmen and a Jewish Senator, most of them elected w/ overwhelming Jewish support. Drawing a district that would reliably elect a Republican Catholic to the dismay of most NY State Jews (the latter according to the best available evidence) seems a very interesting way of letting the Jews elect a candidate of their choice.

To sum up, it seems increasingly clear, that NY Jew does NOT want Jews as such to be the protected minority. As there is no way of drawing together the Orthodox (both Sefardic and Ashkenazic) and the Russians to the exclusion of the secular American Jewish population into any community based on anything other than their shared support of the Republican party (based to a significant extent, let us be honest, on dislike of blacks and other racial minorities), it is equally clear that the group he would like to protect are the Republican Jews.

why don't you look at who they vote for in elections (in areas where they are the majority) that might be a better indicator then exit polls.  there is no way in the world that the calculated for all the heavy McCain Jewish neighborhoods throughout the country.
I'll be shocked if McCain didn't win the NYC Jewish vote.  most Orthodox and Russian jews don't want to speak to pollsters.

[jimrtex]

Well, if there are lots of Sefardim in the Orthodox block, that makes it worse: they can't be part of the same linguistic minority, as they don't speak Yiddish. They can't be part of the same religious minority, because it is not protectable. That leaves the racial designation, which is both borderline anti-semitic and not even very certain to succeed, as it is pretty hard to identify them w/ the Ashkenazim in any way that is not reliant on religion. Tough - I guess, any arguments relying on the joint numbers of Sefardim and Ashkenazim might not be allowable.

A coalition district?  Do Sefardim and Ashenazim vote for different candidates in contested primaries?

[NY Jew]

This is even if we forget, that the current congressional delegation from New York already has at least 5 Jewish congressmen and a Jewish Senator, most of them elected w/ overwhelming Jewish support. Drawing a district that would reliably elect a Republican Catholic to the dismay of most NY State Jews (the latter according to the best available evidence) seems a very interesting way of letting the Jews elect a candidate of their choice.

Which current jewish congressmen was elected with overwhelming Jewish support in their last election?


in 2002 according to the federation there are in zip codes (with a much bigger general population then Cony Island) 11201, 11231, 11217, 11215 there 27,000 jews (and I'm sure much less now)
in the Cony Island one of the areas you want to take out zip codes 11224 and 11235 there are 54,500 jews


the only way to actually make a jewish majority compact district would be to combine the Orthodox and Russian and and leave out the non Orthodox/Russian jews there aren't enough of them to include them in the district and they are not the majority in any area in the city.  the only way possible to get a majority jewish compact district is to do something similar to what the Orthodox group did.  taking out Geristan Beach for example and putting in parts of Bensehurst would make this more jewish and more Orthodox and Russian though (not sure why they didn't do that as GB has more in common with the catholic district)

[NY Jew]

BTW, even if I believe the Jewish databank data (btw, interestingly enough, you exclude the NYState Jews outside the city - why, may I inquire? they are about 40% of the total, if I am not much mistaken; or do you think that the protected community should be Republican Jews in NYCity?) you forget that a) Russians outside of Brighton Beach are a lot less Republican (probably, in fact, substantially Democratic, as they quickly become American Jews) and, in the absence of recent massive Russian immigration they, as a community are becoming less and less distinct from the general secular Jewish population (even if they don't move to Jersey ) ) and  b) Orthodox families have lots of kids - these are not voting age and would not be voting for a while.

In any case, it would be a coherent position that Orthodox Jews are a distinct cultural community that should be protected - but there are not enough of the Orthodox for an Orthodox majority district (forget about VAP), and certainly not enough of them for an Orthodox majority district in Brooklyn. It would be a coherent position that Jews (or, at least, Ashkenazic Jews) should be protected as a whole - but these are still mostly Democratic by all the evidence we have. It's NOT a coherent position to ask to protect the Orthodox and the Russians together, to the exclusion of the rest.

be cause they are not compact by any measure of the word the only compact jewish areas are Jewish minority's.  There is no way to make a majority Jewish district that Jews voted majority for McCain the only way to make it vote for McCain it is to make a ugly gerrymander to include enough non jewish votes. and most likely would not work in with the voting rights act.

Just for the record I think all Jews should be included but since there is no where else in the country besides southern Brooklyn that there can be a compact Jewish majority district that makes your whole argument mute

[NY Jew]

Well, if there are lots of Sefardim in the Orthodox block, that makes it worse: they can't be part of the same linguistic minority, as they don't speak Yiddish. They can't be part of the same religious minority, because it is not protectable. That leaves the racial designation, which is both borderline anti-semitic and not even very certain to succeed, as it is pretty hard to identify them w/ the Ashkenazim in any way that is not reliant on religion. Tough - I guess, any arguments relying on the joint numbers of Sefardim and Ashkenazim might not be allowable.

A coalition district?  Do Sefardim and Ashenazim vote for different candidates in contested primaries?

the only time I ever saw a difference was in a closely contested city council race and that candidate had other Orthodox support.

[ag]

why don't you look at who they vote for in elections (in areas where they are the majority) that might be a better indicator then exit polls.  there is no way in the world that the calculated for all the heavy McCain Jewish neighborhoods throughout the country.
I'll be shocked if McCain didn't win the NYC Jewish vote.  most Orthodox and Russian jews don't want to speak to pollsters.

This is unadulterated nonsense. There is no evidence the Russians don't talk to exit pollsters in any numbers that are distinct from the other population groups and in ways that are unanticipated by the pollsters. Based on the exit poll numbers I'd be shocked if McCain got much more than 40% of NYCity Jewish vote or 35% of NYState Jewish vote.

People who live in the ghetto vote differently from those who live outside it. There is a reason all those Russians have moved out of the greater Brighton Beach area: they don't like to live in the ghetto. They still go there a few times a year to stock up on Russian food and books - and then spend weeks discussing the barbarousness of the permanent residents of that self-made Soviet shtetl (hey, even the Russian dialect of Brighton Beach is a major subject of hilarious jokes). A trip to a Russian deli in Brighton Beach is an incredible, exotic experience to most Russian Jews in the US.

Unlike the Brighton Beach crowd, people from outside the area, tend to be more fluent in English - the get less of their information from the Russian-American media (there is a reason the Novoe Russkoe Slovo has died - young people didn't read it). Those outsiders, especially the younger ones, most definitely DO NOT vote the same as the brightonbeachers. There might still be a slightly elevated share of Republicans among these assimilated Russians, as compared to other Jews, but I don't think there is any doubt that they are, actually, mostly voting Dem. Also, keep in mind, the Russian community is not homogenous: electoral habits of those who came from small-town Ukraine and those who came from major cities in Russia should not be confused. And Brighton Beach is, mostly, about the former, not the latter. By the time you get to Washington Heights even some elderly Russian ladies might be volunteering for Dem causes.

As for the Orthodox - well, these do overwhelmingly live in the ghetto. The problem is, their electoral strength lags behind their raw numbers: too many kids. Of course, this is only a temporary delay, but a delay it is - you need to be 18 to vote (and, thus, to show up in exit polls).

[ag]

Again, there is no reason to create a "majority Jewish" district to elect congressmen that would be rejected by a large majority of NY State Jews. I could see a reason to create a district for the ultra-Orthodox, if they were sufficiently numerous in a compact area - but the are not, at least not yet. Joining the Russians and the Orthodox serves no identifiable objective, except electing a Republican congressman and, perhaps, spiting most NY Jews, who would be opposed to creation of such a district. There are 5 Jewish congressmen currently that are elected in NY State, and there is every reason to believe that they got an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote in their districts, which represent a substantial proportion of NY State Jewish population. That most voters in those districts were not Jewish is NOT an argument in support of segregating Jews in "Jewish" districts: as it is, Jewish voters elect the representatives of their choice. That a minority of the Jewish voting public is unhappy is undeniable - but that is not a legal reason to do anything.

I am coming to believe that you are an archetypal "self-hating Jew". You happen to sincerely dislike most of your fellow-tribesmen and prefer to invent your own idea of a Jewish-American, that has little to do w/ reality, at least of today. Well, the Woody Allens, and not the Bob Turners, are still the Jews you have to deal with, if you are talking of NY Jewry.

[NY Jew]

Again, there is no reason to create a "majority Jewish" district to elect congressmen that would be rejected by a large majority of NY State Jews. I could see a reason to create a district for the ultra-Orthodox, if they were sufficiently numerous in a compact area - but the are not, at least not yet. Joining the Russians and the Orthodox serves no identifiable objective, except electing a Republican congressman and, perhaps, spiting most NY Jews, who would be opposed to creation of such a district. There are 5 Jewish congressmen currently that are elected in NY State, and there is every reason to believe that they got an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote in their districts, which represent a substantial proportion of NY State Jewish population. That most voters in those districts were not Jewish is NOT an argument in support of segregating Jews in "Jewish" districts: as it is, Jewish voters elect the representatives of their choice. That a minority of the Jewish voting public is unhappy is undeniable - but that is not a legal reason to do anything.

I am coming to believe that you are an archetypal "self-hating Jew". You happen to sincerely dislike most of your fellow-tribesmen and prefer to invent your own idea of a Jewish-American, that has little to do w/ reality, at least of today. Well, the Woody Allens, and not the Bob Turners, are still the Jews you have to deal with, if you are talking of NY Jewry.

Noach Dear could run in that district as a democrat and easily get 70% of the vote.

[NY Jew]

Again, there is no reason to create a "majority Jewish" district to elect congressmen that would be rejected by a large majority of NY State Jews. I could see a reason to create a district for the ultra-Orthodox, if they were sufficiently numerous in a compact area - but the are not, at least not yet. Joining the Russians and the Orthodox serves no identifiable objective, except electing a Republican congressman and, perhaps, spiting most NY Jews, who would be opposed to creation of such a district. There are 5 Jewish congressmen currently that are elected in NY State, and there is every reason to believe that they got an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote in their districts, which represent a substantial proportion of NY State Jewish population. That most voters in those districts were not Jewish is NOT an argument in support of segregating Jews in "Jewish" districts: as it is, Jewish voters elect the representatives of their choice. That a minority of the Jewish voting public is unhappy is undeniable - but that is not a legal reason to do anything.

I am coming to believe that you are an archetypal "self-hating Jew". You happen to sincerely dislike most of your fellow-tribesmen and prefer to invent your own idea of a Jewish-American, that has little to do w/ reality, at least of today. Well, the Woody Allens, and not the Bob Turners, are still the Jews you have to deal with, if you are talking of NY Jewry.

well considering Nadler lost Brighton Beach, Flatbush and Borough Park and based on what I know about the upper West Side I know he was hit hardest by Jews there I would wager he lost the Jewish vote.

Engel, Ackerman probably won the Jewish vote but the Jewish vote% was probably much smaller then their total vote%
Lowey and Israel fit your description.

[Brittain33]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

[muon2]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

[krazen1211]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

It was a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth.

[Torie]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

The "internal problem" is that Slaughter is refusing to retire. I suspect that she can be bagged given the Pubs have such a strong candidate, and it should be a good Pub year.  The problem is then trying to hold it when the Dems come up with a much better opponent. It will be a tough call given that how much money the RNC and the PACS and so forth want to spend on this race given that it seems to me. Maybe if Buerkle goes down with Slaughter (quite possible), in an ensuing bi-partisan gerrymander after the election (I would not count that out depending on what happens), the two CD's can then do a precinct exchange - just in the reverse direction of what might have happened if a bi-partisan gerrymander were done this year.

The Dems probably will demand in such a deal that Israel and Lowey be shored up as part of such a deal however, assuming they both get re-elected (which of course is highly probable with Lowey, but somewhat less probable with Israel, depending on how good an opponent he gets, and how much money is dumped into the race). What happens in NY-01 might be part of the mix too.

Ah the wheels within wheels.

[Mr.Phips]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

The "internal problem" is that Slaughter is refusing to retire. I suspect that she can be bagged given the Pubs have such a strong candidate, and it should be a good Pub year.  The problem is then trying to hold it when the Dems come up with a much better opponent. It will be a tough call given that how much money the RNC and the PACS and so forth want to spend on this race given that it seems to me. Maybe if Buerkle goes down with Slaughter (quite possible), in an ensuing bi-partisan gerrymander after the election (I would not count that out depending on what happens), the two CD's can then do a precinct exchange - just in the reverse direction of what might have happened if a bi-partisan gerrymander were done this year.

The Dems probably will demand in such a deal that Israel and Lowey be shored up as part of such a deal however, assuming they both get re-elected (which of course is highly probable with Lowey, but somewhat less probable with Israel, depending on how good an opponent he gets, and how much money is dumped into the race). What happens in NY-01 might be part of the mix too.

Ah the wheels within wheels.

A good Republican year?  If Obama wins, I doubt it will be a good Republican year. 

[Brittain33]

A good Republican year?  If Obama wins, I doubt it will be a good Republican year. 

Yeah... I'm assuming either evenly balanced or slightly Dem year, which means some Republican losses but continued control of the House.

[Mr.Phips]

A good Republican year?  If Obama wins, I doubt it will be a good Republican year. 

Yeah... I'm assuming either evenly balanced or slightly Dem year, which means some Republican losses but continued control of the House.

Im expecting the House to be around 225-210. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

If I were a Republican strategist, I'd be arguing that Slaughter isn't worth it. First of all you still have to consider any opponent's going to need about 1/6 of Obama voters while keeping the Tea Party people who already aren't happy about Romney satisfied. Not easy to do simply on the "old and in office too long" way of thinking, it didn't even work against Kanjorski without a GOP wave and he had corruption issues on top of that. More like a recipe for Slaughter to end up with only 53-54%, which might finally convince her to retire. But that just means a new fresh Dem takes the seat. And even if they manage to pull it off, the seat is gone as soon as the Dems have a good year again. There's plenty of vulnerable GOP incumbents who are more in need of that money, including ones in the same state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

[Torie]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

It is animated by my low opinion of Slaughter. We shall see.

[krazen1211]

Does anyone have a close up comparison between Slaughter's 1988 district and the 2012 district and how much additional territory is in the current one?