US House Redistricting: New York

[NY Jew]

Again, there is no reason to create a "majority Jewish" district to elect congressmen that would be rejected by a large majority of NY State Jews. I could see a reason to create a district for the ultra-Orthodox, if they were sufficiently numerous in a compact area - but the are not, at least not yet. Joining the Russians and the Orthodox serves no identifiable objective, except electing a Republican congressman and, perhaps, spiting most NY Jews, who would be opposed to creation of such a district. There are 5 Jewish congressmen currently that are elected in NY State, and there is every reason to believe that they got an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote in their districts, which represent a substantial proportion of NY State Jewish population. That most voters in those districts were not Jewish is NOT an argument in support of segregating Jews in "Jewish" districts: as it is, Jewish voters elect the representatives of their choice. That a minority of the Jewish voting public is unhappy is undeniable - but that is not a legal reason to do anything.

I am coming to believe that you are an archetypal "self-hating Jew". You happen to sincerely dislike most of your fellow-tribesmen and prefer to invent your own idea of a Jewish-American, that has little to do w/ reality, at least of today. Well, the Woody Allens, and not the Bob Turners, are still the Jews you have to deal with, if you are talking of NY Jewry.

Noach Dear could run in that district as a democrat and easily get 70% of the vote.

[NY Jew]

Again, there is no reason to create a "majority Jewish" district to elect congressmen that would be rejected by a large majority of NY State Jews. I could see a reason to create a district for the ultra-Orthodox, if they were sufficiently numerous in a compact area - but the are not, at least not yet. Joining the Russians and the Orthodox serves no identifiable objective, except electing a Republican congressman and, perhaps, spiting most NY Jews, who would be opposed to creation of such a district. There are 5 Jewish congressmen currently that are elected in NY State, and there is every reason to believe that they got an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote in their districts, which represent a substantial proportion of NY State Jewish population. That most voters in those districts were not Jewish is NOT an argument in support of segregating Jews in "Jewish" districts: as it is, Jewish voters elect the representatives of their choice. That a minority of the Jewish voting public is unhappy is undeniable - but that is not a legal reason to do anything.

I am coming to believe that you are an archetypal "self-hating Jew". You happen to sincerely dislike most of your fellow-tribesmen and prefer to invent your own idea of a Jewish-American, that has little to do w/ reality, at least of today. Well, the Woody Allens, and not the Bob Turners, are still the Jews you have to deal with, if you are talking of NY Jewry.

well considering Nadler lost Brighton Beach, Flatbush and Borough Park and based on what I know about the upper West Side I know he was hit hardest by Jews there I would wager he lost the Jewish vote.

Engel, Ackerman probably won the Jewish vote but the Jewish vote% was probably much smaller then their total vote%
Lowey and Israel fit your description.

[Gravis Marketing]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

[muon2]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

[krazen1211]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

It was a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth.

[Torie]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

The "internal problem" is that Slaughter is refusing to retire. I suspect that she can be bagged given the Pubs have such a strong candidate, and it should be a good Pub year.  The problem is then trying to hold it when the Dems come up with a much better opponent. It will be a tough call given that how much money the RNC and the PACS and so forth want to spend on this race given that it seems to me. Maybe if Buerkle goes down with Slaughter (quite possible), in an ensuing bi-partisan gerrymander after the election (I would not count that out depending on what happens), the two CD's can then do a precinct exchange - just in the reverse direction of what might have happened if a bi-partisan gerrymander were done this year.

The Dems probably will demand in such a deal that Israel and Lowey be shored up as part of such a deal however, assuming they both get re-elected (which of course is highly probable with Lowey, but somewhat less probable with Israel, depending on how good an opponent he gets, and how much money is dumped into the race). What happens in NY-01 might be part of the mix too.

Ah the wheels within wheels.

[Mr.Phips]

Ok, I was wrong in thinking that restoring Slaughter's district to Monroe only was painless for Dems. Too many Dems disagree.

But why are they that worried. With a D+6 the district looks secure on paper. If the problem is Slaughter, then that's an internal issue for the Dems.

The "internal problem" is that Slaughter is refusing to retire. I suspect that she can be bagged given the Pubs have such a strong candidate, and it should be a good Pub year.  The problem is then trying to hold it when the Dems come up with a much better opponent. It will be a tough call given that how much money the RNC and the PACS and so forth want to spend on this race given that it seems to me. Maybe if Buerkle goes down with Slaughter (quite possible), in an ensuing bi-partisan gerrymander after the election (I would not count that out depending on what happens), the two CD's can then do a precinct exchange - just in the reverse direction of what might have happened if a bi-partisan gerrymander were done this year.

The Dems probably will demand in such a deal that Israel and Lowey be shored up as part of such a deal however, assuming they both get re-elected (which of course is highly probable with Lowey, but somewhat less probable with Israel, depending on how good an opponent he gets, and how much money is dumped into the race). What happens in NY-01 might be part of the mix too.

Ah the wheels within wheels.

A good Republican year?  If Obama wins, I doubt it will be a good Republican year. 

[Gravis Marketing]

A good Republican year?  If Obama wins, I doubt it will be a good Republican year. 

Yeah... I'm assuming either evenly balanced or slightly Dem year, which means some Republican losses but continued control of the House.

[Mr.Phips]

A good Republican year?  If Obama wins, I doubt it will be a good Republican year. 

Yeah... I'm assuming either evenly balanced or slightly Dem year, which means some Republican losses but continued control of the House.

Im expecting the House to be around 225-210. 

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

If I were a Republican strategist, I'd be arguing that Slaughter isn't worth it. First of all you still have to consider any opponent's going to need about 1/6 of Obama voters while keeping the Tea Party people who already aren't happy about Romney satisfied. Not easy to do simply on the "old and in office too long" way of thinking, it didn't even work against Kanjorski without a GOP wave and he had corruption issues on top of that. More like a recipe for Slaughter to end up with only 53-54%, which might finally convince her to retire. But that just means a new fresh Dem takes the seat. And even if they manage to pull it off, the seat is gone as soon as the Dems have a good year again. There's plenty of vulnerable GOP incumbents who are more in need of that money, including ones in the same state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

[Torie]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

It is animated by my low opinion of Slaughter. We shall see.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

For what it's worth, I think that there are a lot of intangible factors in the new district that heavily favor Maggie Brooks. Torie's perspective is similar to that of many local figures, as far as I can tell.

[krazen1211]

Does anyone have a close up comparison between Slaughter's 1988 district and the 2012 district and how much additional territory is in the current one?

[patrick1]

Does anyone have a close up comparison between Slaughter's 1988 district and the 2012 district and how much additional territory is in the current one?

This has highlights by color and allows you to zoom in and out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html?ref=reapportionment

Edit, sorry missed 1988. Nope.

[krazen1211]

Yeah I have the 1992 district.

http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/maps/1992cong/c028.pdf

This is a 62% Obama district today that has ~598k people; it had ~580k in 1992.

http://tinypic.com/r/2n1evjc/5


Teal is the 1992 district, grey is the territory added to form the 2012 district. That territory is 51% McCain.

[Torie]

Does anyone have a close up comparison between Slaughter's 1988 district and the 2012 district and how much additional territory is in the current one?

Here is the 1988 CD, old NY-30, although I think a part of the city of Rochester itself was excised from it, but from the tiny map I have in my 1990 almanac, I am not sure, and have no way of drawing the boundary in the city of Rochester anyway. The CD went 54% to 45% for Bush pere in 1988, per the almanac stats.  Back then Slaughter was viewed as a superstar believe it or not. How times have changed. And as you can further see New York has viewed gerrymandering as an exercise in cutting edge abstract art for a very long time indeed. This map was from a Pub gerrymander, and this CD was drawn for Barber Conable, who then retired in 1984. He successor was a Pub named Fred Eckert, whom Slaughter beat in 1986 51%-49% due to his suck personality and political skills.

And there you have it!

[cinyc]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

Torie's exuberance is far from irrational.  No New York Congressman squawked louder about the new lines than Slaughter, even getting Nancy Pelosi in on the act.  Had she not done so, I'd agree with your assessment.  But Slaughter must know something, like how a countywide official elected under pretty much the same lines as the CD might give her a run for her money, enough so that she'd actually have to actively campaign - a process with which she is sorely out of practice for at least the last decade due to gerrymandering.  Beware of candidates who haven't had to run in a competitive race for a while.  They sometimes implode.

[BigSkyBob]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.

Democrats already had their six year itch and more in 2010.  With Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate and the economy likely being pretty good, 2014 should be a pretty neutral year. 

[Vasall des Midas]

And as you can further see New York has viewed gerrymandering as an exercise in cutting edge abstract art for a very long time indeed. This map was from a Pub gerrymander

Yeah, that's pretty obvious. The most Democratic non-Rochester bits of Monroe are excised.

[Invisible Obama]

Brooks margin as county executive fell in 2011, while she still won comfortably, it was reduced. Now, those are low turnout elections, where voters vote different based on local issues and issues that don't translate above that local level. She'll most likely do as well as Kay Barnes did in MO-6, a popular local official doing poorly in a congressional race. Republicans didn't unseat any Democratic incumbents in D+6 seats in 2010, it's hard to see how they do so in a presidential year.

[BigSkyBob]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.

Democrats already had their six year itch and more in 2010.  With Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate and the economy likely being pretty good, 2014 should be a pretty neutral year. 

If Obama is reelected, and the economy weakens again, we could see a result similiar to 1958 in the Senate.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.

People who live in glass houses ought not throw stones:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly-Final-Race-Rankings

I don't see how partisan optimism has altered his judgment any more than partisan optimism altered your judgment about Virginia. The generic ballots were pointing to a GOP blowout in the House yet you only listed one Democratic incumbent as being in less than a toss-up race!

Brooks is in a good position. If Obama carries Slaughter home, Slaughter will have to face the six-year itch. If she retires after another term, Brooks has the name-recognition advantage and organization advantages in the open seat race. If Obama losses, Brooks could beat her this election. Slaughter might thread the needle of beating Brooks, with Obama losing nationally.

Frankly, if I were a Democrat I'd want her to retire this year.

Democrats already had their six year itch and more in 2010.  With Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate and the economy likely being pretty good, 2014 should be a pretty neutral year. 

If Obama is reelected, and the economy weakens again, we could see a result similiar to 1958 in the Senate.

The yield curve is saying that the economy is going to be pretty strong until at least 2015.  Plus, Demcorats will have an unpopular, obstructionist Congress to run against in 2014, which Republicans didnt have in 1958.  Republicans are NOT picking up 13 seats in the Senate.  The most is maybe 6-7. 

[krazen1211]

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/gop_dem_olition_man_in_senate_IKWFk2lNIO5jUoqYK9KkwN

Some key Senate Democrats, shocked by the apparent victory of Republican David Storobin in last week’s special election in Brooklyn, are privately conceding they have little chance of retaking control of the Senate in November.