US House Redistricting: Texas

[Brittain33]

The Court considered CVAP only as a proxy for determining the likelihood of a certain outcome, not for an individual's right to representation, which is based on being a resident of the state and not a citizen.

[Brittain33]

The Court considered CVAP only as a proxy for determining the likelihood of a certain outcome, not for an individual's right to representation, which is based on being a resident of the state and not a citizen.

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Interesting. When I have time, I'll have to read that decision for quotes supporting their decision to determine districting by resident population, and not the number of VAP citizens, because if they believed the latter was what mattered, they could easily have ruled for using that as the total. There are always quotes and arguments put forward in decisions that are then outweighed by other arguments seen to have more relevance and a stronger constitutional basis--hence "as nearly as practicable." Do you think that the courts would rule that a citizen's right to an equal distribution of CVAP outweighs the right of residents of the U.S. to equal representation regardless of ability or proclivity to vote? Is there evidence that the courts share that view?

[Brittain33]

I do think it's interesting that Wesberry was decided at a time when the non-citizen adult population in the U.S. was likely at a low for the century... just before immigration reform. However, it was also before the mass registration of African-American citizens in the South, so there were surely districts in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas with a relatively low number of voters. Did Wesberry comment on any of those districts for the purpose of de facto citizens' equal rights to representation vs. adults (not that African-Americans were represented by their representatives)? Did the courts make a nod to the fact that citizenship did not correlate with voting rights, which is a difference in analogizing that population to non-citizens and children today? I would think that if the court had concerns about districts with roughly equal populations but very different sized electorates, they would have seized the opportunity to say something. Whites in predominantly white areas surely were at a disadvantage to whites in heavily minority areas even when the districts were of equal population, as Wesberry decided was the best solution.

[Brittain33]

Hmm? Blacks in those places were always citizens, even when they couldn't vote.

You're right of course, I meant to say "voters" in that particular sentence. The rest of my paragraph makes sense with that correction in mind (which I'll make now), I used "de facto citizens" to refer to those who could vote and distinguish them from those who couldn't. (which also included some poor whites, but that's another discussion.)

[Brittain33]

What is the impact if Republicans in the legislature decide they'd rather create a seat for one of themselves instead of shoring up a flake like Farenthold in a marginal part of the state?

[Brittain33]

One could try to make the Austin-to-San Antonio Hispanic seat the same as the San Antonio Dem seat... that's getting really ambitious but I can make that happen in some configurations.  Might require too many districts pitching in to chop the rest of Austin, though. 

Bexar has close to 1,000,000 Hispanic residents according to the 2009 Census estimates; Travis has about 300,000. You need more than one district for everyone.

[Brittain33]

Ok, another question. Shouldn't Republicans be worried about banking on multiple 52-54% McCain, 60+% Hispanic districts in places where nearly all of the population growth in the next 10 years is going to make the districts more Democratic?

[Brittain33]

I think TX-7 could be safe Republican even with a lower McCain number, much like Torie's district in California. Obama won many high-income voters over McCain-Palin in 2008 that are simply not going to vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress and may not vote for Obama again in 2012.

[Brittain33]

It's already used in several places. NC-13 for example.

I'm struggling to think of an example other than that one in use currently.

[Brittain33]

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/04/28/a_proposed_redistricting_map_w.html

The long and short of it:

1. Doggett's district turned into a Travis-Bexar district, presumably Hispanic VRA.
2. Hispanic 33rd in Metroplex.
3. Corpus-based 35th and points north for Farenthold or someone else, his old district reverting to VRA.
4. 2nd district moves all the way into Harris County, and what used to be the 2nd in East Texas is now the 36th.
5. 34th district looks bizarre, linking Parker County to the Hill Country across the remains of Edwards' pre-Delaymander district. Presumably picking up leftover territory after the 21st and 31st districts shrink and expand into Travis.

[Brittain33]

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Base Plan C115.

That map has some truly ludicrous and amateurish elements. Basically, three of the four "new" districts plus what the 34th does to the 15th. Surely they can draw a strong Republican map that doesn't look this bad. 

[Brittain33]

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

[Brittain33]

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

The two representatives who represented Webb County (Cuellar and Bonilla) submitted a brief requesting that the split be maintained.

How was their brief received by the court?

[Brittain33]

This is what results when you try to do a least-change map for incumbents and add four new districts and when you despise one particular congressman.

[Brittain33]

The 15th might go Republican at a glance. The 28th experty snakes into Bexar County to grab what I think are the Bexar County blacks, which keeps the Hispanic VAP down.

I cheated and looked at the reports. The 15th is 80% VAP Hispanic (similar to 16th) and the 28th has a trivially small Black population, FWIW. Doggett could still win the primary in the 35th, I believe.

[Brittain33]

This is what results when you try to do a least-change map for incumbents and add four new districts and when you despise one particular congressman.

You referring to Ron Paul? Or Doggett?

They didn't have to do anything like this, though. I don't know why they just didn't split Montgomery County between Brady and Poe, and kept the 36th looking sane.

Doggett. I didn't consider the impact on Paul. Maybe Paul can primary Farenthold if he doesn't like the new 14th? Farenthold doesn't seem tough to defeat.

The 36th is completely absurd, the only explanation that makes sense to me was that they wanted Brady to have all familiar territory.

[Brittain33]

For the record: I do not care if Timothy or Bob condemn this map.

[Brittain33]

Wasn't there some kind of Barton vs. Smith fight over redistricting? From the looks of Barton's district, he lost. His district looks like Sessions's. Winnable, but with a large number of Democrats.

[Brittain33]

Solomons is backing away from the map a bit. We all know we're going to see an aggressive Republican map but perhaps the ridiculousness of this TX-36 or the lack of a Hispanic district in DFW are too big to ignore.

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http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/texas-congressional-map-will-change-leader-says/

[Brittain33]

Il-4 was two sensible blocks connected by a ridiculous corridor. The Houston districts were fractals.

[Brittain33]

Plan released.

At first glance: it creates a Tarrant-only Dem district.

Keeps Travis split three ways but gives Doggett a compact, winnable district not including Bexar.

35th district is Hispanic and based in Bexar County.

Looks like it restores 27th as a Hispanic district and moves Farenthold into a 34th district equivalent to what the R's had done with 27 before, but only a small slice of Nueces.

I can't analyze Bexar, but Canseco got some territory that the R gerrymander had assigned to TX-20 and lost some in north Bexar, so that can't be good for him. He picked up some rural territory that is heavily Hispanic, but whose electorate in many cases is probably still quite R.

12 D districts plus whatever TX-23 is.

[Brittain33]

At least 10 districts wander into Harris County. I don't understand what they did with TX-2.

[Brittain33]

Great, so if future elections are like 2010 and no one brings up his bankruptcies, Canseco is home free.

D+3 or
D+4.

[Brittain33]

Ciro was never a quality candidate.

[Brittain33]

Lewis, what did you have in mind with your query?