US House Redistricting: Missouri

[Vasall des Midas]

One bizarre factoid is that bumping up CD1's Black share as high as it can go helps Carnahan, as you have to forfeit White, strongly Democratic areas on the South Side of the city in favour of solid-lean-Democrat, white-majority-but-Black-presence areas in the western inner suburbs.

[Jbrase]

By moving MO-05 up north a tad bit I think it could be picked off. Then tried a combo of packing the dem vote into St. Louis with some spilling out into St. Louis county, the rest of which is divided up.

[Verily]

You've probably made MO-05 more Democratic, not less. Certainly it's at least D+7 or so on that map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, you'd have to split up Kansas City proper; the non-KC part of Jackson County basically votes in line with the statewide totals (according to their crappy elections website, it went 50-49 McCain and 54-41 Blunt; yes, apparently they report their results separately from KC's results).

Either way, it won't happen; the best case scenario for the Dems is a 5-2 map with one swing district.

I took another stab at a 6-2 map:




I think (I did this a week or two ago, never bothered to post it) I calculated MO-03 and MO-08 as being over 60% McCain without the parts of St. Louis and Jefferson, so putting those in there shouldn't affect the districts too much. Either way, all of the districts except for MO-01 and MO-05 should be at least mid-50s McCain districts.

[freepcrusher]

being an evil genius, i wanted to take Cass County where the person who unseated Skelton lives, and glue it next to a bunch of heavily black precincts in KC.

[Invisible Obama]

First look at a potential map

http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltext?nxd_id=431676

[Dgov]

Any reason you can think of for why the 5th stretches out that far?  I Assume it's intended to prevent Ike Skelton from running again (as he lives in Lafayette county), but it draws the 6th dangerously far into Jackson county.

Either way, this is almost certainly going to be vetoed by Nixon.  It eliminates Carnahan's district, and I'm pretty sure all the other Republicans are safe in their districts.

[Invisible Obama]

Any reason you can think of for why the 5th stretches out that far?  I Assume it's intended to prevent Ike Skelton from running again (as he lives in Lafayette county), but it draws the 6th dangerously far into Jackson county.

Either way, this is almost certainly going to be vetoed by Nixon.  It eliminates Carnahan's district, and I'm pretty sure all the other Republicans are safe in their districts.

I would imagine they had Skelton in mind when they put this together, even though it's doubtful he'd run again. Republicans can override the veto in enough black legislators vote for the bill and it's not clear if they will get those votes.

[freepcrusher]

imagine what a Skelton-Cleaver primary would be like.

[Vasall des Midas]

Anybody have a map that shows what exactly they did around St Louis? I wonder how they're protecting Todd Akin with this thing.

[muon2]

The Senate should be considering its version of a map tomorrow.

[Sheliak5]

Here's a better version of the map.  Carnahan's district seems to get chopped up between the 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

http://www.house.mo.gov/largemap.aspx

[Senator X]

Here's a better version of the map.  Carnahan's district seems to get chopped up between the 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

http://www.house.mo.gov/largemap.aspx

Surely Nixon will veto this.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, if the Republicans can get two Democrats in the House to vote for it, they can override his veto...

[Gravis Marketing]

Why are they doing this to Kansas City?

[freepcrusher]

i know the new map is almost set in stone, but does anyone see my districts? I remember someone telling me that if Ike Skelton had survived 2010, they would have drawn this map to dismember the district.

Statewide View



Kansas City


St Louis



Under this map; Emerson, Long, Graves, and Cleaver get to keep 100% of their old districts. They merely expand in size. To gain adequate population, they add in territory from the current 4th district. The remaining parts of the 4th district are added to the northern and western areas of the current 9th district and renamed the 4th. The southern and eastern areas of the old 9th take in the northern and western areas of the 2nd and the remaining parts of the 2nd take in the St. Louis County portion of the 1st plus a small amount of northern St. Louis City. The rest of old CD 1 is attached to the current CD 3, so Canrahan actually keeps 100% of the district and probably gets safer by adding more of the city of St. Louis.

1st District
Incumbent: Todd Akin
Race % 60.4 White, 32.2 Black
This is a district that takes in some republican suburbs from old CD 2 but it is outvoted by black precincts from old CD 1. Obama probably got in the high 50s or low 60s. Akin barely lives in this district, so he may very well run in the new 2nd district. If he does that, a democrat from the legislature may run here.

2nd District
OPEN
Race % 90.7% White
See Above

3rd District
Race 73.5% White, 19.5% Black
Incumbent: Bill Clay Jr vs. Russ Carnahan
This district takes in almost all of St Louis County and the remaining parts of the old CD 3. Clay and Carnahan would face off in a primary here. Carnahan would love this district, because a lot of Clay’s black constituency is gone, giving him the opportunity to win the primary and become even more entrenched. Obama probably got 65-70 percent here.

4th District
Race % 87.5 White
Incumbent: Blaine Luetkemeyer
This is probably somewhere between an R+8 and R+12 district. Safe Republican

5th District.
Race % 66.6 White, 21.5 Black
Incumbent: Emmanuel Cleaver vs. Vicky Hartzler
This would be a fun matchup to watch. Can Hartzler establish herself as a giant killer by defeating another entrenched incumbent? In this race, she takes on Emmanuel Cleaver (chairman of the black caucus). In her favor, this district is probably only a D+5 as opposed to the D+10 it used to be. However, I still think Cleaver would probably win this district as many of the urban voters from Kansas City would be turned off by the antiquated views of Hartzler on certain issues.

6th District
Race % 88.3 White
Incumbent: Sam Graves
As said before, this district stays the same only it takes in territory from old CD 4.

7th District
Race % 89.8 White
Incumbent: Billy Long
See 6th District

8th District
Race % 91.3 White
Incumbent: Jo Ann Emerson
See 6th District

[krazen1211]

Why are they doing this to Kansas City?

I don't think Kansas City itself is split, is it?

On another note, its amazing how quickly MO has done redistricting. Well oiled machine I guess.

[krazen1211]

Well, if the Republicans can get two Democrats in the House to vote for it, they can override his veto...

House plan to eliminate Carnahan just passed by a 10-1 committee vote. I don't think any of them give a damn about him at all.

http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2011/04/05/house-committee-passes-redistricting-plan/

[Gravis Marketing]

Why are they doing this to Kansas City?

I don't think Kansas City itself is split, is it?

On another note, its amazing how quickly MO has done redistricting. Well oiled machine I guess.

They were one of the first ones up in 2001, too, I recall. I can't believe it's been ten years already.

[dpmapper]

Well, if the Republicans can get two Democrats in the House to vote for it, they can override his veto...

House plan to eliminate Carnahan just passed by a 10-1 committee vote. I don't think any of them give a damn about him at all.

http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2011/04/05/house-committee-passes-redistricting-plan/

All three black Democrats on the committee are for this plan.  If Nixon vetoes it will get overridden. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looking closer at the map, it looks like they left nearly all of the existing part of Jackson County in and added the little sliver from MO-04. I don't think this will change the district's partisan lean all that much. My guess is it's still about 60-61% Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's apparently a split between the House and the Senate over the maps. These are the two proposals:



Yes, they're arguing over what would seem to be incredibly minor differences.

[krazen1211]

Silly, but I expect them to get it done in time. I don't know if Nixon will even bother vetoing.


Politico has a nice article about Carnahan dropping f bombs on Cleaver/Clay after they threw him under the bus.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I drew a nonpartisan/court map of Missouri:



It would still be 5-2-1, and even then, the one swing district (green) would have been at best around 50/50 in 2008.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Seriously? I doubt that portion of St. Louis County is significantly more Republican than Jefferson county. Looks like an about 54% Obama district.