Minnesota in 2004

[TomAtPitt]

Hi, I was wondering if any of you had any opinions on who is likely to win Minnesota in 2004? Minnesota has traditionally been very heabily Democratic, but Bush came close to Gore there in 2000, and in 2002 the Republicans won big victories carrying both the Gubernatiorial and Senatorial races. Any thoughts on whether this State might go Republican in 2004? Also, does anyone know if Minnesota is similar to the Great Lakes States economically(rust belt, favorable circumstances to Gephardt)?

[TomAtPitt]

You're right that Minnesota has been gradually trending to the right.  The trends most noticeable are the  following:  Older voters are the most heavily Democratic (Humphrey and Mondale people) and are reaching the end of their lives; the Iron Range in Northeast MN is heavily Democrat but casts a much smaller percentage of the statewide vote than 20 years ago; the Minneapolis suburbs are spreading out far from the city center and are heavily Republican; and rural areas, once fairly receptive to Democrats, are becoming more conservative.
The other factor is that the state's Democrat party (called Democrat Farmer Labor) is pretty much controlled by urban liberals and are increasingly out of step with the rest of the state.  IMO Bush has a very good chance of carrying the state in 2004.  He needs to blunt the Democrat trend in the older suburbs though. (As a side note, a poll 3 weeks before the 2000 election showed Bush with a 1 pt. lead.  This forced Gore to spend funds here to hold the state, which cost him resources elsewhere)

So is Minessota not really much of a "rust-belt" Great-Lakes state with a heavy labor presence that Gephardt could take advantage of?

[TomAtPitt]

I think Nader will do better when Dean tries to move to the middle after the primaries.

You're underestimating Bush's unpopularity in some quarters; the kind of people who would usually vote for a Green Party candidate (we're talking ultra-liberals, environmentalists, etc) absolutely despise him, and would vote for whoever they think is most likely to defeat Bush. I doubt they'll really care where the Dem. candidate stands, even assuming Dean suddenly moves to the middle. They just want Bush out of the White House.

I don't think the anti-Bush vote will win Dean the election, but I do believe it will nullify the threat posed by Nader.

I disagree. The Left-Wing movement wants the USA to withdraw from Iraq, and none of the mainstream Dems support that. That rift is going to prevent to many Far-Left votes from going to the Dems.