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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Texas  (Read 46738 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: December 21, 2010, 01:46:49 pm »
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Just as an FYI - don't be surprised to see Texas GOPers try to use Aaron Pena's recent switch to steal a seat (I doubt it's successful - but others have noted it too, and gaining four seats makes it more likely).
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2010, 05:24:53 pm »
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The district in blue is District 10 in which Lloyd Doggett would face off against Michael McCaul. This district is 46 percent white 12 percent black 35 percent Hispanic 6 percent Asian and 1 percent Other. Obama got 71 percent in this district, so Doggett would most likely mop the floor against McCaul.

The pink district is District 31 which includes the least liberal areas of Travis County and the most liberal areas of Williamson County. A very swing district where Obama got slightly over 50 percent. John Carter would be the incumbent in this district. Not sure who would run against him though. The whites in this district are far more progressive than whites in the rest of the state as this district is 76 percent white.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2010, 05:43:18 pm »
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Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.
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« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2010, 06:22:29 pm »
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Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.

Yeah, he will. Austin is growing too fast and is too strongly Democratic to try to split up any more. It would just make Republican incumbents vulnerable. The Republicans will give Doggett a very safe seat and pack the Democrats in Austin in.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2010, 10:08:53 pm »
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Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.

Yeah, he will. Austin is growing too fast and is too strongly Democratic to try to split up any more. It would just make Republican incumbents vulnerable. The Republicans will give Doggett a very safe seat and pack the Democrats in Austin in.

I suspect the Texas GOP's interest in playing with Doggett will be directly inverse to the number of Hispanic districts they're forced to draw. 

Nevertheless, never, ever underestimate what Texas lawmakers will attempt to get away with in redistricting.  The plan for subdividing Austin into a million pieces is probably out there.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2010, 10:45:32 pm »
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This is the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex.

I will start with the blue district which is District 32. This district is a microcosm of what Dallas County politically speaking looked like 20 years ago. This district is 55 percent white and McCain got 54 percent in this district. Pete Sessions and Kenny Marchant would face each other in a primary in this district

The district in green is District 5. This district is 44 percent white, 23 percent black, 3 percent Asian, 29 percent Hispanic and 1 percent other. Obama got 59 percent in this district. Jeb Hensarling would run in this district, but he would have to run as an Olympia Snowe like Republican to keep this seat.

The district in purple is District 30. This district is 29 percent white, 35 percent black, 3 percent Asian, 34 percent Hispanic and 9 percent other. Obama got 74 percent in this district. Eddie Bernice Johnson would run in this district. She is currently in her mid 70s, so Royce West or Rafael Anchia may run in this district when she retires.

The turqoise district is District 24. This district is 52 percent white and Obama got 53 percent in this district. If Martin Frost ever wants to make a political comeback, this seat is open for him. If not, State Senator Wendy Davis or State Rep Mark Veasey or Lon Burnam could run here.

The district in silver is District 33. This has a lot of wealthy areas like Southlake, Richland Hills, Grapevine, Euless etc. This district is 73 percent white and McCain got 62 percent in this district. I'm not sure who would run in this district, maybe State Rep. Vicki Truitt?

The light purple looking district is District 12. This takes in western Tarrant County plus some counties to the north and west. This district is 75 percent white and McCain got 65 percent in this district. Kay Granger should be more than happy to run in this district.

The yellow district is District 3. This takes in parts of Collin County. This is a very affluent district and 76 percent white. McCain got 61 percent in this district. Sam Johnson of course would represent this district, but he is currently 80 years old. Once he retires, I could see Florence Shapiro run in this district.


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freepcrusher
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2010, 11:06:13 pm »
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The district in yellow is District 18. This district is 31 percent white 22 percent black 4 percent Asian and 43 percent Hispanic. Obama got 65 percent of the vote here. Sheila Jackson Lee would run in this district. Although not as strongly democratic as the original TX-18, Sheila will be fine here.

The orange district is District 9. This district takes south central Houston, plus some black Missouri City neighborhoods in Fort Bend County. This district is 20 percent white, 37 percent black, 11 percent Asian, and 32 percent Hispanic. Obama got 73 percent here. Safe democrat.

The light green district is District 29. It takes in northeastern Harris County. Gene Green and Ted Poe would run up against each other. It would be a toss up race. This district is 43 percent white 20 percent black 3 percent Asian and 34 percent Hispanic. Obama got 51 percent of the vote here.

The purple district is district 34. It takes in the fast growing northwest part of Harris County. This district is 55 percent white and McCain got 58 percent of the vote here. State Senator Dan Patrick may run here.

The light green district in west Houston is District 7. This district is 58 percent white and McCain got 59 percent of the vote here. John Culberson should be fine here.

The puke green district to the southeast, District 35, is what puzzles me. This district is very working class with Pasadena, Baytown, Deer Park, LaPorte all being blue collar communities. But McCain got 55 percent here. What's more interesting is that this district is 47 percent white 5 percent black 3 percent Asian and 44 percent Hispanic. Maybe many hispanics aren't old enough to vote yet or maybe the whites in this district are Archie Bunker types. Some republican from the legislature will probably run here, but the district should be competitive by 2018 or 2020.
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2010, 11:23:29 pm »
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This is the San Antonio area. The light green area is District 20. This takes in the urban precincts in San Antonio and is 21 percent white 10 percent black 2 percent Asian 66 percent Hispanic and 1 percent Other. Barack Obama got 64 percent in this district. Charlie Gonzalez should be fine in this district.

The light blue district is District 36. This district is very moderate in nature. This district is 46 percent white, 44 percent hispanic, 5 percent black, 3 percent Asian, and 1 percent other. McCain got slightly over 50 percent in this district. I made this district so that if Speaker Joe Strauss ever wants to run for congress, there would be a district waiting for him.

The tan colored district is District 21, this takes in the most exurban (and most republican) parts of Bexar County as well as the donut counties. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 63 percent here. Lamar Smith should be happy running in this district.
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2010, 01:06:05 am »
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Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.

Yeah, he will. Austin is growing too fast and is too strongly Democratic to try to split up any more. It would just make Republican incumbents vulnerable. The Republicans will give Doggett a very safe seat and pack the Democrats in Austin in.
I suspect the Texas GOP's interest in playing with Doggett will be directly inverse to the number of Hispanic districts they're forced to draw. 

Nevertheless, never, ever underestimate what Texas lawmakers will attempt to get away with in redistricting.  The plan for subdividing Austin into a million pieces is probably out there.
Maldef or Lulac had proposed an Austin-San Antonio district as their remedy back in 2006.  That could pull some Democrats out of Bexar, making Canseco safer.  So Doggett's district becomes a Hispanic-opportunity district.  Create a district in Cameron-Hidalgo, which means Farenthold's district becomes pure Coastal Bend.  And move the Big Bend into Cuellar's district.


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Jbrase
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2010, 01:10:24 pm »
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As much as I would love to see Harris county districts look that nice, that map would probably see lawsuits with the VRA. Central Harris county should have a majority black district, a two Hispanic majority districts, one on each side. 
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2010, 05:19:37 pm »
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This purple district is District 15. Thanks to population growth, Hidalgo County can have a congressional district entirely within the county. At 88 percent Hispanic, this district could easily be the most hispanic in the country. Barack Obama got 69 percent in this district so Ruben Hinojosa should be safe here.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2010, 05:25:59 pm »
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This is the El Paso Area. District 16 changes very little. It is 76 percent Hispanic, 18 percent White, 2 percent Asian, and 4 percent Other. Obama got 65 percent in this district so Silvestre Reyes is fine here.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2010, 05:34:04 pm »
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This is West Central Texas. Right here is District 19 in light orange. Randy Naw-guh-bower would face mike Conaway in a primary. District 19 is probably the smallest it has ever been since it was originally drawn in the 1930s. It takes in the west texas cities of Lubbock Midland and Odessa. Still this is a 59 percent white district and is a safe seat for any republican to run in as McCain got 72 percent here.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2010, 06:34:52 pm »
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This picture here is of the Edwards Plateau. The district in light brown is District 11. I'm not sure who would run here, maybe Susan King or Jimmie Aycock from the State Assembly. This is a safe republican district at 67 percent white and McCain also getting 67 percent here.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2010, 07:45:51 pm »
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Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.

Yeah, he will. Austin is growing too fast and is too strongly Democratic to try to split up any more. It would just make Republican incumbents vulnerable. The Republicans will give Doggett a very safe seat and pack the Democrats in Austin in.
I suspect the Texas GOP's interest in playing with Doggett will be directly inverse to the number of Hispanic districts they're forced to draw. 

Nevertheless, never, ever underestimate what Texas lawmakers will attempt to get away with in redistricting.  The plan for subdividing Austin into a million pieces is probably out there.
Maldef or Lulac had proposed an Austin-San Antonio district as their remedy back in 2006.  That could pull some Democrats out of Bexar, making Canseco safer.  So Doggett's district becomes a Hispanic-opportunity district.  Create a district in Cameron-Hidalgo, which means Farenthold's district becomes pure Coastal Bend.  And move the Big Bend into Cuellar's district.

Makes sense from the GOP angle, which means I wouldn't be surprised if they do it.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2010, 08:53:32 pm »
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This picture here is the same as last, only zoomed out. The tan/light brown looking district would be District 6, where Joe Barton would face Bill Flores in a primary.  It takes in areas directly south of the Metroplex, including Waco. Barton would most likely win considering he has been around a lot longer. This district is 74 percent white and McCain got 69 percent of the vote here, so any Republican is safe.

The pink/ruby looking district is District 8 which takes in the area along I-45 between Houston and Dallas. Kevin Brady would represent this district and at 78 percent white and 73 percent McCain, he is safe here.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: December 25, 2010, 01:01:20 am »
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Without having to do this myself, are we going to get any realistic looks at what's going to go on here? 

Those who want to post ideas need to start thinking like a partisan Republican that thinks all Dems are Commie fags who rape kids - because that's who will draw the maps.
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Passing Through a Screen Door
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« Reply #17 on: December 25, 2010, 01:24:05 am »
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Chopping up Austin won't get DoJ preclearance and would likely fail in court anyway just like the old border district from DeLay that was shot down.
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« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2010, 12:51:51 pm »
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Remember the last hispanic-opportunity district for Doggett? Wink
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« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2010, 12:52:42 pm »
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Without having to do this myself, are we going to get any realistic looks at what's going to go on here? 

Those who want to post ideas need to start thinking like a partisan Republican that thinks all Dems are Commie fags who rape kids - because that's who will draw the maps.
Fags who rape kids? Yeah. I for one wouldn't be surprised.
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« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2010, 01:48:15 pm »
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Here is the area commonly referred to as "North Texas". The red district is District 4. This district is 69 percent white and takes in Rockwall County, Grayson County, rural parts of Collin County, Northeastern Dallas County and some of Hunt County. McCain got 62 percent in this district, so while not as safe as his old district, he should be fine here. But Ralph Hall is 570 years old and should be retiring soon anyways. I could see longtime state rep Joe Driver run in this district if he can put his corruption days behind him.

This also shows a zoomed out view of Kay Granger's new 12th District which is in light purple.

The Pink District is District 26. It takes in all of fast growing Denton County plus some of southern Cooke County. This district is 77 percent white and McCain got 62 percent here, so Burgess is slightly more safe.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #21 on: December 25, 2010, 02:07:26 pm »
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This is the area known as East Texas. Back in the day this area led the nation in lynchings I believe. So naturally a reactionary type is going to represent these districts.

The lime district in the top right (and also shown in the last post) takes in the areas of northeast Texas that used to be in CD 4, plus some areas of CD 1. I renamed this district CD 25. I can see State Senator Bob Deuell run in this district.

The lavender district in the center right of this district is District 1. This belongs to none other than four term congressman Louie Gohmert. He is the epitome of East Texas with his delusions that "homosexuality leads to bestiality" or that "congress has been taken over by demons" or my personal favorite, that "terror babies are crossing the border". At 71 percent white and McCain getting 70 percent in this district, Gohmert can be assured that like minded twats will continue to re-elect him into the foreseeable future.

The darker green district to the southeast is District 2. This has no incumbent and turncoat Allen Ritter may run in this district. This district is not nearly as republican as district 1 due to Jefferson County, which has always been democratic and even voted for Walter Mondale. But this district is still 69 percent white and McCain got 63 percent here, so this district is Safe Republican.
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« Reply #22 on: December 25, 2010, 02:09:36 pm »
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East Texas had some highly decent Congressmen until 2004. (And no, I don't recall ever hearing that Texas led the nation in lynchings. Unless you mean since 1965. Or maybe East Texas led within Texas? Would make sense.)
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« Reply #23 on: December 25, 2010, 02:23:18 pm »
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This is south central Texas. All the districts are drawn very neatly. The only district that was slightly f---ed up was the district that took in all the areas within a couple miles of Austin-SA. It is in dark brown. Despite being this far south, this district is 65 percent white and McCain got 62 percent in this district. Not sure who would represent this district, which I named CD 23.

The dark blue district takes in most of Corpus Christi and runs through the Gulf Coast all the way up to Lake Jackson. This district is District 14 and Blake Farenthold would face Ron Paul in a primary. This district is 49 percent white, 42 percent hispanic, 7 percent black, 2 percent Asian, and 1 percent other. Despite the low white population, McCain got 60 percent here. A safe republican seat, but could become competitive by the end of the decade.

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freepcrusher
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« Reply #24 on: December 25, 2010, 02:29:26 pm »
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This is the far southern parts of Texas. In fact Brownsville is as far south as Miami. This green district is District 27. This is an open seat that would be open for longtime legislature member Rene Oliveira to run in if he wants. This district is 80 percent hispanic 17 percent white 1 percent black 1 percent Asian 1 percent other. Obama got 61 percent here.
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