US House Redistricting: New York

[Torie]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.

[Torie]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals

What sordid little district deals in NYC?

I really don't see this.

The Dems would lose the ability to carve up the Dem seats (and who gets knocked out) in NYC and environs in a way that suits them, and would lose Hinchey (his district is ludicrously erose), whom the Assembly Speaker has a crush on, for some inexplicable reason. Is that really all worth just one seat for them?  Are they really that desperate to reduce the GOP NY delegation from 8 to 7, in order to have the court mess with their 18 seats remaining seats ?  I suspect not. The GOP should play the tractor game. If nothing else, it would be fun to watch. Last time, the parties did deadlock, and after they saw the court map, they then cut a deal, making safe those who felt too exposed per the court map,  and so that Assembly Speaker Silver could keep his pet Hinchey ensconced in a snake district. Hinchey despite that did not win by much this time.

So call it the Hinchey card if you want that will be played, along with the other concern about losing the ability to carve up the Dem spoils, that I think the Dems would have. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered.

[Torie]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.

I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.

Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001? 

[Torie]

I know I seem obnoxious, opining about NY, when we have some experts here on NY. We shall see. It should be fun.

[Torie]

Torie, the Republicans don't want Hinchey's district carved up. Look at where Ithaca and Binghamton go (students up the wazoo and the people who love them) if that district goes.

Ithaca could be appended to Rochester. As to a court drawing, it would be fun to see if the court map could be found on the internet. I don't recall it put any upstate Pubbie at any great risk, irrespective of where Ithaca was.

[Torie]

The legendary Bay Ridge in Brooklyn just isn't as Pubbie as it used to be I guess, is it, Muon2?

[Torie]

Verily, that deal makes a lot of sense to me. I think I would sign off on that as a Pubbie.

[Torie]

I thought from your sentence structure you were implying you live in Greenpoint.  The only other place I can think of where there are Polish restaurants is across the way in Williamsburg

You don't know Brooklyn well enough then...

omg is it Brooklyn Heights?

Remember he's a lawyer, Lunar. 

[Torie]

Slaughter's CD takes in the black part of the city of Buffalo in Erie County.

[Torie]

How much time did it take you to figure out how to draw that thing, Lewis? 

[Torie]

Well, if Turner bags Weprin, and assuming the Pubbies are willing to push NY-03 into the lean GOP column from reasonably safe, and make that worthless creature and one-time IRA symp Peter King work harder, if I were the NY Pubbies, I would drive a hard bargain with the Dems. The map below was drawn without my ever looking at partisan numbers until it was finished. It is the map that I think a court might well draw. Given the VRA, it sort of draws itself, with NY-12 and NY-09 becoming filler CD's stuck between the minority CD's. NY-04 disappears; good bye Carolyn McCarthy, the lady who jump started her career running against guns, and has had an undistinguished career ever since.

The Dem margin in NY-12 collapses (but still safe Dem), Ackerman in NY-05 now has a lean Dem CD, and will have to really sweat to hold on to it, or become more moderate, and yes, NY-09 becomes a reasonably safe GOP district. As a lagniappe for the Pubbies, NY-02 changes from lean Dem to a true toss up CD. Crowley (NY-07) and Velazquez (NY-12) will need to swap CD's.  I did everything possible to get NY-06 to 50% black VAP, but after doing everything, the best I could do was 49.7% black VAP, so that should hold up. There are no more blacks in the neighborhood.
 
It is all a really beautiful thing really. On a really good day, the Pubbies could have a six pack representing Long Island and NYC.  Imagine that!  Sure if the courts draw the lines, the Pubbies will lose 1 or 2 CD's upstate (but Hinckley [Hinchey] with his ludicrous CD which was gerrymandered for him might be in serious trouble as well), but it all seems well worth it to me.

The bottom line is that the VRA really F's - and F's bad, the Dems in the Big Apple metro area; that and the geography of the territory, which limits were CD's can go, without looking ridiculous. I didn't even look at the old map. It was and is just an erose mess and deserves to be thrown into the garbage, never to be seen again.

It is interesting that Charlie Rangel's CD (NY-15) will end up being only about 25% black. It won't be any higher, because they are no blacks nearby (or otherwise available) for that CD to reach out and pick up. Rather the CD needs to pick up more of the white upper west side. Meanwhile Harlem itself is steadily bleaching towards white.  The real estate is just too valuable.

[Torie]

Don't you mean, "Hinchey"?

Ya, him. Hinckley (sp) gained fame in another venue.  

[Torie]

I highly doubt a court would draw a 9th district like that. Rest of it looks more or less reasonable.

NY-09 is boxed between geography and minority CD's. To my mind, there is nowhere else it can go.  You can change it some, but it will dilute the black percentage in NY-10 or NY-11.  It tracks the Brooklyn-Queens line to the east of NY-10. On its east side next to NY-06, that line is defined by trying to max the black percentage in NY-06, which is still below 50% as it is. What does your version look like, sbane? Can you post it?

[Torie]

Interesting map Sbane. That bifurcation of NY-03 however is a bit radical, and it looks like you didn't quite follow county, borough and city lines quite as much. In any event, the Pubbies would be fools to give away a shot for another seat in Brooklyn. It is more an accident of geography given the polarized ethnic voting patterns, and where the blacks and Hispanics live, and all the water around, but there you go.

[Torie]

I don't think the law would require a 50% black VAP NY-06 given the non voting Hispanics and Asians in it, and because it requires pawing through some white neighborhoods to get to blacks ones, and so forth.  49.7% black VAP should certainly be sufficient to get a black elected there.

[Torie]

In the meantime, by making NY-06 a bit more erose, I got it up to 50% black VAP (finally!), which changed the numbers a bit in 6 other CD's, including making NY-03 a tad more GOP, and NY-09 discernibly more GOP. NY-05 gets a couple of tenths of a point more Dem. That is how the cookie crumbled.

As to upstate, I just blew up the old map that had next to nothing to recommend it, and started over. There will be some highly competitive CD's up there. Scozzafava, Gibson and Hinchey are all put under more pressure, particularly Hinchey who I don't think could survive. Buerkle (R) joins McCarthy as having no CD to run in really. I guess she could fight it out with Scozzafava in a primary to see who faces a Dem in a marginal CD, with a slight Dem tilt.

So with a court map as I drew it, the GOP gets NY-08 (formerly NY-09), one Dem and one GOP CD disappear, and Ackerman (D) gets but a lean DEM CD, along with King (R). Other CD's are pushed into the weak safe category. The Dem who won that special election in the most GOP CD in the state in the lower tier counties of upstate NY and wrapping around Rochester to the west (that big red CD) is put under more pressure too. He's probably toast. Not bad. Oh, Louise Slaughter will have to act less crazy up there in Rochester, or she might be gone too.





And here is an upstate map that shows the county chops, which were minimized:

[Torie]

Ah, Torie, last I checked Scozzafava isn't in Congress, nor will she be anytime soon.

All these Newbies. I just get so confused, and I even googled it. But I was impaired. 

[Torie]

Just because Torie dislikes him doesn't mean the GOP would be willing to throw King under the bus (I must note he is by far the most senior Republican in New York's delegation.)

It depends on how much the Pubbies are willing to pay to prop up King. Sure, if they want to play the prop up Israel, and maybe Ackerman, in exchange for bleaching out King's CD some more game, OK. If the price is to give up a new GOP seat in Brooklyn, particularly one held by a newly elected Turner, that is just dumb.

If I were the NY Pubbies, I would just give the Dems my map, and say here is what we think is the default option. This is "the court" on which we are going to play. Deal with it.

I fixed my chart above btw, making it even more complicated and confusing.   I estimate that a court drawn map will cause the Dems to absorb net both the seats lost to NY, with the Pubbies breaking even. Or depending on how you view it,  the Pubbies lose a half seat from redistricting if you view NY-26 as unaffected by redistricting, but given that Hochul remains in danger since she was not helped enough by the new lines, the Pubs still come out even.

[Torie]

No, just 12 years old or fairly insular and not that bright.

I don't see how anyone can doubt he's from the place and community he posts about.

I'm not from Brooklyn

This sort of stuff belongs in the US Discussion Board. That is where  all this backbiting should go. That is why we have two moderators there to rather fruitlessly try to herd the feral cats. Muon2 wants his board to stay on topic. And while he does not give out death points, he is not shy about deleting posts.

[Torie]

It is probably due to the VRA and for partisan reasons, not for Orthodox Jew qua Orthodox Jew reasons don't you think? 

[Torie]

in regards to the voting rights act
there are plenty of ways to do it with out getting in trouble with the voting rights act.
There is no excuse for Nadler being in Borough Park and Flatbush.

in regards to the partisan I guess gerrymandering black areas during Jim Crow wasn't racist it was partisan politics.

To make your case, you would need to do it on an individual district basis (with maps), and show that there are no reasonable motives other than animus against Orthodox Jews as to why the lines were drawn the way they were drawn. The Dems have controlled state assembly seat redistricting since rocks cooled, and of course are trying to max their numbers, while hewing to the VRA, just the way the Pubs have done for the NY state senate.

[Torie]

NY Jew, you would need to put up maps.  I don't know any of this obviously. Anyway, hearing what you said, and examining again my lines in Brooklyn and parts of Queens, and bearing in mind the VRA, I jiggled them a bit. NY-08 now becomes the most GOP CD in the state. One of the reasons I did it, is that in my judgment, Park Slope fits better with lower Manhattan (NY-07), then Sunset Park does, so Sunset Park goes into NY-10, and it loses Park Slope (except for some somewhat black precincts), to NY-07.  (The way I drew the lines in Sunset Park between NY-12 and NY-10 is driven by trying to keep the rather large Asian community (where are they from I wonder?) in the hood as much as possible together with Asians in some adjacent areas, and in NY-12;  NY-10 gets mostly the Hispanics in Sunset Park, who maybe work the docks perhaps.) NY-12 gets a bit more Dem because of the few precincts it  needs to take in Sunset Park, while losing much of Bensonhurst to NY-08. I think the map looks better. The parks in the area help to define the lines along with the Queens-Brooklyn border on the east. The rather jagged line between NY-08 and NY-10 on NY-10's southwest side is driven by black precinct percentages. They fall off like a cliff as one moves to the SW.

I also cleaned up NY-06, and to a lessor extent NY-09 and NY-10.  They needed a bit of work. I think they look better now, and the minority percentages are upped a bit. I also tried to cut back the jut of NY-08 up to the north a bit to the extent I could, given other constraints, that I think a court might well care about.

I must say that this part of the world is really racially segregated. It's not like SoCal at all. Flatbush (the neighborhood in which my Dad was born (yes 100 years ago Flatbush had a considerable number of WASPS in it - it was an exurb), and to which I must go someday to see the home in which he lived until they ran out of money in 1918) I see has very few whites in it these days. Since the housing stock is still pretty good (at least the part my Dad lived in), that is good in the sense that it suggests a fair number of blacks have entered the lower middle class.

[Torie]

NY Jew, you would need to put up maps.  /Screenshot2011-09-11at25007PM.png[/img]

how do I do that and what map do you want to see

You need to create a link to the maps that you want that make your case. If you tell me where the maps are, and which ones you want, I will put them up for you. The issue is what were the motives for the way the maps were created. Was it just due to Orthodox Jew animus, or can it be explained by other motives? The maps that you think show animus, without any other reasonable explanation, are the maps that you want put up I would think.

[Torie]

NY Jew, you would need to put up maps.  /Screenshot2011-09-11at25007PM.png[/img]

how do I do that and what map do you want to see

Here's the map which you requested that I put up:

[Torie]

Where did Velazquez' district go, Torie?

NY-06. It's 52.7% Hispanic. Crowley (now NY-11) and Velaquez need to swap CD's.  Nice try.  

The courts need to draw the lines. It's a beautiful thing.