The GOP path to the Presidency

[zorkpolitics]

So what is your best guess of how a GOP candidate could win in 2012?  Incumbents usually win in spite of controversies (Bush (Iraq), Clinton (healthcare)), and they win with a bigger vote margin than their first election.  So I expect Obama will win in 2012.

So is there a path for a GOP candidate or will 2011 and 2012 just be a lot of political fury that ends with a Obama win?

Here is my path for the GOP:
1) Unfortunately for the country, the economy would have to continue to be a jobless recovery with Unemployment remaining above 8.5% (or maybe 8%)
2) Obama will have to fail to blame the country's ills on the GOP Congress
3) Sarah Palin does not get the nomination, much as I like her life story, her negatives are way too high to overcome and she would obviously be pilloried by the media
4) The GOP candidate will have to clearly elucidate a path to economic growth and attract swing voters

Finally the GOP candidate will have to win all the McCain states, plus the 4 states Obama won with the smallest margins IN, NC, FL, OH, and at least 2 (and maybe 3) of the following: VA, IA, NH, CO

[ShamDam]

The GOP will have to both prevent Obama from achieving any major legislative accomplishments while also not seeming like the cause of all the problems that would come with that. That's a pretty fine line to walk upon, considering that if Obama does get a lot done, as long as there's no double-dip recession he'll be relatively popular.

Whereas if he gets little-to-nothing done due to GOP blockage, then they'll paint them as the Party of No, which, while failing to prevent a blowout in 2010, will hold a lot more water in 2012 and should be a decent enough strategy to keep Obama's approvals where they are now, high enough to beat the 4 current frontrunners.

So, not only will the GOP congress (well, GOP House) have to be a success in pushing conservative ideals and preventing Obama from taking credit for it, they'll also have to push a candidate that isn't one of the 4 brought up most frequently now, which I don't think has a precedent. (meaning a dark horse candidate emerging from lower than 4th place a year before the primaries.)

Seems like a tough year for their presidential prospects, which I think is why people like Chris Christie are staying out of it. Their best hope is that the economy tanks again.

[Del Tachi]

In order to be competitive in 2012, Republicans need 3 of the following 7.

--The nominee not be Romney, Palin, or Gingrich.  Huckabee is iffy.  A GOP ticket with Daniels, Thune, Barbour, or Christie on the top has the best chance of success.

--The economy to remain sluggish, the unemployment rate must remain above 7.5% and the DOW Jones cannot break 12,500.  Even if the economy does improve marginally by Election Day 2012, the Republicans can still win if there is no coinciding increase in consumer confidence and hence consumer spending.

--A rise in energy, specifically gasoline, prices. 

--The situation in Afghanistan needs to deteriorate to the point that Iraq was at circa Fall/Winter 2005. 

--Iran or North Korea take military action against either Israel or South Korea, respectively.  Or Iran or North Korea test long-range ICMB missiles capable of landing a nuclear warhead on the mainland United States.

--A terrorist attack occur on United States soil and the Obama administration respond to said attack "weakly".

--The national debt continue to increase at FY 2009 levels.

If five or more of those things have happened by Election Day 2012, expect the Republican candidate to win in a walk and Republicans should take the Senate and pick up seats in the House, no matter how unpopular the 112th Congress turns out to be.