US House Redistricting: Texas
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #25 on: December 25, 2010, 02:49:36 PM »

The only district that was slightly f---ed up was the district that took in all the areas within a couple miles of Austin-SA. It is in dark brown.
Slightly? Lolwut?
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #26 on: December 25, 2010, 04:00:54 PM »



I think this map is a more realistic version of Houston.

Districts 18 and 29 are black and Hispanic, the rest are all fairly strong McCain districts.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #27 on: December 25, 2010, 04:33:07 PM »

That would eliminate a Black (well, Black-held multiracial) district in Houston. Probably not going to fly with the DoJ, I suppose.

(Still, it's more realistic compared to crusher's maps... since Democrats aren't going to draw the map.)
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Padfoot
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« Reply #28 on: December 25, 2010, 05:16:53 PM »



I think this map is a more realistic version of Houston.

Districts 18 and 29 are black and Hispanic, the rest are all fairly strong McCain districts.

I believe that it is now possible to draw two majority Hispanic districts in addition to one black majority district in the Houston area.  Currently the 9th is a minority coalition district so I assume that it will be altered to become Hispanic majority and the remaining area can be cut up to prevent any new Democrats from getting elected.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #29 on: December 25, 2010, 05:33:32 PM »

Remember the last hispanic-opportunity district for Doggett? Wink
Approved by the DOJ and a federal court that had been picked by the Democrats.
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Sbane
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« Reply #30 on: December 25, 2010, 05:39:42 PM »
« Edited: December 25, 2010, 05:41:40 PM by sbane »

Are two Hispanic districts going to be required in Houston? I drew a 60% Hispanic district, but it was still 58% Obama. The rest of the Hispanics I put in Republican districts. I turned the 18th into a lean Republican district that voted 51-49 Mccain. It contains Hispanic areas and north Harris county suburbs, and is about 32% Hispanic. My 8th consists of Montgomery county and then a sliver down into Harris to pick up some Hispanic areas. That district is 29% Hispanic, but still voted for Mccain with 69% of the vote. I suppose that could be considered diluting the vote, and might not get past the courts.

I put all Houston Blacks in one district, which voted about 90-9 Obama. Republicans will definitely try to draw that district, and it's only 60% black so I don't know if that will be considered packing. You definitely can't draw two Black majority districts there. But how good of an argument is to say that Blacks need two opportunity districts? I suspect Hispanics will get another district but Blacks won't. 

I split Austin in four, but I fear I may have drawn too few Hispanic districts overall. I am guessing Austin Hispanics get put into a district with South Texas, though the courts frowned upon that last time, right?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #31 on: December 25, 2010, 06:11:18 PM »

The issue with Hispanics is that unless they're a majority with a sizable black population or, at minimum, over 60% in number (better yet 65%), you never get the result you want in Texas.  They either don't show up - or if they're in the suburbs, they tend to vote more Republican than you want them to.

My gut tells me that the Houston area is going to remain the same and the three minority CDs will simply expand outward to take in more minorities (since the population was either stable or declined).  You can pack the blacks, but then the second Hispanic district will elect a white Dem or maybe a white GOP if you draw it deviously enough.  Besides, the black reps are not going to be happy giving away one of their CDs.

Dallas is rather simple in comparison - the new Hispanic district can be drawn out of 24 and 32 and everyone will be happy.

Rather, the game is going to be in San Antonio, Austin and South Texas.
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Sbane
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« Reply #32 on: December 25, 2010, 06:44:52 PM »

Yup, Dallas was very easy to draw. Just draw the new Hispanic district and everything falls in place.
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muon2
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« Reply #33 on: December 25, 2010, 06:45:44 PM »

Are two Hispanic districts going to be required in Houston? I drew a 60% Hispanic district, but it was still 58% Obama. The rest of the Hispanics I put in Republican districts. I turned the 18th into a lean Republican district that voted 51-49 Mccain. It contains Hispanic areas and north Harris county suburbs, and is about 32% Hispanic. My 8th consists of Montgomery county and then a sliver down into Harris to pick up some Hispanic areas. That district is 29% Hispanic, but still voted for Mccain with 69% of the vote. I suppose that could be considered diluting the vote, and might not get past the courts.

I put all Houston Blacks in one district, which voted about 90-9 Obama. Republicans will definitely try to draw that district, and it's only 60% black so I don't know if that will be considered packing. You definitely can't draw two Black majority districts there. But how good of an argument is to say that Blacks need two opportunity districts? I suspect Hispanics will get another district but Blacks won't. 

I split Austin in four, but I fear I may have drawn too few Hispanic districts overall. I am guessing Austin Hispanics get put into a district with South Texas, though the courts frowned upon that last time, right?

Last year I posted a Houston area map assuming 36 districts. It includes a black majority district (light blue 9) and two Hispanic majority districts (yellow 18 and olive 29). CD 29 is a solid 68% Hispanic, and easily defensible as a VRA district. CD 18 is at 57% Hispanic with 21% black and will probably be over 50% Hispanic VAP to satisfy section 2. I'll leave it to the local experts to determine how well it would elect a candidate of choice.

As I drew it there are still only three Harris county districts for Dems. That should give the GOP a shot a the new CD 35 (purple). It's a net increase of minority districts and of GOP districts.

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freepcrusher
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« Reply #34 on: December 25, 2010, 08:09:09 PM »



This district here is of the surrounding area of Houston. The light blue district is District 22. It takes in all of Fort Bend west of HWY 59 and snakes up to Sealy towards College Station. This district is 63 percent white and McCain also got 63 percent here. Pete Olson should be fine here.

The orange looking district south of Harris County is District 17. This district takes in all of Galveston, most of Brazoria, and parts of Fort Bend. This is an open seat and I'm not sure who would run here. But this is a 60 percent white district and McCain got 58 percent here, so a republican would do fine here.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #35 on: December 25, 2010, 08:22:50 PM »



Here is a zoomed out view of the entire state.

The only districts I haven't mentioned yet are District 13 and 28.

District 13 is in silver. This takes in the northwest area of the state and the entire panhandle. This district is the type of Texas that people think of in the movies: cotton fields, oil rigs, small town football, guns, cowboys, chili cook-offs etc. This district is 69 percent white. This district could easily be the most republican leaning in the country with McCain getting 76 percent here, so Thornberry is fine here. But interestingly enough this is a fairly new phenomenon as Jimmy Carter easily won at least half of the counties in this district in 1976.

District 28 is in purple this takes in most of the Rio Grande Valley and could easily be the largest geographical district in the continental U.S. I thought it was big enough that it wouldn't have to go very far north, but unfortunately I had to take in some leftover cracker counties/precincts in District 19, that are overwhelmingly GOP. This district is 73 percent hispanic, 24 percent white, 1 percent black, 1 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 52 percent here. This is Henry Cuellar's district, but he may have to go up against Canseco, depending where Canseco lives. This district should become more democratic by the end of the decade as many hispanics in this district reach voting age.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #36 on: December 26, 2010, 05:47:54 AM »

My gut tells me that the Houston area is going to remain the same
Same here.
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Jim thought a map keeping Jackson-Lee the only Democrat was possible, IIRC.

But how good of an argument is to say that Blacks need two opportunity districts?
The thing is that Al Green will be safe in a 45% Hispanic, 30% Black type district - but it would be Hispanic opportunity when open.
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Technically not, in practice yes - the district struck down was another one, but the remedy chosen made it very very clear what the court actually thought of that monstrosity. (Of course, the district was represented by Lloyd Doggett during the two years that it existed.)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #37 on: December 26, 2010, 02:12:44 PM »

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Technically not, in practice yes - the district struck down was another one, but the remedy chosen made it very very clear what the court actually thought of that monstrosity. (Of course, the district was represented by Lloyd Doggett during the two years that it existed.)

Which is why the Texas GOP will probably lump the Austin Hispanics in with the San Antonio Hispanics and split the rest of the white Dem areas in Austin among GOP districts.  Charlie Gonzalez's CD has to expand anyway, and I don't know how much more GOP suburbs he would want.  Plus, as we noted this year, a second San Antonio Hispanic district becomes highly questionable as Dem unless you push it up to Austin (or push it down to the border - which the courts didn't like).  There just simply aren't enough Hispanic Dem precincts.

Also, one of the new districts *has* to be placed within the Austin and San Antonio suburbs, which makes this solution have even more validity.  You move the border portions of TX-23 into TX-28 and the white Republican portions of TX-25 are combined with Corpus Christi to create a new TX-25 for Farenthold.  TX-15 and TX-27 become true border districts, except that you design the more northern of the two to be marginal enough for the party switcher.

Or at least that's how I would do it upon first glance.

As for Houston, I can definitely see the option of packing the blacks and creating another Hispanic opportunity seat that might, in fact, be pretty marginal.  That may well be done.

In Dallas, creating the Hispanic opportunity seat is probably the best idea.  Otherwise, you start knocking your McCain margins down to below 55% in more than one of those Dallas seats.

I'm being nice and creating a 25-11 map (presently 23-9) with a chance for the party switcher to make it 26-10.  Don't underestimate the GOP trying for 26-10 or even 27-9, though.  It can be done, but it's just more challenging and risks court challenges, of course.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #38 on: December 27, 2010, 02:37:55 AM »

As for Houston, I can definitely see the option of packing the blacks and creating another Hispanic opportunity seat that might, in fact, be pretty marginal.  That may well be done.

In Dallas, creating the Hispanic opportunity seat is probably the best idea.  Otherwise, you start knocking your McCain margins down to below 55% in more than one of those Dallas seats.

I'm being nice and creating a 25-11 map (presently 23-9) with a chance for the party switcher to make it 26-10.  Don't underestimate the GOP trying for 26-10 or even 27-9, though.  It can be done, but it's just more challenging and risks court challenges, of course.
Based on the 2009 ACS, the states population is divided like this based on share of 36 districts.

CD 10, 17, and 23 were split between two regions.

CD 10: 50% Houston (Austin County east), 50% Central
CD 17: 64% Central (McLennan south), 36% DFW
CD 23: 62% Central (Bexar), 38% South

Houston 9.63 (Currently 8.50, including 50% of CD 10)
DFW 11.84 (Currently 10.36, including 36% of CD 17 plus CD 1)
Central 6.77 (Currently 5.76, including 64% of CD 17, 50% of CD 10, and 62% of CD 23)
West 2.95 (Currently 3)
South 4.82 (Currently 4.38, including 38% of CD 23)

We don't have to do much in West Texas other than unkinking the boundaries and picking up 35,000 people somewhere.

In South Texas, the population isn't really in the right place to promote the non-Bexar part of CD 23 to its own district, so instead that area is added to CD 28.  We then create a new district from the northern parts of CD 15, CD 27, and CD 28.  We designate this district as CD 27, which is a Coastal Bend district and should probably also inlcude Victoria and surrounding areas, so we shift about 0.18 of a district from the Houston area.  The southern part of CD 27 is designated CD 33, and includes portions of Hidalgo County, CD 15 is shifted westward along the Rio Grande (CD 28 can give up its portion of Hidalgo, because it has gained Eagle Pass, Del Rio, and the Trans Pecos from CD 23)

So that makes it 23:10, with a competitive Coastal Bend CD 27.

In the Houston area, the excess of 0.45 (after the shift of Victoria to the Southern area) is about equivalent to its 1/2 of CD 10.  But instead of continuing this as an inner metro-district, we get population from Montgomery and Fort Bend, and perhaps the rural western parts of CD 14.  This 1/2 district will be added to CD 17 - see below.  CD 10 gets converted into a new district 34 with its core in NW Harris County.

Elsewhere, Jefferson gets shifted to CD 8, in exchange for some areas in Montgomery.  CD 2 also picks up some excess from CD 9, 18, and 29, which collectively have only 88K extra to give up.   CD 29 is short -13K, so we add the most Hispanic areas of CD 9 and 18 that are adjacent to CD 29.  The area that gets shifted to CD 2 is in the IAH area, which will make it look less like CD 18 is wrapping around CD 29 in north Houston.  Elsewhere we shift population towards the west to help create CD 34 and provide new population for CD 17.

That makes it 24:10

In the DFW area, CD 35 is created in the northern suburbs.  There is sufficient excess population in CD 3, 4, 12, and 26 for this. 

The northern part of CD 17 becomes CD 36 and adds in parts of CD 6, 24, 30, 5, and 1 (actually, much of it comes from CD 6, with areas in the other districts moving into CD 6.   We also need to add a little bit to the DFW area, so we pick off the northern tip of CD 31, and perhaps additional parts of CD 17 such as Madison, Robertson, and Limestone.  CD 36 might take over the southern tail of CD 6.   CD 6 could pick up Grand Prairie, etc.  CD 32 is short a bit, which it picks up from CD 30.

That makes is 36:10 with CD 32 becoming more competitive.

In Central Texas, you have to bulk up the remaining parts of CD 10 and CD 23.   CD 23 gets its population mainly from CD 21 and the small excess from CD 20.  CD 21 becomes very much a San Antonio-Austin district.  San Antonio really doesn't have enough population for 3 districts.   CD 25 withdraws behind the Armadillo Curtain.   CD 31 takes McLennan county from CD 17, and gives up parts of Williamson County to CD 10 (so CD 31 would become Georgetown, Killeen, Temple, Waco), while CD 10 is more Austin-Round Rock.

The southern part of CD 17 around Bryan-College Station gets the parts of CD 10 and 25 to the east of Austin, in exchange for giving up McLennan, and then adds in portions of the extreme northern and western parts of the Houston area.  It in effect becomes the inter-regional district, bur rather than going from Harris to Travis, it is centered on Bryan-College Station and edges into the suburban areas.

So you have CD 26:10 with CD 23, 27, and 32 being competitive seats.

CD 4 and CD 8 become a bit more pure East Texas, CD 4 is +130K because of growth in Collins and Rockwall which it shed.  I suppose it keeps Rockwall for now.  CD 2 8 picks up Jefferson which has lost enough population that it can be outvoted by areas to the north, and it will still include parts of Montgomery.

CD 31 now becomes a Waco-Temple-Killeen district stretching into the northern part of Austin.  You have a district based in Bryan-College Station, and Corpus Christi-Waco.  You have 4 border districts which will no longer be represented from San Antonio or Corpus Christi.  In the west, you have a better separation into: Amarillo-Wichita Falls, Lubbock-Abilene, and Midland-Odessa-San Angelo-Hill Country districts.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #39 on: December 27, 2010, 11:03:29 AM »

Here's my latest attempt at the Hispanic districts in the south:





In reading the Supreme Court decision, it seems like their beef was that a) the voting age population of Hispanics wasn't enough in TX-23, and b) there was too much of a geographic stretch to go from Austin to Laredo in TX-25.  What I conclude is that 65% Hispanic is enough to satisfy condition a (as that's roughly what the court-drawn TX-23 had), and that if you confine yourself to south Texas, you'll satisfy condition b.  I couldn't find any section in which the court added up votes and said that these Hispanics are too Republican, or anything like that. 

If that's right, then my lines will pass muster.  Canseco's TX-23 (in brown) is 65% Hispanic, 51-48 McCain (previously 51-48 Obama).  I dropped the rural counties in the far west - they can be added to the Midland/Odessa district - so this is less sprawling than it was before (albeit only slightly).  Farenthold's TX-27 (in green) is 65% Hispanic, 50-49 McCain (53-46 Obama previously).

After that it's simple.   Dem districts only in El Paso, San Antonio, Austin, 3 in Houston, and then 1 or 2 in Dallas - I've been able to draw just one and have all the other districts safe for the GOP but if the DoJ insists then draw two.  You have to be a bit careful with the districts in the Austin suburbs (you probably want to split Williamson in case it continues to trend blue) but otherwise almost anything will work once you pack the urban districts. 
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #40 on: December 27, 2010, 03:54:55 PM »

based on my map here is the delegation of the 113th congress

DISTRICT 1 Louie Gohmert R-Tyler
DISTRICT 2 Allan Ritter R-Nederland
DISTRICT 3 Sam Johnson R-Plano
DISTRICT 4 Ralph Hall R-Rockwall
DISTRICT 5 Royce West D-Dallas
DISTRICT 6 Joe Barton R-Ennis
DISTRICT 7 John Culberson R-Houston
DISTRICT 8 Kevin Brady R-Woodlands
DISTRICT 9 Al Green D-Houston
DISTRICT 10 Lloyd Doggett D-Austin
DISTRICT 11 Jim Keffer R-Eastland
DISTRICT 12 Kay Granger R-Fort Worth
DISTRICT 13 Mac Thornberry R-Clarendon
DISTRICT 14 Ron Paul R-Lake Jackson
DISTRICT 15 Ruben Hinojosa D-Mercedes
DISTRICT 16 Silvestre Reyes D-El Paso
DISTRICT 17 Larry Taylor R-Friendswood
DISTRICT 18 Sheila Jackson Lee D-Houston
DISTRICT 19 Mike Conaway R-Midland
DISTRICT 20 Charlie Gonzales D-Houston
DISTRICT 21 Lamar Smith R-San Antonio
DISTRICT 22 Pete Olson R-Sugarland
DISTRICT 23 Harvey Hilderbran R-Kerrville
DISTRICT 24 Wendy Davis D-Fort Worth
DISTRICT 25 Bob Deuell R-Greenville
DISTRICT 26 Michael Burgess R-Lewisville
DISTRICT 27 Eddie Lucio Jr R-Brownsville
DISTRICT 28 Henry Cuellar D-Laredo
DISTRICT 29 Gene Green D-Houston
DISTRICT 30 Eddie Bernice Johnson D-Dallas
DISTRICT 31 John Carter R-Round Rock
DISTRICT 32 Pete Sessions R-Dallas
DISTRICT 33 Chris Harris R-Arlington
DISTRICT 34 Mike Jackson R-Pasadena
DISTRICT 35 Dan Patrick R-Houston
DISTRICT 36 Jeff Wentworth D-San Antonio

24 Republicans 12 Democrats.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #41 on: December 27, 2010, 07:52:37 PM »

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.
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Torie
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« Reply #42 on: December 27, 2010, 08:16:29 PM »

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #43 on: December 27, 2010, 09:06:30 PM »

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?

Yes, but I have to clean it up a bit first.
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Torie
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« Reply #44 on: December 27, 2010, 09:21:16 PM »

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?

Yes, but I have to clean it up a bit first.

I just post sh*t drafts myself, and clean them up in "public," per the input of others, and as on ongoing work in progress (why or why do I make so many dumb mistakes?). I would  like to think it makes me seem more human to the Forum, as this fossil from another age, another era, does his own thing in his own odd way.  Smiley

Plus, I think it kind of interesting, to give others some sense of the roadblocks, and conundrums, that I face, as I try to effect my, well as my younger Dem brother told my a day or two ago, my execrable agenda for a Party as to which he is now rather quite confused, as to just why I have any allegiance, whatsoever.

But I know why. Tongue

And so it goes.
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Torie
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« Reply #45 on: December 29, 2010, 11:20:57 AM »

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?

Yes, but I have to clean it up a bit first.

Sam, just as a note of caution, the population data is only accurate at the county level. Within counties, Dave Bradlee just assumes everything grew or shrank at the same rate since 2000. That is not such a big deal in relatively stagnant states like Wisconsin, but for a demographically dynamic state like Texas, that will tend to make your maps that take in the high population counties a piece of crap. Muon2 pointed this out to me.

And then there is Michigan, where the Detroit metro area has been shrinking. When the real numbers roll in, that might well help the Pubbies a bit from what one can do per Bradlee's software. I suspect the spots were there has been relative population loss are disproportionately Dem within Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #46 on: December 29, 2010, 11:38:55 AM »

Round 2 of Delaymanderring doesn't seem all that difficult.

1. 1 new Dem district in Dallas
2. 1 new GOP district south of DFW.
3. 1 new GOP district in the  Houston suburbs (this comes out of Lloyd Doggett's 25th)
4. 1 new swingy (although lean GOP) district in South Texas

The trick is to I think run both CD-15 and CD-28 along the border only, both 70% Obama districts. CD-27 moves a bit north and becomes ~54% McCain. CD-23 runs all the way down to Brooks County, ~54% McCain, both are at 60% hispanic.

CD-35 comes in at the Southern Half of Bexar County, is majority white, and 54% McCain.

Outside of here you have 23 60% McCain districts and the 8 heavy Dem packed districts in Houston/Dallas/Austin/San Antonio/El Paso.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #47 on: December 29, 2010, 11:48:51 AM »

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?

Yes, but I have to clean it up a bit first.

Sam, just as a note of caution, the population data is only accurate at the county level. Within counties, Dave Bradlee just assumes everything grew or shrank at the same rate since 2000. That is not such a big deal in relatively stagnant states like Wisconsin, but for a demographically dynamic state like Texas, that will tend to make your maps that take in the high population counties a piece of crap. Muon2 pointed this out to me.

And then there is Michigan, where the Detroit metro area has been shrinking. When the real numbers roll in, that might well help the Pubbies a bit from what one can do per Bradlee's software. I suspect the spots were there has been relative population loss are disproportionately Dem within Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.

I realize the software is not perfect, especially not in the big cities.  For example, errors abound in the internal precincts of Houston, as I see obvious black precincts in Houston where black and Hispanic and/or white and black numbers are screwed up.

I am sure that the growth rates of the areas within the major counties will undoubtedly benefit the GOP in the map, as most of the Dallas/San Antonio/Houston current minority areas have been losing population.

Consider this an attempt that will be clarified when we get good data.

Just FYI, krazen has really stumbled closer to the plan that will probably be used, as Dems will probably complain about the new TX-27 in my map.  To stop the complaining, I would point out that I am also pretty sure that I can put Cuellar and Hinojosa in the same district and create three McCain Hispanic 60% districts. (i.e. instead of 25-11 or 26-10, how about 27-9  Tongue)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #48 on: December 29, 2010, 11:50:25 AM »

Texas Gerrymander Attempt #1

Goals: 1) 25 seats of McCain 58% (57.50%) or better; 2) At least one competitive seat (D+5 PVI to R+5 PVI); 3) 9-10 safe Democratic seats; 4) 8 Hispanic majority-minority seats (60% Hispanic or higher, by my count, should get you to 50% VAP).

Major Concern: TX-25 is 46% white, 46% Hispanic and might be viewed as Hispanic vote dilution.

Argument: I can f-ck with you much worse, as in, I'm pretty sure I can put Cuellar and Hinojosa in the same district and create three highly marginal border CDs (definitely two with McCain 53%-55%) that meet all specifications.

Note: Full views of all maps can be found in my folder.  The full view of Texas is cut off a bit at the top.  Did not include CD numbering until later pictures.

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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #49 on: December 29, 2010, 11:58:33 AM »



TX-1 (Gohmert's Lair)
Incumbent Home: Tyler (Smith County)
Voting: McCain 68% (69%), Obama 31% (31%)
Race: 70% White, 20% Black, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Comment: Mostly unchanged from previous iteration.  Lufkin is taken out and replaced with a bit of Texarkana and some rural east Texas.



TX-2 (Lampson's Nightmare)
Incumbent Home: Humble (Harris County)
Voting: McCain 62% (60%), Obama 37% (40%)
Race: White 69%, Black 14%, Hispanic 12%, Asian 4%
Comment: Similar to the present TX-2, except Kingwood is put in TX-22 and Port Arthur is put into TX-8 (thus separating Port Arthur and Beaumont).  I'm pretty sure Poe's home is in the district - Humble is separate from Kingwood - but change can be made easily if this is a problem.  In exchange, Poe gets northern parts of Liberty, adds Harbin County, and gets a nice (more) rural slice of Montgomery which will probably gain GOP constituents over time.



TX-3 (How I Hate Dallas County, Texas)
Incumbent Home: Plano (Collin County)
Voting: McCain 62% (57%), Obama 37% (42%)
Race: 78% White, 9% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 5% Black
Comment: Sam Johnson's CD extricates itself from the older Dallas suburbs to go further north in Collin County, into Grayson County (Sherman and Denison) to the TX-OK border, thereby gaining Republican voters.
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