Anyone else getting the sense that Daniels will actually run?

[Reaganfan]

Mitch Daniels seems to be warming up to a run for President...probably because he realizes that when he has higher numbers in primary polls than other better-known GOP contenders (Thune, Santorum), it's a sign his chances are real.

The big question is can the short, likable Daniels defeat Obama?

[tmthforu94]

Daniels has the private sector experience that moderate likes, but also has the social conservatism that Tea Party folks like. He's one of the few candidates whom I think could really bring the two sides together. I'd imagine he'd chose conservative, but no extreme, Senator who's associated somewhat with the Tea Party movement, such as John Thune, just so the Tea Party base will be excited, while the moderates aren't deeply turned off.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

No, I don't think he can beat Obama..........

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Daniels is not a social conservative.  He has no chance at the GOP nomination.

[feeblepizza]

Daniels is not a social conservative.  He has no chance at the GOP nomination.

Yes he is, he's just not as vocal about it as some other potential contenders (Palin, Huck, Pence, etc.) are.

[feeblepizza]

I do indeed think that Mitch will run for President. He has enough connections within the party and amongst super-rich party doners, so he could easily raise a good amount of funding. He also has more support than more well known contenders such as Thune and Santorum (as Reaganfan already pointed out). Plus, he's not too conservative to scare away moderates, but not too centrist to scare away conservatives.

So yes, he will run and he will win the nomination and eventually the general election. I expect someone along the lines of Thune or Pawlenty to be his running-mate.

[Bull Moose Base]

Sort of.  But he said the other day his decision would depend on other candidates' focus and positions on the debt.  Since there's not going to be much policy difference between the candidates, save some nuance, I sort of don't see how he justifies a run without appearing phony given his mantra that he'd rather someone else run.  You could argue Daniels has offered some different ideas from the rest of the field but if he focused on them it seems more likely to hurt than help him in a primary: truce on social issues, openness to tax increases.  Not sure how the party gets middle class Republicans impassioned about keeping down the tax rates of the rich but that's the secret recipe, isn't it?  Anyway, I doubt he'd emphasize his willingness to raise taxes on the stump as opposed to his call for the permanence of the Bush tax cuts (which begs question how serious can he be about trimming the deficit?).  His appeal is probably mostly to moderates whose numbers are shrinking in the GOP.  If Obama proposes some ideas on deficit-reduction which he very probably will and the economy recovers (?), moderate turnout will probably be even weaker in the primary.

fwiw, I've read interviews that ask his wife about the idea of a run and it always feels like she genuinely hates the idea but who the heck knows?   I'd probably call him about 50-50 on running for now going on the little there is to guess.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Daniels is not a social conservative.  He has no chance at the GOP nomination.

Yes he is, he's just not as vocal about it as some other potential contenders (Palin, Huck, Pence, etc.) are.

1)  Daniels has <1% chance to win GOP nomination if Pence runs.  If Pence announces a run in Jan 2011, there is no oxygen (money or otherwise) left for Daniels unless Daniels runs way to the left socially, which would kill any chances Daniels has.
2)  Social conservatives do NOT considered Daniels a social conservative.
3)  He has neither the name recognition nor the resume, a la John McCain / Bob Dole, to back into the GOP nomination.

[Yelnoc]

Daniels is not a social conservative.  He has no chance at the GOP nomination.

He is socially conservative but not in your face about it.  Social issues are not his passion.

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Why would Pence's announcement negatively affect Daniels?  He's just a congressman with a low fundraising capability and nothing to make him stand out in a crowd.

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Are you the new voice of social conservatives?

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Each primary season is a different one; this year the big four candidates with name recognition (Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich) either won't run or are doomed to fail. 

And what makes you think that Pence has high name recognition?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

I like Daniels, but he's going to run into trouble with the Tea Party over his proposal for a VAT.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

2)  Social conservatives do NOT considered Daniels a social conservative.

Are you the new voice of social conservatives?

no, not the new voice

[Keystone Phil]

Jm, just because you say that social conservatives don't consider Daniels to be socially conservative doesn't mean that he's not socially conservative. Can you provide examples? I'm sincerely interested.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Jm, just because you say that social conservatives don't consider Daniels to be socially conservative doesn't mean that he's not socially conservative. Can you provide examples? I'm sincerely interested.

google "daniels social conservative".  how can you call yourself a social conservative if you surrender?

[Keystone Phil]

Jm, just because you say that social conservatives don't consider Daniels to be socially conservative doesn't mean that he's not socially conservative. Can you provide examples? I'm sincerely interested.

google "daniels social conservative".  how can you call yourself a social conservative if you surrender?

I understand what you're saying but his comments were directed at both sides of the social issues debate.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Jm, just because you say that social conservatives don't consider Daniels to be socially conservative doesn't mean that he's not socially conservative. Can you provide examples? I'm sincerely interested.

google "daniels social conservative".  how can you call yourself a social conservative if you surrender?

I understand what you're saying but his comments were directed at both sides of the social issues debate.

as if the other side is going to stop?

[Bull Moose Base]

Daniels reiterates his take on a "truce" today in the Hill.  Saying he has tremendous respect for people who want to see gay marriage legalized makes Daniels admirably mature but will hurt him in a primary where maturity may not be considered a virtue.

The point is that many or most social conservatives don't consider it acceptable to direct such a sentiment at both sides rather than just at social liberals (who they consider the only ones who deserve it).

[Roemerista]

Daniels reiterates his take on a "truce" today in the Hill.  Saying he has tremendous respect for people who want to see gay marriage legalized makes Daniels admirably mature but will hurt him in a primary where maturity may not be considered a virtue.

The point is that many or most social conservatives don't consider it acceptable to direct such a sentiment at both sides rather than just at social liberals (who they consider the only ones who deserve it).

This is why I am especiallly excited about a possible Daniels run, the GOP does not exactly have the "Mature" image, and certainly needs an over hall. A GOP candidate has enough work ahead of them without having to start three steps behind.

[Psychic Octopus]

Yes, I think he will run, and I think he has a decent shot at the nomination.

He has something I like, and that is authenticity. From what I've seen thus far, he doesn't flip flop, and sticks to his guns on the issues. He's a conservative, a reformer, and has a record of success in his state. What's not to like? He is a social conservative (pro-death penalty, pro-life), he's just more focused on economic issues. Of the Dark Horses, I think he is the one most likely to break out of the back and become a major contender.

It'll be funny when Pence announces for Governor. I've even read before that when Pence is asked about the presidency, he defers to and mentions Governor Daniels, a friend of his.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

It'll be funny when Pence announces for Governor. I've even read before that when Pence is asked about the presidency, he defers to and mentions Governor Daniels, a friend of his.

links?  or, how about a single link?

[Psychic Octopus]

It'll be funny when Pence announces for Governor. I've even read before that when Pence is asked about the presidency, he defers to and mentions Governor Daniels, a friend of his.

links?  or, how about a single link?

I saw him say it when he was on a satellite panel, talking from the hill. Looking for the links, but here is some of it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence#Presidential_campaigns

He'll run for Governor, and he'll almost certainly win. He's not going to run a longshot bid for the presidency, only to lose and be out of office, and in the wilderness.

[Keystone Phil]

Jm, just because you say that social conservatives don't consider Daniels to be socially conservative doesn't mean that he's not socially conservative. Can you provide examples? I'm sincerely interested.

google "daniels social conservative".  how can you call yourself a social conservative if you surrender?

I understand what you're saying but his comments were directed at both sides of the social issues debate.

as if the other side is going to stop?

And does he really think our side will stop? He's just saying what he thinks ought to happen.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

It'll be funny when Pence announces for Governor. I've even read before that when Pence is asked about the presidency, he defers to and mentions Governor Daniels, a friend of his.

links?  or, how about a single link?

I saw him say it when he was on a satellite panel, talking from the hill. Looking for the links, but here is some of it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence#Presidential_campaigns

from Wiki:  "He has no plans yet to run for President and often lends off-hand vocal support for fellow Hoosier and friend Governor Mitch Daniels."

that is NOT the same thing as "when Pence is asked about the presidency, he defers to and mentions Governor Daniels, a friend of his".

---

He'll run for Governor, and he'll almost certainly win. He's not going to run a longshot bid for the presidency, only to lose and be out of office, and in the wilderness.

if he wants to be President, he is very unlikely in the future to get better odds than he has now.  And I would think being the governor of Indiana is a step down in power from the position he would have held in the upcoming Congress.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And does he really think our side will stop? He's just saying what he thinks ought to happen.

he is saying that:
1) economic well-being is of greater priority than values
2) economic problems can be addressed without addressing values

as opposed to Pence's statement of: "You would not be able to print enough money in a thousand years to pay for the government you would need if the traditional family continues to collapse."

[Psychic Octopus]

It'll be funny when Pence announces for Governor. I've even read before that when Pence is asked about the presidency, he defers to and mentions Governor Daniels, a friend of his.

links?  or, how about a single link?

I saw him say it when he was on a satellite panel, talking from the hill. Looking for the links, but here is some of it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence#Presidential_campaigns

from Wiki:  "He has no plans yet to run for President and often lends off-hand vocal support for fellow Hoosier and friend Governor Mitch Daniels."

that is NOT the same thing as "when Pence is asked about the presidency, he defers to and mentions Governor Daniels, a friend of his".

---

He'll run for Governor, and he'll almost certainly win. He's not going to run a longshot bid for the presidency, only to lose and be out of office, and in the wilderness.

if he wants to be President, he is very unlikely in the future to get better odds than he has now.  And I would think being the governor of Indiana is a step down in power from the position he would have held in the upcoming Congress.

then he never had a shot in the first place...

Same difference, I just rephrased what I thought was said.

How are his odds good? Most of the country has never heard of him and the last time a Representative was elected president was over a hundred years ago. If he was a Senator or Governor, it'd be a different story. He's still relatively young, and if he runs for Governor, he can be a very viable candidate in the next presidential election. At best, he'd be a rerun of Dick Gephardt, only on the Repblican side of the aisle.

If his chances now are the best they'll be (which I disagree with),

[California8429]

I think he's running, his answers have turned 180 since some months ago and now he's even showing a time frame. If it's a successful year governing, then I'd say yes 100%. But I see it likely now still, that he announces right at the end of the session.