US House Redistricting: New York

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's pretty easy to carve up one district held by a Republican and make all the remaining upstate districts pretty safe for their current occupant. I just did a map of upstate New York that eliminates NY-20 and makes every district except for NY-23 pretty safe (my definition of "pretty safe" is at least 59% Obama for the Dems, and at least a 5-point McCain margin for the Republicans), NY-23 being 54-45 Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Owens didn't have a primary either; he was selected by the party to run in the 2009 special. He was even a registered independent at the time.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, with the Chris Lee thing, I decided to do a map of upstate New York that eliminated NY-26.





Red - Tom Reed (R) lives here; 53-46 McCain, a safe Republican district.
Blue - Brian Higgins (D) gets Buffalo and Niagara Falls; it's 63-35 Obama.
Green - Louise Slaughter (D) gets nearly all of Monroe County; her old district was around 69-30 Obama, this drops it down to 59-40 Obama.
Purple - Ann Marie Buerkle (R) and probably whoever wins the special for NY-26 would go here. It takes in about half of Syracuse and stretches all the way to the Buffalo suburbs. 50-48 McCain.
Teal - Richard Hanna (R) has a district that takes in the other half of Syracuse, Oneida County, and some surrounding territory. It's 51-48 Obama, which is the same as it was before.
Grey - Bill Owens (D) gets a slightly more favorable district; it's 54-45 Obama now.
Light Purple - Paul Tonko (D) gets a slightly less favorable district, though it only drops down 1 point to 57-41 Obama.
Sky Blue - Chris Gibson (R) has a district that went 50-49 for McCain.
Yellow - The Maurice Hinchey (D) gerrymander remains; 59-39 Obama.
Magenta - Nan Hayworth (R) also gets a 50-49 McCain district.
Light Green - Nita Lowey (D) gets a safe district that takes in most of Westchester; 63-36 Obama.
Very light purple - Eliot Engel (D) has a super-safe district since it's mostly in NYC. 78-22 Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So all the talk of a potential Hochul win in NY-26 got me thinking as to how to give her a winnable district for 2012. And I never miss an opportunity to tinker with upstate New York. I drew the districts with the 2010 census numbers, then re-drew them in another browser with the old numbers so I could get the Obama/McCain totals (they're not exactly the same, since the 2008 data is in a shapefile that doesn't split smaller townships, but pretty close).



Blue - Brian Higgins has to stay put for the next decade for this map to work. He's locked down his district; all I did was pull in some not terrible parts of Cattaugurus County and a little more of Erie County. Remains unchanged at 54-44 Obama.
Green - Hochul winning would put her in this district, which takes all of the non-Erie parts of the Slaughtermander. Goes all the way from 52-46 McCain to 56-43 Obama.
Red - Tom Reed gets the safest Republican district in the state, eating up all the Republican parts of NY-26. Goes from 51-48 McCain to 55-43 McCain.
Purple - Slaughter gets a new gerrymander that picks up Auburn, Geneva, and Geneseo. Drops from 69-30 Obama down to 60-38 Obama, but that should be enough to keep it in Democratic hands.
Teal - NY-24 and NY-25 get combined, so Hanna and Buerkle duke it out here; Syracuse is pulled out of the district to help out Bill Owens. Goes from 51-48 Obama (for NY-24) or 56-43 Obama (for NY-25) to 50-49 Obama.
Yellow - Bill Owens adds Syracuse to his district and drops some Republican counties, and should be safe. Goes from 52-47 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Light Purple - Tonko's Albany-based district doesn't change a whole lot, it just stretches north instead of west now. Goes from 58-40 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Grey - A sprawling Republican district for Chris Gibson; goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-48 McCain.
Sky Blue - The Hincheymander remains, with a little more territory added. Doesn't change, still 59-39 Obama.
Magenta - Nan Hayworth has the northern borders of her district expanded a bit, and the Westchester portion contracted a bit. Goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-49 Obama.
Light Green - Nita Lowey retains a Westchester district, and it goes from 62-38 Obama to 63-37 Obama.
Light Purple (Rockland/Bronx) - Eliot Engel's district shifts upwards a bit to the suburbs, but remains safe Dem; goes from 72-28 Obama to 66-34 Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tonko lives in Amsterdam, which your NY-21 does not reach.

Huh, I could have sworn he lived in Albany. Either way, it was easy to fix, and didn't change the numbers any.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So all the talk of a potential Hochul win in NY-26 got me thinking as to how to give her a winnable district for 2012. And I never miss an opportunity to tinker with upstate New York. I drew the districts with the 2010 census numbers, then re-drew them in another browser with the old numbers so I could get the Obama/McCain totals (they're not exactly the same, since the 2008 data is in a shapefile that doesn't split smaller townships, but pretty close).



Blue - Brian Higgins has to stay put for the next decade for this map to work. He's locked down his district; all I did was pull in some not terrible parts of Cattaugurus County and a little more of Erie County. Remains unchanged at 54-44 Obama.
Green - Hochul winning would put her in this district, which takes all of the non-Erie parts of the Slaughtermander. Goes all the way from 52-46 McCain to 56-43 Obama.
Red - Tom Reed gets the safest Republican district in the state, eating up all the Republican parts of NY-26. Goes from 51-48 McCain to 55-43 McCain.
Purple - Slaughter gets a new gerrymander that picks up Auburn, Geneva, and Geneseo. Drops from 69-30 Obama down to 60-38 Obama, but that should be enough to keep it in Democratic hands.
Teal - NY-24 and NY-25 get combined, so Hanna and Buerkle duke it out here; Syracuse is pulled out of the district to help out Bill Owens. Goes from 51-48 Obama (for NY-24) or 56-43 Obama (for NY-25) to 50-49 Obama.
Yellow - Bill Owens adds Syracuse to his district and drops some Republican counties, and should be safe. Goes from 52-47 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Light Purple - Tonko's Albany-based district doesn't change a whole lot, it just stretches north instead of west now. Goes from 58-40 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
Grey - A sprawling Republican district for Chris Gibson; goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-48 McCain.
Sky Blue - The Hincheymander remains, with a little more territory added. Doesn't change, still 59-39 Obama.
Magenta - Nan Hayworth has the northern borders of her district expanded a bit, and the Westchester portion contracted a bit. Goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-49 Obama.
Light Green - Nita Lowey retains a Westchester district, and it goes from 62-38 Obama to 63-37 Obama.
Light Purple (Rockland/Bronx) - Eliot Engel's district shifts upwards a bit to the suburbs, but remains safe Dem; goes from 72-28 Obama to 66-34 Obama.

Made another attempt at the map, and succeeded in upping the numbers for the incumbents a little bit:



Blue (Higgins) - 55-44 Obama.
Green (Hochul) - 57-42 Obama.
Yellow (Reed) - 56-43 McCain.
Purple (Slaughter) - 61-38 Obama.
Teal (Hanna/Buerkle) - 49-49 McCain.
Red (Owens) - 57-42 Obama.
Grey (Tonko) - 59-40 Obama.
Light Purple (Gibson) - 49-49 McCain.
Sky Blue (Hinchey) - 58-40 Obama.
Magenta (Hayworth) - 50-49 Obama.
Light Green (Lowey) - 64-36 Obama.
Light Purple (Engel) - 66-34 Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Weiner won Brooklyn 52-48 and Queens 65-35 last year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Andrew Cuomo says “I will veto a plan that is not independent or a plan that is partisan."

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I guess he could pull a McDonnell and pretend that only the Republican map is gerrymandered.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It isn't exactly the same, but Carl Kruger holds a State Senate district that's 55-45 McCain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dems should just let the GOP draw the state map in exchange for a Dem congress map. Don't see how they can make the senate safe in a D+10 state.

And why on earth would the GOP agree to that?

Because self-preservation trumps party loyalty.

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Numbers were crunched on DKE.

Kind of a crappy map for the Democrats. The immediate casualties are split (Hochul and the Hincheymander for the Dems, Turner and Buerkle for the Republicans), but it puts Israel and McCarthy in marginal (albeit Dem-leaning) districts. Yes, it does improve the Dem performance in most of the upstate districts held by Republicans, but it's not enough to hurt any of them except for Gibson and maybe Hayworth. Plus it doesn't help out Owens at all.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Both of those races are safe D. All they'll do is force Slaughter and Lowey to raise and spend money.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd say the biggest problem for the Monroe County Executive woman is that she can get elected in a low-turnout off-year election, but she's going to have an extra 200,000 Presidential-year voters who have never voted for or against her. Torie's acting more like redcommander with the irrational exuberance over this woman.