US House Redistricting: Texas

[minionofmidas]

I would just say the opposite, actually. Part of the point of Delaymandering was to target Cuellar, who wasn't a member of the House yet.

Cuellar almost knocked off Henry Bonilla, so they wanted to knock down the Hispanic % there and remove Laredo from the 23rd.

They split Laredo, actually, just as you're doing now. It was an issue in the District Court's ruling. And they drew Cuellar's home into a safe democratic district, which he then ran in, primarying Ciro, so...

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Not really. They argued afterwards that that was what they had done, though, after it became clear that the original line that Bonilla's was still a Hispanic-opportunity district (or alternatively, that it hadn't been before 2002, and thus didn't need to be made into one just because it would be natural to do so. Which, btw, is a line of logic wholly alien to the VRA) wouldn't fly.

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They could have easily left Hinojosa's district alone. Resulting in a less white, less compact seat for Doggett.
Of course, in practice they probably felt that district was just as much of a disgrace as its western neighbors. Changes in outer Bexar (Gonzalez' district was left unchanged) were massive all-round and could easily have been reduced.

[Sam Spade]

You know, I can do my map without splitting Webb, though I really don't think that there is any prohibition against that per se.  Splitting Webb is done because I can get the highest McCain % that way (about 1% more than the others that I've found so far) and it makes the map look the prettiest.  Besides, I like the idea of combining Cuellar and Hinojosa in a primary, though there's no real need for it if you concede TX-28 and 10 seats to the Dems, which the GOP may well do, recognizing that Farenthold was likely a fluke who needs protection and attempting to create another south Texas GOP opportunity seat is unlikely to be successful.

[freepcrusher]

I drew a map that would have 21 safe GOP districts, 1 lean GOP district, 1 Tossup, 2 Lean Dem Districts, and 11 Safe Dem Districts.

Here they are:

CD 14
all of Jefferson County
all of Chambers County
black areas of Orange County
all of Galveston County
southeastern Brazoria County
61 percent white 58 percent McCain
I: Ron Paul
Comments: I wouldn't be surprised if Michael Dukakis won this district. This area has suffered from Archie Bunker's disease.

CD 22
remaining areas of Brazoria County, all of Matagorda County, anglo areas of Fort Bend County, (basically west of HWY 59), 95% of Colorado County, all of Austin County, 90% of Waller County. 59 percent white, 61 percent McCain
I: Pete Olson
Comments: Olson is safe here

CD 9
part of Fort Bend County in Dora Olivo's district; SW Harris County. 36 percent black, 29 percent white, 25 percent Hispanic, 9 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. 68 percent Obama
I: Al Green
Comments: Probably the most diverse district in the nation. The district isn't as dem as the old CD 9 but it is still a D+15

CD 30 all of Eric Johnson's district, all of Helen Giddings district, all of Yvonne Davis's district, all of Barbara Malloy Caraway's district, part of Roberto Alonzo's district. This district is 45 percent black, 29 percent Hispanic, 23 percent white, 2 percent Asian, 1 percent other. Obama got 81 percent here.
I: EBJ
Comments: The blackest district in Texas. Not surprisingly the most democratic.

CD 24 all of Rafael Anchia's district, all of Linda Harper Brown's district, all of Rodney Anderson's district, all of Dan Branch's district, and part of Kenneth Sheets district. 44 percent Hispanic, 42 percent white, 9 percent black, 5 percent Asian. Obama got 53 percent here giving it a PVI of EVEN. No Incumbent Here.

CD 5 NE Dallas County. Mesquite, Garland, Rowlett, Sachse, part of Richardson. 57 percent white. McCain got 52 percent here. Pete Sessions would face Jeb Hensarling in a primary here.
This is my lean Republican seat. It could possibly become a tossup seat by the end of the decade possibly.

CD 23 Part of HD 117, all of HD 118, all of HD 119, all of HD 120, part of HD 35. Counties: Bexar (partial), Atascosa, Karnes, Live Oak, McMullen, Bee (partial). 55 percent Hispanic, Obama got 56 percent here. Lean Democratic. I believe no incumbent is in this district.

CD 31 Brown, Comanche, Mills, Hamilton, Bosque, Somervell, Hill, Navarro, Henderson, Van Zandt (partial), Coryell, Bell (partial), Williamson (partial). 70 percent white, 64 percent McCain.
I: John Carter

CD 12 rural collin county (east of Trinity north of 380), parts of Denton (northern and western parts), NW Tarrant (basically north of I-30/I-820 and west of I-35W). 80 percent white, 65 percent McCain
I: Kay Granger
Comments: A true exurban district

CD 17 McLennan, Limestone, Freestone, Bell (partial), Falls, Milam, Robertson, Leon (partial), Lee, Burleson, Brazos, Washington, Fayette (partial). 67 percent white, 64 percent McCain.
I: Bill Flores (not sure though)

CD 29 all of HD 134, part of HD 146, all of HD 147, all of HD 145, part of HD 148. In Harris County. 44 percent Hispanic, 30 percent White, 19 percent black, 6 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. 63 percent Obama
I: Gene Green

CD 13 SW Tarrant (Benbrook, White Settlement),  Parker, Palo Pinto, Stephens, Shackelford, Jones, Fisher, Scurry, Borden, Garza, Crosby, Floyd, Hale, Swisher, Briscoe, Hall, Childress, Hardeman, Wilbarger, Wichita (partial), Armstrong, Donley, Collingsworth, Carson, Gray, Wheeler, Hemphill, Roberts, Hutchinson, Moore, Hartley, Dallam, Sherman, Hansford, Ochiltree, Lipscomb. 74 percent white, 71 percent McCain
I: Mac Thornberry
 

[freepcrusher]

District 19
Potter, Oldham, Randall, Deaf Smith, Castro, Parmer, Lamb, Bailey, Lubbock, Hockley, Cochran, Lynn, Terry, Yoakum, Dawson, Gaines, Andrews, Martin, Howard, Winkler (partial). 63 percent white, 73 percent McCain
I: Randy Neugebauer
Comments: I don't get why this district is so republican. It borders New Mexico which is a swing/lean blue state

District 3
populated parts of Collin County. Basically everything south of 380 and west of Trinity. 77 percent white, 61 percent McCain
I: Sam Johnson
Comments: May retire soon, Florence Shapiro may run here.

District 18
part of HD 148, all of HD 139, all of HD 140, all of HD 141, some of HD 142. Central and Northern Houston. 45 percent Hispanic, 34 percent black, 18 percent white, 3 percent Asian. 77 percent Obama
I: Sheila Jackson Lee
Comments: Harris County seems to be pretty politically segregated. South of FM 1960 is largely dem, anywhere north of there is fairly republican.

DISTRICT 20
HD 123, HD 125, HD 124, HD 116, part of HD 117. Central Santonio. 66 percent Hispanic. 61 percent Obama
I: Charlie Gonzalez

DISTRICT 26
parts of Richardson, Addison, parts of North Dallas, Carrollton, Coppell, anglo areas of Farmers Branch, Lewisville, the Colony, Lake Dallas, Little Elm, Corinth, Hackberry, Hebron
69 percent white, 58 percent McCain
I: Kenny Marchant vs. Michael Burgess in GOP primary

DISTRICT 10
all of HD 52, all of HD 50, all of HD 46, part of HD 48. Northern Travis, Southeastern Williamson.
59 percent white, 59 percent Obama
I: Michael McCaul
Comments: how does a district so white, vote so democratic?

DISTRICT 1
Bowie, most of Franklin, Titus, Morris, Cass, Camp, Upshur, Marion, Harrison, Gregg, Smith, Rusk, Panola. 70 percent white, 69 percent McCain
I: Louis Gohmert "Gohmert Pyle"

DISTRICT 11
Winkler (partial), Ector, Midland, Glasscock, Sterling, Mitchell (partial), Nolan (partial), Coke, Runnells, Coleman, McCulloch, Concho, Tom Green, Irion, Reagan, San Saba, Lampasas, western Williamson, Burnett, Llano, Mason, Menard, Schleicher, Crockett, Sutton, Kimble, Kerr (partial), Real, Bandera. 68 percent white, 73 percent McCain
I: Mike Conaway

DISTRICT 33
Parts of HD 142, all of HD 143, HD 144, HD 129, parts of HD 128. SE Harris County
49 percent white, 37 percent Hispanic, 9 percent black, 5 percent Asian. 57 percent McCain
I: None
Comments: Areas like Deer Park, LaPorte, Baytown, and parts of Pasadena have all caught Archie Bunker's disease

DISTRICT 7
Piney Point, Hunters Creek, Hilshire, Bunker Hill, Hedwig Villages, parts of Cypress, parts of Katy (entirely south of 290 though) 56 percent white, 59 percent McCain
I: John Culberson

[freepcrusher]

CD 34
Bastrop, Caldwell, far western Hays, southern Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca, small area in Colorado, Wilson, DeWitt, Jackson, Victoria, Goliad, Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces (partial), Bee (partial). 52 percent white, 59 percent McCain
I: Blake Farenthold (I think)
Comments: I just made Farenthold a hell of a lot more safer assuming he lives in this district

CD 21
Frank Corte Jr and Joe Strauss's districts in Bexar County, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Gillespie, Kerr (partial). 70 percent white, 65 percent McCain
I: Lamar Smith

CD 27
all of HD 38
all of HD 37
all of HD 43
some of HD 34
some of HD 39
all of Cameron County, all of Willacy County, all of Kenedy county, all of Brooks County, all of Jim Hogg, all of Kleberg, all of Jim Wells, parts of Nueces, parts of Hidalgo County. 79 percent hispanic, 60 percent Obama
I: None

CD 2
most of Orange County, Hardin, Liberty, Newton, Jasper, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, northern Walker, Madison, Leon (east of I-45), Trinity, Houston, Angelina, San Augustine, Sabine, Shelby, Nacogdoches, Cherokee, Anderson
75 percent white 71 percent McCain
I: None
Comments: "I Like Sugar and I Like Tea but I don't like _______ no sirree" sums up this district

CD 15
part of HD 39, all of HD 36, all of HD 41, part of HD 40. Entirely within Hidalgo County. This district is 88 percent hispanic and Obama got 69 percent here.
I: Ruben Hinojosa

CD 28
Western Hidalgo, Starr, Zapata, Webb, Duval, LaSalle, Frio, Medina, Uvalde, Zavala, Dimmit, Maverick, Kinney, Edwards, Val Verde, Terrell, Pecos, Crane, Upton, Ward, Loving, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Reeves, Culberson, Hudspeth, small eastern areas of El Paso County. 84 percent hispanic, 62 percent Obama
I: Henry Cuellar (but Jose Canseco lives here too)

CD 8
most exurban part of Harris County (west of 249, east/north of 290, north of FM 1960), far northern part of Waller County, all of Grimes County, all of Montgomery County, part of Walker County (in Huntsville)

CD 25
parts of HD 48, all of HD 47, all of HD 49, all of HD 51, part of HD 45. counties: Travis (partial), Blanco, Hays (everything except Kyle). 63 percent white, 60 percent Obama.
I: Lloyd Doggett
Comment: How can a 63 percent white district be this democratic?

CD 35
Klein, Spring, Humble, Kingwood, Atascosita. Northern and Eastern parts of Harris County. 65 percent white, 62 percent McCain.
I: Ted Poe

CD 4
Wood, Rains, Hunt, Rockwall, Hunt, Hopkins, Delta, Lamar, Red River, far northern precinct of Franklin, Fannin, Grayson, Cooke, Montague, Wise, Jack, Clay, Archer, Young, far southern precincts of Wichita County, Throckmorton, Baylor, Haskell, Knox, Foard, Stonewall, King, Cottle, Motley, Dickens, Kent. 84 percent white, 73 percent McCain
Comments: The whitest district in Texas. Hall may retire soon; not sure who would replace him

[freepcrusher]

CD 6
eastern Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Eastland, Erath, Hood, Johnson, Kaufman, NW precincts of Van Zandt. 79 percent white, 73 percent McCain
I: Joe Barton

CD 32
all of HD 90, all of HD 95, all of HD 94, all of HD 96, a few precincts in the southern part of HD 93. Central and Eastern Tarrant County. 49 percent white, 26 percent Hispanic, 20 percent Black, 5 percent Asian. Obama got 54 percent here. Lean Dem
I: None
Comments: Lon Burnam vs. Diane Patrick for this race maybe?

CD 36
eastern and northern areas of Tarrant County. Far eastern parts of Arlington, Euless, Bedford, Hurst, NRH, Haltom City, Watauga, Keller, Southlake, Grapevine. 71 percent white, 61 percent McCain
I: None

CD 16
most of El Paso County. 76 percent Hispanic, 65 percent Obama
I: Silvestre Reyes

[dpmapper]

I've got a map with 8-9 Hispanic districts (depending on whether you want 1 or 2 in Houston) that goes 26 solid GOP, 2 swingish-lean-GOP, and ONLY 8 DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS!!!!  Now, whether this is too ugly to pass muster is another question, and I haven't bothered to check where incumbents live too much.  But here goes:



It's not complete, but the rest of the map should be easy.  

Going along the border:

* El Paso district in green.  

* El Paso/Odessa/Midland/Laredo district in pale aquamarine: 65% Hispanic, 56-43 McCain.  Solid GOP.  Midland is split so Conaway might or might not be in this district.  



* Midland/San Angelo/San Antonio/border in royal blue: this is a mess but it's not a VRA district so it doesn't matter.  49% Hispanic, 56-43 McCain.  Might be Conaway's or Canseco's, depending on where they live.  

* McAllen/Brownsville in violet-red: 92% Hispanic for Hinojosa.  

* Harlingen-Corpus Christi-Victoria district in spring green for Farenthold: 62% Hispanic, 52-47 McCain.  



* McAllen-San Antonio district in Orange for the party-switcher, or maybe for Canseco: 65% Hispanic, 51-48 McCain.  

* north Bexar district in purple for Lamar Smith: 55-44 McCain.  You didn't think there would be a GOP district this compact, did you?   



* the Austin-San Antonio pack in greenish grey: 71% Hispanic.  If you get enough heavily Hispanic areas in SA then you can put the black areas of *both* Austin and San Antonio in this district - this is nice if you are trying to crack Austin since the black areas are about 20 points bluer than the Hispanic ones.  

* Bexar county-New Braunfels-San Marcos-Austin + counties northwest in reddish-brown: 55-43 McCain.

* Austin-west Travis/Williamson-rural counties to the northwest in yellow: 55-44 McCain.

* north Austin-Round Rock-Waco outskirts in teal: 55-43 McCain.

* east Austin-Houston exurbs in bronze: 55-44 McCain.

* Corpus Christi-Galveston in maroon: This district still has 107K to go but it's at 56-44 McCain.  

* Abilene-Waco-Killeen-Temple in orange: This district is short 64K right now (not enough to take in Lubbock) but it's at 60-39 McCain.  

[jimrtex]

I would just say the opposite, actually. Part of the point of Delaymandering was to target Cuellar, who wasn't a member of the House yet.

Cuellar almost knocked off Henry Bonilla, so they wanted to knock down the Hispanic % there and remove Laredo from the 23rd. Targeting Doggett was indirect and mostly a side effect because they needed to make a replacement district.

Actually the goal was to provide a district which Cuellar could win.  Remember that Cuellar had been appointed SOS by Rick Perry (just after Bush had resigned, so it may have even been Bush's decision).

The 2002 election was just an attempt by Laredoans to take back the district that had been taken from them when Albert Bustamante had beaten Chick Kazen in the 1984 primary.

Historical Texas Congressional Districts

Texas Congressional Map 1934-1956

Texas gained 3 seats after the 1930 census.  CD 15 is the border district.  Prior to redistricting it had also included the Brush Country.  This was also the first redistricting when Harris, Dallas, and Bexar had their own CD.  CD 8 (Harris County) was only 29% over.

It was after the 1930 Census that Bexar, Dallas, and Harris counties were each entitled to 7 state representatives, and the Texas Constitution was changed to require 100,000 persons for each additional representative.  At the time, each representative represented 38,831 persons.

By 1940, CD 8 was 173% of the statewide average, and by 1950 CD 8 was 219% of the statewide average.  Texas had gained a 22nd representative in 1952, but he was elected at large.

Texas Congressional Map 1958-1964

In 1958, the legislature got around to splitting Harris County, which by then had over a million persons.  After the 1960 Census, Texas gained another representative who was elected at large.  Dallas County, CD 5, with 951,000 persons was the most populous district in the country at the time of Wesberry v Sanders (see Appendix to Harlan dissent), 4.40 times the population of the least populous district in Texas.

In 2000 legislative hearings on redistricting, Martin Frost's henchman Gerry Hebert cited this example as being a Texas tradition of protecting incumbents.  In 1960, Joe Pool had run from this district and lost, while garnering almost as many votes as Sam Rayburn and Wright Patman combined.  Unfortunately for Pool, he was running as a Democrat in the only Republican district in Texas, and only got 42% of the vote.  Hebert claimed that the legislature made Pool run at large in 1962, when Texas got another representative, but no redistricting.  In fact, the Democrats were denying representation to Republicans.

Texas Congressional Map 1966

Texas Congressional Map 1968-1970

Bush v Martin brought one man one vote to Texas.   Bush is George Bush who was Republican State chairman at the time.  In 1966, Bush was elected to Congress from CD 7 which had been moved into Harris County, which increased the Republican representation to 2 from zero.  The other was CD 18 in the panhandle.  The Dallas district had been lost in the 1964 landslide, and Joe Pool won election in CD 3.  After his death, a 3rd Republican was elected.

Notice in particular the 2nd map which implemented one man, one vote, and see what evil the VRA has inflicted since.

There were now 3 CD's wholly within Harris County, 2 within Dallas, and 1 each in Tarrant and Bexar counties.

CD 15 moved to the lower valley, and CD 23 was created south of San Antonio.  In its initial configuration, only 15% of the district was in Bexar County, and about 15% in Webb County.  Chick Kazen of Laredo was elected in this district.

Texas Congressional Map 1972

Texas Congressional Map 1974

Texas Congressional Map 1976-1980

The 1972 redistricting pushed CD 23 northward due to slow rural growth.  It appears that the court ordered changes had to do with more rigorous enforcement of equal population, with some really ugly splits (see boundary between 11 and 17 where 3 counties ended up being chopped.

The 24th district was created in Tarrant and Dallas counties, and CD 18 was moved from the Panhandle to Harris County, where Barbara Jordan was elected.

CD 15 was now 35% in Bexar County, and about 16% in Webb County, and continued to be represented by Kazen.

Texas Congressional Map 1982

Texas Congressional Map 1984-1990

1980 brought 3 more districts to Texas.  CD 25 was created in Harris County, CD 26 in the Dallas suburbs, and CD 27 the coastal strip of South Texas.

Since South Texas really didn't have the population for a 3rd district, this shifted CD 15 to the west and north, much more into Bexar County.  In the 1984 configuration, Bexar County went to 45% of the district, with Webb now 19%, and loss of much of the district south of San Antonio,   In 1984, Albert Bustamante of San Antonio beat Kazen in the Democratic primary.

Texas Congressional Map 1992-1996(primary)

Texas Congressional Map 1996(general)-2000

This was the Frostrosity redistricting.  Egged on by Governor Ann Richards who likened redistricting to hog butchering, and compared a federal court judge to a baby in a high chair, three new districts were hacked out, CD 28 in "South Texas", CD 29 in Harris County, and CD 30 in Dallas County.  Notice all the splits of Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, Lubbock, Amarillo, Tyler, and Nacogdoches.  Besides creating 3 Democratic seats, the Democrats tried to maintain control of other districts, and would eventually lose 5, 9, 12, 13, 14, and 23.

CD 28 of course is a thinly disguised San Antonio district.  Since so much of its population is from Bexar County, it forced a radical shift of CD 23 to the west.  Albert Bustamante also wanted his new mansion in northwest San Antonio to be in his district.  Bexar County was only 27% of the district, and Webb had grown to 24%.  Henry Bonilla beat Bustamante in 1992, in party by running ads showing Bustamante's kited checks from the House Banking Scandal and pictures of his new mansion.

Bush v Vera in 1996 resulted in redrawing the districts in the Dallas and Houston areas, and meant that elections in 13 districts were run as special elections, with the primary results discarded.  This had no impact on South Texas.

Texas Congressional Map 2002

The federal district court drew the map in 2002 cleaning up lines to some extend but see CD 4 and CD 5 for example.  The two new districts were CD 31 running from Houston to Round Rock, and CD 32 in Dallas.

CD 23 had only minor adjustments, but now Webb County had 30% of the district, while Bexar was down down to 26%.  When Henry Cuellar challenged Henry Bonilla it was a geographically polarized election more than racially polarized.  But because some of the border counties are so heavily Hispanic you can convince some judges that it was racially polarized.

Texas Congressional Map 2004-2006 primary

After the 2001 district court decision invited the legislature to perform its redistricting duties, this map was drawn in 2003.  This map clearly demonstrates that you can't draw 6 border districts.  Henry Cuellar defeated Ciro Rodriguez in the 2004 primary, which simply was another illustration of geographical polarization.

Just for fun, compare CD 27 between the 2002 and 2004 maps.

Texas Congressional Map 2006 general-2010

These are the districts drawn in 2006.  With Webb placed entirely in CD 28, Bexar County is now 56% of CD 23.  Had it been an ordinary election, Henry Bonilla would have defeated Ciro Gonzalez in 2006, and Quico Canseco did in 2010.

The Supreme Court in 2006 ruled that CD 25 did not count for VRA purposes.  But are CD 15 and CD 28 really any better?  They bypass nearby communities to include far distant population

CD 28: 340 miles (McAllen, Laredo, Floresville, Seguin)
CD 15: 220 miles (McAllen, Alice, Cuero)

CD 23 perhaps could be defended as being "compact" on the basis of having to stick the Trans-Pecos somewhere.  But San Antonio-Del Rio-El Paso is 580 miles and doesn't even include the direct highway route between El Paso and San Antonio, adding another 1-1/2 to a trip that is already 7-1/2 hours.

The first prong of the Gingles Test is that a geographically compact minority can form a majority in a single-member district.  But doesn't that imply that the single-member district should also be compact?

[jimrtex]

In any case, here's the first redistricting bill. It's set up around 32 districts rather than 36, if someone wants to poke through it.

http://www.connectamarillo.com/news/story.aspx?id=562653

It's probably easier to get to from the Texas legislature website.

It is essentially a shell bill.  The Texas Constitution has lots of restrictions on the process of legislation.  In particular, the first month or so of the session is restricted to committee consideration of bills.   So filing a bill permits it to be assigned to a redistricting committee, so that hearings can be held.  You may notice that the bills give the Plan number on the Redviewer site.

I wouldn't be surprised if the congressional and SBOE plans weren't also filed in the House as well.  Traditionally, the two houses redistrict themselves.  The bills then go to the opposite house, where it arranged that they are voted on at the same time.  Doormen are stationed at opposite end of the capital so that they can verify that the two bills are simultaneously gaveled as being approved.

[jimrtex]

Yes, having now just looked at the question (because I was in a state of total confusion myself), apparently Justice Kennedy was vague in Bartlett v Strickland (did he mean to be vague, or was he just sloppy?), about whether the relevant minority class under the VRA was VAP or citizen VAP. His language just says VAP, but a later lower court opined in REYES v. CITY OF FARMERS BRANCH TEXAS that  given the context of the relevant phrase in Bartlett, and the fact that the issue of VAP versus citizen VAP was not before the Bartlett court, and  that the whole concept of voting means eligible to vote,  what Justice Kennedy really meant to say was citizen VAP, and not just VAP, and so ruled.

And since that lower court was the 5th Circuit, that holding is the governing authority for the moment for Texas, unless and until Justice Kennedy in a later case rules that no, when he wrote VAP, and did not include the qualifier "citizen," that was because he intended not to. It is all very odd, since the lower court in Bartlett which was appealed to SCOTUS, explicitly discussed the issue of citizen versus non-citizen, and explicitly ruled that the relevant number was citizen VAP, and one cannot not include the non citizen minority VAP in the count.

Fun stuff isn't it?

Lepak v City of Irving, currently pending in federal district court (Northern District, Texas), challenges the notion of whether a city may "voluntarily" draw districts such that the influence of voters in some districts is diluted, even though the districts have the same number of persons, especially when equal population districts can be drawn that do have relatively equal numbers of voters.

[freepcrusher]

Here is Frostrocity Redux. Blue district is District 10. McCaul is the incumbent. 59 percent white, 59 percent Obama. Pink District is District 36. Lloyd Doggett (or as freepers call him Lloyd Dogs#it) is the incumbent. This district is 62% white and Obama got 60 percent here. In a state where McCain won 73 percent of the white vote, I'm surprised Obama could win any districts that are 55-65 percent white.

[freepcrusher]

]This is the Rio Grande Valley. District 28 stretches from the western edge of Hidalgo County all the way to the eastern part of El Paso County. Easily one of the largest geographical districts in the U.S. and probably the largest in Texas. This district is 84 percent hispanic and Obama got 63 percent here. Henry Cuellar is the incumbent here.

The orange district takes in most of El Paso County. This district is 76 percent hispanic and Obama got 65 percent here. The incumbent is Silvestre Reyes.

Hidalgo County has grown to the extent that a district can be entirely within it. District 15 (in green) is 88 percent hispanic and Obama got 69 percent here. Ruben Hinojosa is the incumbent.

The district that takes in the far southern coastal counties is District 27. It takes in a small part of Hidalgo County, all of Cameron County, and parts of Nueces County. This district is 79 percent hispanic and Obama got 60 percent here. I split up Nueces County so Farenthold has the option of either running in District 27 and taking a gamble OR running in District 14 and facing Ron Paul in a primary. Farenthold might have a decent shot of unseating Paul as he will be 77 in 2012.

[freepcrusher]

This is the district Farenthold may run in if he wishes to challenge Ron Paul in a primary. This is district 14 in green. It is 53 percent white and McCain got 61 percent here.

[freepcrusher]

This is Central Texas. The district in brown is District 31. It basically takes in areas that were in Doggett or McCaul's old district. This district is 70 percent white and McCain got 62 percent here. John Carter should be fine here.

[freepcrusher]

District 4 is in silver. Time to pack it in Ralph. Not only has your district been transformed to a mostly rural district to a nearly 100 percent suburban one, but you are 80 odd years old and a turncoat (what ticks me off about you). Instead Taliban Pete would run in this district. He is slightly more safe here in a 60 percent white and 55 percent McCain district.

District 5 is in red. This is 39 percent white 33 percent black 25 percent hispanic and 3 percent Asian. Obama got 68 percent here. Hensarling is the incumbent here.

District 12 is in light blue. Basically takes in the most exurban parts of Denton County, undeveloped areas in western Tarrant County, and some uber wealthy areas in northern Tarrant County like Southlake or River Oaks. Granger is the incumbent here and will be fine in a 82 percent white and 67 percent McCain district.

District 24 is in puke green and takes in the most democratic areas of Tarrant County. This district is 49 percent white 27 percent hispanic 20 percent black and 4 percent Asian. This is an open seat and would probably be a lean R seat. Lon Burnam or Marc Veasey may run here.

District 26 is a green/light green and takes in NW Dallas County, SE Denton, and parts of West Plano in Collin County. Here Kenny Marchant faces off against Michael Burgess in a primary. I'm not sure who would win, both have been in office for about 5-10 years, both are fairly conservative but not a Steve King type loudmouth, and both are around 60 years old. Whoever would win the primary would be reasonably safe in a 68 percent white, 57 percent McCain district.

District 30 is in pink. This is the most hispanic district in the metroplex at 44 percent hispanic. Other races include 29 percent white, 23 percent black, 3 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 69 percent here. Eddie Bernice Johnson can run either in District 5 or District 30. If she wants to run here that's fine, but if she wants to run in District 5 and face off against Hensarling that would be fine too. This would lead to an open seat where Rafael Anchia or Roberto Alonzo would probably run.

District 32 is in orange/light orange. It takes in some of northern Dallas and southern Collin county. Although the district is renumbered, Sam Johnson is the incumbent here. This district is 72 percent white and McCain got 58 percent here, which is actually an improvement since the 1980s, when the area in this district was probably the most republican in the country.

District 35 is dark brown in eastern and northern Tarrant County. This district is 67 percent white and McCain got 58 percent here.

[freepcrusher]

this is East Texas. The dark purple district is District 34. No incumbent is in here, but a republican will almost certainly represent this district. This district is 74 percent white and McCain got 70 percent here.

The light purple district below it is District 8. Kevin Brady is the incumbent here and is safe in a 76 percent white and 71 percent McCain district.

The light blue district is District 9. This district here has no incumbent depending on whether Ron Paul wants to stay in District 14 or run in this district. If this is an open seat, the right democrat (like Craig Eiland) could win this district. Nick Lampson and Jack Brooks used to represent this district. The sad thing about this district is that it used to be solid democrat and even Dukakis won this area. But this is a racist district. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 56 percent here.


The silver district is District 11. It basically takes in  part of Waco and runs through Collie Station. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 59 percent here. Flores is safe here unless Edwards wants his seat back.

[freepcrusher]

This is the Houston Area. Although county results show Dallas County to be more democratic voting than Harris County, this maps confirms that the Houston area is still more democratic as a whole.

Dark Blue District is District 2. Ted Poe is incumbent here. This district is 65 percent white and McCain got 63 percent here

Yellow district is District 18. This district is 42 percent hispanic, 37 percent black, 18 percent white, and 3 percent Asian. Obama got 78 percent here. Sheila Jackson Lee is the incumbent here.

Dark blue district is District 29. Basically takes in some wealthy areas near downtown and also working class areas like NW Pasadena, Jacinto City, Galena Park, South Houston. Gene Green is the incumbent here and is safe in a 54 percent hispanic and 62 percent Obama district.

Silver district is District 25. Probably one of the most diverse districts in the country. 32 percent white, 28 percent hispanic, 26 percent black, 13 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 62 percent here. Al Green (no not the singer) is the incumbent here and should be safe, although not as safe as he was in his old district.

Pink District is District 22. This is my big F#ck you to Tom DeLay. A 40 percent white district, 27 percent black, 22 percent hispanic district. Obama got 55 percent here. Lean Dem district, but Pete Olson could survive for a few cycles if he runs as a moderate.

Purple district is District 7. Basically the wealthy areas of midwest Harris County. 60 percent white and 61 percent McCain. Culberson should be fine here.

Light blue district is District 33. Takes in the most exurban and most republican parts of Harris County. 71 percent white, 67 percent McCain district.

[freepcrusher]

this is Northeast Texas. The purple district is District 3. It is basically the same as old district 4 except that it doesn't have Rockwall County and has more of Collin County in it. This would be a safe republican district at 79 percent white and 68 percent McCain.

[freepcrusher]

this is a zoomed out area of the state as a whole. Other districts is District 19 in dark pink which is Lubbock Midland area and snakes around to Edwards Plateau. Mike Conaway would face Randy Nawguhbower in a primary. Whoever would win the primary would be safe because the district is 61 percent white and McCain got 73 percent here.

The light pink district is District 6. With the removal of the Fort Worth area, this district becomes much more republican. This district is 77 percent white and McCain got 72 percent here.

The dark purple district west of the metroplex is District 17. This is similar to Charlie Stenholm's old district. He could run here if he wanted too, but he's probably a little old to be making a comeback as he would be 74 in 2012. If he doesn't want to run, a republican will undoubtedly win here. The republicanism in this county is fairly recent. Bill Clinton managed to win a few of the counties in this district. This is the thesis for "What's the Matter with Kansas?" This district is 81 percent white and McCain got 75 percent here.

The light green district east of the metroplex is District 1. This is in many ways the western edge of the deep south. This is Gohmert's district and will be fine in a 76 percent white and a 71 percent McCain district

[freepcrusher]

This light green district is District 13. This district is 65 percent white and would easily be in the top ten most republican districts in the nation as McCain got 76 percent here.

[freepcrusher]

This is the San Antonio area. Pink district is District 20. This is Charlie Gonzalez's district and is 65 percent hispanic. Obama got 60 percent here.

The gold district is District 23. This is Canseco's district. This district is 55 percent hispanic. Canseco is in the same scenario as Pete Olsen. He would represent a 55 percent Obama district and may survive a few cycles, but the next time a dem wave year comes, he's gone.

The tan district is District 21. This takes in the only strong GOP areas in Bexar County and also some German counties to the NW. Lamar Smith is a lot safer in a 74 percent white and 67 percent McCain district.

[minionofmidas]

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.



Enhances:

Dallas



Houston



San Antonio with Austin



This is far from perfect - there's still a few Democrats marooned in Dallas area Republican districts, there's still far too few Republicans trapped in Houston area Democratic districts, and those border districts slice it far too close - I had 50.5% Obama as a minimum goal, but in the end I decided I didn't want to draw that necessary tentacle into Austin or revisit the El Paso split, and was satisfied with a plurality in two of them.

CD2 Beaumont and Galveston, 52% Obama, 45% white, 29% black, 21% hispanic
CD5 SE Dallas and adjoining rural parts, 52% Obama, 60% white
CD7 NW Houston, 55% Obama, 38% white, 34% hispanic, 20% black
CD9 SW Houston, 55% Obama, 32% white, 30% hispanic, 25% black
CD11 a new additional bacon strip to go between Cuellar and Hinojosa, 50% Obama, 62% hispanic
CD12 Fort Worth, 55% Obama, 48% white, 28% hispanic, 19% black
CD15 made a lot more erose, 52% Obama, 69% hispanic
CD16 El Paso to Odessa, 55% Obama, 66% hispanic
CD18 Central Houston, 56% Obama, 49% white, 24% black, 22% hispanic
CD20 WC San Antonio, 51% Obama, 53% hispanic
CD21 EC San Antonio, 51% Obama, 47% hispanic, 40% white
CD22 South Houston, a whopping 62% Obama, 36% white, 33% black, 21% hispanic
CD23 still the huge southwestern district, but now with no San Antonio, only half of Laredo, but with Midland, half of Odessa, half of Abilene and a much larger share of El Paso. 51% Obama, 71% hispanic
CD25 roughly where it was, 55% Obama, 57% white
CD27 roughly as is, 52% Obama, 67% hispanic
CD28 now stretching all the way from Brownsville to Abilene. 53% Obama, 75% hispanic
CD29 East Houston, 55% Obama, 59% hispanic
CD30 East Dallas, 54% Obama, 48% white, 26% hispanic, 22% black
CD31 NW Austin, Round Rock, 52% Obama, 75% white
CD32 Central Dallas, 53% Obama, 45% white, 34% hispanic
CD33 West Dallas County, 53% Obama, 42% white, 39% hispanic
CD34 NE Austin and points north, 56% Obama, 53% white

Oh yeah, Republicans get districts too.
CD1 East Texas, 70% McCain
CD2 Collin County, 61% McCain
CD4 NE Texas, 69% McCain
CD6 suburban Forth Worth, 59% McCain
CD8 Montgomery County and stuff, 70% McCain
CD10 NW Houston and points beyond, 67% McCain
CD13 NW Texas, 76% McCain
CD14 Ronpaulland, 67% McCain
CD17 West Central Texas, 74% McCain
CD19 NW Texas, 72% McCain
CD24 Tarrant/Denton, 63% McCain
CD26 NW Dallas Metro, 68% McCain
CD35 from the southern outskirts of Dallas to Orange County, 70% McCain
CD36 and to think that this actually includes all of Waco. 68% McCain

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.

Martin is a name used in Germany? I thought it was French.

[minionofmidas]

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.

Martin is a name used in Germany?

Ever heard of Luther?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.

Martin is a name used in Germany?

Ever heard of Luther?

Do you mean the German churchman or the badly written TV cop show?