US House Redistricting: Texas

[Brittain33]

Plan released.

At first glance: it creates a Tarrant-only Dem district.

Keeps Travis split three ways but gives Doggett a compact, winnable district not including Bexar.

35th district is Hispanic and based in Bexar County.

Looks like it restores 27th as a Hispanic district and moves Farenthold into a 34th district equivalent to what the R's had done with 27 before, but only a small slice of Nueces.

I can't analyze Bexar, but Canseco got some territory that the R gerrymander had assigned to TX-20 and lost some in north Bexar, so that can't be good for him. He picked up some rural territory that is heavily Hispanic, but whose electorate in many cases is probably still quite R.

12 D districts plus whatever TX-23 is.

[Brittain33]

At least 10 districts wander into Harris County. I don't understand what they did with TX-2.

[krazen1211]

Plan released.

At first glance: it creates a Tarrant-only Dem district.

Keeps Travis split three ways but gives Doggett a compact, winnable district not including Bexar.

35th district is Hispanic and based in Bexar County.

Looks like it restores 27th as a Hispanic district and moves Farenthold into a 34th district equivalent to what the R's had done with 27 before, but only a small slice of Nueces.

I can't analyze Bexar, but Canseco got some territory that the R gerrymander had assigned to TX-20 and lost some in north Bexar, so that can't be good for him. He picked up some rural territory that is heavily Hispanic, but whose electorate in many cases is probably still quite R.

12 D districts plus whatever TX-23 is.

Canseco is in a 51% Obama district. Same as he just won. The Democrats get their 9 + TX-27 +  TX-33 and probably TX-35, although that one is only 54.5% Obama too.

[minionofmidas]

Canseco's new district is more Democratic than the one he won in 2010 (edit: This looks like a reply to Krazen now. It isn't. And I can't back it up besides "I read it on the internet".)

That Tarrant district they drew is 40% Hispanic, 28% White, 27% Black... these kind of demographics frequently favor Black candidates.
And I wonder about that 35th - they drew it out of Austin so it's only 55% Hispanic now, even though still clearly Dem-leaning (enough white Dems in Hays. Also, the Black bits of Bexar). Maybe they figure that it's safely enough Hispanic because there's two obvious Representative-apparents, and both are Hispanic - Senor Ciro Rodriguez, and Doggett's primary opponent Joaquin Castro.

Somebody said that McCaul might be in trouble... looks exaggerated to me, though I wouldn't be surprised to hear Obama won the district.
EDIT: Didn't. Went up three points, though.

[krazen1211]

Canseco's new district is more Democratic than the one he won in 2010 (edit: This looks like a reply to Krazen now. It isn't. And I can't back it up besides "I read it on the internet".)

That Tarrant district they drew is 40% Hispanic, 28% White, 27% Black... these kind of demographics frequently favor Black candidates.
And I wonder about that 35th - they drew it out of Austin so it's only 55% Hispanic now, even though still clearly Dem-leaning (enough white Dems in Hays. Also, the Black bits of Bexar). Maybe they figure that it's safely enough Hispanic because there's one obvious Representative-apparent, and he's Hispanic - Senor Ciro Rodriguez.

Somebody said that McCaul might be in trouble... looks exaggerated to me, though I wouldn't be surprised to hear Obama won the district.

No need to speculate. Pretty much every incumbent has a safe district. The McCaul district spans 2 very expensive metros and McCain got 52% there.

http://d2o6nd3dubbyr6.cloudfront.net/media/documents/PlanC220_RED206_2008G_Statewides.pdf

[Brittain33]

Great, so if future elections are like 2010 and no one brings up his bankruptcies, Canseco is home free.

D+3 or
D+4.

[krazen1211]

Great, so if future elections are like 2010 and no one brings up his bankruptcies, Canseco is home free.

D+3 or
D+4.

He also needs a quality opponent of course. Not much of Bexar is left there and Bexar Democrats have their own new district.

[minionofmidas]

Great, so if future elections are like 2010 and no one brings up his bankruptcies, Canseco is home free.

D+3 or
D+4.

He also needs a quality opponent of course. Not much of Bexar is left there and Bexar Democrats have their own new district.

*looks up who represents Eagle Pass and Del Rio in the Texas State House*

Pete Gallego for Congress?

Obama share went up by 0.4 percentage points, btw. Not much (Canseco would still have won under these lines... ignoring the fact that his opponent wouldn't have been there) but every little bit helps.

I wonder where it's coming from. They added a number of Permian counties after all, and just two Rio Grande Valley rural counties, and those cast 5k odd votes together (59% Obama both). And the withdrawal out of Bexar ought to hurt Dems. Must have been doing some pretty clever stuff in El Paso.

[timothyinMD]

The Bexar and Travis splits are kinda weird, and there is no need for Harris to be cut in 10, but overall I think it's a good map

[Brittain33]

Ciro was never a quality candidate.

[krazen1211]

The Bexar and Travis splits are kinda weird, and there is no need for Harris to be cut in 10, but overall I think it's a good map

It also doesn't seem to be creating any new Hispanic CVAP majority districts. Great map for Veasey and Doggett of course, but neither is Hispanic.

Obviously we will be seeing a 2013 redistricting session.

[minionofmidas]

And suddenly it all made sense.



See what they did there?

[minionofmidas]

The Bexar and Travis splits are kinda weird, and there is no need for Harris to be cut in 10, but overall I think it's a good map

It also doesn't seem to be creating any new Hispanic CVAP majority districts. Great map for Veasey and Doggett of course, but neither is Hispanic.

Obviously we will be seeing a 2013 redistricting session.

Strictly speaking the preclearance case isn't lost yet, right? (Obviously, in a full trial the state would have to prove beyond reasonable doubt that it neither intended to nor accidentally discriminated against any minority, so, yeah.)

[krazen1211]

The Bexar and Travis splits are kinda weird, and there is no need for Harris to be cut in 10, but overall I think it's a good map

It also doesn't seem to be creating any new Hispanic CVAP majority districts. Great map for Veasey and Doggett of course, but neither is Hispanic.

Obviously we will be seeing a 2013 redistricting session.

Strictly speaking the preclearance case isn't lost yet, right? (Obviously, in a full trial the state would have to prove beyond reasonable doubt that it neither intended to nor accidentally discriminated against any minority, so, yeah.)

No, it's not lost. Strickly speaking of course that won't be settled for a while. If the GOP wins presumably they will ask for these internim maps to be immediately tossed.

We could see another 2006 situation with election day primaries and a runoff.

The TX-23 proposed by the interim plan is certainly much better for Canseco than the 58% Obama DOJ plan talked about a couple days ago. I would hope they leave the entire Valley are alone and redraw DFW and Austin to bust up the 2 districts I mentioned before.

[jimrtex]

At least 10 districts wander into Harris County. I don't understand what they did with TX-2.

The legislature drew TX-36 and included the eastern part of Harris County, which is not particularly heavily populated.  TX-2 was northeastern and northern Harris County, and then came down the western edge of TX-18.

The court instead connected TX-36 to SE Harris County, which makes absolutely no sense.  And then they drew TX-29 a little further east.  into Baytown, and shifted TX-18 northward and added to the NW of arm of TX-18 which is a fairly Hispanic area.   Since TX-18 went west, TX-2 had to swing out even further, and so it gives that strange hook on the western end.

Given that they were supposed to simply add 4 districts and equalize population, they made an awful lot of changes.  They also started from the legislature drawn map, which seems odd since it hasn't been precleared.

I don't see that they really changed TX-23 that much and it took in a more Republican area of El Paso.  It certainly wasn't a big enough change to support a claim that TX-23 couldn't be prceleared.  So that means they changed the San Antonio-Austin district for the sake of change.

[nclib]

This is great news.

The Bexar and Travis splits are kinda weird, and there is no need for Harris to be cut in 10, but overall I think it's a good map

It also doesn't seem to be creating any new Hispanic CVAP majority districts. Great map for Veasey and Doggett of course, but neither is Hispanic.

Obviously we will be seeing a 2013 redistricting session.

Even if Obama wins? Or could the GOP pass an equally partisan map in 2013 that would pass the Justice Dept?

[krazen1211]

This is great news.

The Bexar and Travis splits are kinda weird, and there is no need for Harris to be cut in 10, but overall I think it's a good map

It also doesn't seem to be creating any new Hispanic CVAP majority districts. Great map for Veasey and Doggett of course, but neither is Hispanic.

Obviously we will be seeing a 2013 redistricting session.

Even if Obama wins? Or could the GOP pass an equally partisan map in 2013 that would pass the Justice Dept?

Of course, they don't like Doggett and they certainly don't like that self serving Veasey.

[redcommander]

Why did Republicans shoot themselves in the foot? They could have gerrymandered the hell out of the state and still complied by VRA.

[jimrtex]

And suddenly it all made sense.



See what they did there?

Took a district that had about the right population and transferred territory to a district that was already overpopulated?

BTW, one of the judges is a brother-in-law of Sen.Leticia Van de Putte, who was one of the quorum busters back in 2003.  When the judge left the Texas House, Van de Putte took his seat.

[krazen1211]

*looks up who represents Eagle Pass and Del Rio in the Texas State House*

Pete Gallego for Congress?

Obama share went up by 0.4 percentage points, btw. Not much (Canseco would still have won under these lines... ignoring the fact that his opponent wouldn't have been there) but every little bit helps.

I wonder where it's coming from. They added a number of Permian counties after all, and just two Rio Grande Valley rural counties, and those cast 5k odd votes together (59% Obama both). And the withdrawal out of Bexar ought to hurt Dems. Must have been doing some pretty clever stuff in El Paso.

Indeed, if you look at El Paso they did a solid job plucking out some GOP areas for TX-23 and putting all the Democrats in TX-16. Quite favorable to Canseco.

Then of course you get TX-33 which is just created out of thin air and certainly not based on any existing legislative intent.

Really odd map overall.

[dpmapper]

*looks up who represents Eagle Pass and Del Rio in the Texas State House*

Pete Gallego for Congress?

Obama share went up by 0.4 percentage points, btw. Not much (Canseco would still have won under these lines... ignoring the fact that his opponent wouldn't have been there) but every little bit helps.

I wonder where it's coming from. They added a number of Permian counties after all, and just two Rio Grande Valley rural counties, and those cast 5k odd votes together (59% Obama both). And the withdrawal out of Bexar ought to hurt Dems. Must have been doing some pretty clever stuff in El Paso.

Indeed, if you look at El Paso they did a solid job plucking out some GOP areas for TX-23 and putting all the Democrats in TX-16. Quite favorable to Canseco.

Then of course you get TX-33 which is just created out of thin air and certainly not based on any existing legislative intent.

Really odd map overall.

I don't understand why TX-23 has to go all the way to El Paso.  Most of the counties in the trans-Pecos are bluish and TX-23 can get its Hispanics from redder areas elsewhere.  Let the Midland district soak up those voters. 

[Sam Spade]

So, it will basically end up being a 23-13 or 24-12 map.  The real toss-up seat is the Canseco one, but Dems will need to run the right candidate (Gallegos would be the correct choice).  McCaul's seat is too partisanly divided (as well as geographically divided) for Dems to have a chance there, for now.

The obvious mistake the GOP made again was to not draw a Hispanic district in DFW.  That being said, what the court did in Dallas really makes no sense.  I would be surprised in the GOP doesn't realize its mistake this time and correct in 2013.  As for the rest of the map, the protection of Doggett will probably be addressed by the GOP in 2013.  As said many times here, the correct road to go would have been 25-11 (Canseco would always have some issues, so 24-12), but draw a Hispanic district or two looking towards the future.

[dpmapper]

So, it will basically end up being a 23-13 or 24-12 map.  The real toss-up seat is the Canseco one, but Dems will need to run the right candidate (Gallegos would be the correct choice).  McCaul's seat is too partisanly divided (as well as geographically divided) for Dems to have a chance there, for now.

The obvious mistake the GOP made again was to not draw a Hispanic district in DFW.  That being said, what the court did in Dallas really makes no sense.  I would be surprised in the GOP doesn't realize its mistake this time and correct in 2013.  As for the rest of the map, the protection of Doggett will probably be addressed by the GOP in 2013.  As said many times here, the correct road to go would have been 25-11 (Canseco would always have some issues, so 24-12), but draw a Hispanic district or two looking towards the future.

They should do 24-9-3, with the 9 being:
* 6 Hispanic seats in El Paso, San Antonio, San Antonio-Austin, Laredo-McAllen, McAllen/Brownsville-Corpus (picking out the worst parts), DFW
* SJL and Al Green in Houston, and the black district in DFW

and the 3 being 3 Hispanic seats that are roughly 49-51% McCain - one for Canseco, one for Farenthold (Harlingen-Corpus), and one in the Houston area (Gene Green's seat). 

How hard would that have been to figure out? 

[minionofmidas]

And suddenly it all made sense.



See what they did there?

Took a district that had about the right population and transferred territory to a district that was already overpopulated?

Fun fact: Their CD20 has exactly the same racial breakdown as the old one had in 2002.

McCaul's district is not nearly as geographically divided as it used to be, fwiw. It's very much a Travis-Williamson district with pieces all the way into Harris added on now, not really a Travis-to-Harris district.

[Brittain33]

Lewis, what did you have in mind with your query?