US House Redistricting: Missouri

[RBH]

African-Americans will want to make sure Clay keeps his district (MO-01) majority black

It's not majority black right now.

But at the same time, it's at least 3-1 Dem in bad years. So I'm pretty freaking sure that it doesn't have to be majority black to be won by Clay.

Of course, there are some Dems who got treats from the Republican leadership and might vote to move the plan, but are they willing to override a veto too?

[RBH]

It's not majority black right now.

But at the same time, it's at least 3-1 Dem in bad years. So I'm pretty freaking sure that it doesn't have to be majority black to be won by Clay.

Of course, there are some Dems who got treats from the Republican leadership and might vote to move the plan, but are they willing to override a veto too?

49.8%, close enough; that's about as high as I can get the new and expanded MO-01 without getting too crazy with the boundaries.  I doubt that the black pols are eager to see that number dip too much, not because they're afraid the seat will go to a Republican, but because they want to guarantee that an African-American wins the Dem primary, particularly when the seat becomes open.  This is the same racial politics that happen pretty much everywhere; is there any particular reason that Missouri is different?  

Re: the veto threat, I think the trick for the Republicans is to make a map that will get black votes (keep Clay and Cleaver safe, with black pluralities if not majorities), but not be so blatantly partisan as to back Nixon into a corner wherein he would be forced to veto it.  In that situation he might decide that it's not worth fighting an override battle just for an extra percentage point or two.  

6-2 or 5-3 is not a fight over a percentage point or two.

6-2 is not proportional for Missouri, even if it was red.