US House Redistricting: Texas

[jimrtex]

http://www.kwtx.com/centraltexasvotes/localheadlines/_Panel_Says_Temporary_Texas_Voting_District_Map_Unlikely_133004788.html

A three-judge federal panel in San Antonio says it's unlikely that it will approve district maps to be used temporarily for next year's congressional primaries while legal challenges to Texas redistricting proceed.

The state suggested using the maps approved by the legislature, and the maps proposed by the plaintiffs are crap.  So the judges are stuck with siding with one of the parties, or drawing its own map.  And the court denied intervention by a person who could likely draw a reasonable map.

Filing for the primary begins on the 12th of November.

[Torie]

http://www.kwtx.com/centraltexasvotes/localheadlines/_Panel_Says_Temporary_Texas_Voting_District_Map_Unlikely_133004788.html

A three-judge federal panel in San Antonio says it's unlikely that it will approve district maps to be used temporarily for next year's congressional primaries while legal challenges to Texas redistricting proceed.



Interesting.

The court bounced the map. The Pubbies think they will have another bite out of the apple. I assume they counted on that when they over-reached. If they didn't, or don't get another bite, they are in a word, colossal dumbs.

[minionofmidas]

That does mean they were dumbs in opting to go directly to court, rather than to Holder, for preclearance. Nothing else as far as I can see.

[krazen1211]

I figured it would be worthwhile dusting these off.

Hmm. Looking at these, I see.

1. New GOP district in Frisco. New problems for Pete Sessions. Burgess and Marchant look ok.
2. New tossup/lean Dem district in Williamson/Travis.
3. New GOP district in South San Antonio going east.
4. New GOP district in Galveston along with some discomfort for John Carter?

[jimrtex]

http://www.kwtx.com/centraltexasvotes/localheadlines/_Panel_Says_Temporary_Texas_Voting_District_Map_Unlikely_133004788.html

A three-judge federal panel in San Antonio says it's unlikely that it will approve district maps to be used temporarily for next year's congressional primaries while legal challenges to Texas redistricting proceed.

Interesting.

The court bounced the map. The Pubbies think they will have another bite out of the apple. I assume they counted on that when they over-reached. If they didn't, or don't get another bite, they are in a word, colossal dumbs.

The order by the DC Court said that Texas had used an "improper analysis" in determining whether a district was a minority opportunity district.

The USDOJ latest brief says that Texas erred in using a bare majority to determine whether a district was a minority opportunity district (being a lawyer, you probably recognize a 58% HCVAP as being a bare majority), and that Texas should have used a "functional analysis" which means looking at election results, and mandates political gerrymandering.

The USDOJ expert drew a plan for TX-23 that only required modifying 6 neighboring districts that the USDOJ liked better.  After it was pointed out that she had drawn Canseco out of the district, she drew another map.

[timothyinMD]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

I'm sick of hearing the Latinos and blacks complain that they need "minority opportunity" districts

[Padfoot]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

I'm sick of hearing the Latinos and blacks complain that they need "minority opportunity" districts

So you're saying that the one black guy in Wyoming has an equal opportunity to get elected as one of the hundreds of thousands of black people living in Houston or Dallas?

This country has a long history of racial discrimination and despite electing a black president there are still pockets where it is going strong.  Protecting minority voting rights unfortunately still mandates that minorities be concentrated enough within a district to elect a member of their choosing.

[lowtech redneck]

This country has a long history of racial discrimination and despite electing a black president there are still pockets where it is going strong.  Protecting minority voting rights unfortunately still mandates that minorities be concentrated enough within a district to elect a member of their choosing.

Whether that's true or not, the minorities in question comprised more than the accepted 'majority' standard in the district under dispute; if that 58% concentration is now viewed as insufficient, then whoever has the authority to determine these things should have been required to make that known beforehand.  To create a new standard after the fact is purely arbitrary government, and an exercise in (and blatant excuse for) Judicial activism.

I could have accepted a decision based on the lack of a second minority district in Dallas, but invalidating the map on the other basis seems like an abuse of judicial authority to me.

[jimrtex]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

I'm sick of hearing the Latinos and blacks complain that they need "minority opportunity" districts

So you're saying that the one black guy in Wyoming has an equal opportunity to get elected as one of the hundreds of thousands of black people living in Houston or Dallas?

This country has a long history of racial discrimination and despite electing a black president there are still pockets where it is going strong.  Protecting minority voting rights unfortunately still mandates that minorities be concentrated enough within a district to elect a member of their choosing.

Barack Obama couldn't get elected in a VRA district.

[minionofmidas]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

You only need to live in the state, not the district.

[jimrtex]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

You only need to live in the state, not the district.

The "opportunity" is not for the candidate, but for the class of voters.

[minionofmidas]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

You only need to live in the state, not the district.

The "opportunity" is not for the candidate, but for the class of voters.

And it is not to vote in an election, but to determine the outcome. (Then again, that opportunity exists in every close election, no? )

[TJ in Oregon]

I agree with lowtech. It would be nice is the law was more mechanical about determining what cases where a minority-majority district would be required (or what constitutes a minority-majority district in the case of Hispanics where 50% + 1 VAP doesn't necessarily cut it). I'm not a huge fan of litigation and I never have been. As bad as some of our elected politicians are, they at least are elected and held accountable to someone. A court...man I don't trust courts.

Most of the VRA is ironically an aid to segregation: it works to ensure blacks will be represented by blacks and whites will be represented by whites. We end up selecting government officials first and foremost by the color of their skin. It's utterly bizarre and backward to think about, yet such a deep part of the political sausage-making when it comes to redistricting that the process would be considerably different without it. Imagine an Ohio map drawn without having add on the strange tail from Cleveland to Akron just so OH-11 is 51% black instead of 48% black. Or the collection of black state senators who said they might vote for the crazy GOP gerrymander if we tacked on part of Dayton to the Columbus seat to make it majority black. I mean, really? Yet, as a Republican it can be rather amusing to watch.

[krazen1211]

http://www.kwtx.com/centraltexasvotes/localheadlines/_Panel_Says_Temporary_Texas_Voting_District_Map_Unlikely_133004788.html

A three-judge federal panel in San Antonio says it's unlikely that it will approve district maps to be used temporarily for next year's congressional primaries while legal challenges to Texas redistricting proceed.

Interesting.

The court bounced the map. The Pubbies think they will have another bite out of the apple. I assume they counted on that when they over-reached. If they didn't, or don't get another bite, they are in a word, colossal dumbs.

The order by the DC Court said that Texas had used an "improper analysis" in determining whether a district was a minority opportunity district.

The USDOJ latest brief says that Texas erred in using a bare majority to determine whether a district was a minority opportunity district (being a lawyer, you probably recognize a 58% HCVAP as being a bare majority), and that Texas should have used a "functional analysis" which means looking at election results, and mandates political gerrymandering.

The USDOJ expert drew a plan for TX-23 that only required modifying 6 neighboring districts that the USDOJ liked better.  After it was pointed out that she had drawn Canseco out of the district, she drew another map.

In addition, they want the Hispanics in Nueces County placed back into TX-34 rather than in the new TX-27. Not sure what that accomplishes other than cleaving Nueces County into 2.

[krazen1211]

Here is my attempt at a map based on the Jimtrex parameters.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1348/a-least-change-texas-map

[timothyinMD]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

I'm sick of hearing the Latinos and blacks complain that they need "minority opportunity" districts

So you're saying that the one black guy in Wyoming has an equal opportunity to get elected as one of the hundreds of thousands of black people living in Houston or Dallas?

This country has a long history of racial discrimination and despite electing a black president there are still pockets where it is going strong.  Protecting minority voting rights unfortunately still mandates that minorities be concentrated enough within a district to elect a member of their choosing.

Yup.  Exactly.  Your statement is ridiculous.   Minority voters can always elect a member of their choice.  They walk into the voting booth and choose a candidate for congress.

[Miles]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

I'm sick of hearing the Latinos and blacks complain that they need "minority opportunity" districts

So you're saying that the one black guy in Wyoming has an equal opportunity to get elected as one of the hundreds of thousands of black people living in Houston or Dallas?

This country has a long history of racial discrimination and despite electing a black president there are still pockets where it is going strong.  Protecting minority voting rights unfortunately still mandates that minorities be concentrated enough within a district to elect a member of their choosing.

Yup.  Exactly.  Your statement is ridiculous.   Minority voters can always elect a member of their choice.  They walk into the voting booth and choose a candidate for congress.

Opprotunity districts are drawn so that minorities have a chance to actually elect a candidate of their choice, as opposed to just voting for one (as your last post implies).

[jimrtex]

Opprotunity districts are drawn so that minorities have a chance to actually elect a candidate of their choice, as opposed to just voting for one (as your last post implies).

But you then end up with voters of the wrong race for their district.  So a Hispanic in a majority white district is not disenfranchised even thought he decided to go fishing on election day, because somebody somewhere else was able to elect the candidate of choice of the fisherman's race.  You've transformed voting into a collective right.

[jimrtex]

Here is my attempt at a map based on the Jimtrex parameters.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1348/a-least-change-texas-map

I did the DFW area and got tired.  I think it really works out to create the Frisco district.  In some cases, I didn't follow my instructions since I saw I could move population directly into the new district, so you kind of pull TX-4 eastward so it more or less goes north from Rockwall, and then take the northern part of TX-3 and leave it as a Plano district.  Take the Denton part of TX-24, and the northern part of TX-26 (staying out of Denton city).

TX-30 and TX-5 didn't move.  TX-32, TX-24, and TX-26 moved west, TX-26 is a lot more compact since it lose Cooke as well.  TX-6 becomes definitely an Arlington district, with Ellis and some of Navarro.  Arlington-Johnson makes more sense, but that would count as a population shift.  So TX-17 moves some to the east.

TX-31 and TX-10(west) was a problem because if I did what I suggested, you would pair Carter and McCaul.  So instead TX-31 becomes Williamson-Bell, and the district becomes Travis part of Williamson, and then swings up through McLennan and points north.   This of it sort of like the current TX-31, but with Travis instead of Williamson.  And you did move Orange directly from TX-8 to the new district, so it is a direct shift.

[krazen1211]

DOJ's proposed remedy basically modifies the same 3 districts again; TX-23, TX-20, TX-21.

Both TX-23 and TX-20 become ~57% Obama districts and TX-20 doesn't even sit in Bexar County.

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/?PlanHeader=PLANc219

[timothyinMD]

To my knowledge, all 435 House districts have a non-Hispanic white person over the age of 25.  Thus, every district in this county is a minority opportunity district.

I'm sick of hearing the Latinos and blacks complain that they need "minority opportunity" districts

So you're saying that the one black guy in Wyoming has an equal opportunity to get elected as one of the hundreds of thousands of black people living in Houston or Dallas?

This country has a long history of racial discrimination and despite electing a black president there are still pockets where it is going strong.  Protecting minority voting rights unfortunately still mandates that minorities be concentrated enough within a district to elect a member of their choosing.

Yup.  Exactly.  Your statement is ridiculous.   Minority voters can always elect a member of their choice.  They walk into the voting booth and choose a candidate for congress.

Opprotunity districts are drawn so that minorities have a chance to actually elect a candidate of their choice, as opposed to just voting for one (as your last post implies).

Under the presumption that minorities are sheep and they all vote the same way.  That's offensive.

[Bacon King]

There's no such presumption involved, actually. For a VRA district to be required, a minority group (that is large enough and inhabits territory compact enough to meet the Gingles threshold) must be shown to vote as a block for specific candidates that would not be elected otherwise.

[jimrtex]

DOJ's proposed remedy basically modifies the same 3 districts again; TX-23, TX-20, TX-21.

Both TX-23 and TX-20 become ~57% Obama districts and TX-20 doesn't even sit in Bexar County.

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/?PlanHeader=PLANc219

The USDOJ claimed that the Hispanic turnout would be reduced substantially in TX-23.  What they failed to mention was that current TX-23 has 150,000 persons too many, and that turnout of all races would be reduced.

[dpmapper]

I don't understand why the TX GOP wouldn't make Gene Green's seat a swing seat by doing something like this in the Houston area:



TX-29 (in grey-green) INCREASES its Hispanic VAP from 66.1 to 66.9%, it better respects municipal boundaries (no longer splitting the major cities of Pasadena and Baytown in half); and Obama still won the district (50.4%) so it's not like Democrats can argue that their candidate will be shut out. 

Yellow is SJL's district which is now up to 49.6% black, 33.9% Hispanic; Al Green gets cyan (where whites are the 4th largest race! 29.9% black, 40.6% Hispanic, 14.1% Asian, 13.9% white - is there anywhere else outside of NY and LA where one can do that in such a compact fashion?); and as a further bonus, a new majority-minority (49.9% white) entirely-in-Harris district in purple (which happens to be 63.1% McCain). 

With all of these minority-friendly modifications I can't see how there could possibly be any legitimate VRA issue.  But I'm sure you'll let me know. 

The grey district to the west is TX-07 for Culberson (unchanged in PVI: 58% McCain); Pete Olson's TX-22 in bright green gains a point of Republican PVI (now 59.4% McCain).  Both of these keep their previous shape, for the most part.  TX-02 in Green still has Humble for Ted Poe and still goes out east to Beaumont; and then there's a Galveston district to the south in bronze.  (Outer districts aren't complete, but they're obviously safely Republican.)

[jimrtex]

I don't understand why the TX GOP wouldn't make Gene Green's seat a swing seat by doing something like this in the Houston area:



TX-29 (in grey-green) INCREASES its Hispanic VAP from 66.1 to 66.9%, it better respects municipal boundaries (no longer splitting the major cities of Pasadena and Baytown in half); and Obama still won the district (50.4%) so it's not like Democrats can argue that their candidate will be shut out. 

Yellow is SJL's district which is now up to 49.6% black, 33.9% Hispanic; Al Green gets cyan (where whites are the 4th largest race! 29.9% black, 40.6% Hispanic, 14.1% Asian, 13.9% white - is there anywhere else outside of NY and LA where one can do that in such a compact fashion?); and as a further bonus, a new majority-minority (49.9% white) entirely-in-Harris district in purple (which happens to be 63.1% McCain). 

With all of these minority-friendly modifications I can't see how there could possibly be any legitimate VRA issue.  But I'm sure you'll let me know. 

The grey district to the west is TX-07 for Culberson (unchanged in PVI: 58% McCain); Pete Olson's TX-22 in bright green gains a point of Republican PVI (now 59.4% McCain).  Both of these keep their previous shape, for the most part.  TX-02 in Green still has Humble for Ted Poe and still goes out east to Beaumont; and then there's a Galveston district to the south in bronze.  (Outer districts aren't complete, but they're obviously safely Republican.)

Harris County is in court now with regard to a commissioners precinct that is somewhat similar to TX-29 (except it has about 1 million people) and must extend further north or somewhere.