US House Redistricting: New York

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is it possible that Charlie Rangel gets primaried by a Puerto Rican?

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http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

[freepcrusher]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

The product of serving in a gerry in the 2000's is that she is less capable of performing so well in a not gerry'd seat. Think of Lungren's diminishing returns as an extreme example of a candidate who is less and less effective at wining voters. It does happen as you can see. And putting a candidate in a safe seat for 10 years and letting her adapt, then taking it form her, is another way of producing such a transformation of candidate quality.

I don't know if Lungren is a good example. Maybe Dick Lehman who represented a district that connected the inner city areas from Stockton and Fresno via the Sierras in the 80s would be a better example.

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Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views.

most democrats, including most blue dogs, support abortion rights. What's the big deal?

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Is his voting record markedly different from that of, say, Spencer Bachus or John Fleming on anything significant?

He's a member of the Main Street Partnership... I also vaguely remember he and Rep. Hanna not siding with most Republicans on a couple of votes, though I can't recall which. He's definitely not a Buerkle. (And his MoV in 2010 was nearly 10%.)

correct, Gibson is a good fit for this district. Remember, this is a district who used to elect wingnut Gerald B.H. Solomon every two years.

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Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now.

Lowey's lifetime ADA rating is like 94. It's very difficult to maintain a rating that high for more than 20 years. Of the congressman who have served a similar amount of years, only Barney Frank, Ed Markey and George Miller have higher lifetime ADA scores than her. A Ben Gilman esque Republican could possibly defeat her.

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anyone hear that Slaughter broke her foot? Hopefully she can serve one last term and then retire. Who would a good dem candidate be for the seat? Maybe Harry Bronson?