US House Redistricting: New York

[Sbane]

Redistricting New York just became a whole lot more fun.

[Sbane]

Redistricting New York just became a whole lot more fun.

It'll probably be some annoying incumbent protection plan thingy, though.  The districts will be removed from the obvious places, the other question, not mentioned above, is exactly how west NY will be dealt with.

They would probably eliminate NY-25, no? And keep the rest of the Republican districts leaning Republican, but gettable for Democrats in return for concessions on the state maps?

[Sbane]

Giving up 2 Democratic seats would be ridiculous, though if any party is capable of failing so hard, it's the Democrats.

[Sbane]

I am sure the Democrats can work out a deal with some Senate Republicans. They get safe seats in exchange for gerrymandered congressional and assembly maps.

[Sbane]

I highly doubt a court would draw a 9th district like that. Rest of it looks more or less reasonable.

[Sbane]

Just drew a very nice looking Republican district in Brooklyn. It's 50-48 Mccain and the 13th is 49-48 Mccain.

[Sbane]

(all racial stats are in VAP)
CD-1 Obama 51.9-47.1 80% White
CD-2 Obama 52.6-46.5 69.1% White
CD-3 Obama 51.5-47.8 71.7% White
CD-5 Obama 54.4-44.8 62.1% White
CD-6 Obama 80.5-19.1 49.9% Black, 21.8% White, 18.6% Hispanic
CD-7 (Brown) Obama 84.6-14.9 53.8% Hispanic, 14.5% White, 14.2% Black, 15.4% Asian
CD-8 Obama 81-18.1 74.1% White
CD-9 Mccain 50.7-48.6 58.9% White, 19% Asian, 16.2% Hispanic
CD-10 Obama 94-5.6 Black 54.9%, 21% Hispanic, 17.9% White
CD-11 Obama 88.8-10.9 Black 53.7%, 21.7% Hispanic, 11.7% White
CD-12 Obama 66.3-32.9 White 38.2%, 29.9% Asian, 24.1% Hispanic
CD-13 Mccain 49.9-49.2 White 63.9% White
CD-14 Obama 85.8-13.2 White 53%, Hispanic 20.9%, 17.8% Asian
CD-15 Obama 95.6-4 Hispanic 46.9%, Black 35.7%, 11.8% White
CD-16 (pink) Obama 87.2-12.2 Hispanic 57.7%, White 18.6%, Black 17.7%

[Sbane]

Interesting map Sbane. That bifurcation of NY-03 however is a bit radical, and it looks like you didn't quite follow county, borough and city lines quite as much. In any event, the Pubbies would be fools to give away a shot for another seat in Brooklyn. It is more an accident of geography given the polarized ethnic voting patterns, and where the blacks and Hispanics live, and all the water around, but there you go.

Yes, NY-3 looks a little odd, but it has to be done to keep NY-6 about 50% VAP Black. Though we might be overestimating the need for that Black of a district. Even a 46-47% VAP district would probably be good enough and that would make NY-3 look nice. Also, yes I did not care much for city lines, but it only affects NY-1,2,3 and 5. The minority districts have to be drawn in that particular fashion. So if there is any change it would be where I disregarded city lines where those districts border each other. I doubt it will change the election stats much. That is why I undertook this project, to see whether a fair map would result in a Republican Brooklyn district, and it looks like it will.

[Sbane]

Made a few changes. I put Baldwin Harbor in NY-3 as well as southern Freeport. These were the areas that made NY-3 discontinuous (only had 17,000 odd residents). And surprisingly I found some precincts to the north of NY-6 that had more Black residents than the areas I took out, so now my NY-6 is 50% VAP instead of 49.9%.

I evened out the city splits, but to my surprise it wasn't so bad to begin with. I just didn't care about reducing city splitting last night. Too tired, and drunk. Anyways, now only Hicksville is split between CD-3 and CD-5. East Massapequa is split between CD-3 and 2. And Oakdale is split between CD-1 and 2. The partisan stats are still the same for all the districts.

[Sbane]

I am also pleased the Pubs are playing with the idea of having the courts draw the map, which is what I want.

How does that help Republicans exactly? I have tried to draw a fair map before and all I got was about the same partisan balance. Though there are more swing seats if that is done, but you seem to be assuming that Republicans will be better at winning the swing seats. That is hilarious considering the state of your party.

[Sbane]

I am also pleased the Pubs are playing with the idea of having the courts draw the map, which is what I want.

How does that help Republicans exactly? I have tried to draw a fair map before and all I got was about the same partisan balance. Though there are more swing seats if that is done, but you seem to be assuming that Republicans will be better at winning the swing seats. That is hilarious considering the state of your party.

I am less interested in winning seats per se, than just whom the incumbent has to cater to. I tend to like moderate Dems, and think they are useful, so if they represent swing or tilt GOP CD's, that is fine with me. I drew what I think a court might draw, and found it pretty favorable to the GOP overall, but sure there are swing CD's. And maybe such marginal CD's will result in a few more moderate Torie wing Pubs serving in the House. Keep hope alive!

Yes, I would expect something like that to occur and that is of course just fine by me.