US House Redistricting: New York

[patrick1]

Smash, can you tell where that district ends?  Is that a five towns cut off? Does that reach up to RVC?

[patrick1]

Wow, looking at a list of New York's most populous cities, it's impressive that many of NYC's neighborhoods would place well into the top 6 (i.e. Flushing, my own Sunset Park) etcetc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York#Cities

And even more would place in the top 7.  I wonder how some high growth neighborhoods in NYC will fair compared to that list of cities once the census information is complete.

None of those neighborhoods could hold up against a similar list of the most populous Californian cities (the other state I have familiarity with).

Even larger when you consider that Sunset Park was until recently (I think around the early 1960's with completion of Gowanus/BQE) considered part of Bay Ridge.

The other cities in New York have been bleeding population for decades. They have more in common with Rust belt than SE part of the state. It is crazy when you think Buffalo was once in the top ten largest cities.

[patrick1]

That is one ugly map of LI.   I like how it just magically  jumps across Reynolds channel and scoops up the black/Hispanic area of Long Beach. It  then snakes around to bring in what looks like Elmont, W Valley Stream and Inwood.  Wonderful gerrymander.

[patrick1]

Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.

He would love them.

http://forward.com/articles/137094/

Wow that guy is disgusting. Canadians should be really offended.

Pollard should have been executed for treason decades ago.

[patrick1]

OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?

It is kind of a green paradise among the asphalt:)  It is probably one of the least dense neighborhoods in the city.  A lot of parks and cemetaries so it is spread out and a lot of trees. The tornado/macroburst last September hit this neighborhood hard and that is how I came to know  about it more. It is a white neighborhood for the most part.  Bloomberg is not cared for here at all recently.  It is definitely a lot more conservative than the city at large.

[patrick1]

OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?

It is kind of a green paradise among the asphalt:)  It is probably one of the least dense neighborhoods in the city.  A lot of parks and cemetaries so it is spread out and a lot of trees. The tornado/macroburst last September hit this neighborhood hard and that is how I came to know  about it more. It is a white neighborhood for the most part.  Bloomberg is not cared for here at all recently.  It is definitely a lot more conservative than the city at large.

I don't know that Middle Village is particularly lacking in density if you subtract the cemeteries (but leave in Juniper Valley Park since a lot of neighborhoods have parks). It's definitely denser than Forest Hills, for example. (A quick glance at Google Earth is all you need to see that.)

The real reason it is relatively conservative is, as always, demographics. Lots of middle class Italians, Irish, etc. in Middle Village as well as in neighboring Maspeth and Glendale, which are all fairly conservative.

My definition of density is different- read not many large residential buildings/projects/coops etc etc   There are even trees and some people have backyards.  Yeah, Forest Hills has more money and much larger lots. Jamaica estates and Staten Island and many other neighborhoods have less density so was an overstatement. 

[patrick1]

Here's my initial post-Weiner map of the NYC/LI districts. After Weiner's district is chopped, all other incumbents remain in district (I hope). All districts are within 100 of the ideal. There are 3 Black-majority and 3 Hispanic-majority districts. Here's the map and summary.

CD 1 (blue Bishop) Moves from 51.4% Obama to 51.9% Obama
CD 2 (green Israel) Moves from 56.1% Obama to 57.5% Obama
CD 3 (purple King) Moves from 51.9% McCain to 55.1% McCain
CD 4 (red McCarthy) Moves from 58.0% Obama to 53.5% Obama
CD 5 (tan Ackerman) White plurality 45.0%, Asian VAP 28.2%
CD 6 (teal Meeks) Black VAP 50.7%
CD 7 (gray Crowley) White plurality 48.8%, Hisp VAP 23.4%, Black VAP 21.6%
CD 8 (slate Nadler) White majority 55.4%, Asian VAP 27.6%
CD 9 (cyan Grimm) Repaces NY-13, moves from 50.5% McCain to 57.0% McCain
CD 10 (orchid Towns) Black VAP 54.5%
CD 11 (chartreuse Clarke)Black VAP 51.1%
CD 12 (yellow Velazquez) Hisp VAP 59.2%
CD 13 (light blue Engel) Replaces NY-17, White plurality 38.5%, Black VAP 29.8%, Hisp VAP 24.3%
CD 14 (olive Maloney) White majority 68.7%
CD 15 (orange Rangel) Hisp VAP 52.3%, Black VAP 30.5%
CD 16 (lime Serrano) Hisp VAP 64.9%, Black VAP 27.4%

Oh, I dislike that McCarthy district a lot. (ingenious inventiveness though) It just creates a 3 borough mess where the communities have nothing in common. This, I think, makes it harder for a rep. to advocate for their constituencies. Not even sure I would still be in her district.  Ugh, perhaps I'd be chucked into a Meeks district.

[patrick1]

There is no reason to extend Meeks into Long Island. Expanding a little in the north works just fine.

Yep.  I agree.

Further, I take the general view that it is better to maintain a LI/NYC divide whenever possible. There are naturally some different concerns among the constituencies. LI makes up just barely 4 seats(I believe Cinyc said 35k short) and there are fringe city areas on the border that work well with a LI rep (Orthodox parts of Far Rock w. same rep as Five towns).
I think carving out these majority_____ minority districts for its own sake is getting ridiculous and with ever expanding diversity will become a fools errand. I think it is much better to have some pluralities with districts that have geographic continuity and common concerns. 

[patrick1]

There is no reason to extend Meeks into Long Island. Expanding a little in the north works just fine.

Yep.  I agree.

Further, I take the general view that it is better to maintain a LI/NYC divide whenever possible. There are naturally some different concerns among the constituencies. LI makes up just barely 4 seats(I believe Cinyc said 35k short) and there are fringe city areas on the border that work well with a LI rep (Orthodox parts of Far Rock w. same rep as Five towns).
I think carving out these majority_____ minority districts for its own sake is getting ridiculous and with ever expanding diversity will become a fools errand. I think it is much better to have some pluralities with districts that have geographic continuity and common concerns. 

As long as there are significant differences in the voting behavior of protected minorities compared to the white population, the Constitution through the VRA will require districts where minorities have the opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice. In areas where the minorities are thinly spread in the general population, there is unlikely to be a need to create those districts, but where they are concentrated differences in voting patterns can be more readily distinguished, so special districts tend to be needed. In any case the situation for a minority must be examined on both the level of the state as well as in each locale.

The state-level facts for NY show that blacks make up 15.2% of the voting age population and Hispanics make up 16.2% of the voting age population. Based on the DeGrandy decision, if NY draws fewer than 4 black-majority and 4 Hispanic-majority districts than they could be open to a challenge if additional seats could be reasonably drawn. Both black and Hispanic populations outside of NYC are too dispersed to provide congressional seat majorities, so 3 districts each is a reasonable upper limit.

There is the additional challenge of making sure that the Hispanic population can control the vote in their districts due to turnout and citizenship factors. This tends to necessitate districts with larger Hispanic majorities to achieve electoral success, and that tends to reduce the number of districts. No agreed upon standard exists for Hispanic districts between the federal Appellate Courts, and many observers expect that SCOTUS will have to deal with this question this decade.

So, the specific issue is what to do about Meeks' district? A cautious mapmaker would want to avoid a clear opportunity for a challenge, and would bring the VAP for that district over 50%. The only choices to do that are an extension into Nassau or a long thin bridge to Harlem or the Bronx. I think everyone would agree that the former is the better choice, since it's arguably the more compact choice and reflects closer communities of interest.

Now in the real world, map makers could get an agreement from major civil rights groups like the NAACP. That agreement could include districts that were a lower percentage, but still likely to allow the minority to elect the candidate of their choice. If the NAACP and other major black civil signed off on a CD 6 with less than 50% black VAP, the chance of a successful challenge diminishes. But, since I don't have that concurrence, I was left with the more cautious route.

Yep, thanks for the details.  I am not well versed on the finer details of the VRA decisions like you guys so I appreciate the input.  I vaguely understand why these monstrosity districts must be drawn, but they still annoy the heck out of me.  New York is well on its way to being majority-minority and within that new majority the different groups will be broken down into even smaller groups. Drawing these patchwork special districts is just going to get ever more complicated and imo un-neccesary.

[patrick1]

I'm really have a tough time following all the twists and turns of this byzantine redistricting proces.  Can someone inform me if this very basic summary is right-

Dems and Reps cannot agree on map

Cuomo is pissed and an agreement is hammered out by both parties to have an independent Judge draw up a map

Craven career politicians on both sides get scared and decide to cooperate to perpetuate their power

Cuomo throws up his hands and punts 10 years for change in state Constit.
- Lost on where things stand now.

I know their will be several different Republican primaries and I'm looking to see even what districts I will be in.

Any links to updates would be appreciated.

[patrick1]

BRTD, that district with the Rockaway peninsula, what looks like could be South Jamaica and SW Nassau is GROSS

And if anyone could respond to my previous post, Id greatly appreciate it.  I have no clue what the current status is. I'm just trying to piece it together for forum posts and a few NYTimes articles. Thanks.

[patrick1]

I'm really have a tough time following all the twists and turns of this byzantine redistricting proces.  Can someone inform me if this very basic summary is right-

Dems and Reps cannot agree on map

Cuomo is pissed and an agreement is hammered out by both parties to have an independent Judge draw up a map

Craven career politicians on both sides get scared and decide to cooperate to perpetuate their power

Cuomo throws up his hands and punts 10 years for change in state Constit.
- Lost on where things stand now.

I know their will be several different Republican primaries and I'm looking to see even what districts I will be in.

Any links to updates would be appreciated.

The Assembly passed the state Senate and Assembly redistricting plans tonight 93-43.   The State Senate just passed it 36-0 with most Democrats leaving the chamber because debate was cut off after 2.5 hours.  The Senate then passed the constitutional amendment creating an independent redistricting commission in 2020.  Because constitutional amendments require passage by two successive legislatures, there's some sort of hammer provision that takes away the ability of the legislators to appoint members to the commission if it's not passed again next year.  The legislature has a sort of veto power over the commission maps, though they wouldn't have free reign to draw whatever they want.  The Senate and Assembly majority wanted to pass this tonight because there's a court hearing on the progress of the state maps tomorrow.

This is all part of a grand compromise package that includes casino gambling, pension reform and redistricting reform, among other things, which is why Cuomo is caving.

The US House maps are NOT included in this package.

Thanks a million, Cinyc.  It seems that following all of the twists in Albany is nearly a full time job.  Do you have a link to the maps that were passed and what in the world is going on with the House now? I'm a registered Republican and will probably have like 3 different primaries on separate dates. I'm doing my best to try and keep up.

[patrick1]

Thanks a million, Cinyc.  It seems that following all of the twists in Albany is nearly a full time job.  Do you have a link to the maps that were passed and what in the world is going on with the House now? I'm a registered Republican and will probably have like 3 different primaries on separate dates. I'm doing my best to try and keep up.

State Senate
Assembly

We're almost certainly going to have three primaries this year - the Presidential primary in April, the federal offices primary in June and the state offices primary in September, assuming there are candidates in your district for the latter two.  There probably will be a Republican primary for US Senator given the number of declared candidates, so it's really a question of whether there are multiple State Senate and Assembly candidates in your districts (or a local race, if there is one).  Some good government groups want to hold the state primaries in June, too - but the petitioning period would begin in a matter of weeks if they did that, so it's probably not going to happen.

Well, I am in Skelos' district so nothing there.  From your link it looks like I lost my Assemblyman.  It was Curran, however, it appears I will now be in the first/last block of an open seat, DOJ approved 22. There certainly will be a primary but demographically it looks like he/she will be a R loser.

[patrick1]

Does anyone have a close up comparison between Slaughter's 1988 district and the 2012 district and how much additional territory is in the current one?

This has highlights by color and allows you to zoom in and out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html?ref=reapportionment

Edit, sorry missed 1988. Nope.