US House Redistricting: New York

[Lunar]

Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001?  

Torie, New York is about many different moving gears.  In 2001, you had Assembly Democrats, Senate Republicans, and a Republican Governor.  They were free to strike a deal that would disadvantage the other gears on the board.

In 2010, there's enough of a redistricting reform force at work that nothing outrageously crazy gerrymander-wise is going to be passed (outside of what already exists).  The New York Republicans don't have very solid control over the Senate either, so their own piece on the board is weak.

[Lunar]

So who is the biggest loser of today's numbers?  I nominate Russ Carnahan. 

Some NYC area Dem rep is also royally f-ed today.  Which one do you think it will be?  Most likely Ackerman, Maloney or Crowley, based on previous talk.

You think the chairman of the Queens Democratic Party could be chopped?  Crowley isn't exactly on a low, having Liu on the upswing and knocking out Padavan.

[Lunar]

That's a bit silly to assume Owens would have a primary and would want a more Republican district.  It's almost always easier for an incumbent to win a primary than a general election (with some recent exceptions like Murkowski).  What, six House Democrats in New York lost their general election contests in 2010?  How many lost primaries?

He voted for health care reform and is in no way despised by liberals.

[Lunar]

it's obvious he was never planning on voting for anyone besides Pelosi.

Yeah, that obviousness is the key part.  I can't see labor & liberals trying to fund a primary against Owens over that one incident because it was never really in doubt.  And most people probably don't care.

[Lunar]

Wow, looking at a list of New York's most populous cities, it's impressive that many of NYC's neighborhoods would place well into the top 6 (i.e. Flushing, my own Sunset Park) etcetc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York#Cities

And even more would place in the top 7.  I wonder how some high growth neighborhoods in NYC will fair compared to that list of cities once the census information is complete.

None of those neighborhoods could hold up against a similar list of the most populous Californian cities (the other state I have familiarity with).

[Lunar]

Wow, looking at a list of New York's most populous cities, it's impressive that many of NYC's neighborhoods would place well into the top 6 (i.e. Flushing, my own Sunset Park) etcetc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York#Cities

And even more would place in the top 7.  I wonder how some high growth neighborhoods in NYC will fair compared to that list of cities once the census information is complete.

None of those neighborhoods could hold up against a similar list of the most populous Californian cities (the other state I have familiarity with).

Even larger when you consider that Sunset Park was until recently (I think around the early 1960's with completion of Gowanus/BQE) considered part of Bay Ridge.

The other cities in New York have been bleeding population for decades. They have more in common with Rust belt than SE part of the state. It is crazy when you think Buffalo was once in the top ten largest cities.

Yup. Buffalo now has the distinction of being one of the few cities that now has less than half the population it once did, a distinction it shares with only Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis.

I did a map of population growth and decline in New York at one point. Outside of Ithaca, it's a sea of red Upstate.

8th most populous city in the country to 70th.  Ouch.

[Lunar]

Here's Long Island (ignore Queens). Pete King's district snakes around to be as R as possible while shoring up the other three incumbents. Ackerman is tossed out.

Bishop: 57% Obama
Israel: 55% Obama (Ackerman is here, too)
King: 56% McCain
McCarthy: 60% Obama

The map contains some water connections without roads, but New York has been perfectly amenable to those in the past, so I am assuming they are fine.

indeed

[Lunar]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties. 

[Lunar]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties.  

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

Fair enough points, we'll see, but anything that strengthens Bishop could be a tough pill for them to swallow after the closeness of 2010.  

Also: the Senate Republicans are very region-obsessed I've noticed lately, complaining how the Democratic Party is controlled by NYC.  Would they approve a plan that had two districts eliminated [mostly] outside of NYC?  

Dean Skelos won't be in control, but it would seem that any redistricting plan would need to avoid any perceived insults.

[Lunar]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

[Lunar]

Yeah I think she's in Williamsburg somewhere

Oh so that's Williamsburg? Puerto Ricans live there too? It's not just scene kids?

I mean, it's a fairly large neighborhood geographically.  There's a huge Hasidic portion of Williamsburg too.

The Lower East Side is another area that used to be solidly Puerto Rican before the scene kids started moving in.

[Lunar]

The LES as a whole has never been solidly anything. Except working class, I suppose.

Yeah, poor descriptor.  "much more" is what I meant, I suppose

[Lunar]

The LES as a whole has never been solidly anything. Except working class, I suppose.

Uh wow. It's just so hard to imagine any part of Manhattan as ever being working class. It's kind of like how even if McDowell County, West Virginia was posh at one time, it still seems bizarre.

I mean, there're still projects in Manhattan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Housing_Authority#Manhattan_.28Neighborhood.29

[Lunar]

It's still ruhlly Polish though if you hop off at Nassau Station at least.

I'm starting to work out a theory that Spanish neighborhoods get gentrified the most: LES, Park Slope, Williamsburg most notably to my untrained eye, but also probably Spanish Harlem & Bushwick. African-American neighborhoods less so: Harlem & Clinton Hill?

[Lunar]

Fair enough re: Prospect Heights.  And honestly it could have to do with subway commute locations and coincidence more than anything else.  

Or it could be lower crime rates and more bustling small businesses lining the streets in certain areas, I'm not really sure, I haven't done the research and I have't lived here long enough.  

[Lunar]

After all, South Harlem (the rectangle from 125th to CPN and FDB to Lenox) has been gentrifying significantly faster than East Harlem.

True, but that could be Columbia, right?  I've never even been up there.

[Lunar]

Also, Park Slope was never Hispanic. It was Italian, then blacks started moving in in the 1960s (but were never more than 20% or so), then gentrification started in the 1970s and it became one of Brooklyn's nicest neighborhoods by 1990.

Well, South Park Slope at least

[Lunar]

I've seen Velasquez before (more than once) in the fanciest restaurants in my neighborhood.  Doubt she lives here though.

Well, I'm pretty sure I've ready that she's from Williamsburg, so she might well be in walking distance to the nicer restaurants around Greenpoint.

I visited a friend four or five times up by the Nassau st. station, and I was impressed by how very Polish it still was, every single bar and shop around there seemed to be Polish

[Lunar]

I thought from your sentence structure you were implying you live in Greenpoint.  The only other place I can think of where there are Polish restaurants is across the way in Williamsburg

[Lunar]

I thought from your sentence structure you were implying you live in Greenpoint.  The only other place I can think of where there are Polish restaurants is across the way in Williamsburg

You don't know Brooklyn well enough then...

omg is it Brooklyn Heights?

[Lunar]

I have a hard time believing urban immigrants were accurately counted.  I bet there's probably more new immigrants on a single tract or two in Flushing than foreclosed homes in all of Queens.

[Lunar]

http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map?view=PopChangeView&lat=40.7606&lng=-73.974&l=14

NYT's beautiful map lets you sort by all the racial characteristics

[Lunar]

Of course, my only point was that the huge immigrant surge almost certainly counter-balances whatever population loss has occurred.  Unlike Nevada or other parts of the country, there aren't neighborhoods in NYC filled with vacant lots. 

[Lunar]

Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.

He would love them.

http://forward.com/articles/137094/

[Lunar]

Staten Island's Hasid population is also growing as many are priced out Boro Park in Brooklyn and seek cheaper housing elsewhere