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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Texas  (Read 46777 times)
muon2
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« Reply #750 on: August 30, 2012, 04:41:32 pm »

As I read the opinion I was struck at the number of times the decision pointed out the differences between sec 5 and sec 2 so they could come to their conclusions. That may also be something that gives SCOTUS pause. I also found the dissent on CD 25 far more compelling than the majority from a methodological viewpoint.
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« Reply #751 on: August 30, 2012, 08:11:20 pm »
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As I read the opinion I was struck at the number of times the decision pointed out the differences between sec 5 and sec 2 so they could come to their conclusions. That may also be something that gives SCOTUS pause. I also found the dissent on CD 25 far more compelling than the majority from a methodological viewpoint.

The dissenting judge noted that the logic used would protect any and every district where Democrats get 50% of the vote.

As an aside, will LULAC be arguing that the interim map's TX-33 when LULAC and Hispanic preferred candidate Garcia had his district captured by Marc Veasey? I wonder.
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« Reply #752 on: August 31, 2012, 10:19:34 am »
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As I read the opinion I was struck at the number of times the decision pointed out the differences between sec 5 and sec 2 so they could come to their conclusions. That may also be something that gives SCOTUS pause. I also found the dissent on CD 25 far more compelling than the majority from a methodological viewpoint.

This is the type of evidence used by that opinion:

Quote from: Texas v USA, majority opinion on TX-25
Representative Dukes provided specific examples of elections to support her analysis of minority groups’ voting power in CD 25. She recalled the 2008 election for Travis County Tax Assessor, in which the African-American supported by the coalition successfully defeated, with 74% of the vote, an Anglo male “progressive Democrat.”

Nelda Wells Spears was the tax assessor-collector for nearly 20 years.   In Texas, it is traditional to write the checks for taxes to the name of the county tax assessor, with or without their title, so:

"Nelda Spears" or "Nelda Spears Travis County Tax Assessor" rather than "Travis County" or "Travis County Tax Assessor".   Vehicle registration in Texas is handled by the counties, so that anyone who owned a home or a car in Travis County had likely written a check to the office.   So the incumbent has higher name recognition than you would otherwise expect for the office.

She was facing Glen Maxey, the first openly gay Texas legislator, who was recently elected as the LGBT member of the DNC.   In Texas, the Tax Assessor-Collector is also the voter registrar (a legacy of when the the office collected the poll tax).  Maxey felt it was the key job of the office to lobby the legislature on voter registration and other matters, rather than run a professional office that handles millions of dollars and 100s of 1000s of transactions.

In the 2008 primary, Dukes herself was challenged as being a Craddick D, a Democrat who had been appointed a committee chair and supported Craddick.  I think she was the only Craddick D who survived a primary challenge, and she did so by emphasizing that he did was what was in the best interest of her (Black) constituents, rather than kowtowing to the Democratic party elite (in a 79% Obama district).

Spears herself carried every precinct in Travis County, but a tiny one that Maxey carried on a 1:0 vote, and he managed to get above 40% in just a few precincts.  Because Spears was above 90% in some precincts vs 74% countywide, does that prove Blacks are essential to victory of a Democrat, or simply that they are even more likely to vote for a long-time county incumbent who is Black, particularly when they may feel that the Democratic elite are trying to knock off their representative in the same primary, than other voters.

Spears retired in 2011, and in the 2012 primary endorsed a long time deputy, serving as his campaign treasurer.

Spears endorses Wilson

He lost with 25% of the vote to an Anglo male.   There was more of a mix of results.  While Wilson did not win any precincts with 90% of the vote, he did win some with substantial majorities.  

The 2008 race was coincident with the presidential primary, which had 4.4 times as many votes (Obama carried Travis County with 63%, while losing statewide to Clinton).
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« Reply #753 on: August 31, 2012, 05:32:20 pm »
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LULAC attempted to throw a hail mary to get the judges to re-enact plan C220 (this was the original San Antonio Court plan that was tossed at the SCOTUS).


The San Antonio Court has declined citing the timeline. Thus, elections will proceed under plan C235.


C185 is thus scrapped, and will almost certainly be moot in 2013 when the legislature returns to do redistricting.
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« Reply #754 on: August 31, 2012, 07:13:24 pm »
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LULAC attempted to throw a hail mary to get the judges to re-enact plan C220 (this was the original San Antonio Court plan that was tossed at the SCOTUS).

The San Antonio Court has declined citing the timeline. Thus, elections will proceed under plan C235.

C185 is thus scrapped, and will almost certainly be moot in 2013 when the legislature returns to do redistricting.
Texas has appealed the redistricting decision to the Supreme Court.
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« Reply #755 on: September 01, 2012, 03:51:58 am »
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The San Antonio Court has declined citing the timeline. Thus, elections will proceed under plan C235.


C185 is thus scrapped, and will almost certainly be moot in 2013 when the legislature returns to do redistricting.
Are these respectively the lines used in the primary and the map passed by the state lege?
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« Reply #756 on: September 01, 2012, 08:25:04 am »
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The San Antonio Court has declined citing the timeline. Thus, elections will proceed under plan C235.


C185 is thus scrapped, and will almost certainly be moot in 2013 when the legislature returns to do redistricting.
Are these respectively the lines used in the primary and the map passed by the state lege?

C220 - San Antonio initial plan
C185 - Legislature map
C235 - Court map based on lege


C235 takes C185, builds the Veasey district, and makes minor tweaks elsewhere.
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« Reply #757 on: September 01, 2012, 08:28:02 am »
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The San Antonio Court has declined citing the timeline. Thus, elections will proceed under plan C235.


C185 is thus scrapped, and will almost certainly be moot in 2013 when the legislature returns to do redistricting.
Are these respectively the lines used in the primary and the map passed by the state lege?

C220 - San Antonio initial plan
C185 - Legislature map
C235 - Court map based on lege


C235 takes C185, builds the Veasey district, and makes minor tweaks elsewhere.
Yeah, I remember their relationship to each other, I just don't memorize official names/numbers. Smiley
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« Reply #758 on: September 01, 2012, 10:03:51 pm »
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The San Antonio Court has declined citing the timeline. Thus, elections will proceed under plan C235.

C185 is thus scrapped, and will almost certainly be moot in 2013 when the legislature returns to do redistricting.
Are these respectively the lines used in the primary and the map passed by the state lege?

C220 - San Antonio initial plan
C185 - Legislature map
C235 - Court map based on lege


C235 takes C185, builds the Veasey district, and makes minor tweaks elsewhere.
Yeah, I remember their relationship to each other, I just don't memorize official names/numbers. Smiley

Texas Legislative Council - Redistricting

Michael Li's Texas redistricting blog

US Redistricting
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« Reply #759 on: May 27, 2013, 06:21:33 pm »
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It appears that TX may re-redistrict soon.

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20130527-breaking-news-governor-announces-special-texas-legislature-session-on-redistricting.ece
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« Reply #760 on: May 28, 2013, 07:39:13 am »
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The description of the session makes it sound as if they'll ratify the current districts.
Does that sound plausible?
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« Reply #761 on: May 28, 2013, 10:24:10 am »
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The description of the session makes it sound as if they'll ratify the current districts.
Does that sound plausible?
My understanding is that the current districts may be a little more Democratic friendly that the TXGOP likes it, as they were drawn by the courts. I could be wrong though.
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« Reply #762 on: May 28, 2013, 01:40:08 pm »
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The special session will consider the following issue:

Legislation which ratifies and adopts the interim redistricting plans ordered by the federal district court as the permanent plans for districts used to elect members of the Texas House of Representatives, Texas Senate and United States House of Representatives.
That's pretty clearcut, and the maps are of course ones drawn by Republicans, as emended by the courts, as opposed to actual court-drawn maps. A new even more Republican map will inevitably come under close court scrutiny yet again.

Whether all of the Texas House and Senate Republican caucus see things the same way is another matter entirely.
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« Reply #763 on: May 28, 2013, 09:55:25 pm »
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The description of the session makes it sound as if they'll ratify the current districts.
Does that sound plausible?
The governor's call says:

"Legislation which ratifies and adopts the interim redistricting plans ordered by the federal district court as the permanent plans for districts used to elect members of the Texas House of Representatives, Texas Senate and United States House of Representatives."

A literal interpretation would say that the only legislation that could be considered are the interim maps.  I doubt that would stand up to a separation of powers challenge.  Otherwise, a governor could draft bills and say pass this.  And of course a legislature may not bind a future legislature, so a plan could not be permanent.
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« Reply #764 on: June 13, 2013, 12:25:32 pm »
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These maps passed the Senate committee.
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« Reply #765 on: June 25, 2013, 01:44:47 pm »
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The special session will consider the following issue:

Legislation which ratifies and adopts the interim redistricting plans ordered by the federal district court as the permanent plans for districts used to elect members of the Texas House of Representatives, Texas Senate and United States House of Representatives.
That's pretty clearcut, and the maps are of course ones drawn by Republicans, as emended by the courts, as opposed to actual court-drawn maps. A new even more Republican map will inevitably come under close court scrutiny yet again.

Whether all of the Texas House and Senate Republican caucus see things the same way is another matter entirely.


Gov. Rick Perry could decide to veto voting maps recently completed by the Texas Legislature as a result of today's decision from the Supreme Court, calling a new special session and allowing conservatives to pass new maps that would have not passed under the now defunct Section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.




There is some discussion that the maps passed by the legislature in 2011 are now immediately in effect until Rick Perry decides to sign the interim maps into permanent maps.

The difference is a handful of House districts, 1 congressional district, and perhaps 1 Senate district.
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« Reply #766 on: June 25, 2013, 02:29:22 pm »
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The special session will consider the following issue:

Legislation which ratifies and adopts the interim redistricting plans ordered by the federal district court as the permanent plans for districts used to elect members of the Texas House of Representatives, Texas Senate and United States House of Representatives.
That's pretty clearcut, and the maps are of course ones drawn by Republicans, as emended by the courts, as opposed to actual court-drawn maps. A new even more Republican map will inevitably come under close court scrutiny yet again.

Whether all of the Texas House and Senate Republican caucus see things the same way is another matter entirely.


Gov. Rick Perry could decide to veto voting maps recently completed by the Texas Legislature as a result of today's decision from the Supreme Court, calling a new special session and allowing conservatives to pass new maps that would have not passed under the now defunct Section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.




There is some discussion that the maps passed by the legislature in 2011 are now immediately in effect until Rick Perry decides to sign the interim maps into permanent maps.

The difference is a handful of House districts, 1 congressional district, and perhaps 1 Senate district.

TX-23 still needs to be 50% Hispanic CVAP does it not?  Did the 2011 map meet that number?
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« Reply #767 on: June 25, 2013, 02:37:26 pm »
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The special session will consider the following issue:

Legislation which ratifies and adopts the interim redistricting plans ordered by the federal district court as the permanent plans for districts used to elect members of the Texas House of Representatives, Texas Senate and United States House of Representatives.
That's pretty clearcut, and the maps are of course ones drawn by Republicans, as emended by the courts, as opposed to actual court-drawn maps. A new even more Republican map will inevitably come under close court scrutiny yet again.

Whether all of the Texas House and Senate Republican caucus see things the same way is another matter entirely.


Gov. Rick Perry could decide to veto voting maps recently completed by the Texas Legislature as a result of today's decision from the Supreme Court, calling a new special session and allowing conservatives to pass new maps that would have not passed under the now defunct Section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.




There is some discussion that the maps passed by the legislature in 2011 are now immediately in effect until Rick Perry decides to sign the interim maps into permanent maps.

The difference is a handful of House districts, 1 congressional district, and perhaps 1 Senate district.

TX-23 still needs to be 50% Hispanic CVAP does it not?  Did the 2011 map meet that number?


Yes, sir.


Link

Incidentally, SSVR is higher than TX-29. The difference is that the others are Anglos in TX-23 and blacks in TX-29.
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« Reply #768 on: June 26, 2013, 09:44:34 pm »
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TX-23 still needs to be 50% Hispanic CVAP does it not?  Did the 2011 map meet that number?

The 2011 Texas map had 54.5% SSVR.  The first federal judiciary map (struck down by the SCOTUS) had 52.2% SSVR.  The final interim federal judiciary map (and now Texas map) has 55.1% SSVR.  It has an estimated 61.1% CVAP.

As Quico Conseco noted, they removed Hispanic voters, and replaced them with Blacks and Anglos who were more likely to vote for the Hispanic "candidate of choice".
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« Reply #769 on: June 26, 2013, 09:45:59 pm »
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The special session will consider the following issue:

Legislation which ratifies and adopts the interim redistricting plans ordered by the federal district court as the permanent plans for districts used to elect members of the Texas House of Representatives, Texas Senate and United States House of Representatives.
That's pretty clearcut, and the maps are of course ones drawn by Republicans, as emended by the courts, as opposed to actual court-drawn maps. A new even more Republican map will inevitably come under close court scrutiny yet again.

Whether all of the Texas House and Senate Republican caucus see things the same way is another matter entirely.

Gov. Rick Perry could decide to veto voting maps recently completed by the Texas Legislature as a result of today's decision from the Supreme Court, calling a new special session and allowing conservatives to pass new maps that would have not passed under the now defunct Section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

There is some discussion that the maps passed by the legislature in 2011 are now immediately in effect until Rick Perry decides to sign the interim maps into permanent maps.

The difference is a handful of House districts, 1 congressional district, and perhaps 1 Senate district.
Perry has signed the maps passed by the legislature.
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« Reply #770 on: June 27, 2013, 01:13:03 pm »
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http://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/062713zr_c0nd.pdf



The denial of preclearance to Texas redistricting, and to voter ID, has been tossed, and the judgments against Texas have been vacated in light of Shelby v Holder.


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« Reply #771 on: July 01, 2013, 08:19:55 pm »
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http://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/062713zr_c0nd.pdf



The denial of preclearance to Texas redistricting, and to voter ID, has been tossed, and the judgments against Texas have been vacated in light of Shelby v Holder.





Link



San Antonio court starts process for deciding if Texas should preclear maps under section 3 of Voting Rights Act

The request to rule on the 2011 maps seemed to confuse the court at first, with the judges asking on several occasions why they shouldn’t just review the 2013 maps. But after several exchanges - and a recess - they reached at least an informal consensus that the section 3 issues should be addressed.

The State of Texas had sought to have the case dismissed, arguing that the 2011 maps were moot. However, the court denied the state’s motion to dismiss without prejudice.





The Supreme Court might be stepping in again, soon, as, in the prior order, the Supreme Court made a 'suggestion' that the 2011 maps and case were moot.
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« Reply #772 on: July 02, 2013, 01:29:35 pm »
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Wait, what? What are they playing at?
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« Reply #773 on: July 02, 2013, 02:10:01 pm »
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Wait, what? What are they playing at?

The plaintiffs are trying to use this section 3 'bail-in' provision to reinstate section V preclearance. It's been used sporadically over the years in other non Section IV places like Arkansas for limited time frames.

Specifically, they are trying to use claims of discrimination of the old, defunct, repealed 2011 maps (which never had any elections under them) to invalidate the 2013 maps, which are of course identical to the 2012 maps.

The state is simply trying to toss everything regarding the 2011 maps.

The Supreme Court stated the following on June 27, 1 day after Rick Perry signed the new maps.

TEXAS V. UNITED STATES, ET AL.
The judgment is vacated, and the case is remanded to the
United States District Court for the District of Columbia for
 further consideration in light of Shelby County v. Holder, 570
U.S. ___ (2013), and the suggestion of mootness of appellees
Wendy Davis, et al.
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« Reply #774 on: July 04, 2013, 07:32:03 am »
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The state is simply trying to toss everything regarding the 2011 maps.
Which is reasonable given that the maps themselves have been tossed.
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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