US House Redistricting: Missouri

[minionofmidas]

Put it in the 2nd district then. That 3rd is disgusting.

That would probably make Akin very vulnerable (though no goner), ie, be a compromise rather than an R drawn "compromise".
Which means we might just get lucky and see it put in the first where it belongs.

[minionofmidas]

MO-01 as drawn in 2000 is just below 50% black, so I don't think it's protected by VRA.

Not this again.

[minionofmidas]

It is protected by the VRA because it can be safely expected to be represented by the candidate of choice of its Black residents. That means it needs to remain that way. 50% has nothing to do with anything.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I drew it just right now too. It's incredibly hard to get CD-1 over 50%, but it's possible.



50.18%, and yeah, that southwestern spike ends in two Black-majority precincts. The next nearest one is in Jefferson City.

I see that Johnny gave Luetkemeyer a basically completely new district. That may well be what it takes to dislodge Carnahan; I had that intention but didn't have that much imagination, and now suppose that I've really eliminated Akin, not Carnahan, so i won't bother posting the whole thing.

[minionofmidas]

One bizarre factoid is that bumping up CD1's Black share as high as it can go helps Carnahan, as you have to forfeit White, strongly Democratic areas on the South Side of the city in favour of solid-lean-Democrat, white-majority-but-Black-presence areas in the western inner suburbs.

[minionofmidas]

Anybody have a map that shows what exactly they did around St Louis? I wonder how they're protecting Todd Akin with this thing.

[minionofmidas]

LOL, are they seriously worried about a Skelton comeback? The guy is like 5000 years old.

Well, i think they were planning this map before they beat him in 2010

That's probably it.

[minionofmidas]

If they draw their own district, it's not a veto override. It's a new map. I don't think there's time for that.

[minionofmidas]

There were nine members absent on the final vote, and the plan got nine fewer votes than there are Republicans. Even though three Democrats voted for it. So there must be some Republicans opposed to the thing?

[minionofmidas]

She probably cared, somewhat, but preferred to hide behind Luetkemeyer because he cared more.

[minionofmidas]

The scuttlebutt is (at least from one guy and his super-leet insider sources) that Jo Ann Emerson didn't want her district to take in too much territory in the St. Louis media market.

That's surprising seeing as how she lives in St. Louis with her husband who's a Democratic union member. ..and some of the district is a part of the St. Louis media market (St. Francois, Washington and Iron counties), and Ste. Genevieve County is as well.

As for Jefferson County, why don't they just carve it into two districts: have the cities/suburban Jefferson County moved into one of the St. Louis districts (pretty much everything from Crystal City north to Arnold) and then everything south of Crystal City (rural/podunk parts of the county) into MO-08? Seems like that would be less controversial.

Because that would mean a seat for Russ Carnahan to run in?

[minionofmidas]

And how many Black representatives from the city voted against the override?

Seriously. Are there recall petitions in Missouri?

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, it's exactly the minimum number required though (if I understood that right), and it's obvious there were massive pressures either way. In Saint Louis at least, it doesn't sound as if their constituents are going to be particularly happy.
It's over as far as the map is concerned, evidently.

[minionofmidas]

According to wikipedia, the new map had been drawn before the 1990 elections.

Somehow though, given that this is 1990 we're talking about and not 80 or 70 or whatever, that doesn't sound right. Anyhow, she didn't lose by much in '92. But did lose by a lot when she ran again in '96.