US House Redistricting: Texas

[Sam Spade]

TX-4 (Of Memories Past)
Incumbent Home: Rockwell (Rockwell County)
Voting: McCain 70% (69%), Obama 29% (30%)
Race: White 78%, Black 11%, Hispanic 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: In the olden days of Texas politics, no Republican would ever draw this type of CD.  It's got too many rural parts, leaving room for Dems to come in and snatch the thing up.  Now, it will be the most McCain CD in Texas.  Hall's new seat drops all of the Collin County suburbs, part of Grayson County and some of Texarkana to go down south, picking up parts of former TX-5 and TX-6, as well as half of Lufkin (including the black parts).





TX-5 (Hensarling's Haunt)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 61% (63%), Obama 38% (36%)
Race: White 70%, Hispanic 15%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: The ugliness of this CD is because I can't remember whether Hensarling lives in Mesquite or in White Rock Lake, and because of the necessities for the new Hispanic majority-minority district.  The CD has also been tightened up a bit, removing all of the territory to the South, removing a lot of the territory to the East, and taking in some of Joe Barton's Dallas suburbs.



TX-6 (Best Lunch Ever Was in Ennis, Texas - It Was Also the Scariest)
Incumbent Home: Ennis (Ellis County)
Voting: McCain 61% (60%), Obama 38% (40%)
Race: White 70%, Black 14%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 3%
Comment: Similar to the present TX-6, except some Fort Worth suburbs are taken away.  To compensate that, the CD moves South and adds half of Lufkin, as well as Huntsville (Walker County) and even half of Grimes County!  Truly an I-45 CD now.  

[Sam Spade]

TX-7 (Rich Houstonians Still Vote Republican)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: McCain 59% (58.54% exact) (58%), Obama 41% (41%)
Race: White 61%, Hispanic 24%, Asian 8%, Black 6%
Comment: Very careful precinct picking has only pushed the CD up 1% in McCain voting.  Because of the tricks that are necessary in the rest of the state (i.e. Austin), the easiest thing is to leave this CD the way it presently is, which is basically what this gerrymander does.  R+13 should be enough, anyway, even as things brown a bit.  I believe the incumbent lives in the rich suburbs south of I-10.



TX-8 (Why Waste Montgomery County on One Guy)
Incumbent Home: The Woodlands (Montgomery County)
Voting: McCain 68% (74%), Obama 31% (26%)
Race: White 74%, Black 12%, Hispanic 12%, Asian 3%
Comment: In case, you haven't noticed, I divided fast-growing GOP Montgomery County into three (anticipating potential future movements).  Besides, who wants to waste all those votes on Brady?  Anyway, this CD stretches around to gather in black (err.. Dem) strongholds of Port Arthur, Galveston and part of Texas City, in exchange for removing Huntsville and some lesser rural east Texas counties.



TX-9 (The Lesser Al Green)
Incumbent Home: Houston - Alief (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 77% (77%), McCain 22% (23%)
Race: Black 38%, Hispanic 33%, White 17%, Asian 12%, Other 1%
Comment: Much as TX-7, this CD stays pretty much the same, only to expand a little.  Trying to design a second Hispanic-majority CD in Houston is next to impossible unless you want to endanger a Dem seat and/or a GOP seat (especially under the above guidelines), so I just gave up trying.  It's almost impossible to get two Hispanic-majority CDs anyway.

[Sam Spade]

TX-10 (McCaul's Maul)
Incumbent Home: Austin (Travis County)
Voting: McCain 58% (57.57% exact) (55%), Obama 41% (44%)
Race: White 71%, Hispanic 15%, Asian 7%, Black 7%
Comment: Since McCaul lives in Austin, this CD must extend to Austin.  Note that new TX-34 basically does the same thing, so if he lives in TX-34 and not TX-10, he can run there instead (margin is the same).  I have lessened the Austin impact in TX-10 by using TX-34 and doing the evil manuever below (The Dangling Arm of Death).  Some Harris County suburbs are removed, as is Austin and Waller, to TX-34, in exchange for a few hyper-GOP, insanely fast-growing Montgomery County precincts.





TX-11 (The Dangling Arm of Death)
Incumbent Home: Midland (Midland County)
Voting: McCain 61% (74%), Obama 38% (26%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 27%, Black 4%, Asian 3%
Comment: It is nothing but pure evil.  It begins, a much narrower strip than before, which takes up Midland, Odessa, Big Spring and San Angelo, until we reach Burnet County, where the arm stretches out, reaching into the heart of Austin, and castrating all the impotent students and government workers of a chance to pick someone who represents them.  The Bush-God from Midland strikes again against those who fail to worship him.



TX-12 (Granger's Getaway)
Incumbent Home: Fort Worth (Tarrant County)
Voting: McCain 62% (63%), Obama 38% (36%)
Race: White 71%, Hispanic 17%, Black 9%, Asian 3%
Comment: Granger trades some hyper-GOP precincts in North Fort Worth to new TX-36 for some rural, west of Fort Worth, counties.  No real change in voting patterns.

[Sam Spade]

TX-13 (The Dangling Arm of Death - The Sequel)
Incumbent Home: Clarendon (Donley County)
Voting: McCain 73% (77%), Obama 26% (23%)
Race: White 72%, Hispanic 19%, Black 6%, Asian 3%
Comment: Although centered around Amarillo and Wichita Falls, this west Texas strip is also narrower than before, letting new TX-36 take over its dormant rural areas.  Its little Dangling Arm of Death reaches into Denton this time to castrate all those annoying, impotent University of North Texas students.



TX-14 (Ron Paul Land)
Incumbent Home: Surfside (Brazoria County)
Voting: McCain 63% (66%), Obama 37% (33%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 20%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: With the recasting of TX-25 as a Coastal Bend CD, Ron Paul Land gets a rethink.  This version compresses it to most of Brazoria County, Galveston County (minus Galveston), Anahuac County (really the "Deep South") and Harris County "suburbs" along Galveston Bay.  Safely Republican, but less McCain than before.



TX-15 (A Real South Texas "Border" CD For Once)
Incumbent Home: Mercedes (Hidalgo County)
Voting: Obama 75% (60%), McCain 25% (40%)
Race: Hispanic 92%, White 7%, Asian 1%
Comment: In the rather conscious attempt to create a lean GOP, open TX-27 (which it is), I put every solidly Dem precinct in Hinojosa's CD along the border.  This means the CD basically rides the border from Brownsville to McAllen, taking in every rural precinct possible (as these are *always* more Democratic), except for Edinburg, so as to give an opportunity for the party-switcher.

[Sam Spade]

TX-16 (El Paso Is Ugly, But Juarez Is a Hellhole)
Incumbent Home: El Paso (El Paso County)
Voting: Obama 65% (66%), McCain 34% (34%)
Race: Hispanic 76%, White 18%, Black 3%, Asian 2%, Other 1%
Comment:Reyes' CD is basically unchanged from before, except that a few precincts have been moved to TX-28 because of population growth greater than the baseline.



TX-17 (Edwards Ain't Coming Back Man)
Incumbent Home: Bryan (Brazos County)
Voting: McCain 64% (67%), Obama 35% (32%)
Race: White 68%, Black 14%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 4%
Comment: I take away some of Flores' Dallas suburbs and move the district slightly further East while removing the Grimes County, Madisonville, east Brenham parts.  In its place, I add Edwards' old stomping ground - Fort Hood and Killeen.  So you might ask why I want Edwards back?  For the answer, see TX-19's Dangling Arm of Death into Waco's annoying center of blacks and college students that eliminates any future Edwards return...  





TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee is One Annoying B*tch)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 82% (77%), McCain 17% (22%)
Race: Black 49%, Hispanic 26%, White 16%, Asian 5%, Other 1%
Comment: Just so the d*mn woman doesn't get a bigger head than she already has, I'm leaving her at 49% blacks, even though I could well make it 50%.  The CD is basically the same as before, though the precincts are more carefully cut apart (i.e. why is Garden Oaks in her CD now? - those white precincts with some Hispanic browning should be in TX-7)

[Sam Spade]

Other half later today.

[minionofmidas]

TX-13 (The Dangling Arm of Death - The Sequel)

I prefer "The Daughter of the Dangling Arm of Death".

[freepcrusher]

Sam I require you to do the following:

5 Districts entirely within Harris County
3 Districts entirely within Dallas County
2 Districts entirely within Tarrant County
2 Districts entirely within Bexar County
1 District Entirely within Travis County
1 District Entirely Within Collin County
1 District Entirely within El Paso County
1 District Entirely within Hidalgo County

[Sam Spade]

Basically, by playing around with South Texas and West Texas, I managed to create a map which:

1) Holds 24 CDs at 57.50% McCain of higher.
2) Creates 3 safe Dem seats in Houston, 2 in Dallas and 2 in San Antonio/Austin (4 being Hispanic majority-minority CDs)
3) Creates a new TX-15 along the border where Cuellar and Hinojosa must face each other in a primary.
4) Creates a new TX-25 along Corpus Christi with 60% Hispanic and 51% McCain for Farenthold.
5) Creates a new TX-27 with an Edinburg center for the party switcher with 66% Hispanic and 52% McCain.
6) Creates a new TX-28 in west Texas with 64% Hispanic and 53% McCain.

I could even play around and probably avoid the minority-majority CD in Dallas, but I think that may be going too far.  The west Texas CD may well be snatched up by Pete Gallego - I understand that danger.

The map may also be illegal in other ways - it's your choose.  More tonight or tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Basically, by playing around with South Texas and West Texas, I managed to create a map which:

1) Holds 24 CDs at 57.50% McCain of higher.
2) Creates 3 safe Dem seats in Houston, 2 in Dallas and 2 in San Antonio/Austin (4 being Hispanic majority-minority CDs)
3) Creates a new TX-15 along the border where Cuellar and Hinojosa must face each other in a primary.
4) Creates a new TX-25 along Corpus Christi with 60% Hispanic and 51% McCain for Farenthold.
5) Creates a new TX-27 with an Edinburg center for the party switcher with 66% Hispanic and 52% McCain.
6) Creates a new TX-28 in west Texas with 64% Hispanic and 53% McCain.

I could even play around and probably avoid the minority-majority CD in Dallas, but I think that may be going too far.  The west Texas CD may well be snatched up by Pete Gallego - I understand that danger.

The map may also be illegal in other ways - it's your choose.  More tonight or tomorrow.

I'll post the rest of the *nice* map with comments later, as well as the evil one, but as I look over both maps, the nice one is too conciliatory (even though new TX-25 is not minority-majority Hispanic and really safe R) and I suspect this one is probably too stretched.  It's just nearly impossible to get 27-9 if you concede a Dallas Hispanic majority-minority district, and logic says that this is a wise move imo.

26-10 can certainly be done, however, with the creation of the extra Hispanic minority-majority CD as mentioned above, and I can probably get the McCain % up to 54.50% in the two South Texas CDs and stick with the 57.50% in the other 24 CDs. 

Lastly, the combination of Cuellar with Hinojosa, btw, is a move of brilliance, if I may say so.  The map works even better with that bit of deviousness.

[CatoMinor]

Sam, I demand you fix you map and move me back into Texas-08 (East Montgomery County)

and Put Galveston back in Paul's district

[minionofmidas]

Sam, I demand you post the remainder of this particular plan this year. (And no, while it arguably "could be worse", this is probably about as evil as you can get without being shot down by the courts. Actually, that 90-odd% Hispanic district better not border any R-leaning seat if it wants to withstand court challenge.)

[Sam Spade]

Sam, I demand you post the remainder of this particular plan this year. (And no, while it arguably "could be worse", this is probably about as evil as you can get without being shot down by the courts. Actually, that 90-odd% Hispanic district better not border any R-leaning seat if it wants to withstand court challenge.)

Sure - I get caught up doing other things sometimes.  I'll also post the 27-9 attempt within Map #1.  It's ugly, but I like it.

I'm also working on a second map, which is a bit of a rethink on the Texas gerrymander (not that great of one - since Austin still has to be divided into a million parts) and which makes TX-25 into Hispanic minority-majority.  Or very, very close - I'm only aiming for 58.50% Hispanic here, which should be enough for 50%+1 VAP in most of Texas.

The benefit to this second map is that it *looks* a whole lot better - districts are less fajita-strip and county divides are much less common.  And it should be 25-11 safe, with 26-10 probable, unless Farenthold is a real incompetent - and another Republican would probably have a good chance in this CD.

[freepcrusher]

here is my alternative DFW Metroplex. These districts are based on state legislature districts where there are usually 3 or 4 assembly districts embedded within each district, so if one of the legislators want to run for there congress, they can keep their original constituency


this is the entire area zoomed out as a whole


This is Tarrant County. The light green district in the northern part is District 33. This is some wealthy areas we are dealing with like Southlake Grapevine Euless Bedford Richland Hills Wautauga River Oaks etc. This district is 78 percent white and McCain got 65 percent here. This is an open seat.

The light blue district in the central part of the country is District 32. This takes in the urban areas of Fort Worth. This district is diverse at 47 percent white, 26 percent hispanic, 21 percent black, 5 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 56 percent here. This too is an open seat. Lon Burnam may run here.

The dark purplish district in western Tarrant county is District 12. It also takes the surrounding counties as shown above. It goes counterclockwise in taking in some rural areas surrounding Tarrant County. Kay Granger is even safer here. This district is 81 percent white and McCain got 69 percent here.

[freepcrusher]

This is Dallas County. The lime green district (District 30) is basically all of South Dallas and includes Fair Park as well as some southern suburbs like DeSoto, Lancaster, Duncanville. This district is 45 percent black, 29 percent hispanic, 24 percent white, and 2 percent Asian. Obama got 81 percent here. This is a safe dem district obviously

The cerulean district in western Dallas County is District 24 and also takes in some parts of Tarrant County. This district is the most hispanic in the metroplex at 42 percent hispanic. Whites are 40 percent, blacks are 11 percent, and Asians are 7 percent. This looks somewhat similar to Martin Frost's old district, but it also goes north into Coppell, making it less democratic. Obama got 53 percent here. Kenny Marchant is the incumbent and he could keep this seat but he needs to tweak his views to more of a Rockefeller type Republican.

The yellow district is District 5 and takes in Mesquite, the Park Cities, Downtown Dallas, parts of North Dallas as well as parts of Carrollton. Jeb Hensarling would face Pete Sessions in a primary here most likely. This district is 62 percent white and McCain got 52 percent here


This here is the northern suburbs. The district in orange is District 3 it takes in the oldest parts of Plano (Jerry Madden's district) as well as Richardson, Garland, parts of North Dallas, Sachse, Rowlett. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 54 percent here. Safe Republican as long as Johnson is here, lean republican if he retires.

District in light purple (CD 26) takes in most of Plano, as well as a great deal of Denton County like Lewisville, Lake Dallas, Denton, parts of Flower Mound. Michael Burgess would represent this district and at 74 percent white and McCain getting 59 percent here, a republican is safe.

District in red (CD 4) is the poster child of this argument: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129666.0. 83 percent white, 67 percent McCain, enough said. Ralph Hall is the incumbent here, but he will retire eventually, so Jodie Laubenberg or Ken Paxton may run here.

[Sam Spade]

TX-19 (The Dangling Arm of Death - This Time It's Personal)
Incumbent Home: Lubbock (Lubbock County)
Voting: McCain 69% (72%), Obama 30% (29%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 24%, Black 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: TX-19 still takes in Lubbock and Abilene, but the CD is narrowed to a nice little strip by removing a number of pointless West Texas rural counties.  This alteration allows its "dangling arm of death" to invalidate all those minority Democratic precincts in Waco and neuter all those annoying Baylor students.



TX-20 (Gonzalez - Past and Present)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: Obama 62% (63%), McCain 37% (36%)
Race: Hispanic 66%, White 24%, Black 8%, Asian 2%
Comment: Gonzalez's CD moves outward to take in outer Bexar precincts, while ceding a certain amount of inner Bexar precincts to the largely revamped TX-23.



TX-21 (Bexar County Whites Have GOP Tattooed On Their Foreheads)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.10% exact) (58%), Obama 40% (41%)
Race: White 67%, Hispanic 25%, Black 4%, Asian 3%
Comment: My redesign of the TX-21 removes the heart of the German Hill Country and this district's former piece of Austin to give to Canseco in new TX-35.  Since the rest of this CD is growing quite fast, all I need to do is add Hays County to create a nice compact district (for once) that is slightly more Republican than the one before.

[Sam Spade]

TX-22 (Lampson's Temporary Abode)
Incumbent Home: Sugar Land (Fort Bend County)
Voting: McCain 61% (58%), Obama 38% (41%)
Race: White 61%, Hispanic 21%, Asian 10%, Black 8%
Comment: This design exchanges a certain amount of Fort Bend County (not Olson's home in Sugar Land, naturally) for some fast-growing and rather Republican suburbs in NE Harris County, including the already-grown Kingwood area.  This strengthens the Republican lean of the CD already present in the current model.  It also makes the new TX-22 look a bit like Japan...







TX-23 (A Real Hispanic Democratic District This Time)
Incumbent Home: None (pretty sure Doggett doesn't live here)
Voting: Obama 62% (51%), McCain 37% (48%)
Race: Hispanic 60% (59.75% exact), White 24%, Black 13%, Asian 2%
Comment: Another Japan-looking-like snake CD, but any Austin-San Antonio Hispanic majority-minority CD will have to look something like this in order to meet the required VAP.  This is the perfect CD for Ciro Rodriguez to make his return, as most of his old South Bexar stomping grounds remain intact.  Note that the black portions of Austin are found in this CD, whereas the black portions of San Antonio are moved to TX-20 (to create the required VAP number).



TX-24 (Another Boring Metroplex District Heads North)
Incumbent Home: Coppell (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 61% (55%), Obama 39% (44%)
Race: White 72%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 8%, Black 7%
Comment: TX-24 is made considerably more Republican by the creation of TX-33 Hispanic minority-majority district in the middle of Dallas.  This iteration chooses to add further GOP precincts by creating a fajita strip heading northward along the eastern edge of suburbs in Denton County and by grabbing most of rural Cooke County in North Texas.

[Sam Spade]

TX-25 (Farenthold Will Survive Here)
Incumbent Home: Corpus Christi (Nueces County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.18% exact) (40%), Obama 40% (59%)
Race: White 48%, Hispanic 44%, Black 6%, Asian 2%
Comment: Doggett's former TX-25 is completely refashioned, in this map, as a Corpus Christi-Victoria Coastal Bend CD.  Cameron County is removed and replaced by a number of white rural redneck counties to the north that are used to voting for nuts.  The complaint that will be made, naturally, is that there is dilution of Hispanic voters by not creating another Hispanic majority-minority CD in South Texas, which can be done.  The GOP can deal with this, but the result will certainly two, if not three highly marginal CDs.  I've done the three marginal CDs one in another version of the same map - and they are all McCain districts, but barely, and in South Texas, this will create a real problem, if history is any guide.  With the two CDs, I can probably get both up to 53%-54%, but that will be an issue nonetheless.  An interesting alternative will be provided in the second map, which I believe is a more solid 26-10 than this version, but removes the possibility of 27-9.



TX-26 (Burgess' Bulwark)
Incumbent Home: Flower Mound (Denton County)
Voting: McCain 61% (58%), Obama 38% (41%)
Race: White 74%, Hispanic 11%, Black 10%, Asian 6%
Comment: Most of Denton (both college students and Republicans) are removed from TX-26 to add a bigger slice of rich Fort Worth suburbs and poor black areas, including parts of TX-24.  Given the growth in this CD, its confines had to shrink a bit, regardless.





TX-27 (The Party-Switcher's Possibility)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: Obama 50% (50.29% exact) (53%), Obama 49% (46%)
Race: Hispanic 68%, Hispanic 29%, Black 2%, Asian 1%
Comment: This marginal open seat is designed by the GOP either for the party-switcher in Edinburg (note how Edinburg and much of his House seat is nicely included here) or for a GOP official in Cameron County (which comprises most of this CD's population).  Along the border, precincts have been closely analyzed for their Republican-ness.  The rest of the CD includes most of present-day TX-15 except that Hinojosa in Mercedes is carefully drawn out of the CD.

[minionofmidas]

Revenant Ciro!

[Sam Spade]

TX-28 (Along the Border)
Incumbent Home: Laredo (Webb County)
Voting: Obama 65% (56%), McCain 34% (44%)
Race: Hispanic 86%, White 12%, Asian 1%, Black 1%
Comment: The basic change here is removing the German areas around Seguin and the other Hispanic areas around San Antonio in exchange for the long rural border area presently in TX-23.  This strengthens the Obama tilt of the CD.





TX-29 (Green is Not a Brown)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 64% (62%), McCain 35% (38%)
Race: Hispanic 70%, White 18%, Black 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: TX-29 remains basically the same, except with some tightening here and there of the gerrymander and some addition of stronger Obama precincts.





TX-30 (The Part of Dallas You Don't Want to See)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: Obama 78% (82%), Obama 22% (18%)
Race: Black 45%, White 30%, Hispanic 20%, Asian 5%
Comment: I have some fun here going north in a little "octopus tentacle" to pick up some minority precincts, as some of TX-30 has to be cut off in order in order to create new Hispanic minority-majority TX-33.  The other option is going west into Tarrant County, fyi.

[Sam Spade]

TX-31 (Carter's Creation)
Incumbent Home: Round Rock (Williamson County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.19% exact) (58%), Obama 39% (42%)
Race: White 73%, Hispanic 15%, Black 8%, Asian 3%
Comment: TX-31 basically remains the same, exchanging some stronger McCain precincts for weaker McCain precincts, in particular giving Killeen and Fort Hood back to TX-17.  Carter lives in Round Rock, the most Southern part of Williamson County, so maps almost have to keep Williamson County in one piece.





TX-32 (Reworking Sessions)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 59% (58.95% exact) (53%), Obama 40% (46%)
Race: White 73%, Hispanic 15%, Black 8%, Asian 3%
Comment: The large Hispanic part of TX-32 is detached to create new TX-33 Hispanic minority-majority district.  In exchange, Sessions gets the Dallas portion of TX-3, the Collin County part of TX-4, and even stretches north to take in half of Grayson County from TX-4.  In other words, much like Johnson in TX-3, Sessions' CD is extended to take in newer line suburbs to protect against future demographic changes



TX-33 (Maybe Martin Frost Can Run Here)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: Obama 66%, McCain 33%
Race: Hispanic 60% (59.97% exact), White 23%, Black 13%, Asian 3%
Comment: From the ruins of TX-24, TX-30 and TX-32 comes the new Hispanic CD in Dallas.  I picked my fine tooth comb through all the Metroplex precincts, and this is basically the only way it can be designed to get it around the 60% magic number, so don't go around thinking there are other possibilities...

[Sam Spade]

TX-34 (Recreating Another McCaul Maul)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: McCain 58% (57.96% exact), Obama 41%
Race: White 64%, Hispanic 22%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: Pushing TX-10 further north allows us to create its cousin, TX-34, which takes in west Harris County suburbs, Fort Bend suburbs from TX-22 and Brazoria County areas from TX-14 to balance its dangling arm into the Austin interior..



TX-35 (Forcing Hispanic GOPers to Represent GOP Whites Yet Again)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: McCain 58% (57.98%), Obama 41%
Race: White 69%, Hispanic 24%, Asian 3%, Black%
Comment: I'm pretty sure Canseco resides here - if I'm wrong, some alterations can be made without destroying the CD, so...  In short, TX-35 takes the center of German Hill Country and the Austin environs from Smith and attaches it onto TX-23's GOP part of Bexar County, and some rural GOP areas (Uvalde, Hondo and the boonies).





TX-36 (A Fourth West Texas District?)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: McCain 64%, Obama 35%
Race: White 59%, Hispanic 28%, Black 10%, Asian 3%
Comment: This new TX-36 is a combination of rural west Texas counties dropped by TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 and leftover Fort Worth and Denton suburbs from TX-12 and TX-26.  This will be a fair fight between rural interests and suburban interests as a decent bit of the Fort Worth areas (enough to matter in the population contest) are minority-based black areas that vote Democratic.

[Sam Spade]

And later - something quite different...

[muon2]

Sam, I think that your DFW minority districts are not as VRA-proof as the TX GOP might want. This provides more margin to correct for the VAP, and even citizen VAP if needed. This will be especially needed since this would go through the Obama DOJ. So, here's my bullet-proof minority districts for the Metroplex.



CD 30:
White 27%, Black 53%, Asian 3%, Hispanic 16%
Obama 79%, McCain 20%

CD 33:
White 21%, Black 9%, Asian 3%, Hispanic 66%
Obama 66%, McCain 33%

[Torie]

Yes, having now just looked at the question (because I was in a state of total confusion myself), apparently Justice Kennedy was vague in Bartlett v Strickland (did he mean to be vague, or was he just sloppy?), about whether the relevant minority class under the VRA was VAP or citizen VAP. His language just says VAP, but a later lower court opined in REYES v. CITY OF FARMERS BRANCH TEXAS that  given the context of the relevant phrase in Bartlett, and the fact that the issue of VAP versus citizen VAP was not before the Bartlett court, and  that the whole concept of voting means eligible to vote,  what Justice Kennedy really meant to say was citizen VAP, and not just VAP, and so ruled.

And since that lower court was the 5th Circuit, that holding is the governing authority for the moment for Texas, unless and until Justice Kennedy in a later case rules that no, when he wrote VAP, and did not include the qualifier "citizen," that was because he intended not to. It is all very odd, since the lower court in Bartlett which was appealed to SCOTUS, explicitly discussed the issue of citizen versus non-citizen, and explicitly ruled that the relevant number was citizen VAP, and one cannot not include the non citizen minority VAP in the count.

Fun stuff isn't it?