US House Redistricting: New York

[Smash255]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.

I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.

[Smash255]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.

I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.

Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001? 

The Dems have a massive advantage in the Assembly, even if the Assembly districts are drawn by the courts they will still have a massive advantage.  The GOP would have more to lose by bringing it to the courts, it would result in a Permanent Dem Majority in the Senate and a diminished but still massive Dem majority in the Assembly.

Due to the GOP's minimal advantage in the State Senate which is heavily gerrymandered in the GOP's favor, they really have no leverage to take it to the courts.  My guess is each side loses a Congressional seat, the rest is something similar to the Incumbent Protection, GOP gets to draw the Senate, Dems the Assembly.  That is probably the best the GOP can hope for

[Smash255]

Here's one way to create an incumbent protection map for the downstate area. I assumed that downstate a D district is eliminated while upstate an R seat will go. I think I was able to find home locations for the incumbents, so let me know if I missed one. Here Ackerman and Weiner are placed together in the new CD 5. I also took the liberty of renumbering a couple of districts to better reflect the general pattern of increasing numbers from SE to NW.



CD 1 (blue, Bishop D): White 78%; Obama 55%
CD 2 (green, Israel D): White 77%; Obama 54%
CD 3 (purple, King R): White 88%; McCain 54%
CD 4 (red, McCarthy D): White 64%, Black 15%; Obama 60%
CD 5 (yellow, Ackerman D, Weiner D): White 52%, Asian 20%, Hispanic 18%; Obama 64%
CD 6 (teal, Meeks D): Black 52%, Hispanic 16%, White 16%; Obama 84%
CD 7 (grey, Crowley D): White 35%, Hispanic 30%, Asian 20%; Obama 74%
CD 8 (slate, Nadler D): White 61%, Asian 21%; Obama 69%
CD 9 (cyan, Grimm R): White 73%; McCain 54%
CD 10 (pink, Towns D): Black 57%, White 23%; Obama 85%
CD 11 (pale green, Clarke D): Black 54%, White 24%; Obama 92%
CD 12 (sky, Velazquez D): Hispanic 61%; Obama 85%
CD 13 (peach, Engel D): White 34%, Black 33%, Hispanic 26%; Obama 79%
CD 14 (olive, Maloney D): White 71%; Obama 80%
CD 15 (orange, Rangel D): Hispanic 46%, Black 28%, White 20%; Obama 93%
CD 16 (lime, Serrano D): Hispanic 63%, Black 30%; Obama 95%

A couple years ago Ackerman moved to Roslyn Heights, so you would have him in McCarthy's district

[Smash255]

Smash, can you tell where that district ends?  Is that a five towns cut off? Does that reach up to RVC?

It actually appears the five towns is split between three districts.  Inwood thrown in with Meeks's district, Lawrence, Ceaderhurst and Woodmere in King's district, with Hewlett remaining in McCarthy's district.  King's district also appears to take in the ultra orthodox precincts in Far Rockaway Queens along the border with Lawrence.  Rockville Centre looks like it is in King's district as well, though it is hard to tell.

[Smash255]

Here's Long Island (ignore Queens). Pete King's district snakes around to be as R as possible while shoring up the other three incumbents. Ackerman is tossed out.

Bishop: 57% Obama
Israel: 55% Obama (Ackerman is here, too)
King: 56% McCain
McCarthy: 60% Obama

The map contains some water connections without roads, but New York has been perfectly amenable to those in the past, so I am assuming they are fine.

This would get me the hell out of King's district   Yea 

Ironically enough my old precinct which is more Democratic than my current one would be in King's district

[Smash255]

Rangel's district isn't abolished in that map at all. It just becomes unequivocally a Black-influence Hispanic-majority seat. Which is the way it's headed anyhow - and which was never an issue for Rangel.

It would depend on whether Serrano would slide over to the neighboring Bronx district. But he might want to take the orange district and leave the puke Bronx district for, say, his son.

You made no mention of Ackerman, you put him into King's district.

[Smash255]

It's pretty easy to draw 2 Republican NYC seats, that why Dems draw such hideously scrambled lines around Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens, to disperse the strongly Republican south Brooklyn area

Dems draw??  The Congressional map has been a compromise map for decades...

[Smash255]

The only reason 2 is a Republican district is because of the appendage from 1 to remove a Hispanic area, and 4 is because of the black area being removed by 11.

No doubt 2 and 4 would not be Republican if Democratic areas were added to them.

Again, why are the lines self-evident proof that race, not partisan results, were the primary factor in drawing them?

So if they were drawn on a partisan basis, they're a gerrymander, despite his claim that a non-gerrymandered map would give the Republicans 4 seats.

1) "Gerrymandered seats" are a reference to what Gerry did. It was the egregiousness of what Gerry did that resulted in the phrase "Gerrymandering." The map he drew did not make any egregious choices so comparing it to Gerry's drawing of the district that looked like a Salamander is completely unjust.


2) His basic claim is correct. Long Island has nine state Senate seats all held by Republicans. Gerrymandering can't explain it since no Democratic "dumping" districts were created. Every district has about the same partisan performance, and that is good enough for the Republicans to win them all. 2-2 on Long Island seems entirely natural unless unnatural steps are taken to create a Republican "dumping" district. Staten Island is connected to Bay Ridge by bridge, and is therefore, and natural Republican district.  With VRA districts bounding the West and North, the remaining areas in South Brooklyn create a natural slightly Republican district there, as his map indicates.

Having a little wing to take the heaviest Democratic and minority areas out of NY-2 (N Amityville to Wyandanch) and then shove NY-4 down into SE Nassau, but decide to leave out the more mixed and Democratic precincts of East Massapequa is surely a gerrymander.  Especially when the NY-3 you created would still be a Democratic seat without those areas. 

[Smash255]

The only reason 2 is a Republican district is because of the appendage from 1 to remove a Hispanic area, and 4 is because of the black area being removed by 11.

No doubt 2 and 4 would not be Republican if Democratic areas were added to them.

Again, why are the lines self-evident proof that race, not partisan results, were the primary factor in drawing them?

So if they were drawn on a partisan basis, they're a gerrymander, despite his claim that a non-gerrymandered map would give the Republicans 4 seats.

1) "Gerrymandered seats" are a reference to what Gerry did. It was the egregiousness of what Gerry did that resulted in the phrase "Gerrymandering." The map he drew did not make any egregious choices so comparing it to Gerry's drawing of the district that looked like a Salamander is completely unjust.


2) His basic claim is correct. Long Island has nine state Senate seats all held by Republicans. Gerrymandering can't explain it since no Democratic "dumping" districts were created. Every district has about the same partisan performance, and that is good enough for the Republicans to win them all. 2-2 on Long Island seems entirely natural unless unnatural steps are taken to create a Republican "dumping" district. Staten Island is connected to Bay Ridge by bridge, and is therefore, and natural Republican district.  With VRA districts bounding the West and North, the remaining areas in South Brooklyn create a natural slightly Republican district there, as his map indicates.

Having a little wing to take the heaviest Democratic and minority areas out of NY-2 (N Amityville to Wyandanch) and then shove NY-4 down into SE Nassau, but decide to leave out the more mixed and Democratic precincts of East Massapequa is surely a gerrymander.  Especially when the NY-3 you created would still be a Democratic seat without those areas. 

Extending the underpopulated VRA seat in Queens into the surrounding area with minorities is not "gerrymandering." It is taking the VRA seriously.

I'm not sure if Meek's district qualifies as needing a black majority.  Putting that aside from now.  It still doesn't explain the partisan racialmander in western Suffolk & extreme SE Nassau you have going on between the 3rd and 4th.  Not to mention the whole thing of leaving McCarthy with a district that covers 5% of her current one.

[Smash255]

More than one way to skin a New York kitten, aka Presenting the Rangelmander.



3rd district (purple, King)
50.1-49.1 McCain, 79% White
Ungerrymandered but not too much, in order to keep it a McCain seat.
4th district (red, McCarthy)
59.1 Obama, 54% White, 18% Hispanic, 17% Black
5th district (yellow, Ackerman)
62.9 Obama, 42% White, 35% Asian, 16% Hispanic
The idea here is to make it possible that this will become an Asian opportunity seat in the nearish future, of course. Precincts given to McCarthy were handpicked for Whiteness.
6th district (teal, Meeks)
85.7% Obama, 45% Black, 22% Hispanic, 13% White, 12% Asian
No one should dream that a substantially different map is possible. Please, people.
7th district (grey, Crowley)
80.5% Obama, 53% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 18% White, 6% Black
And, yes, it's majority Hispanic VAP. Probably not enough for Velazquez to move here, alas. IRL, of course, you're not going to see this district.
8th (lavender)
94.6% Obama, 53% Black, 21% White, 20% Hispanic
9th (light blue)
83.9% Obama, 52% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian
I have no idea who runs for what. Both are majority Black VAP. Note Coney Island.
10th (pink, open)
63.4% Obama, 60% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian
The Brooklyn White Democrat seat - the one disenfranchised major group in New York's current map. Now with added bonus of uniting all the Hasidic areas of Brooklyn into a single district.
11th (light green, Grimm)
51.9% McCain, 62% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 7% Black
About as safe as can be drawn (when considering Hasidim to not be safe R votes).
12th (slate)
83.3% Obama, 62% White, 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic
13th (orange)
83.8% Obama, 49% White, 34% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian
The Manhattan seats, though orange has a white piece of NW Queens. And yeah, I'm aware you'll have to swim or cross through another district. Maloney is in the orange district, not sure where Nadler is.
14th (black, just because. Rangel)
90.1% Obama, 45% Black, 34% Hispanic, 14% White, 5% Asian
The only district to introduce unnecessary county splits here.
15th (tomato, Serrano)
94.3% Obama, 63% Hispanic, 30% Black

Light green is part of Engel's and possibly Lowey's seat, of course.

Ackerman now actually live in Nassau (Roslyn Heights)

[Smash255]

I call this map "too many objectives". Two Black majority seats, Three Hispanic majority seats, two Black plurality seats one of which is evidently Meeks' (and, yeah, the other one is Engel's. Near three way tie), and an ever so barely Asian plurality seat, not that it would actually elect one in 2012. And my Brooklyn White district. And a North-South split of Nassau.

1st 78% White, 13% Hispanic, 52.0% Obama
2nd 65% White, 20% Hispanic, 53.0% Obama
3rd (south Nassau) 64% White, 17% Hispanic, 14% Black, 54.1% Obama
4th (north Nassau and all the way to Pelham) 72% White, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 52.4% Obama
I wonder who would run in which district... where do King and McCarthy live? Ackerman is in the 4th, evidently.
5th (yellow Queens) 40% Asian, 38% White, 15% Hispanic (still plurality White VAP), 63.1% Obama
6th (Meeks, sans Rockaway now) 43% Black, 22% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 85.5% Obama
7th (grey Queens, with Bushwick, a corridor through Hispanic parts of Williamsburg, and Two Bridges and Alphabet City. I apologize for the way it looks in the East River, that's just the empty precincts' design. All cross East River districts have their own bridge or tunnel.) 54% Hispanic, 19% White, 17% Asian, 82.5% Obama
8th (central Brooklyn), 56% Black, 21% Hispanic, 16% White, 94.7% Obama
9th (light blue Brooklyn) 55% Black, 23% White, 16% Hispanic, 82.8% Obama
10th (pink Brooklyn) 61% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 62.2% Obama. Compared to previous map, adds a bit of Williamsburg, loses a sliver in South Brooklyn (the neighborhood of that name. Which is in North Western Brooklyn, of course.)
11th (Staten) 62% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 51.9% McCain. Not tampered with compared to previous version.
12th (Lower Manhattan with Greenpoint, Hunters Point. Nadler) 67% White, 17% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 82.0% Obama
13th (black Harlem River) 60% Hispanic, 29% Black, 94.9% Obama
14th (tomato Bronx) 59% Hispanic, 27% Black, 89.6% Obama
Kind of assuming Rangel is forced into retirement no matter what, if not in 2012 then in '14 or '16, so no use propping him up either.
15th (orange. Uptown, Riverdale, NW Queens Whites. Maloney) 59% White, 22% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 81.3% Obama
16th (my masterpiece) 33% Black, 31% Hispanic, 30% White, 75.3% Obama. Whites move into second place on VAP. Is Engel still safe under this map? Or does he discover an interest in running for mayor?

McCarthy lives in Mineola, which looks like is on the southern fringe of the red district in central Nassau.  (looks like the Town borders of N. Hempstead and Hempstead or community borders of Mineola and Garden City is where you have it split.  Even if she doesn't live there, my guess is McCarthy would choose to run in the purple one since that covers about 3/4 of her current district (Mineola is on the northern fringe of the current one.  also you could draw her into the purple one with ease. 

King lives in Seaford (north of Sunrise).  It looks like you use Sunrise Highway as the border between the two districts in SE Nassau, but I can't tell if that ends in Massapequa, or extends into Seaford (you bring the border a bit further north in the Seaford/Wantagh area, but its hard to tell exactly where.

[Smash255]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

[Smash255]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Um, the GOP holds all nine state Senate seats in suburban Long Island. The new 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are more Republican than suburban Long Island as a whole. Tell us again how a Republican can't win in those districts?

First off State Senate Seats and Congressional districts have a very different dynamic,  the GOP is more electable on the local level than nationally.  The fact the GOP drew all of those districts last time does help quite a bit.  None of those districts are strongly GOP, but drawn in ways with the state dynamics it can stay GOP leaning for the most part.  Not to mention the biggie of Incumbency, most of the Senators on LI have been in those seats for much of my lifetime (and I'm in my late 20's)


Anyway back to the Congressional races, if they can't knock off Bishop in the heavily GOP year  of 2010 with someone who outspent him by $1.5 million, I don't see them being able to knock him off.  Now if Bishop decides to retire it will be competitive, (considering he is 61 I don't see that happening soon), but outside of that its going to be very difficult for the GOP to peal it off.

Israel is just way too entrenched (even with getting a bunch of new territory) for the GOP to knock him off under any circumstances.  His name was thrown around for Senate when Clinton's seat opened up, but unless that happens again he is going nowhere (he is 53).  Israel is the chair of the DCCC.  Not to mention the GOP has no bench at all in the district.  The GOP is very strong in the Town of Oyster Bay, but virtually all of it is in the southern half of the down (King's portion), and have absolutely nothing in the Town of Huntington and North Hempstead.

I never said they wouldn't hold the new 2nd (current 3rd, King's district) hell I live here.  The GOP does have a solid bench in the district, so even if he retires I think the GOP should be in good shape of holding it (unless it happens in a heavy Dem year).  The Dems have a decent based (most of which is in Babylon), but with Bellone just winning the Suffolk Co Exec job that takes the strongest one out of the mix.

[Smash255]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Considering the margin, any such infighting was likely a critical factor.

Between Israel's skill as a candidate and the amount of changes made, they did enough to put it beyond reach. Four was within reach with the right candidate in the right year because of McCarthy.

I don't really concern myself with King's political future.

I agree with you on Israel.  The incumbent protection map (which is what the last redistricting basically was) helped both Israel and King, but may have even had more impact on King.

As far as the 4th, it never really was within reach.  The district was always Democratic enough it would have been hard for the GOP to do anything there.  The GOP bench there was pretty much wiped out with the collapse of the Nassau GOP machine in the late 90's/ early 2000's.  The machine is still very strong in the Town of Hempstead, but Murray (The Town Supervisor) lives in Levittown (King).  Not to mention the recent demographic changes.   Basically the only possibility the GOP could have had is if 2002 was a stronger GOP year and the party didn't collapse 10-12 years ago and even that would have been a huge stretch.

[Smash255]

Look at it this way - a reasonably competent incumbent, particularly in NY, garners you about a 3% to 5% tailwind over the partisan PVI baseline. Israel is reasonably competent, but too liberal, and in particular too high profile out front partisan,  for his new CD. McCarthy I don't consider reasonably competent. Is Gibson reasonably competent? And Slaughter isn't reasonably competent at all.

I don't see Israel or McCarthy in much danger under the new lines.  The GOP has no bench whatsoever in either district.  The demographics in McCarthy's district are only going to become even more favorable for her as western Nassau has become much more diverse and will continue to do so.

[Smash255]

I think the issue is more that nothing is done to shore up Hochul, and if you consider Turner's seat a Dem one currently Republican by a fluke it's two Dem seats eliminated. Sure the inverse is true of Hochul but with her just losing that's not quite a fair trade. And the only seat that becomes so Dem in a neutral environment it's guaranteed to flip is Buerkle's, which probably would've happened anyway. Losing Hochul, Buerkle, Hinchey and Turner may be a net zero but it's not exactly "fair" if you look at the details.

The problem with a "packed Jewish Dem CD" is that the Jews don't segregate like the races do except the Hasids NY Jew is so obsessed with, for example the Manhattan part of Nadler's seat certainly has a lot of Jews but many non-Jews as well. And the problem with the packed Jewish GOP seat NY Jew desires so much is the makeup depends primarily on who else you put there, it's quite easy to combine all the Hasidic areas and put them in a majority black seat. Nadler's seat is actually the closest thing to a "Jewish seat" that can be drawn.

You perhaps can draw something that starts in the Nassau portion of Israel's current seat with a narrow strip connecting it to much of the Nassau portion of Ackerman's current seat (minus Manhasset and Plandome) and then push it into the Forrest Hills section of Queens.