Dearborn
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 29, 2010, 11:12:06 AM »

Dearborn went from giving Bush 51.6% of the vote in 2000 to giving him 39.9% of the vote in 2004. As an example of how absurd some of the swings were in presumably Arab precincts, precinct 1 gave Bush 73% of the vote in 2000 and only 12% of the vote in 2004. Talk about alienating a base constituency...

Is there any explanation as to why Arabs liked Bush so much in 2000?
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2010, 11:13:23 AM »

Social conservatism and anti-Communism had Arabs (Muslim and Christian) strongly Republican prior to 2001.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2010, 11:13:55 AM »

Lieberman perhaps a bit as well, though aren't most Dearborn Arabs Christian?
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2010, 11:20:38 AM »

Social conservatism and anti-Communism had Arabs (Muslim and Christian) strongly Republican prior to 2001.

Wow, that's so obvious that it's easy to overlook. I'd still expect Arabs in Dearborn to be fairly Democratic because of their industry though.

This swing reminds me of the gigantic Hasidic swings in New York. Looks like everything balanced out. Kerry lost one group of voters so he could gain another. Except Democrats gained Arabs as a permanent base. Between 2000 and 2006 Dearborn went from giving Stabenow 43.5% to giving her 59.8% with the biggest swings being in Arab precincts.
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Nhoj
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2010, 02:22:10 PM »

Social conservatism and anti-Communism had Arabs (Muslim and Christian) strongly Republican prior to 2001.

Wow, that's so obvious that it's easy to overlook. I'd still expect Arabs in Dearborn to be fairly Democratic because of their industry though.

This swing reminds me of the gigantic Hasidic swings in New York. Looks like everything balanced out. Kerry lost one group of voters so he could gain another. Except Democrats gained Arabs as a permanent base. Between 2000 and 2006 Dearborn went from giving Stabenow 43.5% to giving her 59.8% with the biggest swings being in Arab precincts.
Isnt Spencer Abraham of Arab ancestry?
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2010, 03:23:27 PM »

Social conservatism and anti-Communism had Arabs (Muslim and Christian) strongly Republican prior to 2001.

Wow, that's so obvious that it's easy to overlook. I'd still expect Arabs in Dearborn to be fairly Democratic because of their industry though.

This swing reminds me of the gigantic Hasidic swings in New York. Looks like everything balanced out. Kerry lost one group of voters so he could gain another. Except Democrats gained Arabs as a permanent base. Between 2000 and 2006 Dearborn went from giving Stabenow 43.5% to giving her 59.8% with the biggest swings being in Arab precincts.
Isnt Spencer Abraham of Arab ancestry?

He's Lebanese.
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phk
phknrocket1k
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« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2010, 03:28:39 PM »

Lieberman
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2010, 03:35:31 PM »

Lieberman perhaps a bit as well, though aren't most Dearborn Arabs Christian?

They used to be, but I think these days it's closer to even. I don't think Lieberman had much to do with it, as the Lebanese Christians and most Arabs were Republican before the 2000 election as well (like I said before, for social conservatism and anti-Communist reasons, similar to Cubans or Vietnamese).
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phk
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2010, 03:40:41 PM »
« Edited: December 29, 2010, 04:36:22 PM by phknrocket1k »

Lieberman perhaps a bit as well, though aren't most Dearborn Arabs Christian?

They used to be, but I think these days it's closer to even. I don't think Lieberman had much to do with it, as the Lebanese Christians and most Arabs were Republican before the 2000 election as well (like I said before, for social conservatism and anti-Communist reasons, similar to Cubans or Vietnamese).

Most Dearborn-Detroit Arabs are Lebanese Shi'ites, the largest mosque there is primarily for that community, the Islamic Center of America. There is a concentration of Christians in the Boston-area and spread out all over the US. Most of them are considered White and don't mind that.

As for Muslims Clinton actually did decently with them in 1996 and held high approval ratings throughout the late 1990s because of his intervention with in Kosovo. The swing to Bush was because of Lieberman, from personal experience. I was involved in their communities and Gore was actually polling in third behind Nader sometimes.

Other Muslim ethnicities like Pakistanis swung towards Bush in 2000 as well. But it was basically a given. Had 9/11 not occurred Muslims would have had a similar trajectory and trend that Mormons had but slower. I'v even thought that they'd be hard GOP had 9/11 occurred under Gore/Lieberman's watch.

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Like 2/3rds are economically centrist to conservative too.

Were Arabs as specifically anti-communist as the Cubans and Vietnamese were?

I could see Pakistani-Americans being anti-Soviet before the 1990s to a mattering extent.
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