US House Redistricting: New York

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem is giving Syracuse to Owens is just asking for him to be primaried. Of course, its possible nobody cares about him.

Owens can just move left like Gillibrand did. She went from the Blue Dogs to like the third or so most liberal member of the Senate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He did something pretty stupid by mentioning that he might vote for Boehner after the election. But he ended up voting for Pelosi anyway which should make that a moot issue. What I don't get is why'd he even mention that, it's obvious he was never planning on voting for anyone besides Pelosi.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Velazquez lives in west Brooklyn, somewhere in the northern part of the western portion here, like around the I-278/I-478 nexus.



But I am just basing that off something I read on another blog at sometime. If true that would put her outside of the seat Lewis drew of course and in the new White Brooklyn seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

Oh so that's Williamsburg? Puerto Ricans live there too? It's not just scene kids?

Of course, putting Weiner into the NE Queens district would not actually harm the logic of the map in any way - might even improve it, actually, to switch what's now the northwestern 5th and southeastern 7th. I just happen to have drawn it this way before looking up where he lives, and found it intellectually dishonest to change it after that.

Weiner probably wouldn't mind that, as the guy only cares about his seat as a stepping stone to being mayor of NYC (basically his dream since childhood.) So getting more territory and becoming more well known would boost his chances there. I'm already willing to bet that he'll be the next mayor anyway though since I can't see even Bloomberg having the chutzpah to run for a fourth term, and based on the 2009 results he'd probably lose even if he did.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The LES as a whole has never been solidly anything. Except working class, I suppose.

Uh wow. It's just so hard to imagine any part of Manhattan as ever being working class. It's kind of like how even if McDowell County, West Virginia was posh at one time, it still seems bizarre.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When I think of working class, I don't think of the projects or slums. I'm talking more about like where Keystone Phil lives or the part of Boston in The Town (minus the bank robbers).

Also, Park Slope was never Hispanic. It was Italian, then blacks started moving in in the 1960s (but were never more than 20% or so), then gentrification started in the 1970s and it became one of Brooklyn's nicest neighborhoods by 1990.

That provides a lot of context to a certain scene in The Squid and the Whale.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lunar if you have not seen The Squid and the Whale yet you deserve to be evicted.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Did McCain actually win the white vote in Brooklyn?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Did McCain actually win the white vote in Brooklyn?

*Almost* certain he didn't.

You wouldn't think so. But he got just short of 20%. Brooklyn is about 37% white, 33% black, 9.5% Asian and 20% Hispanic. 20% is more than half of 37%, but when you consider he got a non-negligable percentage of the Asian vote and that the Hispanic turnout isn't as high (though certainly higher than most places as the Hispanics are mostly Puerto Rican I believe and thus all are US citizens.) it does seem unlikely. But the fact that Obama's percentage is just in the 50s itself sounds quite odd.

Of course the white vote in Brooklyn itself is so diverse the fact is only trivial, comparing the white vote in Williamsburg and Park Slope to Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst is completely pointless.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think the Democrats would ever agree to screw over Syracuse like that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hikind is a DINO though, in the most literal definition of the word. He's probably the most right wing member of the Assembly. He is only a Democrat because of NYC local politics, he's very socially conservative and frequently endorses Republicans (including McCain and Bush both times). But that isn't the most odious thing about him, he's a far right fascist who is comparable to Pakistani MPs in the Osama bin Laden-defending parties. He may be a DINO but he doesn't fit the GOP either, he'd need to join to something like Avigdor Lieberman's party.

The GOP do more than just not seriously challenge him, they also run (legal due to NY's fusion system.) The Conservative Party is frequently the only challenger he has, and whoever their candidate is would easily get my vote. I'd even vote for a non-fascist Republican over him. He is a truly a vile individual. Even the vast majority of American Jews would find him repulsive (Think Meir Kahane.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.

He would love them.

http://forward.com/articles/137094/

Wow that guy is disgusting. Canadians should be really offended.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh and actually looking at precincts, damn we all have the stereotypes about the white parts of Williamsburg and Park Slope but if the numbers are really like this I would love to force BushOklahoma to live there for a year!

New York will probably never have a gay marriage referendum, but it'd be fun to watch some precincts vote >90% in favor of gay marriage which would obviously be happening here (granted that no doubt already happened in some San Francisco precincts.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think it's just an academic exercise.

BTW I'm just tweaking my final map now, but why was there such controversy over shoring up Hochul? It's quite easy with just the northern fourth of Buffalo with Higgins taking the rest. Her seat would basically be the one represented by John LaFalce for so long with the bit of Buffalo added. Both Buffalo seats are about 54% Obama, which has been fine for Higgins so far and should be fine for Hochul as long as she isn't stupid (which she hasn't been to even win that seat to begin with.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uh in exchange for two districts the Democrats "might" win Rangel's super-safe seat is lost. Even if the Democrats want to get rid of Rangel he can be easily replaced with another Democrat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I should note there isn't many options for eliminating an upstate Democrat. The upstate Democrats are Hochul, Higgins, Owens, Slaughter, Tonko and perhaps Hinchey.

Higgins' seat obviously can't be eliminated. You need a Democratic seat in Buffalo.
Slaughter will lose the earmuffs, but will just get a Democratic seat in Monroe county. Can't be eliminated.
Owens can't be eliminated because of geography.
Tonko's seat would be easy to carve up, but neighboring Republicans would definitely NOT want that. Not going to happen.
Hinchey's seat isn't really upstate, but there's a reason it crawls into upstate like that, and no Republicans are going to want the areas it takes in.

So that leaves Hochul as the only real eliminatable upstate Democrat, and to actually eliminate her seat (not just leave it as is to where she could easily lose in the future which is different) requires some pretty funky lines and may require something as bad the earmuffs, like a Buffalo to Syracuse district. A district was already lost in that area last time (John LaFalce's old seat) too.

NY-24 is the most logical and easiest upstate seat to eliminate it. Trash it and Weiner's seat and you have a "fair" loss of seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2 and 4 in that map are obviously gerrymandered, and while 12 looks OK that's only because it's mostly water.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's pretty easy to draw 2 Republican NYC seats, that why Dems draw such hideously scrambled lines around Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens, to disperse the strongly Republican south Brooklyn area

Sorry, but do you know what you're talking about?  The last round of redistricting had a Republican Governor and a Republican State Senate.

If the Dems could draw the Congressional map like they drew the Assembly map that year, the Congressional map could easily have zero Republican NYC seats by connecting Staten Island to Manhattan instead of Brooklyn.

NYC is a convoluted mess at the Congressional level, like all of New York State, due to incumbent protection gerrymandering mixing with VRA majority-minority districts, and the negative space created by those districts.

VRA is racially divisive, and I don't agree with that.  That's why I paid no attention to racial communities when I drew my NYC map.  One man, one vote.  Period

LOL. A brief look at the Long Island districts clearly disproves that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only reason 2 is a Republican district is because of the appendage from 1 to remove a Hispanic area, and 4 is because of the black area being removed by 11.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only reason 2 is a Republican district is because of the appendage from 1 to remove a Hispanic area, and 4 is because of the black area being removed by 11.

No doubt 2 and 4 would not be Republican if Democratic areas were added to them.

Again, why are the lines self-evident proof that race, not partisan results, were the primary factor in drawing them?

So if they were drawn on a partisan basis, they're a gerrymander, despite his claim that a non-gerrymandered map would give the Republicans 4 seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well Pat Quinn also said that he wanted a fair map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just because Torie dislikes him doesn't mean the GOP would be willing to throw King under the bus (I must note he is by far the most senior Republican in New York's delegation.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

that's not even close to true (any district that has Borough Park and Greenwich Village is by far the most gerrymandered district in the country)

Haha.

Even if you want to maintain partisan outrage, you can still look at the North Carolina and Maryland maps to see how laughable this statement is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You don't need Ithaca to boost NY-26. You just have to end the earmuffs, which is probably happening no matter what, since the main purpose of it wasn't to prop up Slaughter who was never in danger but that Quinn guy in Buffalo. So you can give the black part of Buffalo to Hochul (or Higgins and let Hochul take some white parts of Buffalo) and end up with two ~54-55% Obama districts, which is fine for that part of the state.