France 2012: "Could France Go Even Further Right?"

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know polls conducted 2 years before an election are worth almost nothing, but a recent one gave Le Pen 17% of the vote. If you consider that polling has systematically underestimated the FN vote (they gave Le Pen around 12% in 2002), there are reasons to be worried. However, Le Pen getting to the second round is still somewhat unlikely considering that candidates seem far more solid than they were in 2002. At the time, no candidate broke 20%, and Le Pen was qualified merely because of Jospin's pathetic performance (and he still beat him by less than 1 point). In 2012, the left won't be split as it was in 2002 and Sarkozy has enough personal charisma to secure a strong percentage. Of course things can still change in 2 years, but for now I don't see it coming.

As for the second question, no. Fillon won't run and Sarkozy will run again whatever his approvals are.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Part of the reason Royal lost in 2007 was because of antagonism between various left wing groups. She may have made it to the run-off, but unless the Socialist Party has an open dialogue with the smaller left wing parties to secure their support, Mitterrand will remain the last left wing President of the country.

Left-wing division was really not an issue in 2007, quite exceptionally. Everybody in the left was in an "anybody but Sarkozy" mood, plus remembrances from 2002 were strong and the left feared to be ridiculed once again. Basically everyone except the few far-left loons endorsed Royal.

If divisions might have played some role, it's rather inside the PS, since Royal managed to alienate almost everyone in the party with her "I'm not like them, I'm soo cool !" rhetoric. Yet, the major reason for the 2007 defeat was Royal's utter stupidity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Part of the reason Royal lost in 2007 was because of antagonism between various left wing groups. She may have made it to the run-off, but unless the Socialist Party has an open dialogue with the smaller left wing parties to secure their support, Mitterrand will remain the last left wing President of the country.

It would be best if you talked about subjects you knew at least a bit about, coz this way you're making a fool of yourself. Your tone in that post, which indicates haughty certainty, doesn't help either.

Sorry for the tone, but you don't agree that with so many left of center and left wing candidates in the first round, that their losses didn't turn some of their supporters off from voting for Royal in the run off? France will see another PS or other Liberal as President, but they need to really hone in on the change rhetoric in 2012 to win. Not to mention stress unity among various parties.

The PS isn't liberal yet, though I'm sure it will be in some decades.

The PS is mostly liberal (pro democracy, pro market economy, pro personal freedom). On balance, it's maybe more liberal than the UMP.


And for redcommander, almost everybody on the left voted for Royal because Sarkozy was a strawman. The left just didn't have the numbers to win because she sucked and because Sarko was a decent campaigner.