Realigning elections

[Napoleon]

And why?

(I'm only counting elections that took place after the Republican party was created)

[Psychic Octopus]

I'm not a fan of the realignment theory, especially considering its use in the modern era, but I voted for 1896, 1932, and 1980.

[Napoleon]

I'm not a fan of the realignment theory, especially considering its use in the modern era, but I voted for 1896, 1932, and 1980.

I voted for 1896, 1932, 1968, and 1992. I don't really see what Reagan realigned, he was just very popular personally with some groups more than others.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2004 sort of broke the pattern of realigning elections. Every 36 years had been a realignment
1788 (well, actually 1789), 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1968

[Napoleon]

2004 sort of broke the pattern of realigning elections. Every 36 years had been a realignment
1788 (well, actually 1789), 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1968

9/11 changed everything.

[Psychic Octopus]

I'm not a fan of the realignment theory, especially considering its use in the modern era, but I voted for 1896, 1932, and 1980.

I voted for 1896, 1932, 1968, and 1992. I don't really see what Reagan realigned, he was just very popular personally with some groups more than others.

Whoops, meant to put in 1968, my mistake. I voted for 1968 in the poll . Reagan solidified the realignment that was started by Nixon.


1992 a realignment eletion? Meh, we've talked about this before. All it did was create the common electoral base map that we see today, really. If you want to take a look at some prior discussion, here's a link.     

[Napoleon]

I'm not a fan of the realignment theory, especially considering its use in the modern era, but I voted for 1896, 1932, and 1980.

I voted for 1896, 1932, 1968, and 1992. I don't really see what Reagan realigned, he was just very popular personally with some groups more than others.

Whoops, meant to put in 1968, my mistake. I voted for 1968 in the poll . Reagan solidified the realignment that was started by Nixon.


1992 a realignment eletion? Meh, we've talked about this before. All it did was create the common electoral base map that we see today, really. If you want to take a look at some prior discussion, here's a link.     

Actually, I just wrote a twelve page thesis arguing that 1992 was a realignment.
If we consider V.O. Key, Jr.'s "Theory on Critical Elections" we see that 1992 strongly reflects what realignment is: a shift of base voters groups among the parties. Suburban areas have not shifted back to Republicans, most have actually grown increasingly Democratic each year since 1992, and I'm talking about places like Westchester and Nassau, places like New Jersey and Connecticut, the outer Bay area, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks counties in PA, Cook county suburbs, etc.

I think that phnkrockerx was spot on. The Blue Firewall was built in 1992 on the failures of George H.W. Bush to appeal to his conservative base. His decision to raise taxes meant he had to run to the right to hold his base and the end of the Cold War eliminated a major pillar of Republican unity, especially more liberal Northerners.

[Napoleon]

And I didn't vote for 1968, I don't know why I said that. I voted for 1860 as my fourth choice. 1968 didn't seem to change the electorate much.

1928 and 1968 are elections where we see coalitions unraveling though. Catholics swung hard to Smith in 1928 and have stayed. Same for Southern whites in 1968. But not enough to constitute a realignment, IMHO.

[Einzige Mk. II]

The only ones I'd consider especially valid are 1860 and 1832. 1896 really only solidifed pre-existing trends in both parties (the Republicans had always been the Party of industrial interests, and the Democrats the Party of agrarian ones). 1980 is massively overrated in terms of a realignment - Reagan's coattails were tiny. The only other one that might get a pass from me is 1968, because it set into motion some of the trends that are just now playing themselves out.

[Niemeyerite]

2008: democrats definitely lose the south and become stronger in the west ande in VA and VC

[J. J.]

I'd say these elections are in the "realignment period."

1860 (1858-64)*

1896 (1894-1900)

1932 (1930-36)*

1980 (1978-84)

*Very strong realignments.

[5280]

We'll probably see another realigning election next decade, probably in the late 2020's

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't believe in realignment theory.

[J. J.]

I don't believe in realignment theory.

I do, but the theory is usually more than one general election changes everything.

[DS0816]

I checked off 1860 [R], 1896 [R], 1932 [D], 1968 [R], and 2008 [D].

(I'm sticking with the 30- to 40-year periods in which one party wins the ovewhelming majority of presidential elections. Emphasis on "presidential.")

[Mr.Phips]

1894, 1932, 1994