Statewide % and National % for both parties

[phk]

These are the correlations for how closely correlated the changes in the Democratic % nationwide are correlated to changes in the % Democrat for each state.

Alabama and Mississippi have opposite correlations largely due to 1964 which is weighing down a lot of the Southern states.

This is 1960 to present.

 PA    0.966067054
 IN    0.95341152
 NM    0.949044516
 MO    0.946832887
 NJ    0.942439247
 MI    0.934318638
 MD    0.933170349
 CO    0.927456992
 NY    0.923773398
 CT    0.919558356
 NE    0.911658126
 DE    0.910226962
 VA    0.910198852
 NH    0.905413893
 WA    0.904983944
 KS    0.901958647
 WI    0.901263071
 NV    0.900218139

 OR    0.89605574
 AZ    0.894099031
 RI    0.87412351
 IL    0.872103429
 HI    0.861837923
 CA    0.860305372
 FL    0.857749611
 TX    0.842579042
 OK    0.837252298
 ID    0.833592726
 IA    0.828201135
 ME    0.824423507
 OH    0.81955975
 VT    0.809179288

 MA    0.796208464
 MN    0.794198757
 NC    0.779418497
 MT    0.77638117
 UT    0.768767821
 KY    0.742380603
 AK    0.705862352

 WV    0.684463347
 WY    0.674054027
 SD    0.641501564
 TN    0.631647735

 AR    0.556386947

 SC    0.476540412
 LA    0.455813242
 GA    0.433122723

 MS    -0.128090695

 AL    -0.250714962

[Nichlemn]

Interesting. There's a pretty clear correlation between low correlations and a trend against the party. I think SD gets skewed by McGovern and to a lesser extent, Dukakis.